Welcome to 2013
My personal motto for 2013 is an adaptation of a quote from William Ellery Channing, the leading Unitarian preacher in the early 19th century. My adaptation goes like this:
I will seek to be worthy more than respectable. I will value happiness and joy. I will enjoy abundance. I will seek elegance rather than luxury, refinement rather than fashion. I will study hard, think quietly, talk gently, and act frankly. I will listen to stars and birds, babes and sages, with an open heart. I will bear all things cheerfully, do all things bravely, await occasions and never hurry.
I hope that your 2013 is a wonderful year!
Wine Country Real Estate Trends in December 2012 and Annual Results
Wine Country Group Results for December 2012
The Wine Country Group had a record 82 closings this December compared to 65 in December 2011. Our dollar volume was also a record $47 million compared to $25 million last year. Our Sebastopol office led with 25 closings in December while the Sonoma office had 18 and the Santa Rosa office had 16. The Sebastopol office also led in dollar volume with $13.6 million in closings. Though the Healdsburg office had only 12 closings for the month, they had $12 million dollars in sales volume (an average of $1 million dollars per transaction) while the Sonoma office had $9.7 million in closings. Our average closing sales price was $576,000 comparing to $386,000 a year ago. Our escrow openings totaled 67 units compared to 63 in December 2011. We had 15 new listings compared to 17 a year ago.
The Wine Country Group currently has 79 pending sales with a value of $36 million dollars. We have 111 active listings with a value of $116 million dollars. Last year at this time we had 244 listings, so we are off 81%. Correspondingly, our average listing price is $1,044,000 – up 28% from an average of $815,000 a year ago.
The Wine Country Group currently enjoys number one market share (in either (or both) units and dollar volume) in our Cloverdale, Healdsburg, and Sebastopol markets.
2012 Annual Results
For the first time since our formation in 1998, the Wine Country Group closed over 1,000 units in 2012. We closed over $500,000,000 in dollar volume for only the second time – the last being 2005. We closed 1052 units compared to 894 a year ago (an increase of 12%) and we had $507 million dollars in closings compared to $389 million a year ago (an increase of 30%).
Our average sales price for the year was $482,348 – an 11% increase from a year ago. Over the last fourteen years, prices in Wine Country appreciated 67% from 1998 to 2001. They dipped 2% in 2002 as the market adjusted to 9/11. They then appreciated 60% from 2002 to 2006. The overall appreciation between 1998 and 2006 was 160% or 20% per year on average. Since 2006, prices declined 40% through 2009, or down 13% per year on average. In 2010, our average selling price increased 12% and in 2011, it decreased by 6%. In 2012, it increased 11%. So, prices today are 76% higher than they were in 1998, or an average annual appreciation rate over the past 14 years of 5.4%. The average sales price for our transactions in 2012 was $482,000 which is below the level that we had from 2003 to 2008, but above the level that we had in 2002 – $465,000.
Congratulations to our agents, our staff and managers on a terrific 2012!
Wine Country Real Estate Market Trends
Sonoma County: Sonoma County has the lowest inventory of available homes (605) for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. Even in the height of the boom market in 2004-05, we had more inventory than we do now. The inventory is about half of the amount it was in December 2011 (1,193). For the past decade, our inventory peaked at 3,552 units in September 2007. We currently have less than 20% of that amount. The available inventory dropped from 703 units last month – a 14% drop in just 30 days. We’ll need to see a rebound in inventory in the first quarter of this year to have any semblance of a balanced market.
New sales (375) were 20% lower than last year (469) and 17% below that of last month (453). This is the lowest pace of sales for any month going back to December 2010. There is a just a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace – a stressed market. New listings for the month (239) were 35% lower than the pace in December 2011 (370). The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County ($359,000) was 22% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($295,000).
Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up 14% of the inventory and 39% of the new sales. One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 32% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 65% of all new sales. There is 0.6 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace. The median price of 154 distressed properties that sold in the month of December ($274,000) was 17% higher than December a year ago ($235,000).
Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (28) at the end of December 2012 was 22% below that of a year ago (36) and was 20% below the inventory last month (35). Sales for the month of December (21) were 91% ahead of the sales a year ago (11) and 40% ahead of the sales reported last month (15). There is a 1.3 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales. Just 11% of the inventory is distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), 43% of the new sales and 36% of the closings for the month are distressed properties.
Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (56) in Healdsburg at the end of December was down 21% from that of last year (71) and it was down 15% from that of last month (66). This is the lowest inventory in Healdsburg since February 2005 when there were just 57 units available. New sales (16) were up slightly from the 14 new sales in December 2011 and were 20% below the 20 sales last month. The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 3.5 months. Only 9% of the inventory in Healdsburg consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), but 19% of the new sales were distressed properties and 19% of the closings were distressed properties. There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the inventory and sales pace of distressed properties.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (49) in Petaluma at the end of December was a whopping 65% lower than a year ago (140) and it was 23% lower than the supply last month (64). Inventory is about a third of what it was this time last year. As with the County as a whole, this is the lowest level of inventory in Petaluma since the year 2000. New sales in December (49) were 23% below the pace in December 2011 (64) and they were 18% lower than the pace of last month (60). There is only a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 14% of the available inventory, 27% of new sales and 45% of closings for the month. This compares to 34% of inventory, 56% of new sales and 46% of closings in December 2011. Clearly, the Petaluma market is missing the “energy” of the distressed properties in its inventory.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (158) in Santa Rosa at the end of December was 63% lower than a year ago (422). It was down 19% from the Inventory last month (194). This is the lowest level of inventory in Santa Rosa since the beginning of the millennium. The level of new listings for the month (88) was also the lowest since before January 2000. There were 88 new listings and 151 new sales for the month – you can see where that trend will lead. New sales in December (151) were 30% below the pace in December 2011 (216) and they were 26% behind the pace of last month (204). There is only a one months supply of available homes paced on the current sales pace. The median price of homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was $325,000 compared to $265,000 a year ago – an 22% increase. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 15% of the available inventory (continues decreasing trend), 40% of new sales and 36% of closings for the month. This compares to 42% of inventory, 65% of new sales and 56% of closings a year ago. There is less than one half months supply of distressed properties available. Again, this market is missing the “energy” of the distressed properties.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (47) in Sebastopol at the end of December was 29% lower than that of December 2011 (66) and it was 13% lower than that of last month (54). As with the County as a whole, this is the lowest inventory recorded for Sebastopol since 2000. There were 18 new sales for the month of December compared to 14 in November 2011 and 23 last month. There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There is only one distressed property (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) available in Sebastopol. This market is essentially out of distressed properties at the current time. If they come on the market, they sell right away.
Sonoma Valley: There were 77 available homes in inventory at the end of December in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood). This is the lowest level of inventory for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. It is 50% lower than the inventory a year ago (153) and 23% below the inventory last month (100). There were 36 new sales for the month. This is 33% higher than the sales in December 2011 (27) but 8% behind the pace last month (39). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent just 6% of the inventory (5 units), 39% of the new sales for the month and 24% of the closings for the month. This compares to 20%, 67% and 50% a year ago. Distressed sales are having about half of the impact that they had a year ago.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (28) in Windsor at the end of December was 48% lower than a year ago (54). It was 22% ahead of the supply last month (23). New sales in November (28) were 20% lower than the pace in December 2011(35) and they were 47% ahead of the pace of last month (19). There is only a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 46% of the available inventory, 50% of new sales and 45% of closings for the month. Distressed properties continue to have a larger affect on the market in Windsor than in other parts of the County, however it is decreasing there as well.
Napa County: Napa County has the lowest inventory of available homes (296) for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. Even in the height of the boom market in 2004-05, we had more inventory than we do now. The inventory is 41% lower than it was in December 2011 (504) and 14% lower than last month (344). New sales (113) were 2% above that of last year (112) and were equal to the pace of last month (113). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace. New listings for the month (79) were 30% lower than the pace in December 2011 (113). The median price of homes closed in December in Napa County ($346,000) was 4% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($332,000).
Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up only 8% of the inventory but 32% of the new sales and 37% of the closings. One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 22% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 61% of all new sales. There is 0.7 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace. The median price of 41 distressed properties that sold in the month of December ($285,000) was 5% higher than December a year ago ($272,000).
Napa: There were 148 available homes in inventory at the end of December in the City of Napa. This is the lowest level of inventory for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. It is 47% lower than the inventory a year ago (277) and 16% below the inventory last month (176). There were 74 new sales for the month. This is 31% equal to the sales in December 2011 and 6% ahead of the pace last month (70). There is a two months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent 5% of the inventory (just 8 units), 28% of the new sales for the month and 35% of the closings for the month. This compares to 21%, 58% and 44% a year ago. Distressed sales are having about half of the impact that they had a year ago.
Up Valley: There were 120 available homes in inventory at the end of December in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville). This is 26% lower than the inventory a year ago (162) and 15% lower than the inventory last month (141). There were 12 new sales for the month. This is 20% higher than the sales in December 2011 (10) but 45% below the pace last month (22). Though the inventory is relatively low to prior months, there remains a 10 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent 6% of the inventory (7 units), and 17% of the new sales for the month. There is less activity in the distressed market than a year ago. A healthy Up Valley market is generally a good sign for Wine Country real estate.
Closings: The following agents enjoyed closings for the period from December 1 to December 31, 2012:
In our Cloverdale office, Ron and Jane Pavelka had two closings.
In our Healdsburg office: Bernie Curley, Linda Farwell, Hank Lane and Susan Montgomery each had two closings; Nicki Rector, Beth Bruno, Ken Scharer, Rico Ruthnick, Diane Harris and Betty Hagedon each had a closing.
In our Napa office: Charlie Laughlin and Tressa Anderson each had two closings; Lark Raymond, Shawn Daee and Cynthia Parker each had a closing.
In our Petaluma office: Ryan Styles enjoyed a closing.
In our Santa Rosa offices: Larry Tristano and Charles Himes had four closing; Dave Poulsen and Donald Hamilton each had three closings and Carlos Rivas of Mason McDuffie Commercial Real Estate closed three leases; and Gus Kyriakos, Mark Payne, Christen Hamilton, Jill Rake, Conrad Worthy and Jim Famini each had a closing.
In our Sebastopol office: Gina Epperson and the team of Doug Schaeffer and Cary Fargo enjoyed three closings each; Will Kent, Cheryl Ellis, Gene Bonino and Will Brown, Pam Buda and Rikki Barron enjoyed two closings each; and Michael and Pauline Pellini, Lisa Dawson, Pat Paulsen, Laurie Parris, Sandy Mays, Rita DeSouza, Allison Pharis, Lori Allen and Bette Merrit, each had a closing.
In our Sonoma office: Tish Thames enjoyed four closings; Diane Litchfield, Erin George and Barbara Sommerville had two closings each; and Patty Keiser, Herb Heil, Mari Johnson, Carl MacPetrie, Isaac Raboy, Pam Giusto, Sheila Deignan, Diane Krause and Mara Kahn each had a closing.
And, in our St. Helena office: Linda Alioto and Gina Papale White each had two closings and Jeff Veness had a closing for this period.
Congratulations to all!