Wine Country Real Estate Trends in May 2019

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for May 2019

Consistent with the G (Growth) in our Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate PAIGE statement we are pleased to announce the re-opening of an office in the City of Napa.  We’re delighted to have leased the space at 3249 Browns Valley Road in the Browns Valley Shopping Center near the corner of Austin Way.  It’s a terrific location and we look forward to building our sales staff there.

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate |Wine Country Group enjoyed 48 closings in May 2019 compared to 38 last May and 32 last month. In May, we closed homes with a total value of $29.2 million compared to $24 million last year and $22.5 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in May was $607,941.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 53 pending sales with a value of $34 million dollars. We have 90 active listings with a value of $72 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $800,000.

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for May 2019

 The Wine Country (Sonoma and Napa Counties) residential real estate market appears to be off 11% in sales volume, 17% in dollar volume and off 7% in the average selling price of sold homes for the first five months of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018.  Part of this is likely attributable to our very wet and rainy Spring and part to an overall lull in the market.  We’ll see how the market performs in the coming months now that the weather conditions have improved.   Please see details below for each county.

 Sonoma County:  According to MLS data, year to date, there have been 3,645 residential property transactions in Sonoma County with a value of $2.5 billion dollars.  The average price of sold properties is $673,111.  This is 9.8% below the number of properties sold in the same period of 2018 (4,042), over one-half billion dollars lower in dollar volume ($3.0 billion) and the average price is 10% lower this year than last ($747,639).

The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of May stands at 1,120.  This is 39% ahead of the inventory in May 2018 (807) and it is 15% ahead of the inventory last month (974).  Surely the better weather in May had sellers bringing their homes on the market. New sales (560) in Sonoma County in May were 21.5% ahead of the pace of May 2018 (461) and they were 23% ahead of the pace last month (454).  There is a two months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 45 (Petaluma) to 100 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 53 days.  The median price of 461 homes closed in May in Sonoma County was $650,000.  This is equal to the median price in May 2018 ($650,000).

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,400,000).  There has been an 11% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (321) from 6/1/18 to 5/31/19 compared to 360 closings in the period 6/1/17 to 5/31/18.  The inventory of luxury homes (280) is 50% ahead of the inventory in May 2018 (187 homes). The pace of new sales (39) in May this year is 20% below the pace of a year ago (49) and it is 44% ahead of6/1/18 to 5/31/19 compared to 342 closings in the period 6/1/17 to 5/31/18 the pace last month (27).  The lower number of sales in this price range over the past year is partially due to the fires of late 2017 which created an extraordinary demand in earl 2018.  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 73 days this May compared to 75 days a year ago. This compares to 53 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in May. There is a 7.2 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a two months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (34) in Cloverdale at the end of May is 21% ahead of the inventory in May of 2018 (28).  It is 11% below the inventory of last month (38). There were 21 new sales in Cloverdale in May.  This compares to 13 sales in May 2018 and 17 new sales last month. There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 13 homes that closed in May was 60 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 29 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This is 45% ahead of the inventory (20) a year ago and it is the same as the inventory last month (29).  There were 6 new sales in May compared to 6 a year ago and 7 last month.  There is now a 4.8 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 7 homes that closed in May was 100 days.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 124 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is the highest inventory in Healdsburg in the past eight years.  It is 57% above the inventory in May 2018 (79) and it is 18% ahead of the inventory last month (105).  New sales in May (16) were 43% below the pace of sales in May 2018 (28) and they were 30% below the sales pace last month (23). The months of available inventory is now 7.8 months based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 23 homes that closed in May was 82 days.

Oakmont: There are 56 homes available in Oakmont at the end of May.  This is 155% ahead of the inventory in May 2018 (22) and it is 14% ahead of the inventory last month (49).  New sales (16) are 46% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (11) and are 16% below the pace of last month (19).  There is a 3.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $715,000 for the 15 homes that closed in May.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 74 days.

Petaluma:   The inventory in Petaluma at the end of May (96) is 37% ahead of the inventory in May 2018 (70) and it is 39% ahead of the inventory last month (69).  There were 64 new sales for the month. This is essentially equal to the 63 sales in May 2018 and it is 8.5% ahead of the 59 new sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 1.5 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 62 homes that closed in May was $700,000. This is 7.8% below the median price last May ($759,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 45 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of May (49) is 133% ahead of the inventory in May 2018 (21) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (52).   There were 51 new sales in Rohnert Park in May.  This is 87% above the 27 sales in May 2018 and it is 6% ahead of the 48 sales last month.  There is one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The median price ($570,000) of the 47 homes and condominiums that closed in May is 4% above the median price a year ago ($550,000). Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 46 days.

Russian River:  Obviously, the Russian River region will be affected by the Spring floods throughout the area.  The real estate market here will not be functioning in a stable way for months to come.

The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May (78) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 28% above the level of May 2018 (61) and it is 20% ahead of the inventory last month (65).  There were 32 new sales for the month of May.  This sales pace is 10% ahead of the pace in May 2018 (29) and it is129% ahead of the pace last month (14).  The dry weather may have brought the buyers out to the River.  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year.  The median was $494,000 for the 19 homes that closed in May.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 69 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-one percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of May (347) is 28% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (272) and it is 10% ahead of the inventory last month (315).  New sales in May (226) are 26% ahead of the pace of last May (179) and they are 24% ahead of the pace last month (183). There is a 1.5 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 185 homes closed in May in Santa Rosa was $589,000 compared to $610,000 a year ago – a 4% decrease.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in May was 56 days.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Sebastopol (72) is 16% ahead of the level of May 2018 (62) and it is 18% ahead of the inventory last month (61).  There were 38 new sales for the month of May.  This is the highest number of new sales in any month since July of 2014.  It is 65% ahead of the pace in May 2018 (23) and it is 73% ahead of the pace last month (22).  Again, the better weather may have brought out the buyers.  There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace.  The 23 homes that closed in Sebastopol in May went from listing to pending in 34 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (170) at the end of May in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 62% above the inventory last May (105) and it is 17% ahead of the inventory of last month (145).  It is the highest inventory in the Sonoma Valley since the end of the recession in 2011.  There were 49 new sales for the month. This is 6% below the 52 sales in May 2018 and it is 32% ahead of the 37 sales last month.  There is a 3.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales.  Sixty-nine percent (117 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 35% of the new sales (17) in May were priced at over $1,000,000.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of May starts at $3,500,000.  14 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 13 in the twelve months prior to that. There are 40 homes available in this quartile in May 2019 compared to 25 a year ago. There were no new sales in the top quartile in May and there have been only 3 sales in this quartile in the last seven months.  The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price of roughly $1,000 per square foot of building area.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of May equals 51 properties.  This is 19% ahead of the inventory in May 2018 (43) and it is 31% ahead of the 39 homes last month.  There were 34 new sales for the month. This is 55% above the pace of sales in May 2018 (22) and it is 26% ahead of the pace of last month (27).  There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 28 homes that closed in May in Windsor was 47 days. The median price ($699,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in May is slightly ahead of the median price a year ago ($685,000).

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 528 properties.  This is 8% ahead of the number of lots in May 2018 (487) and it is 8% ahead of the number of available lots last month (491).  There were 40 new lot sales in May.  This is 38% below the pace of sales in May 2018 (64) and it is 25% below the pace of lot sales last month (53).  There is a 13.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 48 lots closed in May was 158 days and the median price was $243,000 – 12% below the median price a year ago ($275,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of May is 94 homes.  This is the highest number of available mobile homes in Sonoma County for any month since October of 2012.  It is 47% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in May 2018 (64) and it is 21% above the number of available homes last month (78). There were 37 new mobile home sales in May.  This is 6% ahead of the pace of sales in May 2018 (35) and it is 12% ahead of the pace of sales last month (33).  There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 35 mobile homes closed in May was 72 days and the median price was $156,000.  This median price is 9% below the median price of $172,000 in May 2018.

Napa County:  Year to date, there have been 940 residential property transactions in Napa County with a value of $794 million dollars.  The average price of sold properties is $845,085.  This is 16% below the number of properties sold in the same period of 2018 (1,119), $113 million lower in dollar volume and the average price is 4.2% higher this year than last ($790,655).

The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of May (451) is 28% ahead of the inventory in May 2018 (352) and it is 17% ahead of the inventory last month (384).  This is the highest inventory in Napa County in the past seven years.  54% of the inventory in Napa County (242 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above. New sales (155) are 31% ahead of the pace of last year (118) and are 22% ahead of the 127 sales last month.  There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 58 days down from 72 days last May. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 126 homes closed in May in Napa County ($720,000) was 10% higher than the median price of a year ago ($675,000).

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,500,000 in Napa County at this time.  The number of closings (56) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,500,000) in Napa County for the period 6/1/18 to 5/31/19 compared to 52 closings in the period 6/1/17 to 5/31/18 (an 8% increase).  There were 112 luxury homes in inventory at the end of May 2019 compared to 83 at the end of May 2018.  There were 4 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 28 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.9 months supply for the County as a whole.

American Canyon:  There were 22 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in American Canyon. This is 10% ahead of the inventory a year ago (20) and it is essentially equal to the supply last month (21).  New sales (24) are 140% ahead of the pace of last year (10) and are 60% ahead of the 15 sales last month.  There is just a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 53 days. The median price of the 13 homes that closed in American Canyon in May ($540,000) was 14% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($474,000).

Napa:  Fifty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There were 239 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in the City of Napa. This is a 29% ahead of the supply at the end of May 2018 (185) and it is 15% ahead of the inventory at the end of last month (208). New sales (108) were 27% ahead of the pace of May 2018 (85) and they were 19% ahead of the pace of last month (91). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 92 closings last month was 53 days.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in May was $740,000. This is 6% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in May 2018 ($700,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of May (154) is 29% higher than the level of 119 in May 2018 and it is 25% above the level last month (123).  It is the highest level of inventory in Up Valley for the past six years.  There were15 new sales in the month compared to 17 a year ago and 17 last month.  The end of the rainy season may have added to the inventory in May.  There is now a 10.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 16 closings last month was 78 days.  Approximately 46% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,500,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (71 homes). There were three luxury home (price in excess of $2,500,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and one new luxury home sale.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Angwin was 14 homes. This is 45% below the level of May 2018 (20) and it is 21% below the inventory last month (14).  There were four new sales for the month of May.  These are the first new sales in Angwin since January. The average asking price of the 11 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,729,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of May is 50 homes.  This is 11% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in May 2018 (45) and it is equal to the number of available homes last month (50).  There were 17 new mobile home sales in May.  This is 6% below the pace of sales in May 2018 (18) and it is 89% ahead of the pace of sales last month (9).  There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 8 mobile homes closed in May was 132 days and the median price was $225,000.  This median price is 67% higher than the median price of $135,000 in May 2018.

Ukiah, Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Ukiah was 74 homes.  This is the highest inventory in Ukiah for the past five years. It is 35% above the level of May 2018 (55) and it is also 35% ahead of the inventory last month (55).  There were 14 new sales for the month of May.  This is 30% below the number of sales (23) in May 2018 and it is 16% below the sales last month (19).  There is a 4.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 21 homes that closed in the Ukiah in May was $360,000. This is 14% below the median price of the homes closed in May 2018 ($419,000).

Marin County:  Marin County is experiencing trends similar to Wine Country. The inventory (597 homes) is the highest it has been for any month in the last seven years and the appreciation rate on a year over year basis is flat.