Welcome to 2014

I’m sticking to my personal motto from 2013 for the coming year – I like it:

I will seek to be worthy more than respectable.  I will value happiness and joy.  I will enjoy abundance.  I will seek refinement rather than fashion.  I will study hard, think quietly, talk gently, and act frankly.  I will listen to stars and birds, babes and sages, with an open heart.  I will bear all things cheerfully, do all things bravely, await occasions and never hurry.

I’m adding a Herman Hesse quote:  “Happiness is a how, not a what; a talent, not an object”. I’m going to work to improve my happiness talent.

Wishing you a great 2014!

Wine Country Real Estate Trends in December 2013 and Annual Results

Wine Country Group Results for December 2013

The end of the year kind of fizzled out across all of our Wine Country markets.  The Wine Country Group had just 51 closings this December compared to 82 in December 2012.  Our average number of sales in December over the past 16 years is 53 – so, perhaps we shouldn’t feel so bad.  Our dollar volume was $25 million compared to $47 million last year.  Our Santa Rosa office led with 13 closings in December while the Sonoma office had 10 and the Napa office had 8.  The Napa office led in dollar volume with $5.5 million in closings, the Sonoma office had $4.3 million and the Santa Rosa office had $4.1million in closings.  Our average closing sales price was $487,213 comparing to $576,251 a year ago.  Our escrow openings totaled 53 units compared to 67 in December 2012.  We had 11 new listings compared to 15 a year ago.

The Wine Country Group currently has 60 pending sales with a value of $55 million dollars.  We have 98 active listings with a value of $108 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,107,000 – up 8% from an average of $1,044,000 a year ago.

2013 Annual Results

The Wine Country Group closed nearly $500,000,000 in dollar volume in 2013.  We closed 860 units compared to 1,052 a year ago and we had $471 million dollars in closings compared to $507 million a year ago.

Our average sales price for the year was $547,605 – a 14% increase from a year ago.  One of our clients recently asked the following intriguing question:  Do we have access to data that shows regional trends (Wine Country) in residential sales prices over the past sixteen years?  Just so happens that we began recording data for our Wine Country offices in 1998.  Based on our sample size (from 300 to 1,052 units per year) it should be representative of the regional trends.  I find the results quite interesting.

Prices appreciated 67% from 1998 to 2001.  They dipped 2% in 2002 as the market adjusted to 9/11.  They then appreciated 60% from 2002 to 2006.  The overall appreciation between 1998 and 2006 was 160% or 20% per year on average.  Since 2006, prices declined 40% through 2009, or down 13% per year on average.  In 2010, our average selling price increased 12% and in 2011, it decreased by 6%.   In 2012, it increased 11% and in 2013, it increased by 14%.  So, prices today are 101% higher than they were in 1998, or an average annual appreciation rate over the past 16 years of 6.3%.  The average sales price for our transactions in 2013 was $548,000 which is below the level that we had from 2004 to 2008, but above the level that we had in 2003 – $539,000.

The chart below shows the results through the years:

Year Average Price % Change
1998 $273,000
1999 376,000 37.7%
2000 419,000 11.4%
2001 464,000 10.7%
2002 464,000 0.0%
2003 539,000 16.2%
2004 625,000 16.0%
2005 715,000 14.4%
2006 749,000 4.8%
2007 740,000 -1.2%
2008 568,000 -23.2%
2009 412,000 -27.5%
2010 460,000 11.7%
2011 435,000 -5.4%
2012 482,000 10.8%
2013 548,000 13.7%

2013 Results for Sonoma County, Napa County and Wine Country: According to figures from BAREIS MLS system, for the year, Sonoma County had 5,599 residential properties sold.  This compares to 6,125 a year ago – a decrease of 8.6%.  The dollar volume for 2013 was $2.8 billion, 11.7% higher than the sales volume of $2.5 billion in 2012.  The average price increased 22% from $416,000 in 2012 to $508,000 in 2013.

For Napa County, there were 1,633 closed residential properties in 2013 compared to 1,642 in 2012.  This is a decrease of less than 1%.  The sales dollar volume increased 14% from $892 million to $1.2 billion.  The average price increased 15% from $543,000 in 2012 to $623,000 in 2013.

Combining the two for a Wine Country total, the number of units sold decreased by 7% from 7,767 to 7,232.  The total sales volume increased by 14.7% from $3.44 billion to $3.86 billion and the average selling price increased 20.5% from $443,000 to $534,000.

For the Month of December:

Sonoma County: Sonoma County has the lowest inventory of available homes (575) for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. Even in the height of the boom market in 2004-05, we had more inventory than we do now.  The inventory is 5% lower than it was in December 2012 (605).  For the past decade, our inventory peaked at 3,552 units in September 2007.  We currently have less than 20% of that amount.  The available inventory dropped from 702 units last month – a 18% drop – but this mirrors the trend of most years when inventory drops for the holidays.

New sales (297) were 22% lower than last year (380) and 34% below that of last month (450).  This is the lowest pace of sales for any month going back to January 2008.  There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace – an indication of a “Seller’s market”.  New listings for the month (194) were 28% lower than the pace in December 2012 (269).  The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County ($425,000) was 20% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($355,000) but it has been generally stable since June of this year.

Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up 8.5% of the inventory and 16% of the new sales.  One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 14% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 37% of all new sales.  There is 0.9 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace.  The median price of 56 distressed properties that sold in the month of December ($321,000) was 19% higher than December a year ago ($270,000).

Sonoma County Luxury Homes: Sales of luxury homes (sales price in excess of $900,000) in the Sonoma County have enjoyed a strong growth in activity in the last twelve months.  There has been a 31% increase in the number of luxury homes closed (428) from 1/1/13 to 12/31/13 compared to 327 from 1/1/12 to 12/31/12.  There were 28 new luxury home sales in December 2013 compared to 14 in December 2012.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (17) at the end of December 2013 was 39% below that of a year ago (28) and was 10.5% below the inventory last month (19).  Sales for the month of December (8) were 60% below the sales a year ago (20) and 47% below the sales recorded last month (15).  There is a 2.1 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales.  There are just 2 units of distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) in the inventory at present.

Coastal Sonoma: Things continued to be busy in the Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) market.  Sales for the month of December were 7 homes compared to 2 a year ago and 4 last month.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (23) at the end of December 2013 was 18% lower than that of a year ago (28) and was 26% lower than last month (31).  There is a 3.3 months supply of available inventory in the Coastal Sonoma market based on the current pace of new sales.  The days on market (130) remains relatively high when compared to the rest of the County (77).

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (44) in Healdsburg at the end of December was down 21% from that of last year (56) and it was down 20% from that of last month (55).  This is the lowest inventory in Healdsburg in the past 13 years.  New sales (12) were slightly below the 15 new sales in December 2012 and were slightly ahead of the 9 sales last month.  The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 3.7 months.   There is only one “distressed property” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), currently available in Healdsburg.

Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (43) in Petaluma at the end of December was 12% lower than a year ago (49) and it was 48% lower than the supply last month (54).  As with the County as a whole, this is the lowest level of inventory in Petaluma since the year 2000.  New sales in December (28) were 48% below the pace in December 2012 (54) and they were 49% lower than the pace of last month (55).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 14% of the available inventory, 3% of new sales and 14% of closings for the month.

Santa Rosa: Unlike the most of the rest of the County, the inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (184) in Santa Rosa at the end of December was 16.5% higher than a year ago (158).   It was down 14% from the Inventory last month (223).  The level of new listings for the month (83) was the lowest since before January 2000.  There were 83 new listings and 130 new sales for the month – you can see where that trend will lead.  New sales in December (130) were 14% below the pace in December 2012 (152) and they were 35% behind the pace of last month (201).  There is only a 1.4 months supply of available homes based on the current sales pace.  The median price of homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was $390,000 compared to $325,000 a year ago – an 20% increase, but like the County, it has been generally stable since June of this year.  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 11% of the available inventory (continues decreasing trend), 17% of new sales and 19% of closings for the month. This compares to 15% of inventory, 41% of new sales and 37% of closings a year ago.  There is a 0.9 months supply of distressed properties available.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (35) in Sebastopol at the end of December was 25.5% lower than that of December 2012 (47) and it was 39% lower than that of last month (54).  As with the County as a whole, this is the lowest inventory recorded for Sebastopol since 2000.  There were just 11 new sales for the month of December compared to 18 in December 2012 and 23 for last month.  This is the lowest number of sales in Sebastopol for any month since December of 2008.  There is a 3.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  There are only three distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) available in Sebastopol.  This market is essentially out of distressed properties at the current time.  If they come on the market, they sell right away.

Sonoma Valley: There were just 55 available homes in inventory at the end of December in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood).  This is the lowest level of inventory for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000.  It is 29% lower than the inventory a year ago (77) and 36% below the inventory last month (86). There were 34 new sales for the month.  This is slightly below the sales in December 2012 (37) and 17% behind the pace last month (41).  There is just one distressed property (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) in the inventory in Sonoma, so that market has essentially dried up.

Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (30) in Windsor at the end of December was 7% higher than a year ago (28).  It was 30% below the supply last month (37).  New sales in December (21) were 30% lower than the pace in December 2012 (30) and they were 45% below the pace of last month (38).  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 13% of the inventory, 14% of the new sales and 5% of the closings for the month.  Last year, distressed sales represented 46% of the available inventory, 50% of new sales and 45% of closings for the month.

Napa County: Napa County has the lowest inventory of available homes (275) for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. This level of inventory was also achieved in February of this year.  The inventory is 7% lower than it was in December 2012 (296) and 29% lower than last month (320).  New sales (83) were 29% lower than last year (117) and were 36% lower than last month (129).  There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace.  New listings for the month (64) were 23% lower than the pace in December 2012 (83).  The median price of homes closed in December in Napa County ($454,000) was 33% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($341,000) but has been generally stable since May of this year.

Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up only 6% of the inventory but 27% of the new sales and 10% of the closings.  One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 8% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 30% of all new sales.  So, the distressed market is diminished and seems stable.

Napa County Luxury Homes: Sales of luxury homes (sales price in excess of $900,000) in Napa County enjoyed growth in activity in the last twelve months.  There has been a 14% increase in the number of luxury homes sold – 201 from 1/1/13 to 12/31/13 compared to 176 from 1/1/12 to 12/31/12.  The inventory of Luxury Homes (113) is 17% lower than it was a year ago and 43% below the high of 198 homes this past September.

Napa: There were 173 available homes in inventory at the end of December in the City of Napa.  This is 7.5% higher than the inventory a year ago (161) and 6% below the inventory last month (184). There were 57 new sales for the month.  This is 30% lower than the sales in December 2012 (81) and 40% below the pace last month (95).  The 57 new sales this December were the lowest number of new sales in the City of Napa for any month since December 2008.  There is a three months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent 7% of the inventory, 25% of the new sales for the month and 5% of the closings for the month.  This compares to 7%, 26% and 40% a year ago.

Up Valley: There were 88 available homes in inventory at the end of December in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville).  This is 27% lower than the inventory a year ago (120) and 28% lower than the inventory last month (122). The 88 homes in inventory at the end of December is the lowest number of home in inventory in the Up Valley market for any month since March 2000.  Only three times since 2000 has the inventory fallen below 100 units.  There were 17 new sales for the month.  This is 21% higher than the sales in December 2012 (14) slightly above the pace last month (15).  There is a 5.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  There were 92 sales Up Valley in excess of $900,000 in 2013 compared to 83 in 2012.

Closings: The following agents enjoyed closings for the period from December 1 to December 31, 2013:

In our Cloverdale office, Ron and Jane Pavelka had two closings.

In our Healdsburg office:  Gina Cleaver had two closings;  and Kent Mitchell, Starletta Thorpe, Diane Harris and Debbie Adler each had a closing.

In our Napa office:  Nick Simone had four closings;  and Tressa Anderson and Adam Ghisletta had two closings each.

In our Petaluma office:  Jose Albor, David Poulsen, Joan and Paul Claeyssens and Scott Murphy and John Stevens each had a closing.

In our Santa Rosa offices:  Donald Hamilton enjoyed four closings;  Charles Himes and Beth Sirks had two closings each;  and Jill Rake, Lindsey Ehrlicher and Tommy Apostolides each had a closing.

In our Sebastopol office:  Kay Henzerling had two closings;  and Pam Buda, Laurie Parris, Jeff Seligson and Liz Uribe, each had a closing.

In our Sonoma office: Sheila Deignan, Shanis Nelson and Michael Crain of Michael Crain Vineyard Advisors had two closings each; and Erin George, Herb Heil and Mari Johnson each had a closing.

And, in our St. Helena office: Liz Manfree had two closings and Linda Alioto and Gina Papale White each had a closing for this period.

Congratulations to all!