2014 Year Wrap-up and Wine Country Real Estate Trends in December

 Welcome to 2015

I read an article in the past week that recommended that rather than creating resolutions for the New Year one might consider writing a personal mission statement (or refine an existing one). The idea is to have a “why” behind the resolutions. The article suggests asking the following questions in developing your personal mission statement:

  • Who do I want to be?
  • Who or what matters most to me?
  • What are my deepest values?
  • How do I define success in my life?
  • What makes my life really worth living?
  • How do I want people to describe me?
  • How do I want to be remembered?

From personal experience, I can tell you that these are very challenging questions. I encourage you to give them some time.

Part of my personal mission statement is “value happiness and joy” and this year I have a goal of looking for more humor in my life.   So if you see me laughing or smiling – it’s okay!

What Happened in Wine Country Real Estate in 2014?

(All data is taken from BAREIS MLS representing properties in the MLS system and does not represent all real estate activity in the market. The information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.)

While the number of closings of single-family homes and condominiums in Wine Country (Sonoma and Napa Counties) dropped 8% in 2014 compared to 2013, the average sales price of all of the closed homes increased by 15%. So, the overall dollar volume of sales was ahead by 6.2% year over year. The results were significantly different in Sonoma and Napa Counties. In Sonoma, there were 5,315 closings for the year compared to 5,619 in 2013 – a decrease of 5.4%.   The average sales price of all of the homes sold in Sonoma County increased from $508,000 in 2013 to $570,000 – a 12.3% increase.   In Napa County, there were 1,287 closings in 2014 compared to 1,520 in 2013 – a 15.3% decrease. The average sales price, however, advanced by 25.7% – well above state and national norms.

 Wine Country Group Results for 2014

 Reflecting the trends of the overall market, The Wine Country Group closed 723 homes compared to 860 a year ago – a decrease of 16%. The average sales price of all Wine Country Group closings in 2014 was $648,998 compared to $547,605 in 2013 – an 18.5% increase. We had $469 million dollars in closings compared to $471 million a year ago.

The Santa Rosa office led the Wine Country Group with 157 closings for the year and the Sonoma office had 142. The Sebastopol office (including Bodega Bay) had 99 closings, Napa 89, Healdsburg 86, St. Helena 76, Petaluma 38 and Cloverdale 36.

Wine Country Group Results for December 2014:

 The Wine Country Group had 54 closings in December 2014 compared to 51 a year ago and 61 last month. In December, we closed homes with a total value of $31 million compared to $24.8 million a year ago and $36 last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in December was $574,432 compared to $487,212 a year ago (an increase of 12.3%) and $590,104 last month. The Sebastopol office led in December with 12 closings while the Santa Rosa office had 10 closings and the Sonoma, Napa and Healdsburg offices each had 7. The Sebastopol office also led in dollar volume with $8.9 million in closings while the Santa Rosa office had $8.0 million and the Healdsburg office had $5.2 million.

The Wine Country Group opened 40 new escrows for the month compared to 53 a year ago and 69 last month. The Group had 12 new listings compared to 11 in December 2013 and 18 last month. We currently have 56 pending sales with a value of $37 million dollars. We have 98 active listings with a value of $95 million dollars. Our average listing price is $966,000. This is 13% lower than the $1,107,000 average a year ago.

 Wine Country Real Estate results for December 2014:

 Sonoma County: The inventory of single-family homes and condominiums for sale in Sonoma County at the end of December stood at 512 compared to 654 last month and 575 a year ago. This is an 11% decrease on a year over year basis and a 22% decrease from last month. This reflects typical trends through the holidays, but it is also the lowest level of Inventory in Sonoma County in the past fourteen years. Inventory is just about one-half of what it was in July (997). It is one fifth of the inventory that the County had in December of 2007 (2,828). New sales (285) in December were 3.6% ahead of that of last December (275) and were 27% behind the pace of last month (390). There is just a 1.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County (Days on Market) is 79 days compared to 80 a year ago. This selling period has stabilized over the past year. The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $478,000. This is an 11% increase over the median price in December 2013 ($429,000). The median price for closed sales has been in a relatively narrow range since March of this year. The current median price is still 19% below the peak median price for the County ($589,000) recorded in June 2005.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,100,000). There has been a 22.5% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (332) from 1/1/14 to 12/31/14 compared to 271 from 1/1/13 to 12/31/13. There were 129 luxury properties in inventory at the end of December compared to 164 last month and 139 a year ago. Days on Market for Luxury Home sales was 120 days this December compared to 126 days a year ago. This compares to 79 days on market for all closed properties in the County in December.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (21) at the end of December 2014 was 23.5% ahead of the inventory a year ago (17) and was 27.6% below the level of the inventory last month (29). There were 9 new homes sold in December 2014 compared to 7 a year ago and 9 last month. There is a 2.3 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales. The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in Cloverdale in December was 80 days compared to 108 a year ago.

Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of December (28) was 22% ahead of the inventory a year ago (23) and about equal to the inventory last month (29). There was just one new home sale for the month of December compared to 7 a year ago and 7 last month. It might have been bad weather in December that held the sales down – we’ll look at it next month. The Days on Market of the 6 homes that closed in December was 228 days compared to 130 days a year ago and 148 days last month. Clearly, some older inventory was closing last month.

Healdsburg Trends: There were 37 homes and condominiums available in Healdsburg at the end of December. This is 16% below the inventory last December (44) and 30% below the inventory of last month (53). This is the lowest level of inventory in Healdsburg in the last fourteen years. There were 12 new sales for the month. This is a bit ahead of the pace in December 2013 (11) and about equal to the pace last month (13). The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 3.1 months. The Days on Market for the 21 homes closed in December was 122 days compared to 61 days a year ago and 104 days last month.

Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (39) in Petaluma at the end of December was 9% below the inventory in December 2013 (43) and it was 39% below the inventory last month (64). Like the County, this is the lowest level of inventory in Petaluma for over fourteen years. New sales in Petaluma in December (40) were 38% ahead of the 29 new sales in December 2013 and 15% behind the sales last month (47). There is just a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 45 homes that closed in December was $540,000. This is 2% ahead of the median last December ($530,000). The Days on Market for the closed sales for the month was 59 compared to 83 days a year ago.

Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of December (183) was about equal to that of a year ago (184) and was 21% below the inventory last month (231). New sales in December (124) were 4.2% ahead of the pace in December 2013 (119) and they were 25% below the pace of last month (165). There is only a 1.5 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 171 homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was $437,000 compared to $395,000 a year ago – a 10.6% increase. The Days on Market for the homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was 67 days compared to 72 days a year ago.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (24) in Sebastopol at the end of December was 31% lower than that of December 2013 (35) and it was 11% lower than that of last month (27). This is the lowest available inventory in Sebastopol in over fourteen years. Inventory can typically be twice this large around this time of year in Sebastopol. There were 11 new sales for the month of December. This is 10% ahead of the pace in December 2013 (10) and 52% behind the pace of last month (23). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market of the 20 closed homes in Sebastopol in December was 79 days compared to 92 days a year ago. The median price of the sales that closed in December in Sebastopol was $708,000.   This is 6.8% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($663,000).

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (64) in December in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) was 16% ahead of the level of last December (55) and it was 11% below the inventory of last month (72). There were 23 new sales for the month. This is 23% below the pace of sales in December 2013 (30) and it is 44% behind the pace of last month (41). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The Days on Market for the 51 closed sales in Sonoma in December was 82 days compared to 69 a year ago and 76 last month. Nearly 40% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above while just 10% of the new sales (2) and 25% of the closings (13) last month were priced at $1,000,000 or more. There were 12% more sales (120) in excess of $1,000,000 in the Sonoma Valley over the past twelve months than the prior twelve months (107).

Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (24) in Windsor at the end of December is down 20% from the 30 homes in inventory in December 2013 and is 27% below the 33 homes last month. New sales in Windsor in December (20) were equal to the sales in December 2013 and were 9.1% behind the 22 sales last month. There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 24 sales that closed in December in Windsor was $475,000.   This is 7% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($445,000).

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County in December continued to decline. The inventory (289) is 5% ahead of the inventory in December 2013 (275) and 14% below the inventory last month (336). New sales (76) were equal to the pace last year and 28% below the pace of last month (106). There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 92 homes closed in December was 92 days compared to 98 days a year ago and 82 days last month. The median price of homes closed in December in Napa County ($488,000) settled back from the high level where it was last month ($590,000). It was 6% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($458,000). The current median price is still 32% below the peak median price for the County ($675,000) recorded in June 2006.

Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $1,600,000 in Napa County at this time. The sales of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,600,000) in Napa County have increased 45% for the period 1/1/14 to 12/31/14 (93) compared to 1/1/13 to 12/31/13 (64). There were 71 luxury homes in inventory at the end of December 2014 compared to 76 at the end of December 2013. There is a 14.2 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 15.2 months supply last year.

Napa: There were 157 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in the City of Napa. This is 3% higher than the inventory a year ago (153) and it is 12% below the supply last month (178). New sales (52) were 18% ahead of the pace of December 2013 (44) and they were 32.5% behind the pace of last month (77). There is a 3.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 67 homes closed in December in the City of Napa was 74 days compared to 95 days in December 2013. The median price of the homes that closed in Napa in December was $450,000. This is equal to the median price of the homes closed in December 2013. The median price in December remains 31% below the peak median price in the City of Napa ($650,000) recorded in August 2006.

Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (91) in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of December 2014 was 3.4% ahead of the level of 88 in December 2013 and it was 14% below the level last month (106). There were 7 new sales for the month compared to 17 a year ago and 16 last month. This is by far the lowest level of new sales for any month this year. With this sales pace there is a 13 months supply of inventory compared to 5.2 months a year ago. The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month was 189 days compared to 114 days in December a year ago and 92 days for the County as a whole. We’ll see if sales pick up again in January in Up Valley Napa compared to this month.

Closings: The following agents enjoyed closings for the period from December 1 to December 31, 2014:

In our Cloverdale office: Ron and Jane Pavelka enjoyed three closings.

In our Healdsburg office: Mike Downes had three closings; Dee Grohmann had two closings and Debbie Adler, Gina Cleaver, Debby Hendershot and Tom Lawrence each had a closing.

In our Napa office: Nick Simone, Adam Ghisletta, Charlie Laughlin, Michael Senn, Mary Trumble, Damon Savoia and Tressa Anderson each had a closing.

In our Petaluma office: JoAnn Claeyssens and Paul Claeyssens each had a closing.

In our Santa Rosa office: Donald Hamilton enjoyed a Wine Country Group leading four closings for the month; Lindsay Ehrlicher had three closings; Christen Hamilton had two closings and Renee Anderson, Tommy Apostolides and Charles Himes each had a closing.

In our Sebastopol office: Liz Uribe, Kathleen Henzerling and Jeffrey Seligson had two closings each and Seyed Ahmad, Sandra Matthews, Bette Meritt, Laurie Parris, Martha Saly and Joseph Withers each had a closing.

In our Sonoma office: Sheila Deignan, Diane Litchfield, Frank Lazzarotto, Patty Keiser, Oak Senvardarli, Diane Krause and Michael Crain of Michael Crain Properties each had a closing.

And, in our St. Helena office: David Barker and Liz Manfree had two closings each and Rianne Pasquariello had a closing.

Congratulations to all