Wine Country Real Estate Trends – October 2015
Wine Country Group Results for October 2015:
First, I want to send best wishes for a speedy comeback for Carlos Rivas of our Mason McDuffie Commercial Real Estate team. Carlos underwent open-heart surgery about two weeks ago. The surgery went well and he is on the mend!
The Wine Country Group had 56 closings in October 2015 compared to 66 a year ago and 46 last month. In October, we closed homes with a total value of $35.6 million compared to $40 million a year ago and $26.5 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in October was $635,955 compared to $603,754 a year ago and $576,042 last month. The Sonoma office led in October with 17 closings. While the Healdsburg office had 16 closings. The Sonoma office also led in dollar volume with $13.6 million in closings while the Healdsburg office had $9.8 million and the Sebastopol office had $7.6 million.
The Wine Country Group opened 76 new escrows for the month compared to 72 a year ago and 77 last month. The Group had 26 new listings compared to 25 in October 2014 and 28 last month. We currently have 80 pending sales with a value of $61 million dollars. We have 71 active listings with a value of $70 million dollars. Our average listing price is $988.000.
Wine Country Real Estate results for October 2015:
Sonoma County: The inventory of single-family homes and condominiums for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October fell, as expected, as the beginning of the seasonal holiday real estate trend. It stood at 898 homes compared to 960 last month and 851 a year ago. This is a 5.5% increase on a year over year basis. New sales (556) in October were 18% ahead of that of last October (470) and were 9% ahead of the pace of last month (512). There is just a 1.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the current sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County (Days on Market) is 59 days compared to 67 a year ago and 59 last month. This 55 to 60 day period to sell a home has stabilized for now. The median price of the 482 homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $503,000. This is an 9% increase over the median price in October 2014 ($460,000). The current median price is 15% below the peak median price for the County ($589,000) recorded in October 2005.
Looking to the south to Marin County for some hints to our market, listings fell and new sales rose in October. Listings were down 14% compared to September, but down 12% from October 2014. Sales were up 8% over September and were up 8% over last year. Days on market there was 47 days in October and there is a 1.5 months supply of inventory. The median price of the homes sold in October was over $1,000,000 – which I believe is an all time high for Marin County median price. It increased 19% on a year over year basis – so it appears that some higher priced inventory sold in October. It will be interesting to see what the November reports reflect.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,200,000). There has been a 33% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (346) from 11/1/14 to 10/31/15 compared to 261 from 11/1/13 to 10/31/14. There were 219 luxury properties in inventory at the end of October compared to 226 last month and 184 a year ago. Days on Market for the 30 Luxury Homes that closed in October was 121 days compared to 77 days a year ago. There is a 6.4 months supply of Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace – this indicates a “balanced” market between buyers and sellers at this price point.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of October (33) was about equal to the inventory a year ago (32) and 8% below the inventory last month (36). There were a year long high of 11 new home sales in October that compares to 4 a year ago and 6 last month. There is just a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to 8 months last year. The Days on Market of the 8 homes that closed in October was 135 days compared to 65 days a year ago and 158 days last month.
Healdsburg Trends: Bucking the decline in inventory in the County as a whole, the inventory of homes and condominiums available in Healdsburg rose in October for the tenth month in a row. Inventory stood at 90 homes at the end of the month. This is 34% ahead of the inventory last October (67) and 10% above the inventory of last month (82). There were 23 new sales in October – up 35% from the 17 in October 2014 and equal to the sales pace of last month (23). The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 3.9 months – trending towards a balanced market. The Days on Market for the 22 homes closed in October was 54 days compared to 106 days a year ago and 51 days last month.
Petaluma: The sales of homes in Petaluma in October rose 17% to 69 sales compared to 59 last month. It’s the second month in a row of increasing sales. The sales pace was also 41% ahead of the pace of sales in October 2014 (49). The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (76) at the end of October in Petaluma was 7% below the inventory in October 2014 (82) and it was 8% below of the inventory of last month (83). There is just a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 59 homes that closed in October was $585,000. This is 23% above the median last October ($475,000) but the median price has been in the mid five hundreds for most of the year. The Days on Market for the closed sales for the month was 62 compared to 54 days in October of last year.
Rohnert Park and Cotati: Sales pushed ahead again in Cotati-Rohnert Park in October. There were 54 new sales and there were 58 homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of the month. There is now a one months supply of inventory based on this activity – this is still the tightest market in all of Wine Country. The 56 homes in inventory at the end of October was 87% ahead of the 30 homes in inventory at the end of October 2014, and the 54 new sales was 17% ahead of the 46 new sales in October a year ago. The Days on Market for the 48 homes that closed in Rohnert Park in October was 44 days compared to 43 days a year ago and 49 days last month. Not only is this market tight, it has the fastest sale to closing rate in Wine Country.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of October (277) was 7% below the inventory of a year ago (298) and was 15% below the inventory last month (327). New sales climbed for the second month in a row. Sales in October (243) were 11.5% ahead of the pace of last month (218) and were 27% ahead of the pace in October 2014 (191). There is just a 1.1 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 202 homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $455,000 compared to $433,000 a year ago – a 5% increase. The Days on Market for the homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was 58 days compared to 59 days a year ago.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (53) in Sebastopol at the end of October was 36% ahead of last year (39) and was equal to the inventory last month (52). There were 27 new sales for the month of October compared to 21 last month (+29%%) and 27 a year ago. There is a two months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market of the 22 closed homes in Sebastopol in October was 64 days compared to 56 days a year ago and 101 days last month.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (112) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of October was 9% ahead of the level of last October (103) and was 9% below the inventory last month (123). There were 40 new sales for the month. This is 29% below the pace of sales in October 2014 (58) and 22% below the pace of last month (51). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The Days on Market for the 48 closed sales in Sonoma in October was 67 days compared to 81 a year ago and 57 last month. 56% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above. The high-end market (top quartile) was active in the Sonoma Valley in the past month. There were five new sales of homes priced in excess of $2,600,000 compared to one a year ago and one last month. There are 27 homes in inventory with a listing price of $2,600,000 or more.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (50) in Windsor at the end of October was 16% ahead of the inventory of 43 at the end of October 2014 and was 12% below the inventory of homes last month (57). New sales in October (31) were 48% ahead of the sales in October 2014 (21) and were essentially equal to the sales last month (29). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory in Windsor based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 27 sales that closed in October in Windsor was $530,000. This is 9% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($485,000). The Days on Market for the closed homes last month was 55 days compared to 75 a year ago and 49 last month.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County in October (421) was 3% ahead of the inventory in October 2014 (408) and was slightly ahead of the inventory last month (416). New sales jumped back up after falling for two months in a row. They totaled 145 homes and were 32% ahead of the pace last year (110) and 67% ahead of the pace of last month (87). This is a nice rebound in Napa County sales activity. There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 77 homes closed in October was 89 days compared to 88 days a year ago and to 71 days last month. The median price of homes closed in October in Napa County ($569,000) was 9% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($521,000). The current median price is 16% below the peak median price for the County ($675,000) recorded in October 2006.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,500,000 in Napa County at this time. Thirty-nine homes sold in this market segment in both of the periods from 11/1/14 to 10/31/15 and 11/1/13 to 10/31/14. There were 102 luxury homes in inventory at the end of October 2015 compared to 82 at the end of October 2014. There is a 17 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 27 months supply last year in October.
Napa: There were 216 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in the City of Napa. This is 3.1% below the inventory a year ago (223) and it is 9% below the supply last month (232). New sales (108) jumped significantly from September. They were 86% ahead of the pace of last month (58) and they were 56.5% ahead of the pace of October 2014 (69). There is a two months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 3.2 months supply a year ago. The Days on Market for the 54 homes closed in October in the City of Napa was 76 days compared to 83 days in October 2014 and 66 days last month. The median price of the homes that closed in Napa in October was $575,000. This is 14% ahead of the median price in October 2014 ($506,000). The median price in October is 11.5% below the peak median price in the City of Napa ($650,000) recorded in October 2006.
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (146) in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) was 13% ahead of the level of 129 in October 2014 and it was 7% ahead of the level last month (137). There were 23 new sales for the month. This is 4% below the 24 sales a year ago and 53% ahead of the 15 sales last month. There is a 6.3 months supply of inventory compared to 5.4 months a year ago. The Days on Market for the 14 closings in October was 148 days compared to 123 days in October 2014 and 103 days last month.
Closings: The following agents enjoyed closings for the period from October 1, 2015 to October 31, 2015:
In our Healdsburg office: Linda Farwell enjoyed four closings; Gina Cleaver had three closings; Debbie Adler, Bernie Curley and Michael Downes had two closings each and Dee Grohmann, Perry Hardin, Diane Harris, Debby Hendershot and Tom Lawrence each had a closing.
In our Napa office: Milanda Capp, Ana Jauregui, Freddie Diaz, Matt Cole and Linda Van Pelt each enjoyed a closing.
In our Petaluma office: JoAnn Claeyssens had a closing.
In our Sebastopol office: Liz Uribe enjoyed three closings and Sandy Matthews, Bette Meritt, Randy Coffman, Bill Cole, Harvey Charnofsky, Ann Conger, Randy Knight, Geri McCauley and Martha Saly each had a closing.
In our Sonoma office: Sheila Deignan enjoyed four closings; Erin George and Mari Johnson had three closings each; Tiffany Knef and Tracy Reynes had two closings each and Mara Kahn, Diane Litchfield, Herb Heil, Shanis Nelson and Isaac Raboy of Mason McDuffie Commercial Real Estate each had a closing.
And, in our St. Helena office: Rianne Pasquariello enjoyed four closings and Liz Manfree and David Barker each enjoyed a closing.
Congratulations to all