Wine Country Real Estate Trends in December 2018
Wine Country Market Value Shifts and Sales Trends for 2018
I’ve done a chart of Wine Country Market Value Shifts dating back to 1998. I’ve added the latest data for 2018 so if you’d like a copy, drop me an email. According to the Bay Area Real Estate Services MLS figures, the price of residential real estate across Wine Country (Sonoma and Napa Counties) increased by 7.5% in 2018. The average price of all closings in Sonoma County was $779,200 and the average in Napa County was $962,445. I’m expecting slower price appreciation in 2019, perhaps four to five percent. There were 6,006 closings of single-family homes and condominiums across Wine Country in 2018 compared to 6458 closings in 2017 and 6,572 closings in 2016. This is a 7% decrease in volume. There was an 8% decrease in volume in Sonoma County (4,711 in 2018 compared to 5,105 in 2017) while Napa Country was down 4% year over year at 1,295 units compared to 1,353 units in 2017. I expect the 2019 volume will again be steady or slightly down from the volume in 2018. The total sales dollar volume was nearly $5 billion dollars – $3.7 billion in Sonoma (same as last year) and $1.25 billion in Napa (slightly ahead of last year).
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for December 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 44 closings in December 2018 compared to 31 last month and 39 last December. For all of 2018, we closed 474 sales compared to 512 for 2017. In December, we closed homes with a total value of $32 million compared to $22 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in December was $727,272.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 40 pending sales with a value of $30 million dollars. We have 49 active listings with a value of $42 million dollars. Our average listing price is $857,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for December 2018:
Market Comparisons to December 2017
The wildfires across Wine Country occurred in early October of last year. A good number of homes were removed from the market in later October 2017 as folks tried to figure out the impact of the fires. Thus, the inventory of available homes was unseasonably low for the last three months of last year. Some of the percentages are quite high comparing this year to last and that is partly driven by the fires last year.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of December stands at 768. This is 89% ahead of the inventory in December 2017 (406) and it is down 25% from the inventory last month (1,018). This remains a relatively high inventory for recent years but not an unreasonably high number for historical purposes. New sales (285) in Sonoma County in December were slightly above the pace of December 2017 (277) and they were 11% below the pace last month (321). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 50 (Rohnert Park) to 135 (Cloverdale) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 72 days (the highest in the past twelve months). The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $615,000. This is a 5% decrease from the median price in December 2017 ($648,000). As we expected, the appreciation rate has settled down from the 12%
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,100,000). There has been a 10% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (640) from 1/1/18 to 12/31/18 compared to 581 closings in the period 1/1/17 to 12/31/17. The inventory of luxury homes (187) is 8% above the inventory in December 2017 (172 homes). The pace of new sales (33) in December this year is slightly below the pace of a year ago (34) and it is 20% below the pace last month (41). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 108 days this December compared to 109 days a year ago. This compares to 72 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in December. There is a 5.7 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.7 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (30) in Cloverdale at the end of December is 131% ahead of the inventory in December of 2017 (11). It is 19% below the inventory of last month (37). There were 7 new sales in Cloverdale in December. This compares to 11 sales in December 2017 and 11 new sales last month. There is a 4.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in December was 135 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There are 21 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 24% above the inventory (17) a year ago and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (22). There were 2 new sales in December compared to 7 a year ago and 4 last month. There is now a 10.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the four homes that closed in December was 112 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There are 63 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 47% above the inventory in December 2017 (43) and it is 25% below the inventory last month (84). New sales in December (14) were 27% ahead of the pace of sales in December 2017 (11) and they were 75% ahead of the sales pace last month (8). The months of available inventory is now 4.5 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in December was 111 days.
Oakmont: There are 35 homes available in Oakmont at the end of December. This is 250% ahead of the inventory in December 2017 (10) and it is 27% below the inventory last month (48). New sales (14) are 12.5% below the sales pace of a year ago (16) and are 17% ahead of the pace of last month (12). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $540,000 for the 12 homes that closed in December. This is the lowest median price in Oakmont in over a year. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 72 days.
Petaluma: The inventory in Petaluma at the end of December (53) is 179% ahead of the inventory in December 2017 (19) and it is 17% below the inventory last month (64). There were 21 new sales for the month. This is 19% below the 26 sales in December 2017 and it is 38% below the number of new sales last month (34). The Petaluma market currently has 2.5 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. Petaluma remains one of the tightest markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 30 homes that closed in December was $695,000. This is essentially equal to the median price last December ($691,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 53 days.
Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of December (44) is 340% ahead of the inventory in December 2017 (10) and it is 23% below the inventory last month (57). There were 20 new sales in Rohnert Park in December. This is 5% above the number of sales in December 2017 (19) and it is 9% below the sales pace last month (22). There is 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($582,000) of the 22 homes and condominiums that closed in December is 11% higher than the median price a year ago ($525,000). In December 2010, the median price was $210,000. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 50 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December (49) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 26% ahead of the level of December 2017 (39) and it is 18% below the inventory last month (60). There were 8 new sales for the month of December. This sales pace is 27% below the pace in December 2017 (11) and it is 47% below the pace last month (15). There is a 6 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $505,000 for the 10 homes that closed in December. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 76 days.
Santa Rosa: Thirty-eight percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of December (293) is 199% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (98) and it is 28% below the inventory last month (407). New sales in December (136) are 7% ahead of the pace of last December (127) and they are 9% below the pace last month (150). There is a 2.2 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 131 homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was $553,000 compared to $601,000 a year ago – an 8% decrease. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 65 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Sebastopol (39) is slightly below the level of December 2017 (40) and it is 32% below the inventory last month (57). There were 20 new sales for the month of December. This is 43% ahead of the pace in December 2017 (14) and it is equal to the pace last month (19). There is a 2.0 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 26 homes that closed in Sebastopol in December went from listing to pending in 109 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (77) at the end of December in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is slightly above the inventory last December (75) and it is 25% below the inventory of last month (103). There were 18 new sales for the month. This is 10% below the pace of sales in December 2017 (20) and it is 36% below the pace of last month (28). There is a 4.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. Fifty-four percent (42 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 22% of the new sales (4) in December were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of December starts at $3,000,000. 19 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 15 in the twelve months prior to that. There are 19 homes available in this quartile in December 2018 compared to 14 a year ago. There was one new sales in the top quartile in December creating a 19 months supply of inventory in this quartile based on the current sales pace. The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price of roughly $1,000 per square foot of building area.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of December equals 40 properties. This is 400% ahead of the inventory in December 2017 (8) and it is 25% below the 53 homes last month. There were 19 new sales for the month. This is 46% above the pace of sales in December 2017 (13) and it is essentially equal to the pace of last month (20). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 16 homes that closed in December in Windsor was 58 days. The median price ($651,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in December is 5% higher than the median price a year ago ($620,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of December (292) is 26% ahead of the inventory in December 2017 (331) and it is 20% below the inventory last month (364). New sales (63) are 27% below the pace of last year (86) and are 20% below the pace of last month (78). There is a 4.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 75 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 81 homes closed in December in Napa County ($692,000) was 2% higher than the median price of a year ago ($678,000). 40% of the inventory in Napa County (118 properties) are priced at $1,000,000 or above.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $1,600,000 in Napa County at this time (this is down from $1,900,000 over the past several months). The number of closings (142) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,600,000) in Napa County for the period 1/1/18 to 12/31/18 compared to 115 closings in the period 1/1/17 to 12/31/17 (a 23% increase). There were 74 luxury homes in inventory at the end of December 2018 compared to 81 at the end of December 2017. There were 7 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 16.2 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 4.6 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 25 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in American Canyon. This is 67% ahead of the inventory a year ago (15) and it is 4% below the supply last month (26). New sales (6) were 46% below the pace of December 2017 (11) and they were also 46% below the pace of last month (11). That’s the fewest number of sales for any month in American Canyon for over a year. There is a 4.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 67 days. The median price of the 11 homes that closed in American Canyon in December ($493,000) was essentially equal to the median price of a year ago ($490,000). The median price in December 2011 was $240,000.
Napa: Fifty-six percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There were 163 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in the City of Napa. This is a 35% ahead of the supply at the end of December 2017 (121) and it is 22% below the inventory at the end of last month (208). New sales (43) were 32% below the pace of December 2017 (63) and they were 19% below the pace of last month (53). There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 51 closings last month was 67 days. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in December was $675,000. This is 1.5% below the median price of the homes closed in December 2017 ($685,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of December (76) is roughly equal to the level of 73 in December 2017 and it is 22% below the level last month (98). There were 14 new sales in the month compared to 10 a year ago and 12 last month. There is now a 5.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 16 closings last month was 113 days. Approximately 47% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $1,600,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (35 homes). There were six luxury home (price in excess of $1,600,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and four new luxury home sales.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Angwin (8) is 43% below the level of December 2017 (14) and it is 20% below the inventory last month (10). There was just one new sale for the month of December compared to two last month and none in December of 2017. There is an 8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average asking price of the 8 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,397,000.