Prior Posts – 2009

“The way you do anything is the way you do everything.”   Tom Waits

Thanks to the hard work of our agents and staff, we continue to be a leading firm in the Wine Country Markets which we serve.  We have a bang up finish to the year with 44 transactions scheduled to close this week!  Even if some get delayed, it is a solid finish to a solid year – thanks to everyone.

Hold the date of January 15 if you are planning to take part in our second series of Management Training with Sandy Schaefer.  And hold the morning of January 29 open for the Wine Country Group kick-off.

Will have a summary of our performance and market performance for the end of the year early in January.  For now, I’d like to recognize those agents with closings since the last Broker Blog update on 11/15.  For the dates between 11/16 and 12/27, the following enjoyed closings:

Ellen Politz of our Napa office had her first closing as a new licensee – in fact she had three during this period.  Wishing her many, many more.

Cherie Chooljian of our Sonoma office had her first two closings since joining the Wine Country Group several months ago.  Again, wishing her many more!

Others with closings during this period include:  Erin George (Sonoma);  Leo Merle (Sonoma);  Jeff Veness (St. Helena);  Gina Clyde (Sonoma);  Pat and Norm Brown (Sonoma);  Susan Irvine (Sonoma);  Herb Heil (Sonoma);  Beth Bruno (Healdsburg);  Felice Torri (Sonoma);  Dave Reynolds (Healdsburg);  Faili Vyn (Napa);  Chuck Post (Sonoma);  Carol Figoni (Healdsburg);  Lisa Smith (Healdsburg);  Bill Streett (Sonoma);  Mara Kahn (Sonoma);  Barbara Greenhill (Sonoma);  Tish Thames (Sonoma);  Mari Johnson (Sonoma);  Ann Amtower (Healdsburg);  Kent Mitchell (Healdsburg);  Debby Hendershot (Healdsburg) and Lisa Albertson (Sonoma/Healdsburg).

The following agents had two closings during this period:  Sally Kros (Kelseyville);  Mike Caselli (Sonoma);   Aimee Greco (Napa);  Kendra Martin (Sonoma) and Pam Giusto (Sonoma).

Joyce Davidson (Sonoma);  Jane and Ron Pavelka (Healdsburg/Cloverdale); Deke Dekay and Diane Harris (Healdsburg) and Cheri Stanley (Napa) had three closings each.

Sheila Deignan (Sonoma) and Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen) enjoyed four closings each.

David Barker (Napa) and the Foss Creek Condominium team of Susan Montgomery, Amanda Stampley, Lisa Albertson and Gina Clyde had five closings each.

Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker had six closings.

And Daniel Casabonne tops the list with a whopping ten closings during this six week period.

Congratulations to all and carry on into 2010!

Moving Ahead in 2010, and beyond, wishing everyone a Healthy and Happy New Year.

Market Trends: We have added current Market Graphs and commentary to our website (www.winecountrygroup.com) for each of our Wine Country Markets. Whenever you need to know what’s going on in Wine Country, just visit our Market Trends web pages.

This month, there are some really pronounced milestones in the market. Please review the Market Analysis below, particularly for Sonoma County and Napa County – this is good news for our markets!

Wine Country Group Summary for October, 2009

We closed 76 transaction sides in the October, 2009, more than in any October since 2004 when we closed 83. This is 27% more than we closed in October, 2008 (60). The dollar volume ($33M) was 10% ahead of the volume last October ($30M). Our open sales for the month (74) were a healthy 61% of that for October, 2008 (46), so things are looking good moving into the mid Fall. Our listing inventory (224 units) is 10% ahead of a year ago (203) while in most of our market areas, inventory is down as much as 40% year over year. The average asking price ($929,000) of our current listings is 34% higher than this time a year ago ($695,000). Our pending sales at the end of October (136 units) total $74M in transaction volume compared to 84 units and $49M a year ago. Our agents are working hard to keep us ahead of the competition in most of our markets in year over year productivity.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. In the past twelve months in the Sonoma Valley, we have closed twice as many transactions (231) as our nearest competitors and our agents have achieved a 27.3% market share. For the first ten months of this year, our Healdsburg agents have increased our market share to 25% from 18% for the first ten months of 2008.

Our Napa & St. Helena offices have generated a 31% increase in transaction sides (218) for the first ten months of 2009 compared to 2008. Our Napa County offices have increased their market share by 25% this year while our competitors have had flat or decreasing market share.

We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these changing and tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

October, 2009 – Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Napa County (590) was 33% below the inventory (881) at this time last year and is the lowest inventory of available homes since March of 2006, three and one half years ago. New sales (154) were a whopping 60% ahead of the pace a year ago and were the highest monthly level since August of 2005. Of the 154 new sales in Napa County in October, 103 of them were in the City of Napa. This is a 87% increase in the number of sales in the City from this time last year and the highest number of sales in the City since September of 2006. This certainly signals strength in the local housing market. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in October was $270/sf, a 38% increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. The county in general is down to 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon has just 1.4 months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.4 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. 31% of the available inventory in the county remains “Up Valley” at the end of October.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 182 units at the end of October. This compares with 189 at the end of October, 2008, so it has been generally consistent throughout the year. Sales for the month (14) remained close to the level of last month and were 27% ahead of the number of sales (11) posted in October, ’08. The Up Valley market seems to be gaining some traction at the end of this year. Available listings in Up Valley represent 31% percent of the overall Napa County inventory, a relatively high percentage. The average asking price of the current Up Valley inventory is $2.1M compared to the average price of the homes that closed in October being $1.0M so the high end remains the weakest segment of the market as in other Wine Country markets.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,308) in Sonoma County at the end of October was 44% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest level of inventory in the County for any month since December of 2005. New sales (620) in October were 13% ahead of the pace in October, 2008 (551) and 17% ahead of that of last month (528). This is the highest level of new home sales in the County since August of 2005 – marking a new milestone in the housing recovery. The median price of homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $344,000. For the first time since June of 2006, the year over year median price was higher – in this case 3% higher. That means that the median price of sold homes has been lower on a year over year basis for over three years and now has reversed that trend.

The average price per square foot of properties sold in October ($244/sf) was equal to that of a year ago and 13% ahead of the low price per square foot ($216/sf) experienced in January of 2009. Indications are if you bought then, you have experienced some appreciation. The market seems to be certainly segmented and stuck in the higher ranges as the average asking price of unsold inventory is $1.1M compared to the average price of the units sold in October being $462K. Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.1 month supply of inventory.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (181) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of October was 21% below that for October, 2008, but it has be relatively steady since December of ’08 – ranging from 166 t0 200 units. There were 42 new sales for the month (compared to 35 a month ago and 33 in October, ’08). The Sonoma Valley market also seems to be stalled in the higher end as the average asking price of the inventory is $1.1M compared to the average sales price of units sold in October being $462K. There were 31 closings in the Sonoma Vally in October and our Sonoma Valley offices closed 26 units. We obviously handled some outside of the Valley, but it seems we got a good share of the Valley closings for the month.

Healdsburg Trends: New sales (22) in October remained at a relatively high level and is 37% of the sales pace (16) a year ago. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (95) in Healdsburg at the end of October was slightly below that of last month (101) and it was 15% below the available inventory (112) in October, ’08. This compares to inventory that is 44% lower in the County overall. Months of inventory based on current sales rate is 4.3. The Healdsburg market continues to show signs of rebounding.

Cloverdale Trends: Sales in Cloverdale for the month of October (13) remained about equal to the month earlier when there were 15 sales and was about equal with the 15 sales in October of 2008. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (31) at the end of October, 2009 is about equal to that of last month and it was 66% lower than a year ago. It is the lowest level of available inventory since May of 2005 – four and a half years ago. There remains only a 2.4 month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of October rose again to the 300,000 level which has been pretty consistent through the year. The median price of homes and condominiums sold in Cloverdale has bounced back from a low of $200,000 in March of this year.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (49) at the end of October was 60% lower than the inventory (122) in October, 2008. There were 38 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in October which is an increase of 31% from the level (29) in October ’08. The current market has 1.3 months of supply based on the current sales pace. Prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot.

Solano County: Since we have closed 89 homes in Solano County this year so far, we keep an eye on the trends there as well. Inventory is down to 736 units – 72% lower than in October ’08. New sales for the month of October totaled 745 units – 27% higher than last year – and more than the number of available units at the beginning of the month (711). This creates just a one month supply of inventory at the current sales pace. The average price per square foot of closed homes for the month was $128.00, up each month from the low of $119.00/sf registered in April of this year.

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Management Training: Our first program in Management Training with Sandy Schaefer was a big success, so we are planning our next program. All agents manage their own business, if not an office, so everyone learns key skills from this program – particularly in leadership and planning. The next program will begin on January 15 and 16 and continue on the 22nd and 29th. We are subsidizing the cost to $250.00 per person including course materials. If you are interested in attending, please let me know.

Business Planning for 2010: It’s that time of year to plan for the coming year. Your office managers have business planning forms to assist you and I recommend you consider the following questions as you undertake setting your plans for next year:

1. Review 2009 by asking these questions: Did you meet your goals? If not, why not? Where did your leads come from? Where did your sales come from? How would you describe your situation now?

2. Write down your goals. I like what Stephen Covey says about starting with the end in sight. What numbers (income, houses sold, etc.) do you want in December of 2010? What specific steps will you need to take to reach those numbers? Who will hold you accountable for reaching your goals?

3. Analyze your operations. How do you accomplish your goals? Are you being efficient? Who will do your non-dollar productive activities? How do you handle leads now and what can you do to improve this? What do your key team members need so they can help you achieve the goals? Do you have an ideal weekly and daily schedule that helps your business run smoothly? Do you have systems in place that make overall operations run efficiently?

4. Evaluate your business strategy. Perform a SWOT analysis (What are your Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for 2009?). How will you capitalize on your strengths and opportunities? How will you strengthen your weaknesses and deal with threats?

5. Examine your sales and marketing efforts. What marketing channels worked and which ones failed? Can you adjust the ones that failed and make them more successful? If so, how? Can you make the successful ones even better? If so, how? How will potential clients know you exist and when they realize you exist, do your marketing messages compel them to contact you? How will your ideal customer evaluate your services and make decisions? Are your scripts effective? If not, how will you make them more powerful? Do your scripts reflect the current market?

6. Get a handle on your finances. Do you have an accounting software package or system that gives you profit and loss statements, balance sheets and budget projections? Are you attaching costs to your efforts so that you can see if you’re getting the best return on your investments of time and money? Are you tracking your results?

Please let me know if I can assist you in anyway in developing your 2010 business plan.

FHA-Wine Country Group Kick-off: Save the date: January 29, 2010 for the Wine Country Group kick-off and Recognition Event. We will be returning to the Oakmont Golf Club and will have a fun time and an inspiring speaker. The program will begin at 8:30 am and run until 11:00. Save the date!

Staffing over the Holidays: Please be aware that our support staff will have a holiday on Friday, November 27th, following Thanksgiving.

Link to Home Buyer Credit info: Here’s a link to CAR’s outline on the extended Home Buyer Tax Credit. This includes higher income limits and non-first time buyers as well as first time buyers. Share this with your clients! http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/taxcreditextended/

Closings: Congratulations to the following for closings in the last thirty days: New agent to the WCG Liz Manfree (St. Helena) enjoyed her first closing with the firm. Wishing her many more!
Others with sales include: Carol Lexa (Healdsburg); Herb Heil (Sonoma); Terri D’Amico (Sonoma); Charlie Laughlin (Napa); Helaine Forte (Napa); Bill Streett (Sonoma); Diane Krause (Sonoma); Joyce Davison (Sonoma); Erin George (Sonoma); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Alicia Robledo (Sonoma); Howard Powell (Sonoma); Gina Clyde (Sonoma); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Frank Lazzarotto (Sonoma); and Hank Lane (Healdsburg).

The following agents had two closings in this period: Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Lark Raymond (Napa); Mari Johnson (Sonoma); Leo Merle (Sonoma); and Jane and Ron Pavelka (Healdsburg/Cloverdale).

Corrie Sterbentz (Sonoma); Lisa Smith (Healdsburg) and Susan Montgomery (Healdsburg) had three closings each.

The Foss Creek Condominium team (Lisa Albertson, Gina Clyde, Susan Montgomery and Amanda Stampley) had four closings for the month. Also with four closings were David Barker (Napa); Lisa Albertson (Sonoma/Healdsburg); and Jana Jones (Healdsburg).

Daniel Casabonne (Sonoma) and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood) had six closings each during the past month.

And, Cheri Stanley tops the bill with nine closings in the past month – over two a week – a healthy pace!

Congratulations to all.

Extraordinary Things Happen When Our Sign Goes Up:
This is the new “tag line” that we are featuring on our website and in our advertising. Some of the extraordinary things are:
Reliable Communication; Intelligent Marketing; Extensive Networking; Expert Negotiation; Hands-on Management; Streamlined Escrows; One Hundred Years of Experience; Quick Sales = Happy Clients.

Let us know if you think of some other Extraordinary Things that Happen When our Sign Goes Up.

Training:  Next Legal Update Date is: Tuesday, November 3, San Rafael

NorBAR is sponsoring trainings on the new RPA to be released in November. Look for trainings in your local area and we will look into bringing a resource into our offices to cover the topics.

BAREIS Photo Contest: I know that you are all talented photographers. You can get your photo on the BAREIS home page and earn a free month of dues if you submit a winning photo. Deadline is this Weds., Oct. 20 at 5 pm, so get those photos to [email protected].

Wine Country Group Summary for September, 2009:

We closed 210 transaction sides in the 3rd Q of 2009, more than in any 3rd Q since 2005 when we closed 212. This is 16% more than we closed in the 3rd Q 2008 (181). The dollar volume was 5% below the volume last year due to the lower average prices of our transactions. On the positive side looking ahead, the average asking price ($855,000) of our 229 listings as of October 12 was 5% higher than this time a year ago – and inventory is actually ahead of a year ago at 229 listings compared to 207. This is ahead of the general market conditions where inventory is lower year over year in our markets.

Our September results were strong month over month and year over year and our pending sales as of 10/12/09 (129) are 46% ahead of that of a year ago. Accounting for lower price points, the current dollar volume of our pending sales ($65M) is just 14% ahead of a year ago ($57M).

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. In the past twelve months, we closed 2.4 times the number of transactions as our nearest competitors in our Sonoma office. We increased our market share in Sonoma for the first nine months of this year to 28.4% compared to 25.5% a year ago. Our Healdsburg office has increased it’s market share for the first nine months of the year to 26.5% from 19.4% for the first nine months of 2008.

Our Napa & St. Helena offices have generated a 29% increase in transaction sides (197) for the first nine months of 2009 compared to 2008. We are continuing to grow our Napa Valley business at a healthy pace. We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

September, 2009 – Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Napa County (614) was 29% below the inventory (867) at this time last year and it was equal to the inventory last month. New sales (149) were a whopping 62% ahead of the pace a year ago. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in September remained the same as last month, $263.00 per sf, a steady increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. The county in general is down to 4.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon has just one months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.9 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. 30% of the available inventory in the county is located “Up Valley” at the end of September.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 184 units at the end of September. This compares with 165 at the end of September, 2008. Sales for the month (16) remained at the level of last month and were well ahead of the 4 sales that posted in September, ’08. Perhaps the market is starting to finally warm up. Unlike our other Wine Country markets, inventory is up 12 % from a year ago, but it has decreased over the past three months. Up Valley available listings represent 30% percent of the overall Napa County inventory – an unusual occurrence.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,393) in Sonoma County at the end of September was 42% lower than a year ago. New sales (594) in September were 13% ahead of the pace in September, 2008 and equal to that of last month. The median price of homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $325,000, equal to that of a month ago and 6% lower than a year ago. Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.3 month supply of inventory, either an indication of a pending sellers market, or, more likely, a slowing of the sales pace.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (191) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of September was 19% below that for September, 2008 and is equal to the inventory of last month. There were 39 new sales for the month (compared to 43 a month ago and 25 in September, ’08).

Healdsburg Trends: New sales (18) in September remained at a relatively high level and similar to the sales pace (15) a year ago. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (101) in Healdsburg at the end of September was slightly below that of last month (109) and it was 11% below the available inventory (113) in September, ’08. This compares to inventory that is 42% lower in the County overall. The Healdsburg market continues to show signs of rebounding.

Cloverdale Trends: Sales in Cloverdale for the month of September (14) weakened from the month earlier when there were 25 sales and was about equal with the 13 sales in September of 2008. The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (36) at the end of September, 2009 is about equal to that of last month and it was 58% lower than a year ago. There remains only a 2.6 month supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of September dropped to $278,000 from $345,000 in August, but it was higher than the $275,000 median price of homes closed in September, ’08. The median price of homes sold in Cloverdale has bounced around from a low of $200,000 to a high of $345,000 in the last twelve months, but this is the first month where we have seen year over year increase in the median price of sold homes in any of the markets that we serve in the Wine Country.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (51) at the end of September was remarkably less than the number of new sales in the market in September which was 54. Inventory is 62% lower than a year ago and sales are 103% ahead of a year ago. The current status of the market is less than one month supply of inventory. Prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot. It remains interesting that there were new sales of 35 units, 33 units and 35 units in May, June and July of this year, but there were closings of only 30 units, 19 units and 24 units in July, August and September. So, we are either having delays in financing – which seems pretty prevalent at this time – or, there are a lot of distressed sales which can take longer to close, or we are having a lot of cancellations.

Solano County: Since we have closed 81 homes in Solano County this year so far, we keep an eye on the trends there as well. Inventory is down to 711 units – 74% lower than in September ’08. New sales for the month of September totaled 748 units – 31% higher than last year. This creates just a one month supply of inventory at the current sales pace. The average price per square foot of closed homes for the month was $130.00, up each month from the low of $119.00/sf registered in April of this year.

Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Closings: Congratulations to Charlie Laughlin of our Napa office who had his first closing with FHA-WCG during this recent period. He also served ably on the Legal Update agent panel this morning! The following agents also had closings from 9/14 to 10/09. There were a lot of them – which is a good thing!

Randy Haak, Glen Ellen; Corrie Sterbentz, Sonoma; Ann Amtower, Healdsburg; Dee Grohmann, Healdsburg; Bill Streett, Sonoma; Faeli Vyn, Napa; Barbara Sommerville, Sonoma; Deke Dekay and Diane Harris, Healdsburg; Dan Gallagher, Sonoma; Carol Lexa, Healdsburg; Lark Raymond, Napa; Gina Clyde, Sonoma/Healdsburg; Dave Reynolds, Healdsburg; Linda Alioto, St. Helena; Jana Jones, Healdsburg; Hank Lane, Healdsburg; Susan Montgomery, Healdsburg; Helaine Forte, Napa; and Patty Keiser, Glen Ellen.

The following agents had two closings over the past month: Mara Kahn, Sonoma; and Herb Heil, Sonoma.

The following agents had three closings in the past thirty days: Erick Rothfeld, Sonoma; Lisa Albertson, Sonoma and Erin George, Sonoma.

Cheri Stanley of our Napa Office had four closings.

Mike Caselli and Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma Office and David Barker of our Napa office each had six closings for this period.

Jane and Ron Pavelka based in Cloverdale had seven closings for this period and, to cap it off, Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office.had a whopping fourteen closings in the past month – over three a week – something to strive for!

Well done by all and congratulations!

Welcome to Scott Rader as a Partner in the Wine Country Group: We issued a Press Release this week welcoming long term North Bay real estate broker Scott Rader as a partner in the Wine Country Group. Scott has worked with our firm over the past twelve years and was responsible for expanding the Healdsburg office and establishing offices in Windsor and Cloverdale. Scott will be a great resource for the firm and it’s agents. If you would like a copy of the Press Release, just let me know.

Seven New Rules for First Time Home Buyers: A recent article by Ron Lieber in the New York Times suggests seven new rules for first time home buyers. Of course, if you have been in the business for a while, you will recognize some of these rules as old rules before the lenders got goofy – in any case they are the rules of the day:
1. Start with the basics: A minimum of 20% down payment; a fixed rate loan; don’t spend more than 35% of your pretax income on mortgage, property tax and property insurance payments. With student and other loans included, do not exceed 45% of your pretax income.
2. Consider your income: The best case for “stretching” for a house is that first time buyers in their 20s and 30s income will grow more quickly than older people buying their second or third home.
3. Bow to Unknowns: There are many reasons that a young couple, with both individuals working at present, may find that they need to live on one income, or on one full time and one part time income. It is wise to do financial modelling for these circumstances.
4. Map out expenses: Studies show that many homeowners underestimate the cost of maintaining a home. One source recommends budgeting 3.6% of the original purchase price of a home per year for maintainance and 4.5% of the original purchase price per year for an older home.
5. Buy Best (or Cheapest): Some suggest buying your “dream home” if you can afford it – but if you can’t, don’t buy the “next best thing”, buy a less expensive starter home that will allow you to save towards that dream home later on.
6. Stretch the House: This refers to stretching your time in a home and making continual “expansion improvements” to the first home rather than incurring all of the transactional costs of buying a series of homes.
7. The Eight Hour Rule: All of the above rules vary from circumstance to circumstance. The old fall back “eight hour rule” says that if the impending purchase and future ownership expenses are keeping you up at night – maybe the purchase should be postponed until you are more comfortable with the decision.

Wine Country Group Summary for August, 2009

We closed 70 transaction sides in August, more than in any August since 2005 when we closed 75. This is 15% more than we closed in August, 2008 (61). But, as has been the case most of the year, the dollar volume was 15% below the volume last year. On the positive side looking ahead, the average asking price ($900,000) of our 250 listings at the end of August remained 32% higher than this time a year ago – so higher selling prices are on the horizon. Our Sonoma and Healdsburg offices had particularly strong results in August.

We continue to receive multiple offers on our REO listings as the demand is strong and the supply has weakened. We are still expecting a second wave of foreclosure properties as our Bank of America partner is expecting their nationwide inventory of REOs on the market to jump from 30,000 to 70,000 in the next six to twelve months.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. In the past twelve months, we closed 2.4 times the number of transactions as our nearest competitors in our Sonoma office. Our Healdsburg office has increased it’s market share for the first eight months of the year to 25.4% from 18.1% for the first eight months of 2008. Our Napa office has generated a 41% increase in transaction sides (178) for the first eight months of 2009 compared to 2008. The firm just ahead of us in market share in Napa only increased their business by 16% in comparison, so we are continuing to grow our Napa Valley business at a healthy pace. We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

(Late update: We’ve opened at least 16 escrows in the past two days. Either the agents have been holding out putting them “on the board”, or it’s gotten a bit hot!)

August, 2009 – Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Napa County (613) was 31% below the inventory (884) at this time last year and represents the tenth month in a row that inventory has fallen month over month. New sales (174) were a whopping 75% ahead of the pace a year ago. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in August reached $266.00, a steady increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. The county in general is down to 3.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon has just one months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.4 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. One third of the available inventory in the county is located “Up Valley” at the end of August. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), though heavy in inventory with 203 units, did experience and up tick in sales in August to 17. This is the highest number of new sales in any month in Up Valley since April of 2007 when there were 20 sales. Perhaps the market is starting to finally warm up. Unlike our other Wine Country markets, inventory is up 12 % from a year ago, but it has decreased over the past three months. Up Valley available listings represent 33% percent of the overall Napa County inventory – a very unusual occurrence. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGrahix reports.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,438) in Sonoma County at the end of August was 44% lower than a year ago. New sales (648) in August were 40% ahead of the pace in August, 2008 and 13% ahead of last month. The median price of homes closed in August in Sonoma County was $325,000, slightly off from a month ago, but a solid 14% ahead of the low median price point of $285,000 that was reached in February. Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.2 month supply of inventory, either an indication of a pending sellers market, or, more likely, a slowing of the sales pace. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (190) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of August was 21% below that for August, 2008 and 11% lower than the inventory of last month. There were 45 new sales for the month (compared to 38 a month ago and 30 in August, ’08). The median sales price in Sonoma Valley in August dropped to $370,000 from $504,000 last month, so there were fewer sales in the high end and perhaps more condominium closings. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Healdsburg Trends: New sales (21) in August remained at a relatively high level. They were 91% ahead of the new sales pace a year ago. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (109) in Healdsburg at the end of August was slightly higher than that of last month (104) but was 13% below the available inventory (125) in August, ’08. This market is certainly showing signs of rebounding. The average days on market for the 20 closed sales in Healdsburg last month was 91 days which is a more rapid turnover than most of the past year. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Cloverdale Trends: Sales in Cloverdale for the month of August remained strong at 24. This is the highest sales pace for a single months since February of 2005 when there were also 24 sales. The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (37) at the end of August, 2009 is slightly ahead of last month and creates a supply of only 1.5 months of homes based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of August was $346,000, the highest level since August of 2008 when it was $394,000. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (58) at the end of August is 58% lower than it was a year ago. And, with a sales pace of 37 new sales for the month, the market is at a low of 1.6 months of inventory. The sales price to original listing price remains a healthy 99%. and prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot. It is interesting that there were new sales of 35 units, 33 units and 38 units in May, June and July of this year, but there were closings of only 29 units, 29 units and 16 units in June, July and August. So, we are either having delays in financing – which seems pretty prevalent at this time – or we are having a lot of cancellations in this market. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Legal Update: Mark the dates: Tuesday, 10/20, 8:30 am in Rohnert Park or Tuesday, 11/3, 8:30 am in San Rafael. Risk management requires all of our attendance at one of these presentations.

Closings: First of all, congratulations to Jane Barker of our Napa office for closing her first ever escrow (only happens once!) on September 1. Wishing her many, many more. Other closings for the period 8/24 to 9/11 include: Erin George, Sonoma; Kent Mitchell, Healdsburg; Diane Krause, Sonoma; Dan Gallagher, Sonoma; Lark Raymond, Napa; Carol Lexa, Healdsburg; Joyce Davison, Sonoma; Diane Litchfield, Sonoma; Leo Merle, Sonoma; Herb Heil, Sonoma; Constance Sharpe, Glen Ellen; Robyn Makurak, Sonoma; Ann Amtower, Healdsburg; Cheri Stanley, Napa; Hank Lane, Healdsburg; Pam Giusto, Sonoma; Monica Hernandez, Healdsburg.

The following agents had two sales during this period: Faeli Vyn, Napa (and her son got married); Pat and Norm Brown, Sonoma; and Sally Kros of Kelseyville, Lake County.

Daniel Casabonne, Sonoma; David Barker, Napa and the Foss Creek team of Lisa Albertson, Susan Montgomery and Gina Clyde each had three closings during this period – and Lisa had one extra on her own!

Finally, Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker had four closings during this period.

Congratulations to all!

The Three R’s:  I was reminded of the “Three R’s” today:
    Respect for self
    Respect for others
    Responsibility for all of one’s actions

Training:   Next Legal Update Dates are: 
      Tuesday, Oct. 20 – Rohnert Park and
      Tuesday, November 3, San Rafael

CAR Red Alert:  I encourage you to respond to CAR’s call for action opposing AB 827 and 985 by calling 1-800-961-3302.  It’s easy and effective.  

Wine Country Group Summary for July, 2009:

We closed 70 transaction sides in July, more than in any July since 2005 when we closed 73.  This is 20% more than we closed in July, 2008 (59).  But, as has been the case all year, the dollar volume was only 10% ahead of the volume last year.  But it was ahead – and that is good!   Also on the positive side, the average asking price of our 236 listings at the end of July remained 33% higher than this time a year ago – so higher selling prices are on the horizon.  We continue to receive multiple offers on our REO listings as the demand is strong and the supply has weakened.  We currently have 18 offers on a bank owned property in a desirable part of Solano County.  Recent comps indicated a list price of $399,000.  The home sold in 2005 for $795,000, and we are receiving offers in excess of $500,000.   A bit of rebalancing.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets.  In the past twelve months, we closed two and times as many transactions as our nearest competitors in our Sonoma and Healdsburg offices.  Our Napa office has generated a 54% increase in transaction sides for the first seven months of 2009 compared to 2008.  The current market leaders only increased their business by 26% and 23% respectively, so we are continuing to grow our Napa Valley business at a healthy pace.  We are a solid number three firm in units sold in Napa County.  We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

August, 2009 – Market Analysis:

Napa County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Napa County (634) was 28% below the inventory (880) at this time last year.  New sales (174) were a whopping 49%% ahead of the pace a year ago. As in most parts of wine country markets, the median price of homes closed in Napa County seems to have reached it’s low point ($310,000) in February of this year.  In July, the median price of the closed homes was $350,000.   The average price per square foot of the homes closed in July reached $261.00 a steady increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00.  The county in general is down to 3.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  American Canyon has just one months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.3 months – so it is mostly Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory.  Unusually, over a third of the available inventory in the county is located “Up Valley”.    

The sale of distressed properties (bank owned sales and short sales) represented 57% of the closed escrows for the month of July, 2009.  75% of the 317 contingent or pending homes waiting to close are distressed properties, but only 18% of the active listings are distressed sales.  So, pending the release of additional foreclosed properties by banks (something we have been anticipating for several months), the market is fairly stabilized with conventional listings.  We might expect to see a slow down in the sales pace month over month as the distressed sales are making up such a smaller part of the market over the next several months. Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends:  The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) continues to be the slowest market in the region.  There are 204 properties available and there were only 12 new sales in the month of July.  That represents a 17 month supply of inventory.  Unlike our other Wine Country markets, inventory is up 15 % from a year ago.  Up Valley available listings represent 33% percent of the overall Napa County inventory – a very unusual occurrence.   Homes take over one and a half times as long to sell in the Up Valley (146 average days on market) compared to entire County (95 days).  The spring market never gained traction in Up Valley this year – it will be interesting to see when this market will kick into gear.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGrahix reports.

Sonoma County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,485) in Sonoma County at the end of July was 42% lower than a year ago, but slightly higher than the 1,432 available last month.  New sales (640) in July were 41% ahead of the pace in July, 2008 and 11% ahead of last month.  The median price of homes closed in July in Sonoma  County was $340,000 an increase from the low median price point of $285,000 that was reached in February.  If prices continue to bump forward at the current pace, the median price at the end of next month might be equal to that of August, 2008 ($355,000) meaning the market would have been stable in price on a year over year basis.  We’ll see.   Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.3 month supply of inventory, either an indication of a pending sellers market, or, more likely, a slowing of the sales pace.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Sonoma Valley Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (213) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of July was 12% below that  for July, 2008 and slightly ahead of the inventory of last month.  There were 41 new sales for the month (compared to 35 a month ago and 33 in July, ’08).  The median sales price in Sonoma Valley in July ($504,000) was just slightly below the median sales price ($518,000) in July, 2008.  Overall, the Sonoma Valley market seems to be reaching a stage of “good health”.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Healdsburg Trends:  New sales (23) in July remained at a relatively high level.  They were 156% ahead of the new sales pace a year ago.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (104) in Healdsburg at the end of July was slightly higher than that of last month (96) but was 10% below the available inventory (116) in July, ’08.  This market is certainly showing signs of rebounding. The average days on market for the 15 closed sales in Healdsburg last month was 134 days – so things are taking a while!  Selling price to original list price was 86% for last month’s sales, still a soft figure for our Wine Country markets.  The sales activity in Healdsburg clearly is in the below $1,000,000 price range.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (31) at the end of July, 2009 is the lowest that it has been in the past fifteen months.  It is 67% lower than this time a year ago.  Sales remain strong at 23 for the month, so there is only 1.3 months of inventory available at the current sales pace.  The median price per square foot ($203.00) is 30% ahead of the low median price per square foot ($156.00) in March of this year.  The Cloverdale market may have trouble sustaining the current sales pace due to the lack of inventory and the absence of distressed sale properties – but, perhaps, reluctant sellers may see that the market has turned their way and consider going on the market.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Windsor Trends:  The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (54) at the end of July is 63% lower than it was a year ago.  And, with a sales pace of 44 new sales for the month, the market is at an astounding low of 1.2 months of inventory.  The sales price to original listing price is a healthy 99%. and prices have stabilized at about $200 per square foot.  The median price ($360,000) of the homes closed in July is 11% ahead of the median price ($325,000) level in April of this year – the seemingly low point in the market.  Clearly, this market needs inventory and sellers who have been on the sidelines should be encouraged to get into the game while the market is in their favor.  It will be interesting to see how this market goes through the balance of the summer.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

Closings:  Congratulations to Carol Figone who closed her very first real estate transaction as a new licensee on 8/11 after being with the company just a few months.  Wishing Carol many, many more in her career.

Others who enjoyed closings in the past month include:  Randy Haak, Glen Ellen;  Barbara Greenhill, Sonoma;  Art Bowen, Napa;  Ann Amtower, Healdsburg;  Hank Lane, Healdsburg;  Bill Streett, Sonoma;  Aimee Greco, Napa;  Barbara Sommerville, Sonoma;  Beth Bruno, Healdsburg;  Mara Kahn, Sonoma;  Carol Lexa, Healdsburg;  Lark Raymond, Napa;  Diane Krause, Sonoma;  Penelope La Montagne, Healdsburg;  and Diane Litchfield, Sonoma.  

The following agents had two closings over the past month:  Sheila Deignan, Sonoma;  Mari Johnson, Sonoma;  and Svetlana Ternovskaya.

The following agents had three closings in the past thirty days:  Felice Torri, Sonoma;  Linda Alioto, St. Helena;  Herb Heil, Sonoma;  Frank Trozzo, Napa;  and Deke Dekay and Diane Harris, Healdsburg.

Lisa Albertson, Gina Clyde and Susan White enjoyed four closings in the Foss Creek Subdivision in Healdsburg in the past month.  

Cheri Stanley of our Napa Office had six closings and David Barker of our Napa office and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office had seven closings each in the past month.

To cap it off, Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma office had a whopping twelve closings in the past month – three a week – something to strive for!

Well done by all and congratulations!

Moving On:  Many of you know that Earl and I have acquired the Mayo family’s interest in Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group, effective this week.  Over the past thirteen years of our partnership, Henry has been an instrumental part of the growth of our firm and he has always been fully supportive of the agents, staff and his partners.  I’ve learned a lot from Henry over the years and I appreciate the experience that he has always been willing to share.  We will miss Henry as a partner, but we know he will remain active around the valley and that our paths will cross many times in the community.  I believe that I can say from all of us involved with the firm over the years:  Thanks Henry, and Well Done!

Best Real Estate Company:   For the eight consecutive year, Frank Howard Allen Realtors is named as the “Best Real Estate Company” in the 20th annual readers poll in the North Bay Biz magazine.  Congratulations to all of our agents and staff, and to all of the agents and staff of all of the Frank Howard Allen Realtor family offices.  I believe that it is worth mentioning here that Frank Howard Allen Realtors will be celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2010.  A milestone with which we are proud to be associated.

Wine Country Group Summary for 1st Half of 2009

We closed 351 transaction sides in the first half of 2009.  This is more than in any similar six month period since the first six months of 2005 and is 25% more transaction sides than in the first six months of 2008.  However, while the transaction activity is up, the total dollar sales volume is down by 25% to $139.6 million this year compared to $183.3 million last year.  Our average sales price for 2009 has been slightly under $400,000 compared to $650,000 a year ago.  On the positive side, the average asking price of our 236 listings at the end of June has climbed to $1,000,000 – the highest level in three years.  We also closed multiple million dollar sales in June of this year including a $6.5 million dollar sale.  In our various wine country markets, prices seemed to have bottomed as of February of this year, so things look to be improving.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets.  For the first six months of 2009, we closed two and one half times as many transactions as our nearest competitors in our Sonoma and Healdsburg offices.  Our Napa office has generated a 56% increase in transaction sides for the first half of 2009 compared to 2008.  The current market leaders only increased their business by 29% and 26% respectively, so we are continuing to grow our Napa Valley business at a healthy pace.  We respect the hard work that all of our agents are doing in these tough times to help us to remain market leaders.

June, 2009 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Napa County (663) was 25% below the inventory (884) at this time last year.  New sales (107) were 13% ahead of the pace a year ago while closed escrows (103) were flat year over year.  The sale of distressed properties (bank owned sales and short sales) represented 51% of the closed escrows for the month of June, 2009, but only 18% of the active listings are distressed sales.  So, pending the release of additional foreclosed properties by banks (something we have been anticipating for several months), the market is fairly stabilized with conventional listings.  We might expect to see a slow down in the sales pace month over month as the distressed sales are making up such a smaller part of the market over the next several months.  As in most parts of wine country markets, prices seem to have reached their low point in February of this year and have been increasing steadily since then.  Please contact me for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends:  The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) continues to be the slowest market in the region.  There are 210 properties available and only 7 sold in the month of June.  That represents a 30 month supply of inventory and, unlike our other Wine Country markets, inventory is up 23% from a year ago.  Up Valley available listings represent 33% percent of the overall Napa County inventory – a very unusual occurrence.  Homes take over one and a half times as long to sell Up Valley (169 average days on market) compared to entire County (99 days).  The Spring market never gained traction in Up Valley this year – it will be interesting to see when this market will kick into gear.  

Sonoma County Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,432) in Sonoma County at the end of June was 45% lower than a year ago.  New sales (466) in June were consistent with the pace in June 2008.  Distressed sales, either bank owned, in foreclosure, or “short sales” (where the lender accepts less than the full payoff of their loan) represented 57% of all closings in June, 2009 compared to 73% in the early part of this year.  Distressed listings represent only 21% of the current inventory compared to 55% in February.  So, pending the release of additional foreclosed properties by banks (something we have been anticipating for several months), the market is fairly stabilized with conventional listings.  We might expect to see a slow down in the sales pace month over month as the distressed sales are making up such a smaller part of the market over the next several months.  The median price of homes closed in June in Sonoma  County was $300,000, an increase from the low median price point of $285,000 that was reached in February.  Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 3.1 month supply of inventory, either an indication of a pending seller’s market, or, more likely, a slowing of the sales pace.  

Sonoma Valley Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (194) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of June was 20% below that of June 2008, and slightly ahead of the inventory of last month.  There were 32 new sales for the month (compared to 39 a month ago and 30 in June ’08).   Distressed sales (bank owned properties and short sales) represented 46% of closed sales in June, 2009 and currently represent 13% of the available inventory.  This compares to distressed sales representing 33% of the inventory in February.  So, like elsewhere, the distressed properties are being absorbed.  We can expect two trends:  Sales pace will slow as these properties disappear and prices should climb as they have done in the past several months.  The average sales price in Sonoma Valley in June ($700,000) was significantly higher than the median sales price ($412,000) so there are some sales occurring in the higher price brackets including a $6.5 million dollar sale that was listed by our office.  This compares to sales in Napa County where the average price was $479,000 and the median price was $380,000 – much closer.  

Healdsburg Trends:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (96) in Healdsburg at the end of June was slightly higher than that of last month (88) but was 24% below the available inventory (127) in June 2008.  This market is certainly showing signs of rebounding.  New sales (20) in June were the highest in the past 15 months continuing an increasing trend that began in March of this year.  Sales have taken a while to happen.  The average days on market for the 15 closed sales in Healdsburg last month was 221 days – but they closed!  Selling price to original list price has also taken a bit of a beating – it has been between 75% and 85% for the past several months – a low figure for our Wine Country markets.  Most of the activity seems to be in the below $1,000,000 price range.  

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (35) at the end of June 2009 is the lowest that it has been in the past fifteen months.  It is 61% lower than this time a year ago.  Sales remain strong at 15 for the month, so there is only 2.3 months of inventory available at the current sales pace.  The median price ($302,000) for the month of June has rebounded from the low in March of this year which was $210,000.  The Cloverdale market may have trouble sustaining the current sales pace due to the lack of inventory and the absence of distressed sale properties – but, perhaps, reluctant sellers may see that the market has turned their way and consider going on the market.  

Windsor Trends:  The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (47) at the end of June is the lowest that it has been in recent history.  It is a full 66% lower than it was a year ago.  And, with a sales pace of 31 new sales for the month, the market is at an astounding low of 1.8 months of inventory.  The sales price to original listing price is a healthy 95% and prices have stabilized at about $200 per square foot.  Clearly, this market needs inventory and sellers who have been on the sidelines should be encouraged to get into the game while the market is in their favor.  It will be interesting to see how this market goes through the balance of the summer.  

Closings:  Since it has been several months since my last message, there are far too many closings than I can reasonably recap here.  Let me just congrat all of you who have worked so hard to succeed in these difficult market conditions.  I would like to recognize the following agents who have been the most productive in company dollar contribution during the first six months of this year:
    Diane Krause, Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker, Sheila Deignan, Daniel Casabonne, Cheri Stanley, Deke Dekay and Diane Harris, Ann Amtower, Linda Alioto, David Barker, Faeli Vyn, Mike Caselli, Jane and Ron Pavelka, Robyn Makaruk and Lisa Albertson.

Leading Through Turbulent Times – As part of the Leadership Council Meetings in Atlanta last month, we spent a few hours with Michael Staver in a program entitled “Leading Through Turbulent Times”. As each agent is CEO of their own business – each of us need to display these leadership traits:
Mindsets over Skillsets – here are the Mindsets We Need:
• Open – to looking at EVERY area of our businesses with FRESH EYES (yours and others)
• Creative – doing different things – not doing things differently
• Determination – relentlessly driving your business by:
    – Living and demanding consistent execution of your         core values
    – Enhancing the experience
    – Not listening to or accepting old answers to new             questions
• Focus – consistently dealing with what’s important as opposed to what gets our attention

Many of you know of my involvement with the Hyde Schools based in Bath, ME. I recently received a letter from the school indicating they are joining the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard as the only educational institutions to annually offer the “Hoffman Quadrinity Process”. Visit www.hoffmaninstitute.org for more info. The part that applies to this paragraph on leadership comes from another Hyde alumni parent Warrne Bennis, Chairman of the Kennedy School of Government Board of Advisors who says: “Here is the deal: learning to be a leader is virtually the same process as becoming an integrated and healthy person…What that means is that when we talk about ‘growing leaders’ we’re inevitably involved in personal stuff, personal transformation.”

Again from Mike Staver (www.thestavergroup.com):
• Values=Attitude. Attitude=Behavior
• Dumb is your friend – Ask questions
• It’s all about results
• Don’t panic – Do the work
• Commit to Lifelong Learning
• Live with Energy and Intensity

Top Ranking Businesses in the North Bay: Frank Howard Allen Realtors is listed as the largest Real Estate company in the recent edition of Top 500 Ranking Businesses published by the Northbay BIZ last month. The firm is identified with 637 agents and $48,000,000 in revenues for 2007. We are proud to be a part of the Frank Howard Allen family and celebrating 100 years in business next year.

Current Activity: Some interesting conclusions can be drawn from our business for the first quarter of this year. As of 3/30, we have 110 units in escrow compared to 65 on 3/30/08. Those 110 units represent $54,000,000 in sales volume compared to $52,000,000 for the 65 units last year. So, we are working nearly twice as hard for the same revenue. At the end of March, we have 228 units in available inventory compared to 220 a year ago. The average listing price at the end of March last year was $800,000 and is $759,000 this year.

In the first quarter of 2008, we closed several transactions in excess of $4,000,000 which we did not do this year. The reduced prices of the market place are clearly reflected in our dollar volume for the first quarter of 2009 being $50 million compared to $87 million in the first quarter of 2008 despite closing 141 units this year compared to 126 in the first quarter a year ago. We have not seen this level of activity since the first quarter of 2001 it is highly likely that we will be going through another series of cost reductions as we move through the balance of this year.

We are proud of the hard work that our agents are putting in to helping us to remain leaders in our industry.

Training: We are working on a follow-up training to Joyce Davison’s great presentation last month. It will involve direct mail and SOI marketing. In the meantime:
CAR Contract Training on 4/10 in Santa Rosa, 9:00 am to Noon. Check on the NorBAR website – www.norbarrealtor.com – to sign-up by 4/3.

Also, don’t forget the Spring Legal Update in Rohnert Park on Tuesday, May 5. Attendance is mandatory as part of our Risk Management program.

Sonoma Valley International Film Festival – The Sonoma Valley International Film Festival runs through the balance of this week. We are proud to be sponsors as we have been over the years and to have all the activity next to our office in the Sebastiani Theratre building. For several years we sponsored the documentary films in the festival better known as the “House of Docs”. We did a little film trailer during that time and you might enjoy viewing it – it’s a couple of minutes long. Just click on “House of Docs Video“.

Welcome to our new sales agents: Welcome to Ellen Politz who has joined our Napa office. Ellen has over fifteen years of experience in the banking industry and is an excellent short sale consultant. Call her at 265-1605 if you need assistance with a short sale. We’re also happy to welcome Helaine Forte back to our Napa office. She will be handling properties in both Napa and Sonoma. Her number in Napa is 337-3415

Closings: Congratulations to Vinni Bubak, Jannette Hall and Sally Kalaveras, all in our Napa office, and Julie King of our St. Helena office for their first closings with Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the Wine Country Group. Wishing them many more. Other closings for the period from 2/23 thru 3/27 include: Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Diane Krause (Sonoma); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Mara Kahn (Sonoma); Carol Lexa (Healdsburg); Aimee Greco (Napa); Lark Raymond (Napa); Deke Dekay and Diane Harris (Healdsburg); Robyn Makaruk (Sonoma); Svetlana Ternovskaya (Napa); William Streett (Sonoma); Alicia Robledo (Sonoma); Dee Grohmann (Healdsburg); Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Erick Rothfeld (Sonoma); Mike Caselli (Sonoma); and Pat Brown (Sonoma); The following agents had two closings over this period: Ida Clark (Napa); Linda Alioto (St. Helena); and Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker (Kenwood). Ann Amtower of our Healdsburg office and Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma Office both had three closings during this period. David Barker of our Napa Office had four closings. And Cheri Stanley of our Napa office and Ron and Jane Pavelka of our Cloverdale office each had five closings during this period. Congratulations to all!

Birthdays: Birthdays in the last month include: John Scott, Marianne Young, Diane Krause, Joan Harrington and Alicia Robledo – Best wishes to all!

The Hokey Pokey – Daniel Casabonne, our top producing agent in Dollar Volume for in 2008, was sharing his experience and expertise with our Healdsburg and Cloverdale agents this week when he reminded me of the Hokey Pokey. Several years ago, Lori Bremner, our consummate commercial property manager, gave me a t-shirt that said: “What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is really all about”. I adopted this for the year in the sense that you “put your whole self in, and you take your whole self out.” Dan remembered this little mantra and shared it with the other agents. When he is “at work”, he is all the way in – fully committed. When he takes time for himself, he is all the way out – committed to his own well being and peace of mind. He doesn’t abandon his work – but he puts it in the proper perspective. This way he keeps a healthy balance and maintains his enthusiasm. Thanks, Dan, for reminding me of that important lesson in the Hokey Pokey.

Wine Country Group Update for February, 2009: Our business remains stable in light of all that is going on around us. In January, we closed 55 sides vs. 48 sides a year ago and 39 in 1/2007 and 38 in 1/2006. As busy as we were, our dollar volume in 1/2009 was $20,000,000 compared to $46,000,000 in 2008. So the median price of our transactions was down for that month. The same fact is reflected in our backlog of pending transactions which (as of 2/23) stands at 93 sales compared to 64 a year ago and reflects $42,000,000 in volume compared to $50,000,000 a year ago. Same with listing inventory which is down to 174 units compared to 187 a year ago and reflects a median price of $758,000 compared to $834,000 a year ago. Certainly, our activity in the REO market is largely responsible for this trend, not only in our firm, but industry wide. We do see market rate and high end listings and sales coming on line as the spring market unfolds.

We remain number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. In the Sonoma Valley, we are selling twice as many units as our nearest competitor and we expect to continue that trend. Our Napa, Kenwood and Sonoma offices all had year over year gains in units closed for the month of January, 2009.

Best Real Estate Company: We are proud to be named the “Best Real Estate Company” in Sonoma in KVON’s 17th annual “Best of…” awards. Congratulations to all of our agents and staff for this recognition. Visit http://www.kvon.com/ to see the results of the survey.

Training: Congratulations to Joyce Davidson of our Sonoma office for planning and implementing two two hour training sessions in the past two weeks. The response to Joyce’s trainings has been very positive and we look forward to sponsoring Joyce in doing more training sessions throughout the year. This is consistent with our goal of generating more internal training opportunities for our Wine Country Group agents this year. Thanks, also, to Cheri Stanley and Daniel Casaboone who contributed their knowledge and skills to the training.

**Property Websites – Important Policy Change**: To my knowledge, we are the only real estate firm in Northern California offering free property websites to our agents for all of our listings. We appreciate that our agents have wholly adopted this marketing approach and to date we have developed over 717 of these interactive websites. Many thanks to Ally, Lourdes and Susie. Because of the cost to us to reserve websites we are implementing the following

POLICY CHANGE:
Effective 3/1/09, if:
1. A property website address is reserved, but unused for over thirty (30) days; or
2. More than one property website address is reserved for one property; or
3. A property website is reserved and it is a mistake; or
4. A property website is extended for over one year;
Then, the agent will be charged $25.00 for each occurrence.

Please note, for all other uses of the property website program, there will be no charge to our agents and it will remain a unique marketing tool that the company provides for each of our listings.

Welcome to our new sales agents: Susan Montgomery joins our Healdsburg office as part of the team handling the 40 unit Foss Creek Condominium project. David Katz, former Executive Director of California Trouts Unlimited and former ED of the Sonoma Land Trust joins our Sonoma office. David has a wealth of experience in land conservation, conservation easements, agricultural development and ag preserves, etc. If you have any sensitive properties that have these “issues”, David is a great resource for us. Also welcome to Zoe Stanowski in our Sonoma office.

Frame of Mind Coaching: I enjoy reading articles by Kim Ades who has a business called Frame of Mind Coaching. As you can guess from the title, she emphasizes the importance of “attitude” in all that we do – particularly in sales. Much of her training is done through Webinars and she has an interesting one coming up this Thursday, 2/26. It’s called “Let’s Get Thin”, and the speaker, Rob Sugar (ironically) is an “Emotional Eating” coach. His premise is that diets do not work, overeating is an emotional response to other stresses. Sounds interesting, at least thought provoking. For more, visit: this LINK.

Green Designation: If you are interested in receiving your “Green Designation” as a Realtor, several local classes are being offered. Visit http://www.car.org/education/designations/greendesignation/ for more information.

Closings: Closings for the period from 1/26 thru 2/20 include: Isaac Raboy (Sonoma); Ann Foley (Sonoma); Constance Sharpe (Glen Ellen); Tish Thames (Sonoma); Aimee Greco (Napa); Art Bowen (Napa); Penelope La Montagne (Healdsburg); Susan Irvine (Sonoma); Frank Trozzo (Napa); Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen); Christina Bourassa (Sonoma); Faeli Vyn (Napa); Curtis Kind (Cloverdale); Richard Hurst (Cloverdale); Monica Hernandez (Healdsburg); Jana Jones (Healdsburg); Barbara Sommerville (Sonoma); Corrie Sterbentz (Sonoma); Pat Brown (Sonoma); The following agents had two closings over this period: Jessica Detwiller (Napa); Herb Heil (Sonoma); Sheila Deignan (Sonoma); Diane Litchfield (Sonoma); and Jane and Ron Pavelka (Cloverdale). Cheri Stanley of our Napa office and Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma Office had four closings each during this period. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker of our Kenwood office closed five transactions during this time, and David Barker of our Napa Office topped the bunch by having seven closings during this period. Congratulations to all!

Congratulations to Roger Olson of our Healdsburg office for being awarded the 2008 Sonoma County Spirit Award by the Windsor Chamber of Commerce.

Birthdays: Birthdays for the month of January include: Robyn Makurak, Sharon Semenero, Linda Alioto, Danuta Mykytiuk, Mari Johnson, Diane Harris, Barbara Sommerville, Isaac Raboy, Katie Bailie and Kendra Martin. For February, birthdays include Randy Haak, Charlotte Schanzer, Scott Inglis, and Patti Keiser. Special wishes to Earl Shuttleworth who celebrates one of those “BIG” birthdays this week – and best wishes to all!

A whole bunch has been happening leading up to and following our new President’s inauguration on January 20. I have some thoughts in my “welcoming address” to our Wine Country Group Kick-off which we held on Friday, January 23, but first, here is a copy of some of the highlights of the Kick-off:

Sonoma, California (January 26, 2008)—Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group™, had their companywide kick-off on Friday, January 23rd, with over one hundred agents and staff in attendance at the Quail Lodge at the Oakmont Country Club. Top producers for the seven office firm were announced and recognized.

Gerrett Snedaker, CEO/Broker of Frank Howard Allen Realtors, The Wine Country Group™, made the announcement of the firm’s overall top agents with the following comments: “For our entire company there are three stellar performances that we want to recognize today. One of our agents produced more than $39,000,000 in Dollar Volume. He doubled the dollar volume and unit count of his nearest competitor in his market. Congratulations to Daniel Casabonne of our Sonoma Office for being Top Producer in Dollar Volume. Another agent closed 76 and one half units in 2008. That’s almost one and one half closings per week. This agent became the highest producing agent in both units and dollar volume for all agents based in Napa County. Congratulations to Cheri Stanley of our Napa Office for being our Top Producer in Units Sold. Finally, one agent produced 72 listings for the year. More remarkably, he did this in only eight months as he joined the Wine Country Group in April of 2008. Congratulations to David Barker of our Napa Office for being Top Producer in Listings”.

Earl Shuttleworth, Partner in the Wine Country Group, and Lori Sargiotto, Chief Financial Officer, alternately introduced Top Producers in each of the firm’s offices including Casabonne in the Sonoma Valley and Stanley and Barker in Napa. Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker were also acknowledged as Top Listing Agents for the Sonoma Valley. Dee Grohmann (Top Dollar Volume) and Penelope La Montagne (Top Unit Sales and Listings) were recognized for the Healdsburg office; Ron and Jane Pavelka were recognized as Top Producers in the Cloverdale Office; and, Steve and Marla Ericson (Top Dollar Volume) and Linda Alioto (Top Unit Sales and Listings) were recognized for the St. Helena office.

Shuttleworh also announced the company’s Top Performers. These agents, though not always the Top Producers in their respective offices, made significant advances in their personal production on a year over year basis. They reached difficult standards set by the company at the beginning of 2008. Included in this “Top Performers” group were Lisa Albertson (Sonoma and Healdsburg), Ann Amtower (Healdsburg), David Barker, Daniel Casabonne, Sheila Deignan (Sonoma), Doug Del Fava and Susan Parker, Dee Grohmann, Patty Keiser (Glen Ellen), Diane Krause (Sonoma), Jane and Ron Pavelka, Isaac Raboy (Sonoma), Nicki Rector (Healdsburg), Charlee Schanzer (Healdsburg), Cheri Stanley, Bill Streett (Sonoma) and Frank Trozzo (Napa).
Gina Clyde of the Sonoma office was recognized as the company’s “Rookie of the Year”, Danuta Mykyliuk, the Office Administrator for the Healdsburg Office, was named “Support Staff Employee of the Year”, and the Napa Office was named “Office of the Year”. The Napa Office increased its production 5 fold in 2008, going from 34 closings to 166 and adding ten new agents over the course of the year.

Other events at the Wine Country Group’s Kick-off included the introduction of new on-line marketing materials by the company’s Marketing Director, Susie Savino, and a Keynote Address by Keith Woods, Chief Executive Officer of the North Coast Builders Exchange.

My welcoming remarks were as follows:

What an exciting week. The energy surrounding our new President’s inauguration was palpable even three thousand miles away. Listening to radio reports of those who were there confirm that it was a once in a lifetime moment. Of course, this larger scale excitement has made it difficult for me to come up with something meaningful to say this morning, but I will do my best.

On Tuesday, President Obama said the following: “Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends — hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism — these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history”. I am proud that many of these values are also in our company statement of “Who We Are”: Courage, Curiosity, Honesty, Trust, Integrity, High Expecations and Respect. I agree that these principles are the values upon which our success depends.

On your program and around the room are posters of a Rocky Mountain Goat in mid-air, leaping across a mountain ravine. Looking at these photos, the value of courage comes to mind. I respect the courage that each of you exhibit in taking on new clients, on counseling them through difficult situations fraught with strong emotions. As I said in my printed remarks, I observe you “leaping empty chasms all the time…” – moving forward.

In Elizabeth Alexander’s Inaugural Poem, “Praise Song for the Day”, she repeats this notion of “leaping forward” – a combination of courage and curiosity:
“We cross dirt roads and highways that mark the will of someone and then others who said, ‘I need to see what’s on the other side; I know that there’s something better down the road'”.
I see that you, in your professional sales careers, look to the next opportunity, the new client relationship, the something better on the other side of your difficult efforts. I admire this in you.

Music is always inspiring to me. In putting together the group of songs that have been playing while we gathered this morning – many thoughts and emotions come to me, and I relate many of the songs to the values with which we work and the today’s kick-off theme. I will weave some of these songs and lyrics into my coming remarks:
Many of you will receive well deserved awards and recognition for your hard work and your business success in 2008. Some of you will receive multiple awards because you have placed yourself as leaders among your peers. For those who receive awards today and those who set the goal of receiving an award at our kick-off next year – here are some song’s to keep in mind:
“Keep On Pushin'” – you can’t stop now
Similar to Earl’s favorite theme from “Chariots of Fire” – race farther, harder and faster than the rest
“It’s a Brand New Day” – thinking in a brand new way. Paraphrasing a famous saying, if we continue to do the same thing over and over again, we can expect the same results. To those of you who are recognized today – keep doing what you are doing. For those desiring to get there – it’s a brand new day and time to think in new ways.
“Accentuate the Positive” – Dr. John’s prescription for the “attitude for doing right”.
There are songs of dreamers and travelers, persistence and joy, and a couple of Yes We Can songs – One is the “Obama Anthem” by Talat; “You Can Get it if You Really Want” by Jimmy Cliff, and the original: “Yes We Can Can” by the Pointer Sisters. Did some of you see the movie “Young At Heart”? It’s a great film about a man who forms a touring singing group called “Young at Heart”. The great and challenging part is that all of the singers are 70 year’s old or older – some are into their 90’s. In one part of the film he is teaching them new songs including “Yes We Can Can” and they get all tongue tied over the repeated Yes We Can’s – 59 of them in the song. In any case, they finally make it through and perform the song on their tour to great ovations. They take that leap over the empty chasm into the unknown, and they are rewarded.

If you’d like a CD of these songs to listen to while driving from here to there, or at home, let me know, I’ll be happy to burn you one.

I believe that you all know that 2008 has been full of some extraordinary events in our real estate brokerage. In my forty plus years in the business, I heard new and startling stories about your transactions, and non-transactions this year. The fact that new things are always happening in our business is one of the most enjoyable parts of it for me. With all the interesting stories, my favorite is this: Jane and Ron Pavelka were representing a first time home buyer, buying a REO property at the end of the year. As with all REO transactions, the timing of the timelines and closings were uncertain. They actually closed on December 24th. When Jane met them at the home that evening, Christmas Eve, to turn over the keys, they gave her a small envelope. In it was their Christmas card. It was a picture of them in front of the house – taken some time before – but they had not wanted to share it with anyone until the home was actually theirs and their dream of owning a home came true. With tears and hugs, Jane accepted their holiday offering and ushered them into their new home and their new life.

We are confident that 2009 holds great opportunities for all of us and, with you, we will keep “Leaping Towards Success”.

Here is the info on our company production and our market conditions as of 12/31/08:

For the year ending December, 2008, The Wine Country Groups closings were ahead of the rate for 2007 and 2006. We closed 628 units compared to 534 a year ago. Because of falling sales prices across all of our markets, our median price for closings for the year dropped to $568,000 compared to 740,000 in 2007. Thus, our gross sales volume was $355 million compared to $386 million last year. Our commission rate increased over the year and our commission split as a company improved a bit, so things balanced out and we were able to achieve a modest profit for the year – our first in three years.

We had a record year in listings with 677 compared to 594 a year ago. Our available inventory at year end numbers 200 listings, exactly the same as at this time a year ago. Our average listing value is $705,000 which is down from $880,000 a year ago, but higher than the $648,000 that we had at the end of November, 2008. As we begin 2009, we have 77 open escrows vs. 74 a year ago. Predictably, the outstanding dollar volume is less than a year ago, $45,000,000 compared to $62,000,000. I know that we have at least $30,000,000 in high end listings that will be coming on the market in the weeks following the Super Bowl – the traditional end of the holiday season.

We remain solidly number one in market share in our Sonoma Valley, Healdsburg and Cloverdale markets. Our Napa office finished the year 388% ahead of 2007. For firms based in Napa County, we are now the third largest in unit production over the past twelve months. Interestingly, one competitor in the Sonoma Valley is claiming #1 market share. The fine print in their graphic specifies that the data is “for sales in excess of $1,000,000 in value”. In reality, we sold nearly twice as many homes as they did in 2008 (193 to 100) and we exceeded their overall dollar volume as well – so be careful with those statistics!

December, 2008 TrendGraphix Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Napa County (727) was 11% lower than a month ago and it was also 11% below the inventory (818) at this time last year. New sales (101) and closed escrows (103) were well ahead of the pace of a year ago (42 and 42 respectively). That’s an increase of 140% in units sold for the month. The sale of bank owned properties (REOs) continues to strongly influence the current market. The median price of homes closed in December, 2008 was $392,000 compared to $377,000 last month and $567,000 in December of 2007. A 45% decline in median price over the last year. The average price per square foot of homes sold, however, seems pretty stabilized in the low $300s per square foot.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: New sales (13) in the St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) were up from a month ago when there were 6 new sales. In December, 2008, there were 16 closings compared with 4 both a month ago and in December, 2007. This is a welcome change as the Up Valley market has been really slow over most of the year. Inventory remains relatively high at 158 units compared to 139 a year ago.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,834) in Sonoma County at the end of December was 24% lower than a year ago. New sales (404) in December, ’08 were consistent with last month and were 92% ahead of the pace in December, ’07 (210). Distressed sales, either bank owned, in foreclosure, or “short sales” (where the lender accepts less than the full payoff of their loan) remain a major component of the market. The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $310,000 which was ahead of last month’s median ($306,000) but was 39% lower than the median price ($432,000) of closed sales in December, 2007. The average price per square foot of homes sold, however, seems pretty stabilized in the $230 to $240 per square foot range.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (169) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of December, ’08 was 24% below that for the period of December, 2007 (223). There were 25 new sales for the month (compared to 21 a month ago and 16 in December, ’07). The median price of homes closed in December in the Sonoma Valley was $435,000 which was ahead of last month’s median ($340,000) but was 56% lower than the median price ($678,000) of closed sales in December, 2007. The average price per square foot of homes sold, however, seems pretty stabilized in the $305 to $320 per square foot range.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (85) in Healdsburg at the end of December was slightly less than that of November (92) and was 13% below the 98 homes available in December, ’07. New sales (11) and closed escrows (13) compared to 6 and 8, respectively, in December, 2007, so the market is picking up in Healdsburg. The available inventory compared to closed homes in the month dropped to a 6.5 month supply, down from a 16.3 month supply a year ago and the lowest in the last fifteen months.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Cloverdale (75) in December, 2008 dropped from 81 units a month ago, and is slightly below the 82 units available at this time in December, 2007. New sales and closings have dropped off from the pace of the early fall at 9 to 8 respectively, but this is still an improvement from the 8 closings and 3 sales that occurred in December, 2007. The median price of homes closed in December in Cloverdale was $295,000 which was ahead of last month’s median ($290,000) but was 29% lower than the median price ($382,000) of closed sales in December, 2007. The average price per square foot of homes sold, however, seems pretty stabilized in the $175 to $200 per square foot range.

Please contact me, or any of our agents, for additional information and copies of the complete TrendGraphix reports – a Frank Howard Allen Realtors exclusive.

Branding with Trulia.com: If you look go to Trulia.com, you will see that we have now branded our listings and have “featured listings” that rise above the other listings on Trulia’s page. From Trulia’s home page enter a town/city in which we have an office (i.e. Sonoma, Healdsburg…) and you will see that some of our listings show up as “featured properties” and all of our listings are branded with our logo. We have seen a real jump in our website traffic since entering a marketing agreement with Trulia and we will monitor it over the next six months to see if it is worth our investment.

“They Walk Among Us”:  A friend sent along a list of funny bits on the theme that there are actually people out there like this!  One related to a real estate agent and went like this: 

While looking at a house, my brother asked the estate agent which direction was north because, he explained, he didn’t want the sun waking him up every morning. She asked, ‘Does the sun rise in the north?’ When my brother explained that the sun rises in the east, and has for sometime, she shook her head and said, ‘Oh, I don’t keep up with that  stuff’

Well, I can hope that this particular agent does “not walk among us” in the Wine Country Group.

Closings and Birthdays:  I am so far behind on this that I am going to start fresh in the next update to the blog.  I do want to point out a few agents who had their first closings with Frank Howard Allen Realtors, the Wine Country Group over the past six weeks, or so.  They include:  Lark Raymond, Ida Clark, Art Bowen and Jannette Hall, all in our Napa office, and Curtis Kind in our Cloverdale office.  Congratulations to all who had closings and/or birthdays over the past weeks since my last blog entry.