Wine Country Real Estate Trends in July 2019

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Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate – Wine Country Group Results for July 2019

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate |Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate – Wine Country Group enjoyed 60 closings in July 2019 compared to 43 last July and 33 last month. In July, we closed homes with a total value of $31.2 million compared to $28.5 million last year and $22.3 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by the Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate – Wine Country Group in July was $519,000.  Last July our average selling price was $662,000.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 61 pending sales with a value of $42 million dollars. We have 116 active listings with a value of $104 million dollars.  This is the largest inventory that we have had in the past five years.  Our average listing price is $897,000.

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for July 2019

 Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of July stands at 1,279.  This is 13% ahead of the inventory in July 2018 (1,135) and it is 3% ahead of the inventory last month (1,245).  It is the highest inventory since November 2011.  New sales (499) in Sonoma County in July were 6% ahead of the pace of July 2018 (470) and they were 3% ahead of the pace last month (484).  There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 44 (Windsor) to 102 (Healdsburg) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 59 days.  The median price of 464 homes closed in July in Sonoma County was $630,000.  This is slightly below the median price in July 2018 ($636,000).

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,300,000).  There has been a 17% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (376) from 8/1/18 to 7/31/19 compared to 453 closings in the period 8/1/17 to 7/31/18.  Sales in the 8/1/17 to 7/31/18 period were influenced by fire victims purchasing replacement homes after the 10/17 fires.  The inventory of luxury homes (326) is 36% ahead of the inventory in July 2018 (241 homes).  The pace of new sales (43) in July this year is equal to the pace of a year ago (43) and it is also equal to the pace last month (43).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 78 days this July compared to 73 days a year ago. This compares to 59 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in July. There is a 7.6 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.6 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (41) in Cloverdale at the end of July is 14% above the inventory in July of 2018 (36).  It is 5% ahead of the inventory of last month (39). There were 17 new sales in Cloverdale in July.  This compares to 9 sales in July 2018 and 12 new sales last month. There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 12 homes that closed in July was 47 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 32 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This is 19% ahead of the inventory (27) a year ago and it is 7% ahead of the inventory last month (30).  There were 3 new sales in July compared to 4 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 11 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 13 homes that closed in July was 100 days.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 136 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is the highest inventory in Healdsburg in the past eight years.  It is 55% above the inventory in July 2018 (88) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (135).  New sales in July (20) were equal to the pace of sales in July 2018 (20) and they were slightly below the sales pace last month (21). The months of available inventory is now 6.8 months based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 20 homes that closed in July was 102 days.

Oakmont: There are 51 homes available in Oakmont at the end of July.  This is essentially equal to the inventory in July 2018 (50) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (58).  New sales (19) are 27% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (15) and are equal to the pace of last month (19).  There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $600,000 for the 17 homes that closed in July.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 60 days.

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of July (112) is 8% ahead of the inventory in July 2018 (104) and it is 9% ahead of the inventory last month (103).  This is the highest inventory in Petaluma in the past seven and a half years.  There were 59 new sales for the month. This is equal to the 59 sales in July 2018 and it is slightly below the 61 new sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 1.9 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 55 homes that closed in July was $740,000. This is 9% ahead of the median price last July ($680,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 46 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of July (66) is 35% ahead of the inventory in July 2018 (49) and it is 50% ahead of the inventory last month (44).   There were 46 new sales in Rohnert Park in July.  This is 35% above the 34 sales in July 2018 and it is 10% ahead of the 42 sales last month.  There is 1.4 month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($554,000) of the 38 homes and condominiums that closed in July is slightly below the median price a year ago ($559,000). Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 48 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July (91) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 21% above the level of July 2018 (75) and it is 11% ahead of the inventory last month (82).  This is the highest inventory in the Russian River area in the past seven years. There were 31 new sales for the month of July.  This sales pace is about equal to the pace in July 2018 (32) and it is also equal to the pace last month (31).  There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year.  The median was $457,000 for the 27 homes that closed in July.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 59 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-two percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of July (409) is 12% below the inventory of a year ago (464) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (414).  New sales in July (202) are 10% ahead of the pace of last July (184) and they are 14% ahead of the pace last month (177). There is a two months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 181 homes closed in July in Santa Rosa was $585,000 compared to $592,000 a year ago – a slight decrease.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 57 days.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Sebastopol (83) is slightly below the level of July 2018 (85) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (82).  There were 28 new sales for the month of July.  This is about equal to the pace in July 2018 (29) and it is also equal to the pace last month (27). There is a 3.0 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 28 homes that closed in Sebastopol in July went from listing to pending in 54 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (174) at the end of July in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 69% above the inventory last July (103) and it is 6.5% below the inventory of last month (186).  There were 47 new sales for the month. This is 6% below the 50 sales in July 2018 and it is equal to the 47 sales last month. There is a 3.7 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  Sixty-six percent (114 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 34% of the new sales (16) in July were priced at over $1,000,000.

I recently wrote the following for a client about high-end properties in the Sonoma Valley:

“The top quartile market is soft in the Sonoma Valley on a year over year basis.  As of the end of July, the top quartile of available listings in the Valley begins at $3,000,000.   There are 41 available residential properties priced at $3,000,000, or more, at the present time compared to 174 available properties in the total market.  A year ago, at the end of July 2018, there were 26 available homes priced at $3,000,000 or more.   So, the inventory has grown by 57%.   Closings of homes in this price range have dropped from 22 in the twelve months from 8/1/17 to 7/31/18 compared to 10 closings in the twelve months from 8/1/18 to 7/31/19.  So, the number of closings has dropped by 55%.

There is positive news in that there were five new sales in the top quartile in the past two months.   This results in 13.7 months of inventory.  That means if one listed their home in this price range today, they might expect that it would sell in about 14 months.  There was a 26% decrease in top quartile inventory from June to July – they dropped from 53 homes to 41 homes.  There were three new sales in the month, so the other 9 owners must have decided to withdraw their homes from the market.

Part of the reason for slower sales and growing inventory through the early months of this year likely relates to the rainy weather that persisted here through May.  Buyers were not coming out in the rain.  Now that the weather has improved – sales have also bumped up.  Inventory in this market typically drops dramatically after October.  There was a low of 17 units available in January 2019 and 13 in January 2018.  Other reasons for the current soft market in the high end in the Sonoma Valley may relate to traffic concerns (getting here on Hwy 37) and the simple fact that there may be fewer buyers seeking second homes in these high price ranges.  When they have to pay so much for primary homes in the Peninsula, San Francisco and Marin – perhaps renting second homes is a better option than buying.

The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price of roughly $1,000 per square foot of building area”.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of July equals 62 properties.  This is 9% ahead of the inventory in July 2018 (57) and it is 3% ahead of the 60 homes last month.  There were 23 new sales for the month. This is 28% below the pace of sales in July 2018 (32) and it is 26% below the pace of last month (31).  There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 30 homes that closed in July in Windsor was 44 days. The median price ($675,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in July is 8% ahead of the median price a year ago ($625,000).

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July is 530 properties.  This is 2% ahead of the number of lots in July 2018 (519) and it is essentially equal to the number of available lots last month (533).  Going back as far as we have MLS records (2000) there has never been more lots for sale in Sonoma County.  There were 39 new lot sales in July.  This is 11% below the pace of sales in July 2018 (44) and it is 5% below the pace of lot sales last month (41).  There is a 13.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 41 lots closed in July was 141 days and the median price was $210,000 – 28% below the median price a year ago ($290,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of July is 90 homes.  This is 80% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in July 2018 (50) and it is 7% ahead of the number of available homes last month (84).  There were 40 new mobile home sales in July.  This is 5% ahead of the pace of sales in July 2018 (38) and it is 5% below the pace of sales last month (42).  There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 36 mobile homes closed in July was 75 days and the median price was $145,000.  This median price is 14% below the median price of $168,000 in July 2018.

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of July (483) is 26% ahead of the inventory in July 2018 (385) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (478).  This is the highest inventory in Napa County in the past seven years.  49% of the inventory in Napa County (239 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (126) are 8% below the pace of last year (137) and are 13% below the 145 sales last month.  There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 63 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 131 homes closed in July in Napa County ($681,000) was 3% below the median price of a year ago ($700,000).

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,300,000 in Napa County at this time.  The number of closings (64) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County for the period 8/1/18 to 7/31/19 compared to 60 closings in the period 8/1/17 to 7/31/18.  There were 120 luxury homes in inventory at the end of July 2019 compared to 94 at the end of July 2018.  There were 4 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 30 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 3.8 months supply for the County as a whole.

American Canyon:  There were 22 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in American Canyon. This is 19% below the inventory a year ago (27) and it is one unit ahead of the supply last month (21).  New sales (20) are 43% ahead of the pace of last year (14) and are 33% ahead of the 15 sales last month.  There is just a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 56 days. The median price of the 21 homes that closed in American Canyon in July ($575,000) was 10% below the median price of a year ago ($637,000).

Napa:  Fifty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There were 258 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in the City of Napa. This is a 25% ahead of the supply at the end of July 2018 (206) and it is 4% ahead of the inventory at the end of last month (249). This is the highest inventory in the City of Napa for any month in the past seven years.  New sales (83) were 18% below the pace of July 2018 (101) and they were 19% below the pace of last month (102). There is a 3.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 95 closings last month was 60 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in July was $680,000. This is 3% below the median price of the homes closed in July 2018 ($703,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of July (161) is 30% higher than the level of 121 in July 2018 and it is 4% below the level last month (167).  There were 17 new sales in the month compared to 20 a year ago and 27 last month.  There is now a 9.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month was 95 days.  Approximately 45% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (73 homes). There was one luxury home (price in excess of $2,300,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and two new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Angwin was 14 homes. This is 30% below the level of July 2018 (20) and it is 22% below the inventory last month (18).  There were two new sales for the month of July compared to two a year ago and two last month.  The average asking price of the 14 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,473,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of July is 46 homes.  This is 35% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in July 2018 (34) and it is 15% below the number of available homes last month (54).  There were 12 new mobile home sales in July.  This is 14% below the pace of sales in July 2018 (14) and it is 29% below the pace of sales last month (17).  There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 15 mobile homes closed in July was 118 days and the median price was $160,000.  This median price is slightly below the median price of $165,000 in July 2018.

Ukiah, Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Ukiah was 58 homes.  It is 7% above the level of July 2018 (54) and it is 12% below the inventory last month (66).  There were 24 new sales for the month of July.  This is 41% ahead of the number of sales in July 2018 (17) and it is equal to the sales last month (24).  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 22 homes that closed in the Ukiah in July was $382,000. This is 3% below the median price of the homes closed in July 2018 ($395,000).

Marin County:  Marin County’s inventory (511 homes) fell 25% from the high of 587 homes last month.  Sales were down 17.5% from last month creating a 2.1 months supply.  The appreciation rate on a year over year basis is down 4%.