Wine Country Real Estate Trends in April 2017
One day last week, I noticed that there were three homes priced in excess of $2,500,000 in the Sonoma Valley that had cumulative price reductions of $600,000 (approximately 7%). Two have been on the market for 50 to 60 days and one has been on the market for approximately 21days. It will be interesting to see if price reductions become more prevalent in the high end of the Wine Country market.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County rose to 704 and is up 22% from the inventory last month (577). It is 5% below the inventory in April 2016 (743). New sales (489) in April were 16% ahead of the pace of last month (420) and were 2% below the pace of April 2016 (500). There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 20 (Windsor) to 105 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 52 days. The median price of homes closed in April in Sonoma County was $588,000. This is a 10% increase over the median price in April 2016 ($535,000). The current median price of homes closed in April is equal to the peak median price for the County ($589,000) recorded in June 2005.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,500,000). Last month, the top quartile began at $1,600,000. There has been a 15% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (212) from 5/1/16 to 4/30/17 compared to 184 from 5/1/15 to 4/30/16. The pace of new sales (28) in April this year was ahead of the pace of a year ago (24). There were 185 luxury properties in inventory at the end of April compared to 154 last month and 169 a year ago. The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 71 days this April compared to 58 days a year ago. This compares to 52 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in April. There is a 6.6 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.4 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. On a statistical basis, it continues to be a “Buyers Market” in the high end.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (24) in Cloverdale at the end of April was 14% ahead of the 21 homes in inventory in April 2016 and it was 26% ahead of the 19 homes last month. There were 12 new sales in Cloverdale in April. This is 25% below the 16 sales in April 2016 and 37% below the new sales last month (19). There is a two months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of April (27) was 29% ahead of the inventory a year ago (21) and about equal to the inventory last month (26). There were 8 new home sales for the month of April compared to 10 a year ago and 4 last month. This is the buying season along the coast. There is a 3.4 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.
Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Healdsburg at the end of April (84) was 22% ahead of the inventory in April 2016 (69) and was 17% ahead of the inventory last month (72). This continues to be a relatively high level of seasonal inventory for Healdsburg. There were 17 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 29% below the 24 sales in April 2016 and it is 89% ahead of the pace last month (9). The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 4.9 months.
Oakmont: There were 15 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of April. This is 29% lower than in April 2016 (21) and 25% ahead of the inventory last month (12). There were 17 new sales for the month. This is 13% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (15) and 11% below the pace of last month (19). There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The community clearly needs inventory. The median price for homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the mid-$500’s up to $675,000. The median price was $661,000 for the 13 closings last month.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of April (70) is slightly ahead of the inventory in April 2016 (68) and it is 43% ahead of the inventory last month (49). There were 54 new sales for the month. This is 30% below the number of new sales in April 2016 (73) and is 9% below the 53 sales last month. The Petaluma market has been volatile and currently has 1.4 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 54 homes that closed in April was $670,000. This is about the same as the median last April ($664,000).
Rohnert Park and Cotati: For the sixth consecutive month, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park-Cotati outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. The sales pace jumped up again in April. There were 48 new sales in April compared to 39 last month and 43 in April 2016. Inventory began the month at 17 homes and ended the month at 36 homes. There is just a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($450,000) of the 35 homes closed in April was 3% below the median price a year ago ($465,000). In April 2011, the median price was $220,000.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of April (208) was 14% below the inventory of a year ago (241) and was 16% ahead of the inventory last month (180). New sales in April (201) were 5% below the pace of last April (211) and they were 14% ahead of the pace last month (177). There is only a one months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 150 homes closed in April in Santa Rosa was $550,000 compared to $500,000 a year ago – a 10% increase. The median has ranged from $475,000 to $550,000 over the past twelve months.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April (39) was just about equal to the level of April 2016 (40) and it was also equal to the inventory last month (39). There were 29 new sales for the month of April. This is 26% ahead of the pace in April 2016 (23) and 32% ahead of the pace last month (22). There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (108) at the end of April in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) was 18% below the inventory in April 2016 (132) and it was 17% ahead of the inventory of last month (92). There were 50 new sales for the month. This is 32% ahead of the pace of sales in April 2016 (38) and it is about equal to the pace of last month (51). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 59% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above while 34% of the new sales (17) were priced at $1,000,000 or more. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of April started at $2,700,000. 17 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 16 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 27 homes available in this quartile in April compared to 31 a year ago. There is a 7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There were four new sales in the top quartile in April – we’ll see if that pace is maintained next month.
Windsor: Sales in Windsor in April (35) were the highest that they have been in the past 15 months. Sales jumped 150% from the pace in March (14). They were 25% ahead of the sales pace in April 2016 (28). The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of April (15) remains very low. It is 59% below the inventory in April 2016 (37) and it is about equal to the 17 homes last month. There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the homes closed in April in Windsor was just 20 days – the lowest in our Wine Country markets.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of April (313) is 11% below the inventory in April 2016 (350) and it is 16% higher than the inventory last month (270). New sales (144) were 12% ahead of the pace last year (129) and 21% ahead of the pace of last month (119). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently ranging between 65 (American Canyon) to 134 (Up Valley Napa) days depending on price and location. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 93 homes closed in April in Napa County ($655,000) was 4% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($630,000). The median has generally ranged between $580,000 and $660,000 over the past year. The current median price remains 3% below the peak median price for the County ($675,000) recorded in June 2006 so, as in Sonoma County and south through Marin into San Francisco and the Peninsula, most of the home equity lost in the recession (2007 to 2011) has been regained.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $1,900,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (81) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,900,000) in Napa County is 4% ahead for the period 5/1/16 to 4/30/17 compared to 5/1/15 to 4/30/16 (78 homes). There were 79 luxury homes in inventory at the end of April 2017 compared to 97 at the end of April 2016. There were 9 Luxury Home new sales last month resulting in a 8.8 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.2 months supply for the County as a whole.
Napa: There were 178 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of April in the City of Napa. This is 4% lower than the inventory a year ago (186) and it is 17% higher than the supply last month (152). New sales (102) were 16% ahead of the pace of April 2016 (88) and they were 23% ahead of the pace of last month (83). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 65 homes that closed in Napa in April was $675,000. This is 1.5% above the median price of the homes closed in April 2016 ($665,000). The median price is 4% above the peak median price in the City of Napa ($650,000) recorded in April 2006.
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of April (97) was 18.5% below the level of 119 in April 2016 and it was 16% ahead of the level last month (84). There were 21 new sales for the month compared to 19 a year ago and 13 last month. It appears some of the homes taken off the market over the holidays remain on the sidelines. There is now a 4.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 closings last month was 134 days. Approximately 60% of the Luxury Market (price in excess of $1,900,000) inventory in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (45 homes).