Wine Country Real Estate Trends – November 2015
Wishing all readers of the Broker Blog a wonderful Holiday Season and Happy New Year. Looking forward to growth and prosperity in 2016.
Prices in the City of Napa reach Pre-recession High
The most interesting statistic across the Wine Country Markets in November was that the median price of the 85 homes that closed in November in the City of Napa was $646,000. This is less than 1% below the high median price of $650,000 reached in November of 2006. So, the market there has essentially recovered all of the value lost during the recession from 2007 through 2011. This is the first market in Wine Country that I have seen reach this threshold. We’ll see where the trends go from here.
Wine Country Group Results for November 2015:
The Wine Country Group had 51 closings in November 2015 compared to 61 a year ago and 56 last month. In November, we closed homes with a total value of $30.7 million compared to $36 million a year ago and $35.6 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in November was $601,611 compared to $590,104 a year ago and $635,955 last month. The Sonoma office led in November with 15 closings. While the Sebastopol office had 9 closings and the Napa office had 8 closings. The Sonoma office also led in dollar volume with $11.8 million in closings while the Napa office had $4.0 million and the Sebastopol office had $3.7 million.
The Wine Country Group opened 38 new escrows for the month compared to 69 a year ago and 76 last month. The Group had 5 new listings compared to 18 in November 2014 and 26 last month. We currently have 59 pending sales with a value of $42 million dollars. We have 61 active listings with a value of $65 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,066.000.
Wine Country Real Estate results for November 2015:
Sonoma County: The inventory of single-family homes and condominiums for sale in Sonoma County at the end of November fell, as expected, as the holiday season kicked in. It stood at 703 homes compared to 898 last month and 654 a year ago. This is a 7.5% increase on a year over year basis and a 22% decrease from last month. New sales (442) in November were 14% ahead of that of last November (387) and were 17% behind the pace of last month (531). There is just a 1.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the current sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County (Days on Market) is 62 days compared to 70 a year ago and 59 last month. This 55 to 60 day period to sell a home has stabilized for now. The median price of the 406 homes closed in November in Sonoma County was $506,000. This is a 10% increase over the median price in November 2014 ($460,000). The current median price is 14% below the peak median price for the County ($589,000) recorded in November 2005.
Looking to the south to Marin County for some hints to our market, listings fell and new sales rose in November in a similar manner to Sonoma County. Days on market there was 51 days in November and there is a 1.4 months supply of inventory. The median price of the homes sold in November was $985,000. It increased 4% on a year over year basis – a smaller increase than reflected in October and smaller than the increase reflected across Wine Country.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,200,000). There has been a 28% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (343) from 12/1/14 to 11/30/15 compared to 269 from 12/1/13 to 11/30/14. There were 174 luxury properties in inventory at the end of November compared to 219 last month and 149 a year ago. Days on Market for the 20 Luxury Homes that closed in November was 112 days compared to 135 days a year ago. There is a 6.4 months supply of Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace – this indicates a “balanced” market between buyers and sellers at this price point.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of November (29) was equal to the inventory a year ago and 12% below the inventory last month (33). There were 9 new home sales in November that compares to 7 a year ago and 11 last month. There is just a 3.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to 4 months last year. The Days on Market of the 7 homes that closed in November was 71 days compared to 148 days a year ago and 124 days last month.
Healdsburg Trends: The ten months of rising inventory in Healdsburg reversed itself in November. Inventory stood at 65 homes at the end of the month. This is 23% ahead of the inventory last November (53) and 28% below the inventory of last month (90). There were 21 new sales in November – up 62% from the 13 in November 2014 and roughly equal to the sales pace of last month (22). Sales have been in this 20-25 per month range for much of the year in Healdsburg. The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 3.1 months. The Days on Market for the 15 homes closed in November was 101 days compared to 104 days a year ago and 58 days last month.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (49) at the end of November in Petaluma was 23% below the inventory in November 2014 (64) and it was 36% below of the inventory of last month (76). There were 49 new sales in November – up 4% from the 47 in November 2014 and down 23% from the pace of last month (64). There is just a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 53 homes that closed in November was $560,000. This is 3% above the median last November ($545,000). The Days on Market for the closed sales for the month was 60 compared to 64 days in November of last year.
Rohnert Park and Cotati: Rohnert Park and Cotati remain the most intense market in Wine Country. There were 45 new sales in November and there were just 33 homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of the month. There is now a less than one months supply of inventory based on this activity. The 33 homes in inventory at the end of November was 14% ahead of the 29 homes in inventory at the end of November 2014, and the 45 new sales was 61% ahead of the 28 new sales in November a year ago. The Days on Market for the 36 homes that closed in Rohnert Park in November was 50 days compared to 52 days a year ago and 44 days last month. Not only is this market tight, it has the fastest sale to closing rate in Wine Country.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of November (223) was 3.5% below the inventory of a year ago (231) and was 20% below the inventory last month (277). New sales in November (178) were 8.5% ahead of the pace in November 2014 (164) and they were 23% behind the pace of last month (232). There is just a 1.3 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 187 homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $459,000 compared to $435,000 a year ago – a 5% increase. The Days on Market for the homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was 57 days compared to 61 days a year ago.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (45) in Sebastopol at the end of November was 67% ahead of last year (27) and was 15% below the inventory last month (53). There were 14 new sales for the month of November compared to 27 last month (-48%) and 23 a year ago (-39%). There is a 3.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market of the 18 closed homes in Sebastopol in November was 69 days compared to 72 days a year ago and 62 days last month.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (89) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of November was 24% ahead of the level of last November (72) and was 21% below the inventory last month (112). There were 42 new sales for the month. This is equal to the pace of sales in November 2014 (41) and slightly ahead of the pace of last month (39). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The Days on Market for the 32 closed sales in Sonoma in November was 67 days compared to 76 a year ago and 61 last month. 54% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above. The high-end market (top quartile) was active in the Sonoma Valley in the past month. There were six new sales of homes priced in excess of $2,400,000 compared to three a year ago and five last month. There are 23 homes in inventory with a listing price of $2,400,000 or more compared to 12 at this time last year.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (46) in Windsor at the end of November was 39% ahead of the inventory of 33 at the end of November 2014 and was 8% below the inventory of homes last month (50). New sales in November (28) were 27% ahead of the sales in November 2014 (22) and were 12.5% below the sales last month (32). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory in Windsor based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 20 sales that closed in November in Windsor was $520,000. This is 8% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($480,000). The Days on Market for the closed homes last month was 68 days compared to 56 a year ago and 57 last month.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County in November (349) was 4% ahead of the inventory in November 2014 (336) and was 17% below the inventory of last month (421). New sales totaled 117 homes and were 15% ahead of the pace last year (102) and 12% below the pace of last month (133). There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 112 homes closed in November was 91 days compared to 82 days a year ago and to 88 days last month. Homes take a bit longer to sell in Napa County as compared to Sonoma and Marin. The median price of homes closed in November in Napa County ($657,000) was 11% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($590,000). The current median price is just 3% below the peak median price for the County ($675,000) recorded in November 2006. We’ll see if that level is reached in the coming months.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,400,000 in Napa County at this time. 53 homes sold in this market segment in for the period from 12/1/14 to 11/30/15 compared to 44 homes for the period from 12/1/13 to 11/30/14. There were 91 luxury homes in inventory at the end of November 2015 compared to 60 at the end of November 2014. There is a 8.1 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 12 months supply last year in November.
Napa: There were 188 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in the City of Napa. This is 6% ahead of the inventory a year ago (178) and it is 13% below the supply last month (216). New sales (68) were 6% below the pace of November 2014 (72) and they were 31% below the pace of last month (98). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.5 months supply a year ago. The Days on Market for the 85 homes closed in November in the City of Napa was 78 days compared to 86 days in November 2014 and 75 days last month. The median price of the homes that closed in Napa in November was $646,000. This is 12% ahead of the median price in November 2014 ($575,000). The median price in November is less than 1% below the peak median price in the City of Napa ($650,000) recorded in November 2006. This market is the first I’ve seen in Wine Country to essentially reach the pre-recession high median price.
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (115) in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) was 8.5% ahead of the level of 106 in November 2014 and it was 21% below the level last month (146). There were 26 new sales for the month. This is 63% ahead of the 16 sales a year ago and 13% ahead of the 23 sales last month. There is a 4.4 months supply of inventory compared to 6.6 months a year ago. The Days on Market for the 18 closings in November was 144 days compared to 102 days in November 2014 and 133 days last month.
Closings: The following agents enjoyed closings for the period from November 1, 2015 to November 30, 2015:
In our Bodega Bay office: Paul and Barbara Cronick enjoyed a closing.
In our Healdsburg office: Elissa Morrash had two closings and Rose Macy and Gina Cleaver each had a closing.
In our Napa office: Matt Cole had his best month ever with three closings, Ana Jauregui and Freddie Diaz had two closings each, and Teresa Castrillo enjoyed a closing.
In our Petaluma office: Scott Murphy and Dian Quinn had two closings each and Paul Claeyssens and Anne Marie Eskilsson each had a closing.
In our Santa Rosa office: Seyed Ahmad, Sarah Carlson, Laurie Parris and Carlos Rivas of Mason McDuffie Commercial Real Estate each had a closing.
In our Sebastopol office: Liz Uribe, Geri McCauley, Mark Ciddio and Martha Saly enjoyed two closings each and Jeffrey Seligson, Sabrina Roncancio and Carolyn Towon each had a closing.
In our Sonoma office: Sheila Deignan enjoyed four closings; Patty Keiser and Tracy Reynes had two closings each and Mara Kahn, Diane Litchfield, Erin George and Tiffany Knef, Leo Merle, Erick Rothfeld and Diane Krause each had a closing.
And, in our St. Helena office: Linda Alioto and Liz Manfree enjoyed two closings each and Rianne Pasquariello enjoyed a closing.
Congratulations to all