Wine Country Real Estate Trends in August 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for August 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 53 closings in August 2018 compared to 54 last month and 65 last August. On a year to date basis, we are equal in units closed comparing 2018 to 2017. In August, we closed homes with a total value of $34 million compared to $40 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in August was $641,509.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 46 pending sales with a value of $29 million dollars. We have 60 active listings with a value of $57 million dollars. Our average listing price is $950,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for August 2018:
Lot Listings After the Fires: Over 5,000 structures burned in Sonoma and Napa Counties in the October, 2017 fires. We continue to see lots coming on the market, but for the first time since November of last year, the inventory has dropped slightly. Perhaps, we’ve reached the point where most of the lots to be resold are, or have been, on the market. At the end of August, there were 513 vacant lots on the market – the vast majority being from the fires. This is an increase of 70% from the inventory in August 2017 (302). There were 69 new sales in August 2018. This is a 138% increase over the 29 new sales in August 2017. There is a 9 months supply of inventory based on this sales pace. 57 lots closed in August with a median sales price of $260,000. This compares to $280,000 last month and $237,000 last year.
We continue to estimate that the “fire” lots are being offered at 60% of what might have been their value before the fires. The complications of clearing, permitting and building on these sites remain high.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of August stands at 1,216. This is 43% ahead of the inventory in August 2017 (849) and it is up 7% from the inventory last month (1,135). This is the highest inventory for any month since November 2011 – the end of the recession. This continues to point to a shifting market. Inventory has declined in Marin County for the past two months and has been essentially flat in Napa County for the past three months. New sales (484) in Sonoma County in August were 4% below the pace of August 2017 (503) and they were 2.5% ahead of the pace last month (472). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 33 (Rohnert Park) to 82 (Oakmont) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 50 days. This remains a relatively low “Days on Market figure” for the County. The median price of homes closed in August in Sonoma County was $645,000. This is a 9.7% increase over the median price in August 2017 ($588,000). As we expected, this has settled down from the 12% year over year increase in the first part of the year, but it is still robust.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,100,000 (down from $1.2M last month)). There has been a 29% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (667) from 9/1/17 to 8/31/18 compared to 518 sales in the period 9/1/16 to 8/31/17. The inventory of luxury homes (305) is 5% below the inventory in August 2017 (322 homes). The pace of new sales (70) in August this year is 40% ahead of the pace of a year ago (50) and it is 11% ahead of the pace last month (63). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 61 days this August compared to 79 days a year ago. This compares to 50 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in August. There is a 4.4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.5 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (50) in Cloverdale at the end of August is 92% ahead of the inventory in August of 2017 (26). It is 39% ahead of the inventory last month (36). There were 11 new sales in Cloverdale in August. This compares to 14 sales in August 2017 and 10 new sales last month. There is a 4.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 7 homes that closed in August was 54 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There were 26 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 10% below the inventory (29) a year ago and it is about equal to the inventory last month (27). There were 10 new sales in August compared to 10 a year ago and 4 last month. There is now a 2.9 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. There were 6 closings in the month of August compared to 4 a month ago. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in August was 78 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 92 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 5% below the inventory in August 2017 (97) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (88). There were 21 new sales compared to 21 in July. Sales were 24% ahead of the pace of sales in August 2017 (17). The months of available inventory is now 4.4 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 20 homes that closed in August was 73 days.
Oakmont: Inventory remained high in August in Oakmont. The 50 homes available at the end of August is the highest since October 2010 – in the midst of the recession. It is 285% ahead of the inventory in August 2017 (13) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (52). New sales (19) in Oakmont are 19% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (16) and are 19% ahead of the pace of last month (16). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $630,000 for the 12 homes that closed in August. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in August was 82 days – the highest in our marketplace.
Petaluma: The inventory in Petaluma at the end of August (89) is 37% ahead of the inventory in August 2017 (65) and it is 14% below the inventory last month (104). There were 61 new sales for the month. This is 7% ahead of the 57 sales in August 2017 and it is slightly ahead of the number of new sales last month (59). The Petaluma market currently has 1.5 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace – one of the tightest markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 64 homes that closed in August was $745,000. This is 9% above the median price last August ($683,000). The Days on Market for the 64 homes that closed in August was 40 days.
Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of August (60) is the highest since November 2011 at the end of the recession. The inventory is 114% ahead of the inventory in August 2017 (28) and it is 22% ahead of the inventory last month (49). There were 43 new sales in Rohnert Park in August. This is equal to the number of sales in August 2017 and it is 27% ahead of the inventory last month (26.5%). There is 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($541,000) of the 36 homes and condominiums that closed in August is 3% higher than the median price a year ago ($525,000). In August 2011, the median price was $254,000. The Days on Market for the 36 homes that closed in August was 33 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August (82) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 22% ahead of the level of August 2017 (67) and it is 9% ahead of the inventory last month (75). This is the highest inventory in the Russian River since October 2011. There were 31 new sales for the month of August. This sales pace is down 9% from the pace in August 2017 (34) and it is about equal to the pace last month (32). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $520,000 for the 35 homes that closed in August. This is 12.5% ahead of the median price in August 2017 ($462,000). The Days on Market for the 35 homes that closed in August was 47 days.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of August (498) is 100% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (249) (that’s a big increase) and it is 7% ahead of the inventory last month (464). This is the highest inventory in Santa Rosa for any month since November 2011 – seven years ago at the end of the recession. New sales in August (192) are about equal to the pace of last August (195) and they are 7% ahead of the pace last month (185). There is a 2.6 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 180 homes closed in August in Santa Rosa was $582,000 compared to $560,000 a year ago – a 4% increase. The Days on Market for the 180 homes that closed in August was 47 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Sebastopol (83) is 48% ahead of the level of August 2017 (56) and it is about equal to the inventory last month (85). There were 26 new sales for the month of August. This is 73% ahead of the pace in August 2017 (15) and it is 10% below the pace last month (29). There is a 3.2 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 28 homes that closed in Sebastopol in August went from listing to pending in 64 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (118) at the end of August in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is about equal to the inventory last August (122) and it is 15% ahead of the inventory of last month (103). There were just 36 new sales for the month. This is 22% below the pace of sales in August 2017 (46) and it is 28% below the pace of last month (50). There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales compared to a 1.9 months supply last month. Sixty-two percent of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 50% of the new sales (18) in August were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of August starts at $2,900,000. 23 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 13 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 32 homes available in this quartile in August compared to 35 a year ago. There were three new sales in the top quartile in August creating an 11 months supply of inventory in this quartile based on the current sales pace. The closed homes over the past year closed at a price of roughly $1,000 per square foot of building area.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of August equals 63 properties. This is 62% ahead of the inventory in August 2017 (39) and it is 11% ahead of the 57 homes last month. This is the highest level of inventory in Windsor since November 2011 at the end of the recession. There were 29 new sales for the month. This is 28% below the pace of sales in August 2017 (40) and it is 9% below the pace of last month (32). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 33 homes that closed in August in Windsor was 47 days. The median price ($660,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in August is 10% higher than the median price a year ago ($599,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of August (404) is 8% ahead of the inventory in August 2017 (373) and it is 5% ahead of the inventory last month (385). New sales (133) are equal to the pace of last year (135) and are slightly below the pace of last month (138). There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 59 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 136 homes closed in August in Napa County ($726,000) was 14% higher than the median price of a year ago ($638,000). The median price of the homes closed last month was $700,000.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,200,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (64) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,200,000) in Napa County for the period 9/1/17 to 8/31/18 compared to 67 sales in the period 9/1/16 to 8/31/17 (62). There were 103 luxury homes in inventory at the end of August 2018 compared to 85 at the end of August 2017. There were nine new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 11.4 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 3 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 30 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of August in American Canyon. This is 11% ahead of the inventory a year ago (27) and it is also 11% ahead of the supply last month (27). New sales (20) were 5% below the pace of August 2017 (21) and they were 33% ahead the pace of last month (15). There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 34 days. The median price of the 11 homes that closed in American Canyon in August ($547,000) was a whopping 29% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($423,000). The median price in August 2009 was $275,000.
Napa: Fifty eight percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There were 234 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of August in the City of Napa. This is a 9% ahead of the inventory at the end of last month (206). It is 13% ahead of the supply at the end of August 2017 (199). New sales (86) were 3% below the pace of August 2017 (89) and they were 15% below the pace of last month (101). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 97 homes that closed in the City of Napa in August was $700,000. This is 8% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in August 2017 ($647,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of August (119) is equal to the level of 120 in August 2017 and it is essentially equal to the level last month (121). There were 27 new sales in the month compared to 21 a year ago and 20 last month. There is now a 4.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There were a hefty 27 closings in the Up Valley Market last month. The Days on Market for those closings was 82 days. Approximately 50% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,200,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (52 homes). There were six luxury home (price in excess of $2,200,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month. This is out of nine total luxury closings for the County.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of August in Angwin (17) is 26% below the level of August 2017 (23) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (20). There were three new sales for the month of August compared to two last month and two in August of 2017. There is a 5.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average asking price of the 17 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,377,000.