Wine Country Real Estate Trends in December 2014

 Top 5 Housing Predictions on a National Basis for 2015:

Per a recent article by Realtor.com the following are their top five housing predictions for 2015. These trends are likely to be skewed to geographic areas with higher affordability such as the Midwest and the South.

1.  Millennials (those born between 1982 and 2004) will drive two-thirds of household formations over the next five years. Next year’s addition of 2.75 million jobs and increased household formation will be the two key factors driving first-time buyer sales.

2.  The number of existing home sales will increase approximately 8% over the level in 2014.

3.  Home prices will gain four to five percent for the year.

4.  Mortgage rates will end the year at 5%.

5.  Home affordability will decrease five to ten percent.

Wine Country Group Results for November 2014:

 The Wine Country Group had 61 closings in November 2014 compared to 56 a year ago and 66 last month. In November, we closed homes with a total value of $36 million compared to $36.4 million a year ago and $39.8 last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in November was $590,104 compared to $650,307 a year ago and $603,754 last month. The Santa Rosa office led this month with 23 closings while the Healdsburg office had 10 closings and the Sonoma office had 8. The Santa Rosa office also led in dollar volume with $15.9 million in closings while the Healdsburg office had $4.8 million and the Sonoma office had $4.4 million.

The Wine Country Group opened 69 new escrows for the month compared to 53 a year ago and 72 last month. The Group had 18 new listings compared to 15 in November 2013 and 25 last month. We currently have 80 pending sales with a value of $49 million dollars. We have 120 active listings with a value of $112 million dollars. Our average listing price is $936,000. This is 10% lower than the $1,036,000 average a year ago.

 Wine Country Real Estate results for November 2014:

 Sonoma County: The inventory of single-family homes and condominiums for sale in Sonoma County at the end of November stood at 654 compared to 851 last month and 702 a year ago. This is a 7% decrease on a year over year basis and a 23% decrease from last month – this same pattern occurred last year in November when inventory fell by 20%. Inventory was its highest in July (997) and reached a year long low (575) in December of last year. New sales (421) in November were 12% ahead of that of last November (376) and were 12% behind the pace of last month (478). New sales have sustained a healthy pace in this range over the past ten months. There is just a 1.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County (Days on Market) is 71 days compared to 72 a year ago. This selling period has stabilized as the norm over the past year. The median price of homes closed in November in Sonoma County was $460,000. This is an 6.5% increase over the median price in November 2013 ($432,000). The median price for closed sales has been in a relatively narrow range since March of this year. The current median price is still 22% below the peak median price for the County ($589,000) recorded in June 2005.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,000,000). There has been a 20% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (378) from 12/1/13 to 11/30/14 compared to 316 from 12/1/12 to 11/30/13. There were 173 luxury properties in inventory at the end of November compared to 215 last month and 175 a year ago. Days on Market for closed Luxury sales was 113 days both last year and this compared to 71 days on the market for the overall market.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (29) at the end of November 2014 was 53% ahead of the inventory a year ago (19) and was 29% below the level of the inventory last month (34). There were 10 new homes sold in November 2014 compared to 14 a year ago and 16 last month. There is a 2.9 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales. The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in Cloverdale in November was 79 days compared to 64 a year ago.

Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of November (29) was 8.5% below the inventory a year ago (31) and 9% below the inventory last month (32). There were 7 new home sales for the month of November compared to 3 a year ago and 4 last month. There is a 4 months supply of available inventory in the Coastal Sonoma market based on the current pace of new sales. The Days on Market of the 4 homes that closed in November was 148 days compared to 114 days a year ago and 65 days last month.

Healdsburg Trends: There were 53 homes and condominiums available in Healdsburg at the end of November. This is about equal to the inventory last November (55) and 21% below the inventory of last month (67). There were 13 new sales for the month. This is 63% ahead of the pace in November 2013 (8) and 19% behind the pace last month (16). The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 4.1 months. The Days on Market for the 11 homes closed in November was 112 days compared to 143 days a year ago and 106 days last month.

Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (64) in Petaluma at the end of November was 21% ahead of the inventory in November 2013 (53) and it was 22% below the inventory last month (82). Unlike most of the areas in the County, new sales in Petaluma in November (56) were 33% ahead of the 42 new sales in November 2013 and 12% ahead of the sales last month (50). The pattern of new sales in Petaluma has been “choppy” over the past six months. There is just a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 42 homes that closed in November was $545,000. This is 8% ahead of the median last November ($505,000). The Days on Market for the closed sales for the month was 65 – about the same as it was a year ago.

Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of November (231) was slightly ahead of that of a year ago (223) and was 22.5% below the inventory last month (298). New sales in November (175) were 2% ahead of the pace in November 2013 (171) and they were 11% below the pace of last month (196). There is only a 1.3 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 147 homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $435,000 compared to $395,000 a year ago – a 10% increase. The Days on Market for the homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was 61 days compared to 62 days a year ago.

Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (27) in Sebastopol at the end of November was 39% lower than that of November 2013 (44) and it was 31% lower than that of last month (39). This is the lowest available inventory in Sebastopol in over fourteen years. Inventory can typically be twice this large around this time of year in Sebastopol. There were 23 new sales for the month of November. This is 15% ahead of the pace in November 2013 (20) and 21% behind the pace of last month (29). There is just a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – the lowest supply in Wine Country. The Days on Market of the 30 closed homes in Sebastopol in November was 66 days compared to 82 days a year ago. The median price of the 30 sales that closed in November in Sebastopol was $675,000.   This is 6% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($635,000).

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (72) in November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) was 16% below the level of last November (86) and it was 30% below the inventory of last month (103). This is a similar pattern to last year when inventory dropped 26% in November. There were 43 new sales for the month. This is 23% ahead of the pace of sales in November 2013 (35) and it is 23% behind the pace of last month (56). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The Days on Market for the 40 closed sales in Sonoma in November was 76 days compared to 51 a year ago and 81 last month. Nearly one-half of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above while just 26% of the new sales (11) and 25% of the closings (10) last month were priced at $1,000,000 or more. There are 14% more new sales of homes over $1,000,000 in the past twelve months versus the prior twelve months – 119 vs. 104.

Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (33) in Windsor at the end of November is down 11% from the 37 homes in inventory in November 2013 and is 23% below the 43 homes last month. New sales in Windsor in November (23) were 23% behind the sales in November 2013 (30) and were 9.5% ahead of the 21 sales last month. There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 24 sales that closed in November in Windsor was $480,000.   This is 13% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($425,000).

Napa County: Across all of Wine Country – the strong median closing price in Napa County stands out as an interesting statistic for this month.  The median price of homes closed in November in Napa County ($590,000) was 24% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($475,000) and was the highest since November of 2007. The current median price is just 12.6% below the peak median price for the County ($675,000) recorded in June 2006. The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County in November continued to decline. The inventory (336) is 18% lower than it was in October (408) and 5% higher than it was a year ago (389). New sales (119) were 10% ahead of the pace last year (108) and about equal to the pace of last month (112). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 90 homes closed in November was 82 days compared to 89 days a year ago and 88 days last month.

Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $1,800,000 in Napa County at this time. The Sales of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,800,000) in Napa County have increased 25% for the period 12/1/13 to 11/30/14 (76) compared to 12/1/12 to 11/30/13 (61). That being said, there was only one luxury home that closed in November 2014 compared to eight last year and eleven last month. There were 74 luxury homes in inventory at the end of November 2014 compared to 82 at the end of November 2013. There is a 10.6 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 16.4 months supply last year.

Napa: There were 178 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in the City of Napa. This is 9% higher than the inventory a year ago (163) and it is 20% below the supply last month (223). New sales (85) were 10% ahead of the pace of November 2013 (77) and they were 21% ahead of the pace of last month (70). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 56 homes closed in November in the City of Napa was 86 days compared to 73 days in November 2013. The median price of the homes that closed in Napa in November was $575,000. This is 22% ahead of the median price in November 2013 ($473,000). The median price in November is just 11.5% below the peak median price in the City of Napa ($650,000) recorded in August 2006.

Up Valley: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (106) in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of November 2014 was 13% below the level of 122 in November 2013 and it was 18% below the level last month (129). There were 17 new sales for the month compared to 24 last month and 15 a year ago – so the sales pace remains steady. With this sales pace there is a 6.2 months supply of inventory compared to 8.1 months a year ago. The Days on Market for the 19 closings last month was 102 days compared to 149 days in November a year ago and 82 days for the County as a whole. The Up Valley market continues to be a healthy market.

Closings: The following agents enjoyed closings for the period from November 1 to November 30, 2014:

In our Cloverdale office: Ron and Jane Pavelka enjoyed five closings.

In our Healdsburg office: Linda Farwell had three closings; Gina Cleaver and Mike Downes had two closings each and Bernie Curley, Perry Hardin and Jose Hernandez each had a closing.

In our Napa office: Nick Simone, Adam Ghisletta, Stacey Oftedal and Tressa Anderson each had a closing.

In our Petaluma office: JoAnn Claeyssens, John Stevens and Scott Murphy and Randy Haak each had a closing.

In our Santa Rosa office: Lindsay Ehrlicher enjoyed a Wine Country Group leading seven closings for the month; Carlos Rivas of Mason McDuffie Commercial Real Estate, Donald Hamilton and Christen Hamilton had three closings each; Tommy Apostolides, Charles Himes and Ryan Styles had two closings each and Keith Carinalli and Don Jaramillo each had a closing.

In our Sebastopol office: Christopher Williams had two closings and William Cole, Michaela Kalemba, Bette Meritt, Jeffrey Seligson, Norbert Tenenbaum and Jeanne Woods each had a closing.

In our Sonoma office: Sheila Deignan and Herb Heil eacy had two closings and Carl MacPetrie, Erin George and Tiffany Knef each had a closing. Tracy Reynes enjoyed the first closing of her real estate career – Congratulations!

And, in our St. Helena office: Linda Alioto had a closing.

Congratulations to all