Wine Country Real Estate Results and Trends for 2017
Wine Country Market Value Shifts and Sales Trends for 2017: I’ve done a chart of Wine Country Market Value Shifts dating back to 1998. I’ve added the latest data for 2017 so if you’d like a copy, drop me an email. According to the Bay Area Real Estate Services MLS figures, the price of residential real estate across Wine Country (Sonoma and Napa Counties) increased by 5.9% in 2017. I’m expecting about the same or a little more in 2018. There were 6,458 closings of single-family homes and condominiums across Wine Country in 2017 compared to 6,572 closings in 2016. This is a 1.7% decrease in volume. There was a nominal decrease in volume in Sonoma County (5,105 in 2017 compared to 5,138 in 2016) while Napa Country was down 5.7% year over year at 1,353 units compared to 1,435 units in 2016. I expect the 2018 volume will again be slightly down from the volume in 2017. The total sales dollar volume was nearly $5 billion dollars – $3.7 billion in Sonoma and $1.2 billion in Napa.
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for December 2017
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 39 closings in December 2017 compared to 65 last month. In December, we closed homes with a total value of $26 million compared to $35 last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in December was $663,230. For the entire year of 2017, BHGRE|WCG closed 512 homes with a value of $311,391,087. The average selling price for the full year was $608,186. We took 325 listings for the year.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 39 pending sales with a value of $28 million dollars. We have 51 active listings with a value of $81 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,647,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for December 2017
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of December continued to drop and is the lowest for any month for which we have recorded going back over 15 years. The inventory stands at 460 and is down 24% from the inventory last month (535). It is down 22% from the inventory in December 2016 (520). It is down 55% from the 899 homes available at the end of September. New sales (296) in December were 22% behind that of last month (377) and were 18% ahead of the pace of December 2016 (252). There is just a 1.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 34 (Oakmont) to 93 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 61 days. The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $649,000. This is the highest median price that the County has ever experienced. It is a 16% increase over the median price in December 2016 ($560,000). We expect that the loss of homes in the fires will continue to put upwards pressure on prices in most locations throughout the County over the next few months. The counter to that may be the new federal tax law that may put downward pressure on home values in California.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,600,000). There has been a 12% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (198) from 1/1/17 to 12/31/17 compared to 177 from 1/1/16 to 12/31/16. The inventory of Luxury Homes dropped another 26 homes (20%) from last month. Still, the inventory of luxury homes is 9% ahead of where it was in December 2016 (98 homes). The pace of new sales (11) in December this year was 15% below the pace of a year ago (13) and was 45% below the pace last month (20). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 181 days this December compared to 179 days a year ago. This compares to 61 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in December. There is a 9.7 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.4 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (13) in Cloverdale at the end of December is about equal to the 12 homes in inventory in December last year and it is 38% below the 21 homes last month. There were 12 new sales in Cloverdale in December. This compares to 7 sales in December 2016 and 9 new sales last month. There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This compares to a 2.3 months supply last month.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) dropped dramatically in December. There were 17 homes available which is 39% below the inventory last month (28) and 23% below the inventory (22) a year ago. There were 7 new home sales for the month of December compared to 0 a year ago and 10 last month. There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. This is a relatively low number for Coastal Sonoma. Days on Market for the 7 homes that closed in December was 93 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 43 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 35% below the inventory in December 2016 (66) and it is also 35% below the inventory last month (66). There were 11 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 31% below the number of sales in December 2016 (16) and it is 39% below the pace last month (18). The months of available inventory is 3.9 months based on the current sales pace. Days on Market for the 23 homes that closed in December was 81 days.
Oakmont: There were 10 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of December. This is 44% lower than in December 2016 (18) and it is about equal to the inventory last month (11). There were 17 new sales for the month. This is 112% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (8) and 42% ahead of the pace of last month (12). Clearly, if the month started with 11 units and ended with ten units and there were 17 sales, homes had to be selling as soon as they hit the market. There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $750,000. The median price was $657,000 for the 18 homes closed in December – an increase of 7% over the price of $615,000 in December 2016.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of December (19) is 61% below the inventory in December 2016 (49) and it is 50% below the inventory last month (38). This is the lowest number of homes for sale in Petaluma for any month in the past 15 years – as far back as our data is accessible. There were 30 new sales for the month. This is equal to the number of new sales in December 2016 and is 14% below the 35 sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 0.6 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 31 homes that closed in December was $691,000. This is 6.3% ahead of the median price last December ($650,000).
Rohnert Park: For the past fourteen months, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park have outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. There were 20 new sales in December compared to 35 last month and 26 in December 2016. The inventory began the month at 13 homes and ended the month at 10 homes. There is just 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($525,000) of the 35 homes closed in December was 7% higher than the median price a year ago ($490,000). In December 2010, the median price was $194,000.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December (39) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 86% ahead of the level of December 2016 (21) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (41). There were 11 new sales for the month of December. This is 83% ahead of the pace in December 2016 (6) and 31% lower than the pace last month (16). There is a 3.5 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price ($425,000) of the 13 homes that closed in December was 8% higher than the median price a year ago ($394,000). In December 2010, the median price was $203,000.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of December (98) is 44% below the inventory of a year ago (174) and it is 26% below the inventory last month (132). As with the County as a whole, this is the lowest inventory in Santa Rosa for any month in the history of our current records (2002). New sales in December (137) were 25% ahead of the pace of last December (110) and they were 14% below the pace last month (160). There is a 0.7 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 146 homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was $611,000 compared to $540,000 a year ago – a 13% increase. This is the highest median price ever recorded in Santa Rosa. One must believe that the wildfires had an impact on these higher sales prices.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December (40) in Sebastopol is 60% ahead of the level of December 2016 (25) and it is about equal to the inventory last month (39). There were 15 new sales for the month of December. This is 67% ahead of the pace in December 2016 (9) and 21% below the pace last month (19). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 22 homes that closed in Sebastopol in December went from listing to pending in 79 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (75) at the end of December in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) continued to drop. At the end of December there were 83 fewer homes available (-52%) than at the end of September. The inventory is 8% above that of last December (69). There were 21 new sales for the month. This is 16% below the pace of sales in December 2016 (25) and it is 46% below the pace of last month (38). There is a 3.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 56% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 43% of the new sales (9) in December were priced at over $1,000,000. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of December started at $2,500,000. This is down from $3,000,000 at the end of October. Twenty-two homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 25 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 18 homes available in this quartile in December compared to 7 a year ago. There was just one new sale in the top quartile in December resulting in an 18 months supply of inventory in the top quartile based upon the current sales pace.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of December (8) is 65% below the inventory in December 2016 (23) and it is 43% below the 14 homes last month. This, also, is the lowest inventory for any month in Windsor dating back at least 15 years. There were 14 new sales for the month. This is 8% ahead of the pace of sales in December 2016 (13) and it is 30% below the pace of last month (20). There was a flurry in home purchases in October that subsided in November and December. There is still just a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 22 homes closed in December in Windsor was 53 days. The median price ($620,000) of the homes closed in December was 10% higher than the median price a year ago ($563,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of December (231) is 11% below the inventory in December 2016 (259) and it is 23% below the inventory last month (300). New sales (93) were 31% ahead of the pace of last year (71) and 10% below the pace of last month (103). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – trending towards a balanced market. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 73 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 110 homes closed in December in Napa County ($678,000) was 13% higher than the median price of a year ago ($598,000). This is the highest median price ever recorded for any month in Napa County.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,200,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (64) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is 13.5% lower for the period 1/1/17 to 12/31/17 compared to 74 from 1/1/16 to 12/31/16. There were 58 luxury homes in inventory at the end of December 2017 compared to 54 at the end of December 2016. There were 5 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in an 11.6 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.5 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 15 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in American Canyon. This is 12% below the inventory a year ago (17) and it is 25% below the supply last month (20). New sales (14) were 27% ahead of the pace of December 2016 (11) and they were slightly below the pace of last month (16). There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in American Canyon is currently 61 days. The median price of the 17 homes that closed in American Canyon in December was $490,000. This is in line with the median price over the past 12 months that has ranged from the low $400,000s to the mid $500,000s.
Napa: There were 121 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in the City of Napa. This is 20% lower than the inventory a year ago (151) and it is 24% lower than the supply last month (160). This is the lowest inventory for any month in the City of Napa for the fifteen years of records that we have. New sales (67) were 63% ahead of the pace of December 2016 (41) and they were 15% below the pace of last month (79). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 75 homes that closed in Napa in December was $695,000. This is 15% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in December 2016 ($603,000) and the highest median price ever recorded for a month in the City of Napa.
Up Valley Napa County: New sales in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) remained low in December. There were just 10 new sales in the month compared to 13 a year ago (-23%) and 8 last month. There is now a 7.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. We don’t see an apparent reason for this fall off in sales, but we’ll continue to watch it. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December (73) is about equal to the level of 74 in December 2016 and it is 25% below the level last month (97). The Days on Market for the 17 closings last month was 90 days. Approximately 57% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,200,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (33 homes). One sale out of the 5 luxury home sales in Napa County last month were in the Up Valley Market.