Wine Country Real Estate Trends – November 2012
Wine Country Group Results for November 2012
The Wine Country Group had 74 closings this November compared to 84 in November 2011. Our dollar volume was $37 million compared to $39 million last year. Our Sebastopol office led with 21 closings in November while the Healdsburg and Sonoma offices had 15. The Sebastopol office also led in dollar volume closed with $12 million dollars in sales volume while the Healdsburg office had $8.5 million and the Sonoma office had $7.8 million. Our average closing sales price was $505,000 comparing to $475,000 a year ago – a 6% increase. Our escrow openings totaled 67 units compared to 72 in November 2011. We had 32 new listings compared to 36 a year ago.
The Wine Country Group currently has 96 pending sales with a value of $58 million dollars. We have 130 active listings with a value of $124 million dollars. Last year at this time we had 244 listings, so we are off 47%. Correspondingly, our average listing price is $957,000 – up 13% from an average of $849,000 a year ago.
The Wine Country Group currently enjoys number one market share (in either (or both) units and dollar volume) in our Cloverdale, Healdsburg, and Sebastopol markets.
Sonoma County: Sonoma County has the lowest inventory of available homes (703) for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. Even in the height of the boom market in 2004-05, we had more inventory than we do now. The inventory is less than half of the amount it was in November 2011 (1,491). For the past decade, our inventory peaked at 3,552 units in September 2007. We currently have only 20% of that amount. New sales (450) were 26% below that of last month (604) and 8% lower than last year (488). This is the lowest pace of sales for any month going back to February 2011. There is a just a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace – a stressed market. New listings for the month (317) were 39% lower than the pace in November 2011 (519). The median price of homes closed in November in Sonoma County ($350,000) was 17% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($298,000).
Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up 15% of the inventory and 35% of the new sales. One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 33% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 57% of all new sales. There is 0.7 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace. The median price of 178 distressed properties that sold in the month of November ($275,000) was 8% higher than November a year ago ($255,000).
Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (35) at the end of November 2012 was 26% below that of a year ago (47) and was slightly below the inventory last month (40). Sales for the month of November (16) were equal to the sales a year ago (17) and 33% ahead of the sales reported last month (12). There is a 2.2 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales. 26% of the inventory is distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), 31% of the new sales and 67% of the closings for the month are distressed properties.
Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (66) in Healdsburg at the end of November was down 32% from that of last year (97) and it was down 15% from that of last month (78). This is the lowest inventory in Healdsburg since February 2005 when there were just 57 units available. New sales (24) were up 118% from the 11 new sales in November 2011 and were slightly ahead of the 21 sales last month. The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace dropped to 2.8 months. Only 6% of the inventory in Healdsburg consists of “distressed properties” (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure), but 21% of the new sales were distressed properties and 29% of the closings were distressed properties. There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the inventory and sales pace of distressed properties.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (64) in Petaluma at the end of November was a whopping 62% lower than a year ago (167) and it was 17% lower than the supply last month (77). As with the County as a whole, this is the lowest level of inventory in Petaluma since the year 2000. New sales in November (56) were 11% below the pace in November 2011 (63) and they were 25% lower than the pace of last month (75). There is only a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 16% of the available inventory, 38% of new sales and 27% of closings for the month. This compares to 38% of inventory, 56% of new sales and 44% of closings in November 2011.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (194) in Santa Rosa at the end of November was 64% lower than a year ago (535). It was down 13% from the Inventory last month (222). This is the lowest level of inventory in Santa Rosa since the beginning of the millennium. The level of new listings for the month (129) was also the lowest since before January 2000. There were 129 new listings and 190 new sales for the month – you can see where that trend will lead. New sales in November (190) were 11% below the pace in November 2011 (214) and they were 22% behind the pace of last month (242). There is only a one months supply of available homes paced on the current sales pace. The median price of homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $325,000 compared to $275,000 a year ago – an 18% increase. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 21% of the available inventory (continues decreasing trend), 35% of new sales and 42% of closings for the month. This compares to 44% of inventory, 62% of new sales and 52% of closings a year ago. There is only one half months supply of distressed properties available.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (54) in Sebastopol at the end of November was 37% lower than that of November 2011 (86) and it was 22% lower than that of last month (69). As with the County as a whole, this is the lowest inventory recorded for Sebastopol since 2000. There were 21 new sales for the month of November compared to 15 in November 2011 and 42 last month. There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There is only one distressed property (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) available in Sebastopol. This market is essentially out of distressed properties at the current time. If they come on the market, they sell right away.
Sonoma Valley: There were 100 available homes in inventory at the end of November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood). This is the lowest level of inventory for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. It is 43% lower than the inventory a year ago (174) and 19% below the inventory last month (123). There were 36 new sales for the month. This is about equal to the sales in November 2011 (38) but 32% behind the pace last month (56). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent just 6% of the inventory (6 units), 36% of the new sales for the month and 22% of the closings for the month. This compares to 20%, 45% and 44% a year ago. Distressed sales are having about half of the impact that they had a year ago.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (23) in Windsor at the end of November was a whopping 70% lower than a year ago (77). It was equal to the supply last month (23). This is the lowest level of inventory in Windsor since the beginning of the millennium. New sales in November (19) were 57% lower than the pace in October 2011(44) and they were 60% below the pace of last month (48). There is only a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up 35% of the available inventory, 42% of new sales and 47% of closings for the month. Distressed properties are having a bigger effect on the market in Windsor than in other parts of the County.
Napa County: The County has the lowest inventory of available homes (344) for any month since December 2004, eight years ago when the market was red hot. The inventory is 41% lower than it was in November 2011 (580) and 13% lower than last month (394). New sales (113) were 23% lower than last year (147) and were 26% below the pace of last month (152). There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace. New listings for the month (80) were 53% lower than the pace in November 2011 (170). The median price of homes closed in November in Napa County ($375,000) was 18% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($318,000).
Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up only 9% of the inventory but 35% of the new sales and 32% of the closings. One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 20% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 59% of all new sales. There is 0.8 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace. The median price of 40 distressed properties that sold in the month of November ($323,000) was 28% higher than November a year ago ($252,000).
Napa: There were 176 available homes in inventory at the end of November in the City of Napa. This is the lowest level of inventory for any month going back as far as my database does – January 2000. It is 46% lower than the inventory a year ago (328) and 16% below the inventory last month (209). There were 71 new sales for the month. This is the lowest sales pace for any month since January 2011. This is 31% lower than the sales in November 2011 (103) and 39% below the pace last month (116). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent 8.5% of the inventory (15 units), 32% of the new sales for the month and 23% of the closings for the month. This compares to 20%, 54% and 46% a year ago. Distressed sales are having about half of the impact that they had a year ago.
Up Valley: There were 141 available homes in inventory at the end of November in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville). This is 22% lower than the inventory a year ago (180) and 11% lower than the inventory last month (159). There were 23 new sales for the month. This is 77% higher than the sales in November 2011 (13) and also 77% higher than the pace last month (13). There is a 6.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent just 4% of the inventory (6 units), and 35% of the new sales for the month. This is not much different that it was a year ago. A healthy Up Valley market is generally a good sign for Wine Country real estate.
Closings: The following agents enjoyed closings for the period from November 1 to November 30, 2012:
In our Cloverdale office, Ron and Jane Pavelka had a Wine Country Group leading seven closings.
In our Healdsburg office: Diane Harris, Kent Mitchell, Carol Lexa and Nicki Rector each had two closings; Ann Amtower, Debbie Adler, Mike Downes, Gina Cleaver, Hank Lane, Dee Grohmann, Judy Csimma, Susan Montgomery and Betty Hagedon each had a closing.
In our Napa office: Lynda Jensen enjoyed three closings; Adam Ghisletta and Nick Simone each had two closings; and Tressa Anderson had a closing.
In our Santa Rosa offices: Carlos Rivas of Mason McDuffie Commercial Real Estate closed two leases; Larry Tristano and Charles Himes had two closing; and Charles Himes and Jill Rake each had a closing.
In our Sebastopol office: Barbara Paul enjoyed four closings; Laurie Parris had three closings; Liz Uribe, Allison Pharis, Francine Passalacqua and Will Kent enjoyed two closings each; and Michael and Pauline Pellini, Kaye Henzerling, Jeffrey Seligson, Gene Bonino and Will Brown, Bill Cole, Lisa Dawson, Pam Buda, Sandie Schach, Pauline Pellini, Cheryl Ellis, and Doug Schaeffer and Cary Fargo each had a closing.
In our Sonoma office: Joyce Davison enjoyed four closings; Erick Rothfeld had two closings; and Mike Caselli, Herb Heil, Mari Johnson, Dan Gallagher, Isaac Raboy, Pam Giusto, Barbara Sommerville, Sheila Deignan and Diane Litchfield each had a closing.
And, in our St. Helena office: Linda Alioto and Jeff Veness each had two closings and Gina Papale White and Liz Manfree each had a closing for this period.
Congratulations to all!