Prior Posts – 2008

Ac-cent-tchu-ate the Positive – As many of our agents found out in the past few days, I woke up on Monday morning wondering how to look at our business and market moving into the last quarter of the year. Suddenly, the song “Ac-cent-tchu-ate the Positive” came to mind. When I found the lyrics on line – it was just what I was feeling like:
“You’ve got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don’t mess with Mister In-Between”

It’s that Mister In-Between that is the biggest nemesis. Sitting on the fence will get you no where.

Johnny Mercer wrote this song in 1944. We had been at war for three years. It was the year of D-Day and there was much uncertainty, but also, much solidarity. Sounds familiar. In any case, I like Doctor John’s version of the song and will be playing it over and over in my mind, if not on my iPod.

Wine Country Group Update for October, 2008: For October, 2008, The Wine Country Groups closings were ahead of the rate for 2007, 60 closings vs. 46 a year ago. New sales for the month (46) were 18% ahead of October, 2007, and new listings (44) were 46% ahead of October, ’07. A rather startling figure in October was 30 canceled sales. We basically had to sell two for everyone that succeeded. Our available inventory numbers 212 listings vs. 235 at this time a year ago. Our average listing value is down from $885,400 in November, 2007 to $689,000 this year. We have 82 open escrows going into November vs. 62 a year ago, but the dollar volume is less than a year ago, $52,000,000 compared to $69,000,000. In a positive vein, we have reduced our overhead by approximately 1/3 from it’s high in 2005, so we can be, and are, profitable at these lower sales volumes.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. Our Napa office business is 153% ahead of 2007 on a year to date basis compared to our Napa based competitors whose businesses are minus 7%, minus 18%, plus 13% and minus 24% on a year to date comparative basis. For firms based in Napa County, we are now the third largest in unit production over the past twelve months. Cheri Stanley, in our Napa office, is the highest producing agent based in the Napa Valley with 72 units and $25.6 million in dollar volume in the past twelve months.

October, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Napa County (902) were equal to last month, but it is 10% below the inventory (1,007) at this time last year. New sales (95) and closed escrows (107) were well ahead of the pace of a year ago (67 and 66, respectively). The sale of bank owned properties (REOs) is strongly influencing the current market. Of the 107 closed sales in October, 2008, 60% of them were distressed sales (either bank owned, in foreclosure or “short sales” where the lender accepts less than full payment for their loan). In American Canyon, 23 of the 25 closed sales fell into the distressed sale category. The median price of homes closed in October in Napa County was $311,500 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $535,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Something that I referred to previously as “a tale of two markets”. It is expected that this will continue well into 2009, and perhaps beyond that.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: New sales in the St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) were up from a month ago (September, 2008) when there were 4 new sales. In October, there were 10 new sales and 8 closings. This compares to 12 new sales and 8 closings in October, 07. Up Valley inventory of unsold homes stands at 187 homes in October, 25% higher than in October, ’07. The market in Up Valley can still be described as “sluggish” and “selective”.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (2,354) in Sonoma County at the end of October was 21% lower than a year ago. New sales (532) in October, ’08 were consistent with last month and were 125% ahead of the pace in October, ’07 (235). Of the 592 closed sales in October, ’08, 395, or 67%, were distressed sales. The median price of homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $290,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $481,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Also “a tale of two markets” expected to continue well into 2009, and perhaps beyond that.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (234) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of October ’08 was 15% below that for the period of October, 2007 (274). There were 30 new sales for the month (compared to 25 a month ago and 15 in October ’07). Of the 33 closed sales in October, ’08, 13, or 39%, were distressed sales. This compares to 67% on a county wide basis. The median price of homes closed in October in the Sonoma Valley was $345,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $537,500 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Also, “a tale of two markets”.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (116) in Healdsburg at the end of October was equal to that of September and was 13% below the 133 homes available in October, ’07. New sales (15) and closed escrows (20) compared to 8 and 5, respectively, in October, 2007, so the market is picking up in Healdsburg.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (124) in Windsor at the end of October was continuing to decline over the level in the past few months and was 33% lower than that of October a year ago (184). New sales were steady at 30 units compared to 29 last month. They were significantly higher than the 10 new sales in October a year ago. Of the 30 closed sales in October, ’08, 21, or 70% were distressed. The median price of homes closed in October in Windsor was $370,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $382,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. These two numbers are uncharacteristically close so there is less of “a tale of two markets” than we see in other parts of the region.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (91) in October, 2008 climbed from 85 units a month ago, and remains well below the 108 units available at this time in October, 2007. New sales and closings have improved over the past few months at 15 to 18 respectively. Of the 18 homes that closed in October, 12 of them were distressed sales. The median price of homes closed in October in Cloverdale was $265,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $450,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. Again, “a tale of two markets” that is expected to extend well into 2009 or beyond.

Solano Trends: Solano County is somewhat of a bridge between the North Bay and the Central Valley. The real estate market is closer to the Central Valley market with the large number of distressed sales. Inventory of homes and condominiums at the end of October (2684) was 19% lower than a year ago. New sales (621) were 252% ahead of the pace in October, 2007. Of the 514 homes that closed in October, 495 of them were distressed. That represents 96% of the closings. The median price of homes closed in October in Solano County was $255,000 for the distressed sale segment of the market and $325,000 for the “conventional” segment of the market. In comparison, a more affluent market, Marin County, had only 30% of it’s sales in October represented by distressed sales and the variance between the median price of distressed sales and conventional sales was $392,000 compared to $850,000. Tales of two markets in very diverse markets.

Please contact any of our Wine Country agents for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

Welcome to our new Lake County sales agent: Sally Kros has joined Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the Wine Country Group. An established Lake County agent tells me: “…you sure got a good agent with Sally! She is a very nice lady and is very well respected here in Lake County”. We agree. Sally can be found in her Kelseyville office at 9030 Highway 175, her phone numbers are: Cell – 707 245 8019 and Office – 707 279 9488 and her e-mail address is [email protected]. Sally welcomes referrals – and we welcome her on board.

Welcome, too, to new agents in our Napa office: Art Bowen, Jannette Hall, Sally Kalaveras, Ida Clark and Lark Raymond.

REO/Short Sale Forum: Wine Country Group agents will attend a “REO/Short Sale Forum” this coming Friday, 11/21, at the Kenwood Depot in Kenwood beginning at 11:30. The agenda will include:
Jeremy Olsen, NorBAR legal counsel on industry wide issues
The Top Six Things you need to know to get your buyer client qualified in today’s mortgage market
Counseling re: Deed in Lieu/ Short Sale/Foreclosure
Review of new company policies
Open sharing and idea exchange

Holiday Cheer:  All agents, staff and management are invited to Frank Howard Allen Realtor’s Holiday Party to be held on Wednesday, December 3, from 4PM to 7PM at the Club at McInnis Park, 350 Smith Ranch Road, San Rafael.  We are grateful to Brennie and Larry Brackett for hosting this event for the entire company.  Please RSVP to your Office Admistrator, or to 415-898-2545 x 126, by November 20. 

Closings: Closings for the period from 11/8 thru 11/14 include: Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); Mara Kahn (Sonoma); Jane and Ron Pavelka (Cloverdale); Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); Aimee Greco (Napa); and Steve and Marla Ericson (St. Helena). David Barker of our Napa Office had two sales during this period. Congratulations to all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the past week include Sheila Kelly, Roger Olson and Gregg McCaw and . Best wishes to all!

Veterans Day: Another real estate executive, Tom Tognoli of Intero Real Estate Services, highlighted Veterans Day in his weekly update today. He sites the definition that “A veteran is someone who, at one point in their life, wrote a blank check made payable to The United States of America for an amount of “up to and including my life”. I find that a powerful thought and it gives me pause to wish all veterans, and current service men and women, safety and peace in their lives.

Frank Howard Allen Wine Country Group REO and Short Sale Forum:

We will be having a REO and Short Sale Forum for our Wine Country Group agents on Friday, 11/21 from 11:30 am to 1:30 pm, at the Kenwood Depot, 314 Warm Springs Rd., Kenwood. If you are handling REO or Short Sale transactions, your attendance is mandatory at this meeting. If you are not handling these transactions, you are still welcome to attend. The meeting will be in three parts:

11:35 to 12:15: Jeremy Olsen, legal counsel for the North Bay Association of Realtors, will be providing his perspective on the challenges that these transactions bring to us as sales agents and to our industry in general. He will also be available to answer your questions regarding NorBAR’s and CAR’s experience with these transactions.

12:15 to 12:45: A review and discussion of the recently announced policies and procedures that our company has adopted regarding REO and Short Sale transactions.

12:45 to 1:30: An open sharing and idea exchange regarding “best practices” relating to REO/Short Sale transactions.

The forum is a “brown bag” affair, so bring a sandwich and/or piece of fruit. We will have water and soft drinks available.

Please RSVP to your office administrator by 11/20 so that we can know how many chairs to set up.

In a separate matter, Cheri Stanley of our Napa office is organizing a brain storming/idea exchange session for agents in the Napa Valley who are handling REOs and Short Sales. This will take place at First American Title Co. at noon on Wednesday, 11/19. If you have an interest in attending this, please let me know. Cheri hopes to make this a monthly event while we are still dealing with the foreclosure and short sale market.

Texting Listing “Solution”: We are exploring a texting solution for listings that has an ID on a sign rider which an individual can enter into their PDA and receive back an entire copy of the MLS public details including photos. The listing agent is notified of the contact and given the individual’s text address for future farming activities. This service will cost agents $8.00/sign rider/month – i.e., 5 different sign riders equals $40.00/month. Can you please let me know if you are interested in this program and if would commit to pay for the service for a one year contract term. Thanks, and also let me know if you have any questions.

Closings: Closings for the period from 11/3 through 11/7 include: Robyn Makurak (Sonoma); Herb Heil (Sonoma); Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); Erin George (Sonoma); and Deke DeKay and Diane Harris (Healdsburg). The following agents had two sales during this period: Frank Trozzo (Napa) and Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg). Congratulations to all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the past week include Mechel Boucher, Susan Irvine and Jana Jones. Best wishes to all!

Things That Make Real Estate Sales Rewarding: Visit this link to see one of those things that makes real estate sales rewarding. This is a photo of Curtis Kind in our Cloverdale office with the handprints and words of thanks from the children who attend a local day care school. Curtis helped the owner of the day care facility find a new location – and they gave him this great poster as a big thank you. If you have “things that make real estate sales rewarding”, share them with me and I’ll pass them around.

Update to Policies and Procedures: Since roughly sixty percent of the transactions in the region in the past six months have been REO or Short Sale transactions (distressed sales), and since we are likely to continuing having them moving forward into 2009, and since not many agents have worked with these transactions in the past, we are adopting the following new policies:

REO and Short Sale Policies:

The pre-selling of REO/Short Sale listings is creating complaints from other agents and, more importantly, complaints from the public who believe that we are manipulating the sales process. To avoid this, the following policies shall apply to company REO and short sale transactions effective 11/1/08:

1. For REO and short sale listings, following the listing of the property in the MLS, there shall be a minimum of a forty eight hour waiting period prior to submitting an offer to the lender/owner that is generated on a dual agency basis (in-house offer). This will accommodate the proper exposure of the property to the agent community and the public. If a third party offer is presented from an agent outside the company within the 48 hour waiting period, and the lender’s policy is for us to submit offers as they are received, both the third party offer and the in-house offer may be submitted simultaneously.

2. Listing agents for REO/short properties may not undertake pre-listing (after a listing has been assigned but prior to obtaining a final listing agreement and price) marketing activities. In the normal course of discussing upcoming listings with colleagues, a listing agent may disclose the coming piece of business and potentially show it to in-house colleagues, but, no advertising may be undertaken, a sign shall not be placed, nor shall flyers be distributed on the property until the listing agreement is received from the lender. Lock boxes may be placed on the property, per lender direction for pre-listing vendor access, but no third party showings shall be undertaken until the property is officially listed and placed in the MLS. Any offers generated through the pre-exposure of the property to in-house agents shall be subject to the 48 hour waiting period described above.

3. The listing agent’s manager/broker shall be advised immediately if an offer is presented that involves either dual agency or single agent dual agency. No dual agency or single dual agency offer shall be submitted to the REO/Short sale owner without first reviewing the offer with the responsible manager/broker.

4. If multiple offers are received on REO/Short Sale listings, all offers shall be submitted to the lender unless they are patently frivolous. If an offer is going to be excluded from presentation, the agent shall review the details of this with your manager/broker as soon as possible. In no event, shall a Short Sale seller receive proceeds from an offer, in or out of escrow, unless approved in writing, in advance, by the lender(s) involved.

We will be working to see that something similar to these standards is adopted by the other firms in our market place with whom we are working.

A Billion: A friend based this by me the other day. I haven’t checked the math, but…

How many zeros are in a billion?
The next time you hear a politician (Republican or Democrat) use the word ‘billion’ in a casual manner, think about this. A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into some perspective in one of it’s releases.
A. A billion seconds ago it was 1959.
B. A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.
C. A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
D. A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet.
E. A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.

Now that the election is over – let’s see if we can back off on some of those billions.

Steve Harney: Thanks to Phyllis Brookshire for sending along her notes from Steve Harney’s presentation last week at Allen Tate’s Fall Convention in Raleigh, N. C. Some highlights are:
“The US government is “all in” betting on the housing market to bring the economy back. And we make our living in the housing market. 2009 should be a very good year”.
“How are you perceived by your clients? You need to be the expert. You have to know your stuff well enough to teach it, not just know it. And probably most importantly, it is our obligation to deliver the truth, not good news or bad news, but the truth to our clients”.
“For buyers, the bottom is here. Take advantage of current mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are expected to rise in the coming year. Let’s look at payments: $400,000 house @ 6% = $2,398.20 monthly payment
$375,000 house @ 7% = $2,494.88 monthly payment
Buyers are losing money “waiting for the bottom”.
“And what a good time to move up. If you are in a $300,000 home and take a 10% hit, you give up $30,000. If you move up to a $400,000 home and it is priced with a 10% savings, you save $40,000. Your buyer is $10,000 to the good!”
“We have to manage fear (low confidence) with our clients:
Step 1: Make them feel significant; I care; Paddle out to them to help them face to face.
Step 2: Make them feel safe; Tell them to hold onto your life raft.
Step 3: Make them feel certain; Tell them the plan.
You cannot skip to step 3. You have to work through the 3 steps”.

Check out Steve Harney’s website at http://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/

Consumer Confidence: Since I was in the new housing business in Chicago in the early 1970s, I have watched the Consumer Confidence Index as a guide to how the demand for housing is. The Consumer Confidence Index was first established in 1967 and last month, in October, it fell to an all time low. In light of this report, Steps 1, 2 and 3 above make absolute sense to me. With the election completed, and the theme of hope expressed throughout President-elect Obama’s campaign, lets look for last months index to be the bottom and see improvement beginning this month.

Closings: Closings for the period from 10/13 through 10/31 include: Sheila Whitney (Sonoma); Nicki Rector (Healdsburg); Lisa Ehreth (Healdsburg); Felice Torri (Sonoma); Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); David Barker (Napa); Tammi Mazziliano (Napa); Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); Gina Clyde (Sonoma); Ann Amtower (Healdsburg); Randy Haak (Glen Ellen); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); Hank Lane (Healdsburg); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); and Bill Streett (Sonoma). The following agents had two sales during this period: Mike Caselli (Sonoma); Dave Reynolds (Cloverdale); Linda Alioto (St. Helena); Robyn Makurak (Sonoma); Cheri Stanley (Napa) and Sheila Deignan (Sonoma). Jane and Ron Pavelka of our Cloverdale office had three closings and Susan Parker and Doug Del Fava had four closings during this period. Congratulations to all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the past three weeks include Curtis Kind, Steve Ericson, Bob Beckstrom, Hank Lane and Susie Savino. Best wishes to all!

Leadership: I have in my quotations collection this quote from an unknown author: “An effective leader must be a master of two ends of the spectrum: Ideas at the highest level of abstraction and Actions at the most mundane level of detail”.

Through last weekend and the early part of last week we had a group called the Leadership Council visit our firm. There were twelve leaders of real estate companies around the country who took their valuable time to look at our firm and give us constructive feedback about how we can improve. I have to credit them with leadership as described above – they worked very hard and explored a large range of ideas on our behalf. My thanks go out to each of them.

From consolidating our “eight passwords list”, to putting exterior lighting on our Healdsburg listings, to staff and Earl and I being more present in each office on a regular basis – there are small refinements to make, larger changes to undertake and grand ideas to test. We will be working on all of these in the coming months. Thanks, too, to our staff and sales agents who participated in this assessment.

One more thing on leadership and character – In Wednesday’s New York Times, Thomas Friedman wrote an article entitled “Why How Matters”. I encourage each of you to read it. The link is: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/15/opinion/15friedmanhttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/15/opinion/15friedman.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=why%20how%20matters&st=cse&oref=slogin
“How” certainly matters as part of our company culture, and I am very proud of that and how our agents reflect that character.

Company Update: Wine Country Group Update for September, 2008

For the third quarter of 2008, The Wine Country Groups closings were 6% ahead of the rate for 2007. However, with the lower average price of the transactions that we are handling this year, our dollar volume is off by 30% year over year. New sales for the quarter were 76% ahead of the third quarter of 2007, so certainly there are buyers out there. Listings are also ahead of a year ago by 40%. Our available inventory numbers 206 listings vs. 231 at this time a year ago. Our average listing value is down from $900,000 in September, 2007 to $800,000 at the end of September of this year. We have 96 open escrows going into October vs. 67 a year ago, but the dollar volume is closer than the unit numbers, $96,000,000 compared to $67,000,000.

Our Napa office continues to do extremely well, closing 16 sides in September, ’08 compared to 3 a year ago. Nearly all of that volume is bank owned properties, or short sales, and they are doing a great job servicing these demanding accounts. We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets.

September Market Update: Sonoma County: Closed sales in the month of September reached 410 units – 46% more than in September, 2007, and 5% ahead of August, 2008 (392 units). New sales (443) in September, ’08 were 107% ahead of new sales (214) in September a year ago and 10% ahead of the pace (402) in August, ’08. I have not extracted the bank owned and short sale properties from these figures, but my guess is that at least 60% of the activity was in distressed properties. I will be looking into that analysis next week and give you the data.

The inventory of unsold homes (2140) was 23% lower than at this time a year ago when it stood at 2784 units. The county is down to 4.8 month supply of inventory based on new sales compared to a 13 month supply a year ago. So activity is certainly in a positive vein. The price per square foot ($258.00/sf) of sold homes was at it’s lowest point in four years and compared to $354.00/sf a year ago. Again, I have not yet determined the impact of distressed sales on that figure, but I am certain that is significant and that non-distressed sales enjoyed a far higher value than the distressed sales.

Sonoma Valley: Closed sales in the Sonoma Valley totaled 26 in September, 2008 compared to 16 in September, 2007 and 31 in August, 2008. New sales totaled 21 in September ’08 compared to 14 in September ’07 and 27 in August, ’08. The inventory of unsold homes totaled 202 in September compared to 255 a year ago – a 26% decrease. Within the inventory and sales, there is a large discrepancy between the average asking price ($1,000,000) and the average selling price ($558,000). This probably indicates that most of the sales are occurring at the lower end of the market and that the higher priced inventory is taking longer to sell. The median price of sold homes was $380,000 in September, 2008.

Healdsburg: There was a small positive bump in the Healdsburg market in that there were 13 new sales in September, 2008, compared to just 5 a year ago and 9 in August, 2008. Let’s hope that that trend continues. Unsold inventory remains ahead of a year ago (107 v. 101) bucking the overall trend in the County. The median price of sold homes remained the highest in the County at $528,000.

Cloverdale: Activity improved in Cloverdale in the month of September, 2008. There were 13 closed sales compared to 4 in September, ’07 and 6 in August, ’08. New sales also totaled 13 compared to 7 in September, ’07 and 11 in August, ’08. The inventory of unsold homes is down to 74 units compared to 106 a year ago and the market contains a 5.7 month supply of inventory based on the current pace of sales. The price per square foot of homes sold ($188/sf) compared to $246/sf a year ago and $177/sf last month.

Napa: The city of Napa closed sales (84) in September, 2008, were at a pace 75% ahead of the 48 homes that closed in September, ’07. New sales (96) in September, ’08 were 78% of the pace in September ’07 and equal to the pace of August, 2007. Inventory is down to 812 units – 10% lower than the 902 units that were available in September, 2007. There is an 8.5 months supply of unsold homes based on the new sales in September. The price per square foot ($320/sf) of sold homes in September, ’08 was 15% lower than the price per square foot ($376/sf) a year ago, but I have not factored out the distressed sales which are sure to have an impact.

American Canyon: Though we don’t have an office in American Canyon, we were the number one firm in market share in September, 2008. There were 26 closings in the month of September compared to 9 a year ago and 19 in August, ’08. There were 23 new sales in the month compared to 7 a year ago and 26 last month. Inventory is down to 120 units compared to 177 a year ago, but well ahead of the 98 last month. We believe that 100% of the sales in American Canyon in September were bank owned or short sale properties. I will do an analysis on the inventory next week to see how many of the properties for sale are distressed. The price per square foot of the sold properties has been steady over the past four months at $168/sf. It seems to have reached “the floor”.

Up Valley, Napa Co:  Like Healdsburg, Up Valley is the one of the two Wine Country markets where inventory remains above a year ago (181 to 160) and sales are slow.  There were 9 closings in September, 2008, compared to 14 in August, ’08 and 6 in September, ’07.  The average “Days on Market” for the homes that sold in September were 197 – so some older inventory was selling.  The sales price to original list price for these homes was 85%.  There were 5 new sales this past month compared to 15 in August and 8 in September, ’07.  Overall, a very slow time in Up Valley. 

Solano County: We are doing a good deal of business in western Solano County. All the business that we are doing is bank owned properties and the vast majority of all transactions in the county are distressed sales. Closings in September, 2008, 419 units, were 167% ahead of the sales (157) in September, ’07. New sales (536) were 264% ahead of the pace in September, ’07. Inventory was down 19% from a year ago and there is now just a 4.7 month supply of inventory compared to a 13 month supply a year ago. The median price ($261,000) for homes closed in September, ’08 was equal to that in August, ’08, and 31% below that of September, ’07. It will be interesting to see if the pace of foreclosures moderates in Solano County moving into the next few months.

I attended the Economic Summit for Solano County a few weeks ago and here are a few interesting, and sometimes startling, facts from the summit:
1. Construction material costs are down 5.6% over the past year
2. Lumber costs are at down 40% and the lowest in twenty years
3. The City of Fairfield usually issues 700+ housing permits per year. Through the end of August, 2008, they have issued 14 new housing permits.
4. The retail industry (all those discount stores along I-80) is really in the tank. The retail specialists listed a half dozen national retailers that have declared bankruptcy this year and another dozen that are in danger of doing so. I’m thankful not to be in that business!

Webstats: Our internet statistics continue to climb. Our site visits increased to 7,193 for the quarter ended 9/20/08 compared to 6,896 in the 2nd quarter. Visitors to our website came from 35 countries/territories around the world. 30% of our traffic comes from direct traffic, 48% from “referring sites” and 22% from search engines. If you have a property website, be sure to use the built in “Google Analytics” to evaluate your traffic.

Recognition: Lori Greenstein Bremner of our Orion Partners Commercial Property Management operations received the prestigious “State Lead Ambassador” award from the American Cancer Society in a Leadership Summit in Washington D. C. last week. Lori has been at the forefront of advocacy work for the American Cancer Society in California. She is a inspiring leader in this critical area affecting so many families in our towns, state and country. Thanks, Lori, for all that you do.

Closings: As mentioned in the last edition of the Broker Blog, I have some catching up to do on recognizing closings. For the period 9/1 to 10/10, the following agents had closings: First and foremost, Aimee Greco of our Napa office and Richard Hurst of our Cloverdale office had their first closing as FHA-WCG agents – wishing them many more! Other agents with closing include: Dee Grohmann (Healdsburg); Heidi Diamantini (Healdsburg); Mary Beth Foster (Sonoma); Hank Lane (Healdsburg); Michelle Delfino (Healdsburg); Kendra Martin (Sonoma); Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen); Pat Brown (Sonoma); Frank Lazzarotto (Sonoma); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Charlene Schanzer (Healdsburg); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Debbie Hendershot (Healdsburg); Erin George (Sonoma); Joan Harrington (Sonoma); Mari Johnson (Sonoma); Randy Haak (Glen Ellen); and Felice Torri (Sonoma). The following agents had two closings during this period: Joyce Davison (Sonoma); Svetlana Ternovskaya (Napa); Holly-Evans White (St. Helena); Ron and Jane Pavelka (Cloverdale); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma). The following agents had three closings during this period: Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg); Frank Trozzo (Napa); Bill Streett (Sonoma) and Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma). Linda Alioto of our St. Helena office closed four transaction sides during this period. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office had six closings. David Barker of our Napa office had seven closings, and Cheri Stanley of our Napa office closed a whopping ten transactions in this five week period. Congratulations and well done by all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the past week include Allyson Valente and Ryan De Mello.

Memorial: A memorial service for Dorothea Goehring was held on Saturday, October 18 at 2:00 pm at Faith Lutheran Church in Sonoma. Dorothea was a Realtor with Henry for much of the last thirty years – at times, being the top producer in the company. In my experience with Dorothea, she loved her clients and associates in the business, loved a party, and I will always remember her fondly.

A Tale of Two Markets: The article that I produced last month has been picked up by multiple newspapers and business journals. I appreciate the positive response and will continue to analyze this phenomenon in the months ahead. If you didn’t have the chance to read the article – look down to the last broker blog posting.

Company Update:  For August, 2008, The Wine Country Groups closings were ahead of the rate for 2007, 61 closings vs. 46 a year ago. New sales for the month were 27% ahead of August, 2007, and new listings were equal to those of August, ’07. Our available inventory numbers 225 listings vs. 270 at this time a year ago. Our average listing value is down from $935,000 in August, 2007 to $751,000 at the end of August of this year. We have 117 open escrows going into September vs. 65 a year ago, but the dollar volume is closer than the unit numbers, $83,000,000 compared to $59,000,000.

Year to date numbers are reflective of the month. We are ahead in closings, year to date, but slightly behind in dollar volume. Our Napa office has been performing exceptionally, closing 110 sides in 2008 compared to 22 a year ago. The Sonoma office is holding its own with 164 closings compared to 170 last year. And our Kenwood office has been doing well closing 29 sales year to date compared to 21 a year ago.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets and we have now tripled our market share in the Napa Valley on a year over year basis.

Education:   A reminder of the Legal Updates and Bulls-eye trainings. Check with your manager if you are not aware of the details. The company pays for the cost of this training, so take advantage of it!

Website/Technology Updates:   The first official Wine Country Group Property Website v.2 has been posted. Visit www.5050lavender.com to take a look. Note the larger photos, increased photo capacity, new color template, send to friend & bookmark features, and more. Allyson will be working to set up new listing orders as they come in and then will be working to convert those requesting updates of their existing property websites. Great job done by Lourdes, Susie and Allyson in making these new improvements.

Speaking of websites, we have updated the programming to our www.bankprops.net website so that it now contains many, many more listings than previously possible. Thanks to Ally and Lourdes for working with BAREIS and iHomefinders on this update.

Also, coming soon, www.winecountrymobilehomes. com to be a source of searches for those seeking mobile homes across the entire Wine Country. This will be live in a couple of weeks and I will let you know.

One last technology update – we are working with a vendor to provide instant messaging/texting capabilities for our listings. You’re going to love this convenient and tech savvy way for individuals to gain information about your listings – instantaneously while they are parked in front of the house. More to follow soon.

Important stuff! The following three things are important to our escrow and financial staff – they pay the checks, so it is good to keep them happy!
1. Facing Sheets – please send in complete facing sheets. I’ve seen them with no title company, no contact info, no commission figures, etc. We acknowledge that you have to send these in within three days of ratifying a contract, but much of this information is available if you just take a few minutes to complete the form. Thank you.
2. Change of closing date – Lori is always looking at pending closings for company cash flow management. When you know that the closing will be delayed, or if an extension has been negotiated, please send Lori and Regina an e-mail so they can plan accordingly. Thank you.
3. Transaction Logs – the keeping of transaction logs has gotten sloppy. We are told over and over by legal counsel that a complete transaction log will be our best defense in a legal confrontation. E-mail provides a great means to have a running log, but if you are submitting e-mail messages, please include those with responses from the client. Thank you.

Closings: We have had a bunch of closings since the last Broker Blog update, but I do not have access to those lists as I am preparing this today – so, I will recap all in the next update.

Birthdays: Leo Merle is celebrating the milestone of his 70th birthday this week. Happy birthday to Leo as well as Howard Powell, Lori Greenstein Bremner and Monica Steensma.

Travel Plans: On a final note, Diane and I will be attending a Marketing and Technology Expo the balance of this week being presented by “Real Trends” in Denver. We will have both cell phone and e-mail access. Have a great week!

In
the comments of the blog – you can see Lois’ inquiry. My premise is
that in markets that are heavily influenced by REO/Short Sale sales,
there are two different markets – the REO/Short Sale market dictated by
large corporate lenders trying to clear their balance sheets, and the
conventional market – where the discretion of the buyer and seller
creates a different, in my view, more “market driven” dynamic. I
believe that we need to watch this dichotmy over the coming months.

Instructions for life: A month or so ago, I came across a twenty point list in my “Quotations” file that I think is pretty good. Here are the last of the 20 items.

I N S T R U C T I O N S F O R L I F E (4th bunch)

16. Once a year, go someplace you’ve never been before.

17. Remember that the best relationship is one in which your love for each other exceeds your need for each other.

18. Judge your success by what you had to give up in order to get it

19. Call your mother (or your father).

20. Approach love and cooking with reckless abandon.

A Tale of Two Markets: I recently completed the following article. I’d enjoy your comments (there is a comment box at the very bottom of the blog, or e-mail me directly).

A Tale of Two Markets or How the Sale of REO and Short Sale Properties is Distorting the Median Value of the Average Home

In the month of July, 50% of the single family homes that sold in Sonoma County, CA, were either bank owned homes (REOs) or short sales wherein the lender on the property received less than the amount due on the loan. In industry parlance, short sales are “REOs waiting to happen” as these homes are generally in the foreclosure process. These are what are called “distressed sales”.

The REO/Short sale home sales for the month had a median price of $320,000 The non REO/Short sale, or “conventional” sales had a median price of $530,000. So my premise is that we are dealing with two real estate markets and that the market cannot be whitewashed with one brush.

People are always asking me how the market is and how the value of homes are holding up. If the median price of all home sales is used, the market is off 32% in value from a year ago and off 36% from the median price in July, 2005, generally considered near the “peak” of the market. If the median price of the conventional home sales is used in this comparison, the market is off just 8% from a year ago and 13% from the peak period of 2005. This is important information. We should not all be suffering that our homes are losing their value and that we are getting poorer by the day when it is banks and institutions who are creating these huge discounts to get these assets off their books and to get out from under being landlords of vacant and typically distressed real estate. They are taking the losses, not the typical homeowner.

I never like comparing the general single family home market to the stock market, but I know that there are a lot of stock portfolios that are off more than 13% over the past three years – just look at the financial industry stocks alone.

I’m finding that appraisers are not taking into account the anomaly that this REO/Short sale “selling binge ” is creating in the market. Because a bank desperately wants to sell an asset on my block, does it mean that my home will sell for that much less, or is worth that much less? I don’t believe so. I had a vendor in my house the other day and he said “this place will never lose it’s value, it’s in such a great location”. If you are in a transaction and the appraiser is not making a distinction between these two markets, I believe that it is up to us as owners, or real estate professionals, to help them with the analysis. The appraising industry is pretty rigid in it’s approach to value, and I don’t believe we have encountered a market such as this one in our lifetimes.

I’ve seen homes that were purchased in 2004 sell in 2008 for more than they cost in 2004 because they are very desirable. I’ve seen a home offered at $4,200,000 receive an offer within two weeks for $4,200,000 because it was very desirable to that buyer. Same with a home listed for $3,300,000 that got an offer of $3,100,000 within the first week of being on the market. One might call these “discretionary” sales and purchases and they generally remained unaffected by the “other” market for REO/Short sale properties.

So my counsel to home owners is that your home may be worth more than you’re thinking, or at least more than you are being told by the media or the appraisal industry. At any one time, a small, small fraction of the housing stock (approximately 1.4% in the Sonoma County in the month of July) is on the market. Does that small amount of activity dictate the value of my home when I’m not planning to sell for five years? Not to any degree that I’m going to worry about. If, on the other hand, I want to sell next week and there are three bank owned properties for sale on my block, well, I’m going to have to reduce my price to compete with those distressed sales. If I can hold on, maybe I might rent the house out if I can afford to, the rental market is strong right now. Otherwise, I’ll sit tight for now.

Don’t be distressed by the headlines, your personal situation is likely extremely different from the bank who owns the house down the block. I suggest you speak with a local Realtor who knows the ins and outs of the local market if you are concerned about the value and marketability of your home. It’s really a tale of two markets.

Launch of Updated Property Websites: You can order the new property websites for your new listings beginning today. The order form will be updated by Lourdes by the end of the week, but in the meantime, fill out the current order form and put in the comments that you desire the new templates. Twenty one choices, larger images, unlimited photos, vertical photo options, and more. Great stuff, and all at no agent cost!

Loan Modification Assistance: Businesses are springing up to help borrowers with their modification process. Some seem a little more “above board” than others, for example check out www.consumerprotectioninstitute.com.

iHomefinder – IDX Provider Update: Here are some updated stats from the real estate search engine portion of our website which is managed by iHomefinders –

General Traffic
• 2405 new visitors
• 2483 searches
• 23791 properties viewed

Your average site visitor conducted 3 searches and viewed 10 listings
• Activity on your site is UP compared to last month
• You are in the top 2.0% of our most active Web sites on a nationwide basis

We distributed 16 new leads to our agents from last month’s activity.

Closings: The following agents also enjoyed closings between 8/18 and 8/31: Carol Lexa (Healdsburg); Tammy Owens (Sonoma); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma): Diane Harris and Deke DeKay (Healdsburg); Frank Trozzo (Napa); Corrie Sterbentz (Sonoma); Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen); Dmitra Sutsos (Sonoma); and Darlene Riddle (Healdsburg). The following agents closed two sides during this period: David Barker (Napa); Ann Amtower (Healdsburg); and Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg). Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office closed three transactions during this period. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office closed seven transactions and Cheri Stanley of our Napa office closed a mighty nine sides over this two week period. Well done, and congratulations to all!

Instructions for life: A month or so ago, I came across a twenty point list in my “Quotations” file that I think is pretty good. I don’t know where I got it, but I’d like to share five points in each of my next four blog updates.

I N S T R U C T I O N S F O R L I F E (3rd bunch)

11. Live a good, honorable life. Then when you get older and think back, you’ll be able to enjoy it a second time.

12. A loving atmosphere in your home is the foundation for your life. Do all you can to create a tranquil, harmonious home.

13. In disagreements with loved ones, deal only with the current situation. Don’t bring up the past.

14. Share your knowledge. It’s a way to achieve immortality.

15. Be gentle with the earth.

Wine Country Group Update for July, 2008: For July, 2008, The Wine Country Group’s closings were behind the rate of 2007, but ahead of the rate of 2006. The month was buoyed by 26 closings in our Sonoma Valley offices and 19 in our Napa office. New sales for the month were 37% ahead of July, 2007, and new listings were 50% ahead of July, ’07, so we should have strong months ahead.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets and we have now tripled our market share in the Napa Valley on a year over year basis. We have been extremely active in the REO (bank owned properties) market out of our Napa office. On a year to date basis, our closing are up nearly 5 times (nearly 500%) while our competitors based in Napa have seen their year to date year over year business fall an average of 25%. With the organizational and sales skills that we are building in this market, we look to hold onto our gains as the market transitions to a more traditional one over the next few years. In the meantime, we know that there are a lot more REO properties in the pipeline.

If you might have an interest in bank owned properties, you can visit our website: www.bankprops.net, which identifies our current available listings.

Updates to Property Websites: We remain committed to providing great professional websites for our listings at no cost to our agents. We are launching Phase 2 of our property websites with many great improvements on 9/1. Here is a sampling of the upgrades:
1. Significantly larger primary images – you know that “a picture is worth a thousand words”.
2. No limit on the number of photos. We will keep a minimum of six, and we will not post photos that do not enhance the marketing. But, if you have twenty good photos – you can use them!
3. There are two new primary menu items: “Send to a Friend” and “Bookmark”. We hope that these will get viewers to use your websites more.
4. There is a built in “Flyer Maker” that will provide a default flyer if your Impact Marketing flyer is not yet available.
5. There are seven new templates to give you more choices for your “layout”. And, each comes in three color combinations – that gives you twenty one new options. You can migrate your existing website to a couple of these new templates.
6. There is a new “vertical photo” on the forms pages that gives you a great opportunity to use your vertical photo or crop a horizontal.

Once these enhancements are launched for the property websites, we will next make them for the agent websites. Stay tuned!

July, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis: (Contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive).

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Napa County (807) was stable on a month to month basis, and is 11% below the inventory (906) at this time last year. New sales (109) and closed escrows (93) were well ahead of the pace of a year ago (61 and 67, respectively). There was also a strong increase from the 86 new sales that occurred in June, 2008. The sale of bank owned properties (REOs) is strongly influencing the current market. Of the 98 closed sales in July, 2008, over 50% of them were either bank owned, in foreclosure or “short sales” where the lender accepts less than full payment for their loan. In American Canyon, 26 of the 27 closed sales fell into the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category. The good news in American Canyon is that there is just a 3.4 month supply of unsold inventory and prices have stabilized at about $170 per square foot. The City of Napa had 23 of the 61 closings in July in the bank owned/in foreclosure/short sale category which means that only one of the Up Valley sales were in this category. The median price of homes closed in the City of Napa for July was $450,000.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: New sales in the St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) were up from a month ago (June, 2008) when there were 4 new sales. In July, there were 11 new sales and 9 closings. This compares to 14 new sales and 14 closings in July, 07. Up Valley inventory of unsold homes stands at 175 homes in July, 13% higher than in July, ’07. The market in Up Valley can still be described as “sluggish”.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (2,283) in Sonoma County at the end of July was 11% lower than a year ago. New sales (394) in July, ’08 were consistent with the last two months and were 20% ahead of the pace in July, ’07 (328). Of the 395 closed sales in July, ’07, 241, or 61% were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category. The median price of the homes closed in July, ’07 feel below $400,000 and equaled $286/sf – both four year lows. continued to drop as more REO (bank owned properties) sell and depress that figure. A year ago the median price of sold homes in the County was $600,000. Based on the current pace of sales, the inventory of unsold homes is under a 6 month supply compared to 13.9 months in January of this year.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (206) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of July ’08 was below that for the period of July, 2007 (222). There were 32 new sales for the month (compared to 27 a month ago and 27 in July ’07). Of the 29 homes that closed in July ’08, 11 of them were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category. This is 38% of the closings compared to a 61% figure for the overall county.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (111) leveled off in Healdsburg in July compared to 123 in June and was 26% higher than the 88 homes available in July, ’07. New sales (9) and closed escrows (10) in July were 53% and 38% lower than in July, 2007, so it remains a sluggish market in Healdsburg. Of the 10 homes that closed in July ’08, 3 of them were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (138) in Windsor at the end of July was consistent with the level over the past few months and was slightly lower than that of July a year ago (148). Sales were steady at 25 units compared to 22 a year ago. 15 of the 22 closings in July ’08 (68%) were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category, so this is certainly impacting the Windsor market. The median price ($407,000) of closed homes and the average per square foot price ($235.00) remain stable over the last several months, but are behind what they were a year ago ($534,000 and $322/sf respectively).

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (82) in July, 2008 climbed from 77 units a month ago, and remains well below the 107 units available at this time in July, 2007. New sales and closings are consistent over the past five months at 6 to 10 per month. Of the 9 homes that closed in July, 5 of them were in the bank owned,/in foreclosure /short sale category. The average price per square foot of homes that closed in July was stable at $223/sf.

CAR Publishes New Article on Deeds in Lieu of Foreclosure: C.A.R.’s Member Legal Services team has published a new legal article, “Deeds in Lieu of Foreclosure.” A deed in lieu of foreclosure is a transfer of real property from the property owner to the lender. This process provides property owners with an alternative to a short sale or foreclosure.This article can be found on the What’s New and Legal Articles pages of the Legal section on C.A.R. Online (www.car.org), or go directly http://www.car.org/legal/2008articles/deed-in-lieu-foreclosure/.

Economic Overview – The following is from my investment advisor. I think it’s a pretty good summary: “While the broad market briefly broke below (7/10-16 and 7/28-29) the sideways trading range I mentioned in previous notes, it is now back into that range again. Economic data continues to support a slowing domestic and global economy that should let inflation abate, particularly now that the commodities have sold off sharply–lower oil is like a tax rebate. This sideways action could continue into next year as we work through the extra supply of real estate, and continue to write down the overleveraged financings in the mortgage, credit card and other debt markets”.

Education: NorBar has some great education programs coming up including GRI and SRES courses. Log on to http://www.norbarrealtor.com/ and scroll down to “Seminars and Classes” to check the schedule.

Realtors can be a thoughtful group: “The Montreal Gazette reports the winner of a $3.6 million lotto – almost a year ago – has finally come forward.
The winner is a 24-year-old real estate agent Peter Dushop, who said he knew he had won but didn’t want to claim the prize until he had thought through how it would affect him and the people around him.
Had he waited three weeks longer, his prize would have expired unclaimed. As it is, the newspaper calculated he had lost almost $100,000 in interest on the money.”

And, of course, he was smart enough to redeem the prize before it’s expiration. I don’t really believe in the various lotteries, but good luck to Peter in the next phase of his life.

Closings:   Darlene Riddle of our Healdsburg office, Richard Hurst of our Cloverdale office and Holly Evans-White of our St. Helena office each celebrated their first closings with Frank Howard Allen Realtors – the Wine Country Group in the past two weeks.  Wishing them many more!

The following agents also enjoyed closings between 7/28 and 8/14: Diane Harris and Deke DeKay (Healdsburg); Leo Merle (Sonoma); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); Bill Streett (Sonoma); Steve and Marla Ericson (St. Helena); Greg McCaw (Sonoma); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma); Sheila Kelly (Napa); Alicia Robledo (Sonoma); Herb Heil (Sonoma); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Kendra Martin (Sonoma) and Bob Beckstrom (St. Helena). The following agents closed two sides during this period: Linda Alioto (St. Helena); Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); Corrie Sterbentz (Sonoma); David Barker (Napa) and Mike Caselli (Sonoma). Cheri Stanley of our Napa office and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office closed three transactions during this period. And, Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office closed four sides duruing this period.  Well done, and congratulations to all!

Instructions for life:  Following on the twenty point list that I found in my “Quotations” file, here is the second batch:

I N S T R U C T I O N S F O R L I F E (2nd bunch)

6. Don’t let a little dispute injure a great friendship.

7. When you realize you’ve made a mistake, take immediate steps to correct it.

8. Spend some time alone.

9. Open your arms to change, but don’t let go of your values.

10. Remember that silence is sometimes the best answer.

How the World Turns: We just spent a few days with one of Diane’s cousins from Sweden (along with her husband and son) introducing them to Northern California. We were enjoying the beautiful summer flowers in a garden in Carmel and Diane explained that we call that flower Impatiens. Her cousin replied, “that’s interesting, we call it Ambitious”.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008: As you likely know, the President signed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 on Wednesday of this week. NAR has a nice summary of the key provisions of the Act. Visit this link to review the key points.

A friend recently shared an analogy with me comparing the current housing cycle to the opera. An operatic heroine can die an excruciatingly slow death as her arias go on and on before she finally lets go and dies amid much applause and relief. So it is with this housing cycle, seeming to be experiencing a slow, moribund demise with intrigue and villains, injured bystanders, inept officials, etc., etc. But, great drama can provide catharsis, and perhaps we will see this in time as the housing and credit markets become more stable.

The Housing Act is attempting to address the past cycle that was over stimulated by a combination of cheap money and low credit standards. There remains a lot of “cleaning up” to do, and this Act will help some, but many believe that the current cycle may linger into 2010 – and we need to be prepared to deal in it.

Wine Country Group performance: Overall, our company performance in July, 2008 was slightly behind our sales in July, 2007, but well ahead of our performance in July, 2006. With the cost cuts that we have made over the past couple of years, we had a small profit for the month. Thanks to our many agents and staff who continue to work hard in a difficult market. The star office in the month was our Napa office which closed 19 units compared to 7 a year ago.

Affordability and Consumer Confidence: Certainly, with lower median prices and low interest rates, CAR’s First Time Buyer Affordability Index continues to improve. For the state, the Index for the 1st quarter of 2008 stands at 44 compared to 26 for the 1st quarter of 2007. For the Northern Wine Country region (Sonoma, Napa and Mendocino) the index stands at 39 compared to 24 a year ago. So it is a better time for well qualified first time homebuyers.

Last week, the Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment for the month unexpectedly rose from the lowest level in 28 years. The gauge increased to 61.2 from 56.4. The news on incomes was also on the rise. The proportion of people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months increased to 14.2 percent from a record-low 13.1 percent in June, according to today’s report. Records began in 1967. I am always encouraged when consumer confidence is on the rise!

I was recently shown a thirty five year chart of Mortgage Rate History based on 30 year fixed interest rates. The rate of 6.03 in May of 2008, was in the middle of the range that we have experienced since 2002, but it’s far better than the 18.45% which was the level in October, 1981. And, we were selling homes then! So there are reasons to be optimistic, and business to be done.

Closings: The following agents also enjoyed closings between 7/14 and 7/27: Michelle Delfino (Healdsburg); Tammy Owens (Sonoma); Mike Caselli (Sonoma): Nicki Rector (Healdsburg); Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Sheila Deignan (Sonoma) and Ann Foley (Sonoma). The following agents closed two sides during this period: Mari Johnson (Sonoma), and Robyn Makurak (Sonoma). Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office closed three transactions during this period. And, Frank Trozzo and David Barker, both in our Napa office, closed five sales each over this two week period. Diane Krause of our Sonoma office closed two sides during this period with a combined sales volume of $7,800,000. Well done, and congratulations to all!

Instructions for life: I recently came across a twenty point list in my “Quotations” file that, upon review, I think is pretty good. I don’t know where I got it, but I’d like to share five points per month in my next four blog updates.

Instructions for Life

1. Take into account that great love and
great achievements involve great risk.

2. When you lose, don’t lose the lesson!

3. Follow the three Rs: Respect for self,
Respect for others, Responsibility for all your actions.

4. Remember that not getting what you want is sometimes a wonderful stroke of luck.

5. Learn the rules so you know how to break them properly.

Wine Country Group Update for 1st Half, 2008: The Wine Country Group’s activity for the first half of 2008 remains positive. Our unit sales and gross commission income remain ahead of last year. We are now in a profitable position on a year to date basis.

We currently have 111 pending sales with a value of $73,000,000 compared to 121 pending sales a year ago. We currently have 255 listings with a value of $198,000,000 ($776,400 per unit) compared to 240 listings a year ago at an average price of $891,000. Certainly, the values of our escrows and listings reflect the overall market and are lower than a year ago.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets and we have doubled our market share in the Napa Valley. We have sold more units (85) out of our Napa office in the first half of 2008 than all but two of our competitors there. Cheri Stanley in our Napa office has closed more homes (43) at a higher value ($16.9 million) than any other agent based in the Napa Valley for the first half of 2008.

June, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis:

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Napa County (804) fell on a month to month basis, and remains 9% below the inventory (882) at this time last year. New sales (87) and closed escrows (86) were fairly consistent with the pace of a year ago (81 and 97, respectively). There was a drop from the 103 new sales that occurred in May, 2008. As we have been observing, the most active market is in American Canyon where there were 22 new sales compared to 6 in June of 2007. As we have noted before, many of these sales are REOs (bank owned properties), and there are more coming on the market and being sold each month. These lower priced sales influenced the median price in the county down to $446,000 from $$488,000 a year ago and the selling price per square foot ($306) was down from $488/sf a year ago.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) fell off from a month ago (May, 2008) when there were 15 new sales and 14 closings. In June, there were just 5 new sales and 8 closings. This compares to 17 new sales and 21 closings in June, 07, so sales have certainly tapered off. Up Valley inventory is up to 177 homes in June, the highest that it has been in the last four years. The homes that did close in June of this year sold for a higher median and higher per square foot price than the homes that sold in June of 2007.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (2,310) in Sonoma County at the end of June was 7% lower than a year ago. Pending sales (375) in June were 18% ahead of the pace in June, 2007 (317) and were consistent with the numbers posted in May, 2008. The median price ($403,000) continued to drop as more REO (bank owned properties) sell and depress that figure. A year ago the median price of sold homes in the County was $600,000. Based on the current pace of sales, the inventory of unsold homes is down to a 6.2 month supply compared to 13.9 months in January of this year.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (211) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of June remained on about a par for the period of June, 2007 (224). There were 27 new sales for the month (compared to 33 a month ago and 35 in 6/07), so things have slowed down a little. Both median price ($505,000) and the price per sq. ft. ($379/sf) were down year over a year from $678,000 and $447/sf respectively. The sales price of homes sold in June represented 94% of original list price – a relatively strong percentage based on our other markets.

Healdsburg Trends: Unsold listing inventory continued to climb in Healdsburg in June reaching a four year high of 123 units. There are 34 more homes available for sale than there were a year ago at this time. New sales (11) and closed escrows (15) in June remained steady with the rate of a month ago and were also similar to the numbers in June, 2007. It will be interesting to see if the unsold inventory of homes in Healdsburg continues to grow.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (132) in Windsor at the end of June was below of where it was in May (141) and well below that of June a year ago (158). Sales were steady at 23 units compared to 24 a year ago. There are only five months of inventory available based on the current sales pace. The median price ($440,000) of closed homes and the average per square foot price ($244.00) remain stable on a month to month basis, but are behind what they were a year ago ($570,000 and $365/sf respectively).

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (77) in June dropped from 88 units a month ago, and remains well below the 105 units available at this time in June, 2007. New sales and closings are consistent over the past five months at 7 to 10 per month. The median price ($345,000) and price per square foot ($221/sf) of homes closed in June, 2008 were both behind the values in June, 2007 ($500,000 and $281.00 respectively).

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

Short Sale Suggestion: I found this suggestion in a management letter. It makes sense to me: “In short sales, agents with good clients (buyers) who are making offers and having the lenders say that they will get back in 60 days is absurd. What I’m now telling agents to do is find out who the lender is and get the buyer to get qualified by the same lender. That would expedite the situation and most likely motivate the lender to accept their offer and ultimately save the lender some money. It has worked well with multiple offers.” It may save the buyer some money also.

June foreclosures down 3 percent: This is from a recent news release: “(IRVINE, Calif.) – The foreclosure tracking service RealtyTrac reports foreclosure filings for June declined 3 percent from the previous month, suggesting the market may be working its way out of one of the worst declines since the Great Depression.
The company said default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions were reported on 252,363 properties during the month – about one in every 501 households.
RealtyTrac said the number of homes in foreclosure was still 53 percent higher than a year ago at this time.
Nevada, California, Arizona continue to post top state foreclosure rates.”

Web Stats: A couple of updates: In the 2nd Q. of this year, our web traffic to www.winecountrygroup.com (visit to see our new look for our home page) improved by ten percent in unique visitors (2,966) nearly 40% of which were “new visits”. The average time spent on our site was 2:09 seconds per visit, which I understand is above the average. We had visitors from 10 different countries – the most (after the US) were from Canada and Ireland. Visit this link for a nice report that Susie has prepared regarding our web traffic that can be included in your listing presentation.

Countrywide and Bank of America: As you probably know, Countrywide is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America. Our Marketing Services Agreement remains in effect and we believe that we are affiliated with the most productive and effective mortgage originator in the industry. Kenneth Wilson, Chairman and CEO of Bank of America, said that he is going to tell the other story of Countrywide…and make sure that the good news gets out…like during the last six months CW has helped more than 100,000 borrowers stay in their homes. Stay tuned.

Closings: Ryan De Mello of our Napa office had his first closing with Frank Howard Allen, The Wine Country Group – congratulations and wishing you many more. The following agents also enjoyed closings between 6/30 to 7/13: Frank Trozzo (Napa); Scott Rader (Healdsburg); Pat Brown (Sonoma); Barbara Sommerville (Sonoma): Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Mary Beth Foster (Sonoma); Tammy Owens (Sonoma); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood); Jeff Veness (St. Helena); and Felice Torri (Sonoma). The following agents closed two sides during this period: Cheri Stanley (Napa); Erick Rothfeld (Sonoma), David Barker (Napa); Charlee Schanzer (Healdsburg); Sheila Deignan (Sonoma) and Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office.
Congratulations to all!

Retirement:

“The successful person has the habit of doing the things failures don’t like to do. They don’t like doing them either necessarily. But their disliking is subordinated to the strength of their purpose”. E. M. Gray

Last week, under the smoky skies in Healdsburg, the colleagues of Scott Rader from the Healdsburg and Cloverdale offices gave Scott and his wife, Sue, a surprise retirement celebration. Scott actually retired as Healdsburg and Cloverdale office manager on May 1st, but the group planned a surprise canoe trip down the Russian River and an outstanding BBQ picnic.

I’ve had the privilege of working with Scott for about ten years and the quote above reminds me of him. Scott fostered the growth of our Healdsburg office from four or so when we opened to the productive bunch of 31 agents that we now have. He opened both our Windsor and Cloverdale locations and is instrumental for making us number one in market share in both Healdsburg and Cloverdale. He facilitated opening five different office locations and facilitated a merger with a competitor.

All of this was done with Scott’s “strength of purpose”, easy manner and pragmatic thinking. It is not a surprise that our Healdsburg office was our “Office of the Year” in 2007. All in all, Scott is a great person and we look forward to his continuing on as a contributing sales agent when he is not off sailing. And, let us hope that he is a great sailor, because he and Sue are heading off for six months beginning in September. Happy sailing to Scott and Sue and thanks for all that you contributed to the Wine Country Group.

Marketing Training: Realtor.com is coming to Santa Rosa on July 15th to present a free Marketing and Technology workshop. I like the statement that they make in their brochure that “Research now shows that you are 500% more likely to sell a home through the internet than through the newspaper”. That’s startling, along with the fact that 84% of all home buyers search for their home on the internet. Tell that to your potential sellers when you are making your listing presentation with the fact that FHA-WCG is the only company in our market to provide professional property websites for each of our listings at no cost to our agents. I hear of companies having their agents sign notes for thousands and thousands of dollars of marketing expenses over which the agents had no control. I don’t understand that concept.

In any case, check out this LINK if you would like to know more about the workshop.

Best in the Business: Please view this new handout that will be part of our listing package materials congratulating the firm on being named “Best Real Estate Company” in the North Bay. New and in color, it looks great. If you wish to mail to prospects or your SOI, please contact Susie.

Featured listings of the week: The most visited property on our Wine Country Group website for June was Tish Thames listing at 18092 Gregor Street in Sonoma. You can visit this listing at www.18092greger.com. Our iHomefinders IDX search engine on our Wine Country Group website remains in the top 2% of activity for iHomefinders on a national basis. In June we had 3,445 new visitors, 2,626 searches 23,107 property views.

Lock Box Lesson: One of our agents splits time between Napa and Boise, Idaho. He is licensed in both states, so if you have any friends or clients interested in property in Idaho, let me know and I’ll put you in touch. He had a listing in Boise where the home had a lever door handle that did not lend itself to attaching the lockbox. So, being trustful, he left it free standing on the porch. Well, you can guess what happened. Someone saw the lockbox, cased the house, stole the lockbox, got it open somehow, got the keys and burglarized the home to the extent of $40,000 including a car in the garage. Lesson… always secure your lockboxes to something strong so they cannot be stolen. It’s part of our lockbox rules.

Welcome new agent Curtis Kind to our Cloverdale office. I don’t believe that I mentioned that Richard Hurst has also joined our Cloverdale office. Welcome!

Closings: Closings between 6/16 to 6/27 – and we had a few…34 in the past two weeks! Tammi Mazziliano of our Napa office had her first closing as a Frank Howard Allen Wine Country Group agent – special congratulations. And on another special note, one of Daniel Casabonne’s four sales closed in five days after acceptance, and, all the paperwork was complete on the day of closing. Well done. The following agents also enjoyed closings for this period: Marianne Young (Napa), Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen), Lisa Albertson (Sonoma), Sheila Whitney (Sonoma), Lisa Ehreth, Rico Ruthnick and Dee Grohmann (Healdsburg), Joyce Davison (Sonoma), Herb Heil (Sonoma), Susan Irvine (Sonoma), Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood), Steve and Marla Ericson and Bob Beckstrom (St. Helena), and Diane Litchfield and Regina Gibson (Sonoma). The following agents closed two sides during this period: Frank Trozzo (Napa), Pat Brown (Sonoma), Tish Thames (Sonoma), and Jeff Veness (St. Helena). Cheri Stanley (Napa) had three closings for this period. Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office had four closings for this period, and David Barker of our Napa office had six closings for this period. Congratulations to all!

Top Producers for 1st half of 2008: Congratulations, also, to these top producers for their great production in the 1st half of 2008: Cheri Stanley, Daniel Casabonne, Dee Grohmann, Steve and Marla Ericson/Bob Beckstrom, Isaac Raboy, Louis Horta, Beth Bruno, Ron and Jane Pavelka, Erick Rothfeld, Sheila Deignan and Frank Trozzo. Well done by all.

Preparation:

“More important than the will to win is the will to prepare.” Charlie Munger.

I find it all the time in cooking, music and painting. Preparation is two thirds of the work. I believe that it is the same in our businesses as real estate professionals. If we diligently and fully prepare, we will have more success. Let me know if you feel we can support your preparation for your work in any way.

Survey Results: Thanks to the 55 of you, agents, staff and management, who took the time to complete the survey that we sent out in early May. We got lots of good information and helpful comments. We are already making strides in response to the results of the survey.

Specifically, Susie has revamped our listing presentation materials, including the Luxury Portfolio materials, to make it easier to assemble both conventional and luxury listing presentations. Susie will be coming to each office to set up the files/folders in this new, easier and more efficient format.

By the next blog update, I will have a link to the summary of the survey results so that you may view them if you wish. In the meantime, let me know if you have any questions.

Countrywide Bank to become Bank of America Mortgage: Many of you expressed unhappiness with our Marketing Services Agreement with Countrywide primarily because of the bad publicity that they have received over the past year or so. Bank of America apparently has done the same research and when the acquisition of CWB is completed (due to be July 1), the mortgage arm will be renamed Bank of America Mortgage. We will be changing all of our door logos, listing riders, etc. We’ll keep you informed if anything changes.

Company update: The Wine Country Group’s activity for the first five months of 2008 remains positive. Our gross dollar sales volume and gross commission income remain 6% ahead of last year. At the same time we have pared our “fixed expenses” (not including commission expenses) by nearly 18%. Compliments to Lori Sargiotto and all of our staff for making this happen. As a result, we have a small loss (73% less than a year ago) going into the busiest and most productive portion of our year.

We currently have 101 pending sales with a value of $67,000,000 compared to 110 pending sales a year ago. We currently have 255 listings with a value of $212,000,000 ($851,000 per unit) compared to 253 listings a year ago at an average price of $909,000. Certainly, the values of our escrows and listings reflect the overall market and are lower than a year ago.

Our strongest performing offices in the first five months of the year are Sonoma, Napa and Cloverdale. We remain number one in market share in the Sonoma, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets and we have doubled our market share in the Napa Valley. We have sold more units out of our Napa office in the first five months of 2008 than all but two of our competitors there. Our unit volume is up 84% year to date compared to a year ago and our four most active competitors have experienced reductions in unit volume that varies from a low of 14% to a high of 44%. The majority of this business is handling REO sales for lenders – very demanding work that our agents our doing with alacrity and skill.

Market Conditions in our Wine Country Group markets:

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Napa County (816) rose on a month to month basis, but remains 2% below the inventory at this time last year. There was a jump in new sales in May to 103 compared to 64 in April and 85 in May of 2007. As we have been observing, the most active market is in American Canyon where there were 31 new sales compared to 10 in April and 7 in Ma7 of 2007. As we have noted before, many of these sales are REOs (bank owned properties), and there are more coming on the market and being sold each month. These lower priced sales influenced the median price in the county down to $490,000, but the selling price per square foot is relatively stable at $355.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) had its most active month in May, with 15 new sales and 14 closings. This is almost identical to the number of new sales and closings in May, 07. Up Valley inventory is up to 155 homes in May, about 7% ahead of the inventory level in May of last year. The homes that did close in May closed at 86% of the original listing price

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (2,265) in Sonoma County at the end of May was 4% lower than a year ago. Pending sales (384) in May were 17% ahead of the pace in may, 2007 (329). The median price ($425,000) continued to drop as more REO (bank owned properties) sell and depress that figure. A year ago the median price of sold homes in the County was $575,000. Based on the current pace of sales, the inventory of unsold homes is down to a 5.9 month supply compared to 13.9 months in January of this year.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (202) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of May remained on about a par for the period of May, 2007 (205). Based on 34 new sales for the month (compared to 26 a month ago and 23 in 5/07) there are only 5.9 months of inventory available. The sales price of homes sold in May represented 92% of original list price – a relatively strong percentage based on our other markets.

Healdsburg Trends: Unsold listing inventory continued to climb in Healdsburg in May reaching a 15 month high of 112 units. That’s 28% higher than in May, 2007 when there were 88 unsold units in inventory. There was a jump in new sales in May to 12 compared to 6 a month ago but behind the pace of 19 new sales in May, 2007. The Healdsburg market is still a bit “stuck” with the available inventory not being attractive to the available buyers.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (141) in Windsor at the end of May was ahead of were it was in April (125) but below that of May a year ago (148). Sales were strong at 28 units compared to 19 a year ago. There are only five months of inventory available based on the current sales pace. The median price of closed homes ($430,000) and the average per square foot price of sold homes ($243.00) seems to be stable at the moment.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (88) in May jumped from 65 units a month ago, but remains below the 103 units available at this time in May, 2007. It seems that some sellers decided to get into, or back into, the market. New sales and closings are steady at 8 to 10 per month. The median price ($422,000) and price per square foot ($249/sf) were both ahead of the prior month but behind the values in May, 2007 ($568,000 and $350.00 respectively).

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

Featured listings of the week: Are most visited property on the web in the past couple of weeks has been Alicia Robledo’s listing at 959 Center St. in Sonoma – a 2/1 for $274,900.

Daniel Casabonne recently earned a new listing in competition with some of the top agents in the area. It is a striking contemporary. Visit www.barstola.com to have a look – it’s worth a visit on-line – and in person!

Send me candidates for “new listing of the week” when you have a new listing and have the property website prepared for it.

Short Sales: You will recall all of the red flags that we have seen relating to short sales. Here are some new ones: 1. Lender requiring buyer to sign a statement that they can withdraw their short sale approval at any time and direct the seller to accept a higher third party offer. Solution: Your buyer has to sign it – so close ASAP after that. 2. Lender requires listing agent to continue to actively advertise the property at the accepted short sale price to try to generate higher offers prior to closing. Solution: Close ASAP after lender acceptance. 3. Lender puts in payoff instructions to the title company that they shall have the right to revoke their short sale approval and take possession of the home anytime within thirty days after closing (wow – think of the problems that could create). Solution: Title company attorneys required that the lender remove this clause from their payoff instructions.

As Sergeant Phil Esterhaus (played by the late Michael Conrad) used to say on Hill Street Blues: “And hey…let’s be careful out there”.

Closings: Closings between 5/26 and 6/13 – and we had a few…50 in the past three weeks! The following agents enjoyed closings for this period: Louis Horta (Napa), Frank Trozzo (Napa), Deke DeKay and Diane Harris (Healdsburg), Mike Caselli (Sonoma), Frank Lazzarotto (Sonoma), Lisa Ehreth (Healdsburg), Linda Alioto (St. Helena), Ann Amtower (Healdsburg), Joyce Davison (Sonoma), Erin George (Sonoma), Susan Irvine (Sonoma), Isaac Raboy (Napa) and Dan Gallagher (Sonoma). The following agents closed two sides during this period: David Barker (Napa), Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg), Erick Rothfeld (Sonoma) Michelle Delfino (Healdsburg), Pat Brown (Sonoma), Diane Krause (Sonoma), Sheila Deignan (Sonoma), and Ron and Jane Pavelka (Cloverdale). Carol Lexa (Healdsburg) had three closings for this period. Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office had four closings for this period. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office had five closings for this period. And Cheri Stanley of our Napa office had a whopping 9 closings in this three week period.

Congratulations to all!

Changing Times:

The truth is that our finest moments are most likely to occur when we are feeling deeply uncomfortable, unhappy, or unfulfilled. For it is only in such moments, propelled by our discomfort, that we are likely to step out of our ruts and start searching for different ways or truer answers. -M. Scott Peck, psychiatrist and author (1936-2005)

There are a few more quotations on changing times and risk that I like:

Even if you are on the right track you’ll get run over if you just sit there. -Will Rogers

Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones that you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. -Mark Twain

And my favorite quote on change:

There is a certain relief in change even though it may be from bad to worse! As I have often found in traveling by stagecoach, it is often a comfort to shift one’s position and be bruised in a new place. -Washington Irving

Market Conditions: I was away much of May, so had a late look at TrendGraphix data for April. Different conditions surrounding the various markets in which we are working:
Solano County: Inventory is down 9% year over year; Sales are up 63% year over year and prices of sold homes are down 27% year over year. 6.5 months of inventory at current sales pace.
Napa County: Inventory is up 4% year over year and sales are off 44% YtoY; Price per square foot is off 18% YtoY; 12.3 months of inventory at current sales pace.
City of Napa: Inventory up 15% YtoY and sales off 51% YtoY; 12.6 months of inventory at current sales pace.
American Canyon – An improving market!
Sonoma County: Inventory is down 1% YtoY; Sales are up 17% YtoY; Price/sf of sold homes is down 16% YtoY and 5.7 months of inventory. In the markets where the Wine Country Group has offices, Sonoma Valley is steady, Cloverdale is strong and Healdsburg is weak.

Call me for details from our exclusive TrendGraphix reports.

Top Producers: Cheri Stanley of our Napa office has achieved top producer status among all Solano County and Napa County agents with her combined year to date production in each county. She has over $11.7 million dollars in sales compared to the next closest agent in Solano County with $7.9 million and the next closest agent in Napa County with $11.5 million. She has closed 30 units this year compared to 25 for the next highest agent in Solano County and 10 for the next highest agent in Napa County.

Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office actually has dollar sales in excess of Cheri at $14.0 million YTD which places him in third position in all of Sonoma County.

Congratulations and “keep it up” to Cheri and Dan.

Company Survey: Fifty five agents and staff responded to the survey that we sent out at the beginning of May. Thanks to those who sent us their opinions. We have lots of detailed comments which we are currently analyzing. We will look them all over, and develop some goals to improve our firm based on your observations and suggestions. Thanks again.

Bankprops.net – Because our list of bank owned properties is continuing to grow, we have created a separate website for them. Traffic to this site has been fairly steady since we first launched in late March. You can visit www.bankprops.net to see our current inventory (it does not list contingent properties – only active and available). Feel free to pass this onto any of your clients interested in the REO market. We will also be using this site in some of our advertising in an effort to attract clients interested in REO properties. This site is also available from our main webpage – www.winecountrygroup.com – under the “property search” drop down list – the category is “Bank Owned Properties”.

Real Trends: Earl was recently in Denver for the annual meeting of the top real estate brokerage firms in the country. A couple of highlights from Earl’s notes at the conference:
Key Components of Leadership:
1. Surround yourself with great people
2. Prepare relentlessly
3. Hold yourself accountable
4. Develop strong beliefs
5. Be your own person

REO properties are resulting in lender losses of $40,000 to $50,000 on each transaction across the country.

FHA and VA loans are going to become prominent sources for loans

Per one top executive: “Newspaper advertising is dead. When riding a dead horse, get off of it.”

98 to 99% of all outstanding home mortgage loans are current. That’s certainly positive news that the industry can circulate.

Last year there were 300 attendees at this annual conference, this year there were 220 registrants. A clear reflection of the times.

Luxe Tours on Luxury Portfolio – You may recall that we are an exclusive affiliate of Leading Real Estate Companies of the World and Luxury Portfolio – the international real estate network that participates in more multi million-dollar transactions than any other single real estate organization. It is the best global network in the world.

Luxury Portfolio is now offering “Luxe Tours” on Luxury Portfolio listings. They are prepared automatically and for free on listings priced over $5,000,000. They cost only $25.00 for listings between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000 if you request. You can take a look at a “Luxe Tour” by clicking on this web link: Mission Farms Luxe Tour. Call Susie if you have any questions.

iHomefinders: Our website, www.winecountrygroup.com, remains in the top 2% of visited iHomefinder search engines across the country. In 26 days of May, we had 2,830 new visitors, 2,696 searches and 18,617 properties viewed. On average, visitors to our site conduct 3 searches and visit 8 properties. You can certainly be proud and confident in quoting these statistics to your clients and potential sellers. Also, recommend our site to your buyers – they will find it attractive and easy to use.

Featured listing of the week: Are most visited property on the web in May has been 84 Woodworth Lane, Sonoma. Check it out by visiting the website: http://www.84woodworth.com.

Send me candidates for “new listing of the week” when you have a new listing and have the property website prepared for it.

Frank Howard Allen Realtors company picnic: It’s that time of the year again – time for Frank Howard Allen’s Annual Picnic at Stafford Lake Park, Novato. It will be held on Friday, June 20, from 3:00 pm to 7:00 pm. Miguel the DJ, Sophie’s Crafts, Facepainter and Ballooner, Giant Slide, Delicious Picnic Spread and refreshments. A great time for the entire family. Please RSVP to your office administrator by 6/13/08. The Wine Country Group picks up the fee for our agents and staff and their families, so go and have a great summer afternoon on us!

Closings: Closings between 4/28 and 5/23. First, Marianne Young of our Napa office and Gina Clyde of our Sonoma office had their first closings with the firm. Wishing them many more! The following also enjoyed closings for this period: Jessica Detwiler-Potts (Napa), Louis Horta (Napa), Frank Trozzo (Napa), Sheila Deignan (Sonoma), Deke DeKay and Diane Harris (Healdsburg), Diane Litchfield (Sonoma), Howard Powell (Sonoma), Michelle Delfino (Healdsburg), Lisa Ehreth (Healdsburg), Dee Grohmann (Healdsburg), David Barker (Napa), Nicki Rector (Healdsburg), Steve and Marla Ericson (St. Helena), Christina Bourassa (Sonoma), and Bill Streett (Sonoma). The following agents closed two sides during this period: Kendra Martin (Sonoma) and Ron and Jane Pavelka (Cloverdale). Cheri Stanley (Napa) and David Reynolds (Cloverdale) had three closings for this period. And Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office had five closings each for this period. Congratulations to all!

I’m a bit behind on my blog updates. A couple of things have interceded, one of which was my 60th birthday – egads!

I scheduled a massage for the morning of my birthday and my massuese always asks me for a word/thought to hold during the massage – instantly, the word gratitude came to mind. I always think of my Mom on my birthday. She died of breast cancer in 1972 when she was forty eight and I was twenty four. I am always grateful to have had twenty four wonderful years with her and to have the years that I have had to enjoy family, friends, colleagues and every day encounters with countless “strangers”. Thanks for being a part of that mix.

Market Update:

Wine Country Group Update for 1st Quarter, 2008

The Wine Country Group’s activity in the first quarter remained positive. Our closings were 12% ahead of the 1st Q of 2007. Our sales volume ($87,127,813) was 6% ahead of last year. We currently have 65 pending sales with a value of $50,000,000 ($769,000 per unit). We currently have 256 listings with a value of $196,000,000 ($775,000 per unit) Our listing volume is up from a low of 171 units in January.

Our strongest performing offices in the 1st Q were Sonoma and Napa. Sonoma was 12% ahead for the period and Napa was a whopping 375% ahead of last year and had their best quarter ever. Our offices in Glen Ellen, Cloverdale and St. Helena also had production ahead of the 1st Q 2007.

We remain number one in market share in the Sonoma Valley (27.6% in units closed for the past 12 months (“UCLTM”) and Healdsburg (27.7% UCLTM). We did break through in Cloverdale to attain number one in market share in both closed transactions and dollar volume over the past twelve months. Congratulations to our agents doing business in Cloverdale and the Cloverdale office.

March, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Napa County (748) rose on a month to month basis as it did in February. We are seeing some homes coming back on the market after taking the winter “off” and we are also seeing new bank owned listings (visit www.bankprops.net). Inventory is 13% higher at the end of March, 2008 than at the end of March, 2007. There was a jump in new sales in March to 76 compared to 43 in February and 77 in March of 2007, so things seem stable in the overall county. Upon looking more closely, sales in the city of Napa (42) were ahead of the 25 in February and close to the 50 in March, 2007. Up Valley sales (9) were even with the pace in February, but off from 20 in March of 2007. The real up tick took place in American Canyon where there were 24 new sales compared to 9 in February and 5 in March of 2007. So, the energy for the Napa County market right now is coming from American Canyon. Our agents active in that market believe that more than a third of those sales might be bank owned properties, and there are more coming on the market and being sold each month. These lower priced sales influenced the median price in the county down to $485,000, but the selling price per square foot is relatively stable at $361.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) maintained its pace in February, ’08, with nine new sales and ten closings, but that was half of the number of new sales and closings in March, 07 (20). So, it looks like the spring market did not fully kick in this March as it did last year. Incidentally, our agents have two new sales so far in April with one more expected next week, so the feeling is that things are “coming around”. The agents are working really hard for business right now. Up Valley inventory was up to 134 homes in March, about 5% ahead of the inventory level in March of last year. Our agents report that the price range from $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 seems to be the most sluggish right now.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (2058) in Sonoma County at the end of March was only slightly higher than the month before (2,023), and is at a level that is 13% higher than a year ago. This compares to a level that was 30% higher between 2/08 and 2/07. It will be interesting to see if the inventory takes a jump in April. Pending sales (259) in March were 19% ahead of the pace in February, 2008 (217) but 27% below the pace in March, 2007 (354). So, perhaps, the spring buying market is behind last year – again it will interesting to watch in April. Though the headline on the front page of the Press Democrat this morning was “County home prices at 5-year low”, our data (which excludes homes that are not traded in the area wide MLS (BAREIS), which might exclude some new home developments) shows the median price ($441,000) was slightly ahead of that of last month ($435,000) though it was 20.5% lower than the homes sold in March, 2007. The price per square foot for homes sold in the county in March, 2008, was $303/sf.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (161) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of March actually dropped from 168 in February and was even with the inventory a year ago in March, 2007. Clearly, the Valley is not being overrun with listings. Based on 25 closings for the month (compared to 15 a month ago and 22 in 3/07) there are only 6.4 months of inventory available. New sales for the month (16) were down a bit from February (22) and a year ago (22), but still at a stable level looking at the past seven months. The median price of the homes sold in March was $530,000 and the average sold price was $692,000, so we’re having a mix of lower priced and higher priced homes selling with the mid range being the softest market. I know that two new sales were written up this past week in the $3,000,000 and $4,000,000 range, so there is activity, and a relative lack of inventory at the “high” end. There are a few bank owned properties for sale in the market, but not many. It will be interesting to see if new inventory emerges in April to meet the typical “spring market” demand.

Healdsburg Trends: New listings finally hit the market in Healdsburg in March. The number of available homes jumped from 71 in February to 99 at the end of March. That’s an increase of 39% month over month and an increase of 57% year over year. Unfortunately, the sales didn’t follow immediately and there were only 6 new sales and 4 closings in March. The six new sales is fairly consistent with the past several months, but lagging behind the 14 sales that occurred in March of 2007. With the soft sales and higher inventory, the Healdsburg market faces a 25 month supply of unsold inventory compared to a 5.3 month supply in January of this year. We’ll see if some of this new inventory gets sold in the coming month.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (124) in Windsor at the end of March was the same as it was in February and was 15% higher than it was in March, 2007. Sales (17) for the month of March were slightly ahead of the pace in each of the prior six months, however they were 39% lower than in March, 2007. The 28 sales in March, 2007 were the highest for any month last year. The median price ($422,000) and price per square foot ($245/sf) is holding up and the months of available inventory is a relatively low 7.3 months.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (70) in March was slightly ahead of the level of last month (65) and was 19 homes less than the inventory in March a year ago (89). Cloverdale and the Sonoma Valley are the only two markets in our Wine Country area with lower inventorys year over year in March. Sales (8) and closings (9) were on a similar pace as in February and were slightly less than the number of sales in March, 2007. The median price (535,000) and price per square foot ($298/sf) were both ahead of the prior month and stable as relates to the last fifteen month experience.

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

Frank Howard Allen Award Recognition: The production levels for 2008 have been announced as follows:

PRESIDENT’S BRONZE AWARD OF DISTINCTION
DOLLAR VOLUME – MINIMUM $120,000 GCI
UNITS CLOSED – MINIMUM 7

PRESIDENT’S SILVER AWARD OF DISTINCTION
DOLLAR VOLUME – MINIMUM $160,000 GCI
UNITS CLOSED – MINIMUM 12

PRESIDENT’S GOLD AWARD OF DISTINCTION
DOLLAR VOLUME – MINIMUM $210,000 GCI
UNITS CLOSED – MINIMUM 16

THE CHAIRMAN’S CIRCLE OF EXCELLENCE
DOLLAR VOLUME – MINIMUM $275,000 GCI
UNITS CLOSED – MINIMUM 21

THE HALL OF FAME AWARD
DOLLAR VOLUME – TOP 10
UNITS CLOSED – TOP 10
Awarded to any agent in the Top 10 for four out of the past six years.

Hoping that you have an award winning year! And, speaking of that, Cheri Stanley of our Napa office is the top producing agent in both units (19) and dollar volume ($7.9M) for all Napa County agents for 2008 year to date – congratulations to Cheri for achieving this milestone.

Internet Update: Our primary website, www.winecountrygroup.com, has experienced a 257% increase in page views in the past six months. Tremendous! And, our website property search function through our IDX provider, iHomefinders.com, ranks in the top 2% in usage of all of iHomefinder’s clients across the country. We are in the top 2% of volume of usage of the 5,000 firms that are customers of iHomefinders. In the past 27 days, we had 17,751 properties viewed and 2,215 property searches. We’ll keep you informed on progress in these areas.

Policy Update: We have updated our company policy regarding “Properties Sold or Purchased for Own Account”. The changes can be found in our Policies and Procedures Manual on MyWineCountryGroup.com – our Intranet site. Please check it out, or speak to your manager, if you are planning to purchase or sell property for you own account.

Also, the company does not provide credit report services for our agent use. If you need to get a credit report for tenant screening, there is a Tenant Screening Service in Santa Rosa at 707-578-5533. Please do not call our property managers for credit reports! Thanks.

Closings: There is a lot to cover here for the period from 3/24 to 4/18: Congratulations to the following for closings during this period: David Barker, new manager in our Napa office had his first FHA-WCG closing – congratulations. Also, Ann Amtower (Healdsburg), Frank Trozzo (Napa), Beth Bruno (Healdsburg), Barbara Greenhill and Eric Rothfeld (Sonoma), Herb Heil (Sonoma), Susan Irvine (Sonoma), Robyn Makaruk (Sonoma), Pat and Norm Brown (Sonoma), Rose Domner (Healdsburg), Lisa Albertson (Sonoma/Healdsburg), and Dee Grohmann (Healdsburg) had closings. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood) and Deke DeKay and Diane Harris (Healdsburg) each had two closings; Ron and Jane Pavelka (Cloverdale) had three closings; Dan Casabonne had four closings; and, Cheri Stanley topped the list with seven closings during this period. Congratulations to all!

Dear Abby New Year’s Resolutions – #5:

JUST FOR TODAY, I will make a conscious effort to be agreeable. I will be kind and courteous to those who cross my path, and I’ll not speak ill of others. I will improve my appearance, speak softly and not interrupt when someone else is talking. I will refrain from improving anybody but myself.

On the Air: Our radio program last week received good reviews. We covered the status of Wine Country real estate and the current loan market. The interview is posted on line at https://winecountrygroup.com/audio/
If you have about fifteen minutes to listen at your computer – “tune in” and feel free to share the link with your friends who might be curious about the state of the market.

Bankprops.net: – Because our list of bank owned properties is continuing to grow, we have created a separate website for them. You can visit www.bankprops.net to see our current inventory (it does not list contingent properties – only active and available). Feel free to pass this onto any of your clients interested in the REO market. We will also be using this site in some of our advertising in an effort to attract clients interest in REO properties. This site is also available from our main webpage – www.winecountrygroup.com – under the “property search” drop down list – the category is “Bank Owned Properties”.

Leadership Council News: Earl and I recently attended a meeting of the Leadership Council – a forum consisting of owner/managers of twelve real estate firms from around the company. The group meets semi-annually to discuss market conditions, industry news and best business practice ideas. The fact that real estate is a local business was clearly illustrated by the market conditions in the twelve different markets in which these firms operate. Of this group, only our Wine Country market and the Carolinas seem to be steady and improving. One member of the Council is from the Allen Tate company in the Carolinas and they are running ads to counter negative national media – Below is an excerpt from an ad they are running on local TV stations:

“Are you hesitant to buy or sell a home because of what you’re hearing in the national news? No need for concern. Real estate is LOCAL, not national, and it’s still a great time to buy in the Carolinas. Home values continue to appreciate, and homes on the market are selling. Last month, Allen Tate Realtors sold an average of 57 homes per day in the Carolinas.”

I congratulate the firms in our area that are emphasizing the positive experiences in our market places.

Short sale “bait and switch” pricing: We are encountering some agent/brokers who are listing short sale properties at unrealistically low prices in order to try to generate offers from unsuspecting buyers. The likelihood that a bank will accept such offers is very low and it ends up being a colossal waste of time, and a disappointment, for the buyers. The MLS (BAREIS) board is looking at this issue right now, but if you encounter this activity, you can remind the listing agent/broker of MLS rule 10.10 which says: Refusal to Sell. If the seller of any listed property in the MLS Database refuses to accept a written offer satisfying the terms and conditions stated in the listing, such fact shall be included in the confidential remarks section of the listing.

If you have any questions about listing short sale properties, please contact your manager or me.

Second Home Sales in 2007: The combined total of vacation and investment-home sales declined with the overall market in 2007, but still accounted for 33 percent of all existing- and new-home sales, which is close to historic norms, according to the National Association of REALTORS. The market share of homes purchased for investment last year was 21 percent, down from 22 percent in 2006, while another 12 percent were vacation homes, compared with a 14 percent market share in 2006. The total share of second homes declined from 36 percent of transactions in 2006.

NAR’s annual Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey shows vacation-home sales dropped 30.6 percent to 740,000 in 2007 from a record 1.07 million in 2006,
while investment-home sales fell 18.1 percent to 1.35 million last year from 1.65 million in 2006. At the same time, primary residence sales declined 10.0 percent to 4.34 million in 2007 from 4.82 million in 2006.

My experience in the Wine Country is that the percentage of investment and vacation homes is lower than the national averages. My estimate in 2006 was that 18% of our sales were investment/vacation buyers vs. 36% on a national basis. I believe that it is probably even lower today. My intuitive reasoning for this variance is the relatively higher cost of entry into our market.

Thoughts for “real” sellers: One of our colleagues makes the following observation: “this is no market to test price. The feedback from the market is, if you don’t have an offer in 3-4 weeks, seriously consider a one time substantial reduction. The drip reductions don’t work long-term. Decrease your list price to the lowest level you can. This will give you the best opportunity to stand out among the pack”. Similar to the old advice from national trainer David Knox in his excellent video “Pricing the Home to Sell”.

Featured new listing of the week: Something new! Visit www.3780hagenroad.com to see the featured new listing of the week. Just listed a week ago and the website is up and running. Broker tour next week.

Send me candidates for “new listing of the week” when you have a new listing and have the property website prepared for it.

By the way, there are over 550 Wine Country Group property websites ordered as of this date – and we provide these at no cost to our agents. Call me, Susie or Allyson for more info.

Cycle for Sight: Don’t forget the Cycle for Sight event. Visit www.cycle4sight.com to learn more about it, to make a contribution, and to sign up to participate.

Closings: Closings between 3/18 and 3/24 by the following agents: Sheila Kelly (Napa); Ann Foley (Sonoma); Barbara Greenhill (Sonoma); and Jessica Detwiler-Potts (Napa). The following agents closed two sides during this period: Pat Brown and Daniel Casabonne, both of our Sonoma office. Kendra Martin and Sheila Deignan, both of our Sonoma office, had three closings for this period, and Cheri Stanley of our Napa office had four closings for this period. Congratulations to all!

Dear Abby New Year’s Resolutions – I missed a couple of blog updates with the continuation of Dear Abby’s New Year’s resolutions (see 1/31 update for the last posting) and a reader actually reminded me of it – so here is #4. The rest will follow in the next few updates:

JUST FOR TODAY, I will improve my mind. I will read something that requires effort, thought and concentration. I will not be a mental loafer.

On the Air: I will be part of a radio program tomorrow, Thursday, 3/20, that will be about the housing market this Spring (availability and pricing, for both buyers and sellers) and the availability of and potential rates for mortgage financing. The show is on KSVY, 91.3 FM in the Sonoma Valley or on streaming audio at www.KSVY.org. We will be on from 8:40 to 9:00 – so tune in! Also, Norm Brown of our Sonoma office is starting a weekly show on real estate beginning next week – I’ll provide details as I receive them.

Wine Country Group Update for February, 2008

Along with the Market reports below, I’d like to give you an update on the Wine Country Group. Our activity in January and February has been promising. We had the most closings (81) in those two months since the same period in 2005, however, our dollar volume in closings in January and February of this year ($61,500,000) was equal to 2005 and, again, ahead of 2006 and 2007. We currently have 68 pending sales with a value of $44,000,000 ($647,000 per unit). We currently have 238 listings with a value of $195,000,000 ($771,000 per unit) 42 of our 238 listings are bank owned properties and 15 are classified as “short sales”.

We remain number one in market share in the Sonoma Valley (27.1% in units closed for the past 12 months “UCLTM”) and Healdsburg (27.8% UCLTM). We are on the heels of C-21 in Cloverdale with 14.4% UCLTM, but we are ahead in inventory (20.5% to 13.7%), so it is just a matter of time before we break through there. Same is true for all of Sonoma County where we are tied with CB at 12.6% in dollar volume last twelve months ($VLTM) and ahead in dollar value inventory (11.6% to 9.4%). We remain a solid # 3 in the Windsor market place and a solid #5 in our newest markets of Napa County and Up Valley Napa. Our Napa production does not reflect the substantial business that we are doing in Solano County out of our Napa office, so we are stronger there than it appears. Call me if you have any questions.

February, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Napa County (720), and all across Wine Country, rose on a month to month basis for the first time since last July, perhaps setting the stage for the typical spring season selling market. Inventory was 19% higher than February, 2007. Sales seem to have stabilized over the past six months where one might expect 40 – 60 sales per month. This compares to 60-80 per month around the same period last year. Business is certainly being done. There is great activity at the lower end of the market with some foreclosure sales occurring at prices well below there levels of two years ago. The median and average price figures were severely skewed by two sales that totaled $21 million dollar sales in Calistoga in February. One estate was 153 acres with multiple residences that sold for $14,750,000 after being nearly 1,000 days on the market. The other was a 113 acre estate parcel that sold for $6,000,000 after nearly a year on the market. Both estates had substantial vineyards on them. When those sales are taken out of the data, the Napa County median price was $545,000 for the period and the average price was $713,000. The City of Napa inventory of homes for sale (446) actually decreased eight units from January, ’08 and was 28% higher than in February ’07 (349 homes). New sales in the City of Napa seem to be at a pace of roughly 25 per month compared to a pace of 50 per month a year ago. The city’s median price of sold homes bounced back to $535,000 after being below $500,000 last month. American Canyon is contributing about 10 sales per month to the County totals, which is a healthier pace than was occurring last year at this time. Please call me for additional information and copies of the TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) maintained its pace in February, ’08, with ten homes sold. Sales and closings were slightly ahead of February, ’07. Up Valley inventory was up in February (123 homes) and , uniquely for the wine country, slightly below the inventory in Februray of last year (128). The use of median price, average price and price per foot data is always tricky in Up Valley because of the small sample of sold homes and the high value of land and large land parcels that are sold with many of these homes. Over the longer view, median prices are seeming to remain over $1,000,000. The figures were skewed, even more than normal, in Februrary by two sales that totaled $21 million dollar sales in Calistioga in February. One estate was 153 acres with multiple residences that sold for $14,750,000 after being nearly 1,000 days on the market. The other was a 113 acre estate parcel that sold for $6,000,000 after nearly a year on the market. Both estates had substantial vineyards on them.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (2023) in Sonoma County at the end of February was static as relates to January ’07, and is at a level that is 30% higher than a year ago. The inventory didn’t really increase on a seasonal basis in Sonoma County until March of last year and it appears that that will be the trend this year as well. Pending sales actually picked up in February (212) by 45% over January ’08 (146) which is positive for the market as inventory fell to a nine month supply vs. a thirteen month supply last month. Sales still were 23% behind those in February of ’07 (275). The median price for the County fell to $430,000, but the average price of sold homes was $673,000. So it seems that there are mostly sales as the lower and upper end and the market between $750,000 and $1,000,000 is the slowest part of the market right now.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (168) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of February remained steady with that of last month (169) and is at a level that is a relatively modest 10% higher than a year ago. New sales for the month jumped up to 22, nearly twice as much as last month and equal to the pace of January, 2007. This dropped the months of available inventory to 7.6 months compared to 14.1 months in January ’08 and 7.3 months in January ’07. The spread between the average price ($1.225M) of homes closed in January, 2008, and the median price ($644k) of those same homes remained very disparate. The average asking price of available homes in February was $768,000, and the average sold price was $1,225,000. It will be interesting to see how long this pattern persists.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Healdsburg at the end of February jumped to 71 from 63 in January ’08 and is 34% higher than a year ago. Only 4 new home sales occurred in the month and only 4 homes closed escrow, so what has been one of the hotter markets in the Wine Country appears to have cooled off. At this sales pace, there is almost 18 months of inventory. The homes that did close in February were on the market less than 90 days, so, as mentioned last month, agents are eagerly awaiting new spring inventory to offer to their buyers.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (124) in Windsor at the end of February increased from 112 at the end of January, 2008, and is at a level that is 29% higher than a year ago. Sales (15) for the month of February were on par with the pace of January, ’07. Over the past five months, between 10 and 15 new sales have been made. Over the same period a year ago (excepting January, ’07), the pace was 20 or more sales per month). The pace picked up in March of last year, so it will be interesting to see if that trend is repeated. Windsor boasts an 8 month supply of inventory which the lowest level in our Wine Country markets, but, this figure can change quickly on a month to month basis. The median ($412,000), average ($426,000) and per square foot ($229) prices for sold homes were all at levels approximately 25% lower than at this time a year ago.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (65) in February was slightly ahead of the level of last month (63) and was just a couple of homes more than the inventory in January a year ago. Sales (9) and closings (7) sprang back from last month when there were only three new sales were and two homes that closed. The pace of sales and closings in February, ’08 was on a par with the activity for February, ’07, and if it continues, the market will have less than 8 months of supply. We do expect to see more listings as the spring market develops.

Update on Wine Country Group Website – We are in the process of creating a sub-directory on our website for “Bank Owned Properties”. You will be able to direct your clients to one site that will list all of our REO listings (42 at present). Stay tuned!

Closings: Congratulations to the following who had closings for the period from 3/10 through 3/14: Howard Powell, Scott Inglis, Daniel Casabonne, Isaac Raboy, Joyce Davidson, Lisa Albertson, Mari Johnson and Julianne Anshutz of our Sonoma office; and Mechel Boucher of our Healdsburg office. Cheri Stanley of our Napa office and the Grove team of Rico Ruthnick, Lisa Ehreth and Dee Grohmann of our Healdsburg office closed two escrows last week. Congratulations to all!

March and St. Patrick’s Day: I recall a saying that “we all have a little bit of Irish in us”. These poems are borrowed from my yoga teacher with best wishes to you:

An Old Irish Blessing
May love and laughter light your days,
and warm your heart and home.
May good and faithful friends be yours,
wherever you may roam.
May peace and plenty bless your world
with joy that long endures.
May all life’s passing seasons
bring the best to you and yours!

An Irish Friendship Wish
May there always be work for your hands to do;
May your purse always hold a coin or two;
May the sun always shine on your windowpane;
May a rainbow be certain to follow each rain;
May the hand of a friend always be near you;
May God fill your heart with gladness to cheer you.

David Barker Named Manager in Napa Office: Here’s the text of a press release regarding David’s coming on board to lead our Napa office. Call me with any questions.

Napa, California (March 6, 2008)—Frank Howard Allen Realtors-The Wine Country Group™ announced today that David W. Barker, long term Napa resident and business leader, will become the Manager of its Napa office. Gerrett Snedaker, CEO/Broker of Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the Wine Country Group, said: “I am extremely pleased to introduce David Barker as the Manager of our Napa Office. Since we opened our office in Napa five years ago, we have surpassed many other brokerages to become the fifth largest firm in Napa County. We’ve done this with excellent agents, managers and a commitment to unqualified service to our clients. However, during this five year period, we have not had a leader that has long term roots in the community. David Barker is such an individual.”

Mr. Barker has lived in Napa for 20 years. He moved to Napa after an extensive sales and management career in London, Hong Kong, New York and San Francisco with firms such as McGraw Hill and 3M Company. In Napa, he acquired a small real estate publication named Distinctive Properties. Over 14 years of leading Distinctive Properties, the magazine grew from 16 pages and issue to over 100 pages each month. In 2002, Pulitzer Corporation, the parent company of the Napa Register and St. Helena Star, purchased Distinctive Properties from Mr. Barker and he embarked on a real estate sales career. In the past five years, Mr. Barker has become a top producer in real estate sales earning multiple awards for his sales production.

“David brings a breath of experience and a proven success record to our firm”, Mr. Snedaker offered. “His experience in sales management and his familiarity with the Napa County real estate market is unparalleled and we are fortunate to have him joining our leadership team.”

“I am excited to have this opportunity to join Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the Wine Country Group, and to have the opportunity to lead the Napa office to a position of leadership in the market”, Mr. Barker said. “Frank Howard Allen Realtors is celebrating its 100th anniversary in two years and is the leading real estate company in the North Bay. It is a firm with a solid pedigree, excellent staff and management, and above all, excellent agents. My goal is to see that we achieve the levels of performance in our Napa market that the firm has established throughout the rest of it’s market areas.”

Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group, is an independently owned and operated brokerage. It has over 130 agents and seven offices throughout Northern California’s Wine Country and is the only firm in the Wine Country with representation across all of the Wine Country markets.

Market updates: Though the activity in our offices lost some of the vigor that we enjoyed in January, it was fairly steady in closings and new listings. Openings were down for the month, but our number of pending sales has risen steadily since mid January. The number of available listings have risen to 216 with a value of $172,000,000. Ron and Jane Pavelka currently have over thirty five listings that include an attractive new condominium project and subdivision lots for sale in Cloverdale. Full market analysis in the next update to the Broker Blog.

Legal Update: Reminder – Legal Updates are set for March 11 in Petaluma and April 29 in San Rafael. Check with your manager or office administrator for details. Also, the NORBAR Napa Chapter is sponsoring a brown bag session with John Tuteur, Napa County Tax Assessor on Friday, March 21. Come learn how the tax assessor’s office is dealing with our current market.

Agents Seem to be Struggling with 5 Things: Kim Ades is a consultant/coach to our industry and can be found at www.openingdoors.tv. Interestingly, the five things that she has identified relate to both the business and personal lives of sales agents – which makes sense. Her list includes: Focus, Money, Relationships, Career and Mediocrity. If these ring true for you, I encourage you to check into some kind of life and career coaching regime that will support the positive aspects of what you are doing. Call me if I can be of help in this area.

New Website Images: Our Wine Country Group and individual office websites have been updated with beautiful new photos. Check them out at www.winecountrygroup.com Thanks to Susie, Lourdes and Leo for the refreshed spring season look.

Cycle for Sight: Sometime shortly after moving to Northern California in 1976, I participated in a fundraising bicycle ride in Napa County. I remember it being a beautiful introduction to Wine Country and a really fun event. The “Cycle for Sight” has not been conducted for nearly a decade, but is being resurrected this year with an expanded purpose of supporting our veterans returning from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Kudos to Realtor Gary Rose in Napa for his hard work in bringing this great event “back to life”. Visit www.cycle4sight.com to learn more about the event, to make a contribution, and to sign up to participate.

Closings: Congratulations to Mara Kahn of our Sonoma office who had her “only once in your career” first closing in the past closing period. Wishing her many more to come. Other agents who had closings between 2/13 and 3/6 include the following: Kendra Martin (Sonoma); Ann Amtower (Healdsburg); Dulce Hercules (Napa); Michelle and Dianne Delfino (Healdsburg); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Erin George (Sonoma); Carol Lexa (Healdsburg); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); Svetlana Ternovskaya (Napa); Erick Rothfeld (Sonoma); Howard Powell and Scott Inglis (Sonoma); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma/Healdsburg); Catherine Correia (Healdsburg); Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood); Nancy Gillespie (Sonoma); Felice Torri (Sonoma) and Louis Horta (Napa). The following agents closed two sides during this period: Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Jeff Veness (St. Helena); Debbie Hendershot (Healdsburg); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); and Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma). Ron and Jane Pavelka of our Cloverdale office and Isaac Raboy of Orion Commercial both had five closings for this period and Cheri Stanley of our Napa office had a whopping eight sales over this period. Congratulations to all!

A Life Well Lived: I’d like to take a moment to honor the life of Irving Dahlstrom, my wife Diane’s Dad. Irv died peacefully in his sleep on Wednesday morning at the age of 88. He called Mary Jean, his wife of nearly sixty years, before going to bed the night before to wish her a happy birthday one last time that day. I believe in my heart that he graciously did not pass on her birthday, or on Valentine’s Day, so those joyful days will not be burdened with the memory of his passing.

I only met “Irv” ten years ago, so since our relationship was young, I never thought of him as old. His eighty eight years were filled with six great children and many adoring grandkids. We all miss him now, in our different ways. To all of us, he gave his love and caring – and his sense of humor.

My grandfather, Robert Brotemarkle once wrote the following “life statement” to which I often refer: “Ability to do your task, adaptability to meet changing conditions of life and move on to that position in which you will serve others most happily, and a balanced sense of humor are absolute essentials for success in life; and the greatest of these is humor, for so long as a man can laugh at himself, so long will he grow, and the world be better for his living in it“.

By the measure of this statement, and by many, many other measures, Irv enjoyed a successful life. For all of us he directly touched, and for many others who never knew him, he left the world better for his living in it.

Record January for the Wine Country Group: I’m knocking on wood these days. Unlike colleagues with whom I discuss market conditions around the state, and particularly in Marin, San Francisco and the East Bay, our agents had an exceptional month of January. We closed 48 transaction sides – only four less than our peak January in 2005. However, our gross sales of $46,000,000 exceeded any prior January in our ten year history. Our pending sales are also holding their own and new listings are starting to pick up for the season in both numbers and dollar amount. I’m grateful to the hard work of all of our Wine Country Group agents and wish them continuing success as the year moves ahead. And I’m also still knocking on wood!

Market updates: Here’s my analysis of the January TrendGraphix data across our Wine Country markets:

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Napa County (710) continued to decline on a month to month basis from the peak of 906 last July, but reached a level 29% higher than January, 2007. Sales seem to have stabilized over the past five months where one might expect 40 – 60 sales per month. This compares to 60-80 per month around the same period last year. Business is certainly being done. There is great activity at the lower end of the market with some foreclosure sales occurring at prices well below there levels of two years ago. The overall median price dropped below $500,000 ($492k) for the county for the first month in recent memory, though the average sales price ($690) and price per foot ($380/sf) were above last month. The City of Napa experienced the greatest increase in inventory (+45%) year over year in any of our Wine Country markets. Sales in the City of Napa seem to be stable at 30-40 per month compared to a pace of 40-50 per month a year ago. The City also has new three year lows in average price ($534k), median price ($489k) and price per square foot ($331). American Canyon is contributing about 5 to 10 sales per month to the County totals, better than the month of August, 2007, when only one new sale occurred.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) picked up a bit in January, ’08, when eight homes sold compared to just 2 in each of the prior two months. Up Valley is the only Wine Country market in which we are involved where available inventory (100) was lower than January, “07. Listings also tend to stay on the market longer in Up Valley (269 days for homes closed in January, ’08) than in any of our other Wine Country markets. This can be a frustration for owners and agents alike, but the agents are more used to this condition in this high priced and unique area.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (2024) in Sonoma County at the end of January continued to drop from the peak of 2784 homes that were available in September, 2007, but is at a level that is 35% higher than a year ago. Most of the growth in inventory has been outside of our Wine Country office markets as the inventory in Sonoma (169) was just 15% ahead of a year ago. Cloverdale inventory (63) is actually one home lower than a year ago. Sales experience is similar in that county wide sales (144) for the month are off 43% on a year to year basis while our sales pace is not so severely affected in our Wine County office markets. The median price for the County seems to be stable over the last few months at $500,000 and the price per square foot of closed homes in January ($356/sf) is stable over the past several months and only $1/sf less than the price per square foot of homes sold in January, 2007. The trend seems to be larger homes selling for less per square foot than they did one year ago.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (169) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of January continued to drop from the peak of 255 homes that were available in September, 2007, but is at a level that is a relatively modest 15% higher than a year ago. Sales seem to be stable at a level of between 10 and 20 per month compared to a pace of 20 to 30 per month a year ago. One fascinating statistic about the Sonoma Valley market is the spread between the average price ($1.335M) of homes closed in January, 2008, and the median price ($505k) of those same homes. The average price per sf of the 11 homes that closed in January was a record $823. This data is obviously skewed by the recording of a $8.4 million dollar sale in the Lovall Valley area that closed at nearly $1,900 per sf. The home is a newly built 4,400 sf home on 20 acres, so the value of the land and land improvements add a lot to the per sf price. Interestingly, the home sold before being offered on the multiple listing service, a characteristic of some high end transactions. In general, in the Sonoma Valley, the high end and low end seems to be active and the mid range is languishing for the moment. Besides the $8.4M closing last month, there were new sales of homes priced $5M, $3.3M and $2.2M.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (63) in Healdsburg at the end of January continued to drop from the peak of 101 homes that were available in September, 2007, but is at a level that is 31% higher than a year ago. Interestingly, a couple of our top agents report that “it is the same inventory that has been out there for a while. There is nothing of any quality to show to new clients.” They are anxiously looking forward to the spring listing season. As 12 homes closed in January (compared to 14 in January,’07), Healdsburg (and Windsor also) boast only an 8 month supply of inventory compared to 13 months for the County. But, this can change quickly on a month to month basis. The median price ($818k) for the 12 homes that closed in January was the highest of any of our Wine Country markets excepting Up Valley – St. Helena.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale (112) in Windsor at the end of January continued to drop from the peak of 171homes that were available in September, 2007, but is at a level that is 29% higher than a year ago. Sales (14) and closings (14) were actually ahead of the pace of January, ’07. Over the past five months, between 10 and 15 new sales have been made. Over the same period a year ago (excepting January, ’07), the pace was 20 or more sales per month. ), Windsor (and Healdsburg also) boast only an 8 month supply of inventory compared to 13 months for the County. But, this can change quickly on a month to month basis. As in the broader Sonoma County figures, average selling and median prices are more stable than the price per square foot ($262/sf) figure that reached a three year low. The trend seems to be larger homes selling a lower per square foot values.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (63) continued to decline on a month to month basis from the peak of 112 last August, and was actually one home lower than the inventory in January a year ago. There were only two homes that closed in the month of January in Cloverdale, and only three new sales were made. The sales rate has been bumping along at under ten homes per month for much of the past fifteen months. There remains nearly a two year level of inventory based on last month’s sales pace. It isn’t being reflected in these statistics yet, but our top agents in Cloverdale do express that the market is improving and that more business is on the horizon.

Please call me for additional information and copies of the TrendGrahix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

Training Coming Up: Contract Training begins on February 22. The Sales Training Classes (Bullseye Training) started on February 5. The Legal Updates are set for March 11 in Petaluma and April 29 in San Rafael. Check with your manager or office administrator for details.

Closings: Congratulations to the following agents who had closings from 2/4 to 2/8 (all the closings were in Sonoma last week): Herb Heil, Pat Brown, Sheila Whitney, Barbara Sommerville, Chuck Post and Daniel Casabonne. I may have missed a week of closings last week – I’ll catch up next posting.

New Years Resolutions #3: Continuing with Dear Abby’s list of New Years resolutions which she adapted years ago from the original credo of Al-Anon. I’ll share one per blog for the next seven updates:

Just for today: I will accept what is. I will face reality. I will correct those things I can correct and accept those I cannot.

Frank Howard Allen Realtors Annual Awards: Congratulations to the following Frank Howard Allen – Wine Country Group agents who received awards at the FHA Kick-off this morning:
Overall WCG Top Producers:

$ Volume and Units: Daniel Casabonne
Listings: Cheri Stanley
Top Producers – Cloverdale: Jane and Ron Pavelka
Top Producer – Glen Ellen: Constance Sharpe
Top Producers – Healdsburg: $ Volume: Lisa Ehreth and Rico Ruthnick
Units: Jana Jones
Listings: Diane Harris and Deke DeKay
Top Producers – Kenwood: Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker
Top Producer – Napa: Cheri Stanley
Top Producer – Sonoma: Daniel Casabonne
Top Producer – St. Helena: Linda Alioto
(Top Producer awards are for $ Volume, Units Closed and Listings unless otherwise indicated)

Frank Howard Allen Designations:

Chairman’s Circle: Linda Alioto, St. Helena; Beth Bruno, Healdsburg; Daniel Casabonne, Sonoma; Sheila Deignan, Sonoma; Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker, Kenwood; Lisa Ehreth and Rico Ruthnick, Healdsburg; Dee Grohmann, Healdsburg; Diane Harris and Deke DeKay, Healdsburg; Diane Krause, Sonoma; Ron and Jane Pavelka, Cloverdale

President’s Gold Designation: Dianne and Michelle Delfino, Healdsburg; Steve and Marla Ericson, St. Helena; Nancy Gillespie, Sonoma; Jana Jones, Healdsburg; Kendra Martin, Sonoma; Isaac Raboy, Sonoma and Napa; Cheri Stanley, Napa

President’s Silver Designation: Lisa Albertson, Sonoma; Louis Horta, Napa; Carol Lexa, Healdsburg

President’s Bronze Designation: Pat Brown, Sonoma; Mike Caselli, Sonoma; Joyce Davison, Sonoma; Mary Beth Foster, Sonoma; Erin George, Sonoma; Herb Heil, Sonoma; Susan Irvine, Sonoma; Mari Johnson, Sonoma; Penelope La Montagne, Healdsburg; Holly Lee, Sonoma; Scott Rader, Healdsburg; Constance Sharpe, Glen Ellen; Frank Trozzo, Napa; Jeff Veness, St. Helena; and Sheila Whitney, Sonoma

Frank Howard Allen Realtor – Wine Country Group Top Performers Award.

These individuals made significant strides in improving their personal production on a year-to-year basis in 2007. They achieved our incentive award recogntion: Linda Alioto, Beth Bruno, Daniel Casabonne, Sheila Deignan, Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker, Dianne Delfino, Michelle Delfino, Deke DeKay, Lisa Ehreth, Nancy Gillespie, Dee Grohmann, Diane Harris, Louis Horta, Diane Krause, Rico Ruthnick, Cheri Stanley

Frank Howard Allen Realtors Hall of Fame Recognition: There was a special award given relating to the Frank Howard Allen Realtors Hall of Fame. Larry Brackett announced the following at the Kickoff: “There is one agent being added to the Hall of Fame this year. This agent obtained his license in 1997 and was Rookie of the Year for his office. He has never looked back and has consistently worked on and built his business. In the past five years, as his career has hit its stride, he has closed over 260 units (an average of over 50 per year) and over $180,000,000 in sales volume. He has been in the Top Ten of all agents in Sonoma County over the past four years and this is his fourth consecutive year in Frank Howard Allen’s Top Ten. He is known to work with equal vigor on every possible piece of business. I am told that this year he has closed on a $6,500,000 listing and opened a $14,500 mobile home sale, representing each party with the same care and enthusiasm. This Hall of Fame recognition is unique in Frank Howard Allen’s history as this agent is the first member of an Independently Owned and Operated Frank Howard Allen brokerage to attain Hall of Fame status. Warm congratulations to Daniel Casabonne”.

Congratulations to our many Wine Country Group agents who received acknowledgment at this year’s Kick-off celebration.

Kickoff Speaker a real inspiration: Please visit this link to a Press Release on Alison Levine our Keynote Speaker at the Kickoff. She certainly was an inspiration for the over three hundred agents who were present.

Legal Developments: I’m sure that we will be hearing more about the following legal case at our Legal Update this Spring. Please review this link to read about this pending trial. I’ve said to agents in our sales meetings that I recommend using “personal experience and personal statements” when speaking with clients as opposed to generalities such as: “…it’s a great value” as was used by the agent in this case. More to follow.

CAR Memo on Law and Legal Cases: CAR issued the following Memo on changes to the law and significant legal proceedings affecting the real estate industry in 2007. Use the link, log on to CAR and check it out.

FHA Training Coming Up: The next series of Contract Training Classes and Sales Training Classes (Bullseye Training) are coming up soon. Check with your manager for details and I will furnish more information in the next update to the Blog.

Welcome to New Agents: Holly Evans-White, St. Helena, and Miguel Rodarte who just passed his license exam on January 17! Welcome and many years of success to you both!

Closings: Congratulations to the following agents who had closings from 1/21 to 1/25: Felice Torri (Sonoma); Beth Bruno (Healdsburg); Deke DeKay and Diane Harris, Healdsburg; Constance Sharpe, Glen Ellen; Ann Amtower (Healdsburg); and Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); Cheri Stanley of our Napa office and Dee Grohmann of our Healdsburg office had two sales each. Congratulations to all!

“Our heads are round so that thoughts can change direction”. -Francis Picabia, painter and poet (1879-1953)

New Years Resolutions #2: Continuing with Dear Abby’s list of New Years resolutions which she adapted years ago from the original credo of Al-Anon. I’ll share one per blog for the next six updates:

Just for today: I will be happy. I will not dwell on thoughts that depress me.

Website Updates: We are very proud to announce the launching of our website updates for our Wine Country Group offices. Congratulations to Lourdes Sodari for her great work and for the collaboration of Susie Savino, Allyson Valente and others who worked on the project. The new sites contain a fresh new look and great new features. The site is still designed to provide an easily accessible and fully functional search engine for the entire BAREIS IDX database, but it also includes new features such as: Neighborhood data; Market Trends (TrendGraphix data); FHA-WCG Open Houses and “Just Listeds” and a section that features our active Property Websites.

I believe that it is one of the most professional looking and easy to use real estate websites that I have seen. While easy to use, it contains everything that a real estate buyer or seller might need. So, I am very proud to direct my friends and clients to the site. Take a look at www.winecountrygroup.com and let me know what you think.

New Intranet Site: At the same time, Frank Peavey has completed an update to our Intranet site now called My Wine Country Group.com. This gives you ready access to our on line file cabinets, the many software programs that the company provides, Property Website and Agent Website portals, forms and more. It also provides Marketing Updates, Tech Tips and general news of things going on in our seven offices. Once on the site, if you need your log-in information, please check the January 22nd e-mail from Frank, or check with your office administrator. One can no longer access the Intranet through the company website, so bookmark www.mywinecountrygroup.com and get to the intranet directly.

Wine Country Group e-mail addresses: We recognize the energy and independence or our sales agents. As such, we provide at no charge @winecountrygroup.com e-mail addresses, but we do not require that you use them. I would like to encourage you to get a @winecountrygroup.com e-mail address for business purposes. There are at least two advantages: 1) It is consistent branding and can lead people easily to our excellent website; and 2) The wcg.com e-mail account has relatively low spam blockers, so graphic mailings such as FHAReach, etc., do not get filtered out as they may in AOL, Yahoo, or other accounts. You can still keep your prior e-mail account(s) and have them all directed to your Outlook, or other e-mail manager. Call Frank if you have any questions about that and call Alma if you would like to initiate your wcg.com e-mail account.

No Marketing Fees: We are proud of our marketing staff and the job that they do across our Wine Country markets. I believe that we are the only firm to have an Interactive Marketing Specialist and Internet Services Specialist (Lourdes and Allyson) as part of our local team. I’ve heard that other firms have monthly marketing fees equaling $450/month or more. I think that we deliver more marketing punch (Property and Agent Websites, etc.) with no dedicated marketing fees. We’re proud of that.

New Auction of Foreclosed Properties: The next North Bay Hudson and Marshall REO auction is scheduled for February 16th and 17th in Oakland. They are now taking bids on-line. Get your clients registered and preserve a commission opportunity for yourself. Details are on the Hudson and Marshall website, or give me a call if you have any questions..

Education: Thought about getting your SRES (Senior Real Estate Specialist) designation. There is an upcoming two day course being sponsored by NORBAR on February 26th and 27th in Napa. Check here to get more info and get a designation for 2008!

Homes Sold Ad: Susie developed a new “Homes Sold” ad that highlights the good work of all of our agents in 2007. I really like it. Take a look!

Top Performers and Top Producers: Our Top Performers and Top Producers will all be announced at the Kick-off on February 1 and will be published in the Broker Blog on that day – stay tuned. We will have 60 agents attending the Kick-off! if you have signed up and your plans change, please let Alma know ASAP so that someone on the waiting list can use your space. The company does pay for each RSVP. Thanks.

Closings: Congratulations to the following agents who had closings from 1/14 to 1/18: Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Scott Rader (Healdsburg); Pam Giusto (Sonoma); Nicki Rector (Healdsburg); Jana Jones and Kent Mitchell (Healdsburg); Louis Horta (Napa); Erick Rothfeld and Barbara Greenhill (Sonoma); Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood). Cheri Stanley of our Napa office double ended a sale during this period. Congratulations to all!

New Years Resolutions: Isaac Raboy shared with me Dear Abby’s list of New Years resolutions which she adapted years ago from the original credo of Al-Anon. I’ll share one per blog for the next seven updates:
Just for today: I will live through this day only. I will not brood about yesterday or obsess about tomorrow. I will not set far-reaching goals or try to overcome all of my problems at once. I know that I can do something for 24 hours that would overwhelm me if I had to keep it up for a lifetime.

TrendGraphix Updates for 12/07: The analysis across our Wine Country Markets is below, but first I’d like to congratulate all of our agents for twelve months of hard work and productivity in 2007. Our Sonoma office finished the year with a 27% market share for units sold – an even 200 for the year. Our closest competition had 92 sales and 12.4% market share. Our Healdsburg office had 106 sales for the year and nearly reached $100,000,000 in sales volume. They sported a 27.5% market share compared to the nearest competitor’s 8.3%. In all of Sonoma County, Frank Howard Allen Realtors maintained the lead in dollar volume with over $667,000,000 in sales. Six of our Wine Country Group agents finished in the top 50 ($ volume) of all agents in Sonoma County with Dan Casabonne ranked sixth in the county with over $27M. We improved market share in our Cloverdale, Napa and St. Helena offices as well and expect to continue this trend into 2008. Market data follows:

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale at the end of December, 2007 continued its decline from the peak of 906 units in July. Inventory of unsold homes as of 12/31/07 was 19% lower than it was in July. Relative sales have remained fairly steady over that time. In July, about 7% of the inventory went pending that month. In December, about 5% of the inventory went pending. A prominent trend over the entire wine country region is that the percent of sales price to original list price dipped in December. For Napa County, that ratio was 84% compared to what has been an average of 90%. That being said, the median price of closed homes in December, 2007 was just 4.5% lower than that of December, 2006. The price per square foot, however, dropped to $364 from an average well into the mid $400s throughout the year. So, it seems, that larger homes are selling for less – perhaps, qualified buyers taking the opportunity to move up to larger homes in this market.

American Canyon, which has been suffering, had a bump in sales in December to 11 new sales. The market hasn’t experienced double digit sales In one month since April, 2007. Still, at that pace, over a year of inventory remains available. The price per square foot of closed homes in American Canyon seems to have stabilized around $220 per square foot.

In December, the City of Napa saw inventory decline by 21% from the high in July; a sales rate at about 40% of a year ago (27 new sales) and prices per square foot in the $380/sf. range.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) continues to have relatively stable inventory on a year over year basis. 131 homes were for sale as of December 31, ’07 compared with 126 in December, ’06. However, there were only 3 new sales and 3 closings in the month of December, so it was very lean. Comparing the number of sales to available inventory, there are over 43 months of inventory available – that will be a long haul for some if they stick it out.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes for sale at the end of December, 2007 continued its decline from the peak of 2,784 units in September. Inventory of unsold homes as of 12/31/07 was 26% lower than it was at the peak. Relative sales have remained fairly steady over that time. In September, about 8% of the inventory went pending that month. In December, about 7% of the inventory went pending. The median price of closed homes in December, 2007 was a startling $100,000 lower than that of December, 2006 ($462,000 compared to $562,000). That’s a decline of 18% on a year over year basis. The price per square foot dropped to $322 from $359 a year ago – a 10% decline. So, it seems, that larger homes are selling for less – perhaps, qualified buyers taking the opportunity to move up to larger homes in this market. The inventory of unsold homes remains at about 12 months in Sonoma County.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes for sale at the end of December, 2007 continued its decline from the peak of 255 units in September. Inventory of unsold homes as of 12/31/07 was 26% lower than it was in September. Relative sales have remained fairly steady over that time. New sales have been 14, 13, 17 and 13 per month since September. So, if a home remains on the market at this point, it’s likelihood of selling is improving. Still, new sales are less than 55% of what they were in December, 2006, and 14 months of supply remains available.

Healdsburg Trends: The Healdsburg market continues to have relatively stable inventory on a year over year basis. 63 homes were for sale as of December 31, ’07 compared with 60 in December, ’06. Inventory has declined nearly 38% from their peak in September. There were 6 new sales and 8 closings in the month of December, so the combination of lower inventory and moderate sales reduced the inventory to under 8 months supply. This is a low for the Wine Country markets at this time.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale at the end of December, 2007 continued its decline from the peak of 171 units in September. Inventory of unsold homes as of 12/31/07 was 28%% lower than it was in September. Relative sales have remained fairly steady over that time. New sales have been 12, 9, 12 and 11 per month since September. So, if a home remains on the market at this point, it’s likelihood of selling is improving. Still, new sales are less than 55% of what they were in December, 2006, and 12 months of supply remains available. The price per square foot of homes selling in the Windsor market seems to have stabilized at about $300/sf.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale at the end of December, 2007 continued its decline from the peak of 112 units in August. Inventory of unsold homes as of 12/31/07 was 35% lower than it was in September. This is the largest decline of inventory across all of Wine Country. Closings are steady at about 8 units per month. So, if a home remains on the market at this point, it’s likelihood of selling is improving. Inventory is at a 9 month supply based on closings. The price per square foot for homes sold in Cloverdale remains in the $270/sf range.

SRES Designation Course: Is one of your resolutions this year to obtain a real estate designation? Get your SRES (Seniors Real Estate Specialist) designation in a 2-day class on February 26th and 27th in Napa. Check it out and register HERE, or call 800-918-9637.

First Transactions of 2008! The following had the first new listings of 2008 for the WCG: Tom Lawrence, Windsor; Scott Inglis, Sonoma; Bill Streett, Kenwood; Diane Litchfield, Sonoma; Doug DelFava and Susan Parker, Kenwood. And the following were the first to open new escrows: Erin George, Sonoma; Constance Sharpe, Glen Ellen; and Jana Jones, Healdsburg. Make it a great year!

Closings: We had a busy period from 12/31 through 1/13. The following enjoyed closings to start the year: Svetlana Ternovskaya of our Napa office celebrated her first ever closing and then followed up with her second last week – wishing her many more! Linda Alioto and Steve and Marla Ericson double ended a $3,450,000 sale in St. Helena and Beth Bruno represented the buyer of a $3,150,000 home in Healdsburg. Additionally, the following closed transactions: Deke Dekay and Diane Harris, Healdsburg; Ron and Jane Pavelka, Cloverdale; Tiffany Knef, Sonoma; Nancy Gillespie, Sonoma; Frank Lazzarotto, Sonoma; Alicia Robledo, Sonoma; Pam Giusto, Sonoma; Ann Amtower, Healdsburg. Daniel Casabonne, Sonoma and Frank Trozzo of our Napa office had two closings each during this period. And, Cheri Stanley in our Napa office had three closings. Great start to the year by everyone!

Thanks to Cheri Stanley for sharing the following article with me from Sunday’s Contra Costa Times. It is the best description that I have seen of the subprime mortgage collapse and the losses and gains by different entities along the way. It covers billions of dollars of brokerage house losses, the loss of $64 million by eight small towns in northern Norway, to the loss of a new pink bicycle by a young girl in Boston. Two quotes stand out for me: “These are loans based on the borrowers’ ability to refinance rather than the borrowers’ ability to repay,” and “Our assumptions included what we deemed to be a worst case scenario, but history has proven that that worst case scenario was not the worst case.”

It’s a good read. Click HERE for the link to “Betting on Bad Mortgages.”

Here’s to 2008: With thanks to Lord Alfred Tennyson (and Anne O’Brien)

“Ring out, wild bells” from In Memoriam
by Lord Alfred Tennyson

Ring out, wild bells, to the wild sky,
The flying cloud, the frosty light:
The year is dying in the night;
Ring out, wild bells, and let him die.

Ring out the old, ring in the new,
Ring, happy bells, across the snow:
The year is going, let him go;
Ring out the false, ring in the true.

Ring out the grief that saps the mind
For those that here we see no more;
Ring out the feud of rich and poor,
Ring in redress to all mankind.

Ring out a slowly dying cause,
And ancient forms of party strife;
Ring in the nobler modes of life,
With sweeter manners, purer laws.

Ring out the want, the care, the sin,
The faithless coldness of the times;
Ring out, ring out my mournful rhymes
But ring the fuller minstrel in.

Ring out false pride in place and blood,
The civic slander and the spite;
Ring in the love of truth and right,
Ring in the common love of good.

Ring out old shapes of foul disease;
Ring out the narrowing lust of gold;
Ring out the thousand wars of old,
Ring in the thousand years of peace.

Ring in the valiant man and free,
The larger heart, the kindlier hand;
Ring out the darkness of the land,
Ring in the good that is to be.

The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007: If you are working with homeowners who are considering loan modification negotiations with their lender(s) you are probably aware of The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 signed into law by the President on 12/20/07. Visit here to read a synopsis of this act. It is designed to provide tax relief for owners of real estate who are experiencing “debt relief” through loan modifications and restructuring. There is further talk in Congress of applying such treatment to debt relief experienced through short sale or foreclosure, but these bills are some ways off. Counsel your clients to discuss their situation with a CPA or tax attorney so they fully understand the ramifications of the “debt relief” that they may be facing.

Iffy offers: We’ve seen some “iffy” offers on some of our listings. One example involves a “buyer” presenting an “Option to Purchase” to a “short sale” seller with a $1.00 option fee for a nine month option. They offer to “negotiate” the acceptance of the “short sale” amount with the lender and then offer to continue to work with the existing listing agent to sell their option position at a profit. I can’t figure how this is of benefit to the seller or the lender, so let me know if you see how it is more than a means for the “buyer” to double escrow the property for a profit.

Another example offered four different prices at which the “buyer” would purchase property depending on various financing alternatives ranging from all cash (an extraordinary and unrealistically low price) to over asking price based on 100% owner carryback with a wrap around mortgage. In the offer, the seller was to “check” the pricing strategy that they preferred. When we went back to the buyer and said – give us one solid approach that works for you, they didn’t come back with anything with which the seller could work.

Finally, we’ve seen listing agents promoting “quasi” private auctions on short sale properties, encouraging significantly low, and seemingly unrealistic, low bids. They are doing this without having negotiated an approved short sale price with the lender. Kind of like dropping the hook out to go fishing. We have encouraged our agents and clients to avoid these scenarios as a waste of time.

New Auction of Foreclosed Properties Scheduled: We are expecting a new auction of Northern California foreclosed properties to take place on the weekend of February 16th and 17th. One of our agent’s clients is pulling together an investor “pool” and they are intending to buy 25 or more homes at the auction. Follow the details on this Hudson and Marshall website, or stay tuned here for updates. Get your clients ready!

BAREIS Feature: Did you know… that on the BAREIS homepage when you log on there is a section entitled “Your Listings” that provides helpful information regarding your listings? For instance, one of the information items is “Expiring within 14 Days” and if you have two listings expiring within the next fourteen days it will have the number “2”. When you click on the “2”, it will pull up the listing details so you can work on your extensions. Speaking of expireds, that leads to the next topic:

Hotsheet Patterns 12/31/07 to 1/3/08: Where is the inventory going? For Napa County, 88 residential listings (excluding 10 builder listings) expired on 12/31/07. That’s over 10% of the available inventory that was in place on 11/30/07. As of 1/3/07, 22 of these properties were “Back On Market” leaving a 8% net reduction in inventory for the period. The question is whether this pattern will hold. Within the Wine Country Group, our inventory fell from 215 units to 200 units (a 7% reduction) during this period and our average list price fell from $723,000 to $696,000 – a 4% reduction. So it is clear that some of our higher priced listings are taking a rest – at least for now. Our average listing selling price peaked for this year at $941,000 in early July. It has trended downwards since then.

Closings: Congratulations to the following agents who had the last closings of the year over the period from 12/09 to 12/31: Joyce Davison (Sonoma); Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg); Leo Merle (Sonoma); Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Frank Trozzo (Napa); Erin George (Sonoma); Kip Zook (Cloverdale); David Reynolds (Cloverdale) and Kendra Martin (Sonoma). Cheri Stanley of our Napa office had two closings during this period and the following agents had three transactions each during this period: Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma); Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood) and Sheila Deignan of our Sonoma office. Special kudos to Sheila for her first closings since joining the WCG a few months ago – and three in two weeks – keep it going! Congratulations to all and Happy New Year.

Mark the date of the 2008 kickoff – Friday, February 1st – invitations to follow. Here’s to 2008!