Wine Country Real Estate Trends in September 2017
Tragic fires: As I’m writing this (Monday morning – 10/9/17), fires are raging throughout our market area. Some of our staff have been evacuated overnight and do not yet know if their homes are still there. Some of our clients and friends have lost their homes. We have closed our offices for today.
Our thoughts and prayers go out to all affected by these events. Once things settle down, we will look into how we can assist those in need.
A Week Later – 10-16-17:
The Effects of the Recent Fires on Our Real Estate Markets: It is far too early to know specifically how the recent tragic fires across our Wine Country markets will affect real estate here. We do have experience in the Houston and South Florida areas recently hit by hurricanes and a few general observations can be made:
- The market activity will pause to absorb the shock of what has happened. As of this writing, I’m told that the South Florida market has basically normalized – so that didn’t take very long.
- Some escrows and listings will cancel – just taken off the market. Property insurers, title insurers and lenders will all want to take a careful look at the properties underlying their commitments – so things will slow down for a bit.
- Inventory might shift. Perhaps some inventory that has been on the market for some time will become rental stock for those needing to rebuild. Vacation rentals may become long-term rentals as fewer folks will come up for vacations here.
- It will take a couple of “seasons” for the physical scars of the fires to heal and it may take that long, or longer, for the mental scars to heal.
- Events like these often foster new and better building codes and disaster preparation practices. Hopefully, the building departments in the affected areas will create stream-lined processing for permits to rebuild.
- We won’t know until the end of the month, and longer, how the immediate market will compare to prior year and month activities. It will be interesting to observe.
This being said, our agent on our “up-desk” just got a young couple from Seattle walking in totally nonplussed by what’s going on and interested in buying property here. Go figure.
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for September 2017
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group had 42 closings in September 2017 compared to 65 last month. In September, we closed homes with a total value of $35 million compared to $43 last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in September was $835,429.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 80 pending sales with a value of $62 million dollars. We have 66 active listings with a value of $82 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,242,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Results for September 2017:
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of September continued to increased slightly. The inventory stands at 899 and is up 6% from the inventory last month (849). It is about equal to the inventory in September 2016 (887). We often get a little bump in inventory in September as families are done with the summer holidays and children are back in school. New sales (491) in September were 4% lower than the pace of last month (511) and were 8% ahead of the pace of September 2016 (454). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 36 (Coastal Sonoma) to 82 (Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 58 days. It is unusual to see the Days on Market so low in the Coastal Sonoma market. Last month it was 177 days and this month it is 36. The median price of homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $585,000. This is a 3% increase over the median price in September 2016 ($570,000).
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,500,000). There has been a 7% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (215) from 10/1/16 to 9/30/17 compared to 201 from 10/1/15 to 9/30/16. The pace of new sales (25) in September this year was 14% higher than the pace of a year ago (23). There are 228 luxury properties in inventory at the end of September compared to 219 last month and 200 a year ago. The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 128 days this September compared to 110 days a year ago. This compares to 58 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in September. There is a 7.5 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.8 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (34) in Cloverdale at the end of September is 42% ahead of the 24 homes in inventory in September last year and it is 31% ahead of the 26 homes last month. This is the highest inventory in Cloverdale in the past two years. There were 9 new sales in Cloverdale in September. This compares to 17 sales in September 2016 and 15 new sales last month. There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of September (30) is 23% below the inventory a year ago (39) and it is equal to the inventory last month (29). There were 10 new home sales for the month of September compared to 5 a year ago and 10 last month. This is the highest number of sales in any month on the Coast since October of 2015. There is a 3 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 95 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is about equal to the inventory in September 2016 (94) and it is also about equal to the inventory last month (97). There were 26 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 24% ahead of the number of sales in September 2016 (21) and it is 53% ahead of the pace last month (17). The months of available inventory is 3.7 months based on the current sales pace.
Oakmont: There were 12 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of September. This is 50% lower than in September 2016 (24) and it is slightly lower than the inventory last month (13). There were 15 new sales for the month. This is equal to the sales pace of a year ago and slightly below the pace of last month (16). There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price for homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $750,000. The median price was $704.000 for the 16 homes closed in September – an increase of 4% over the price of $675,000 in September 2016.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of September (68) is 19% below the inventory in September 2016 (84) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (65). There were 51 new sales for the month. This is 16% ahead of the number of new sales in September 2016 (44) and is 12% below the 58 sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 1.3 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 57 homes that closed in September was $665,000. This is 5% below of the median last September ($700,000).
Rohnert Park: For almost a year now, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. There were 42 new sales in September compared to 43 last month and 31 in September 2016. The inventory began the month at 28 homes and ended the month at 19 homes. There is just a half months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($500,000) of the 48 homes closed in September was 12% higher than the median price a year ago ($447,000). In September 2010, the median price was $192,000.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September (63) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 46% ahead of the level of September 2016 (43) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (67). There were 28 new sales for the month of September. This is 17% ahead of the pace in September 2016 (24) and 17% lower than the pace last month (34). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price ($460,000) of the homes closed in September was 12% higher than the median price a year ago ($410,000). In September 2011, the median price was $230,000.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of September (275) is 10% below the inventory of a year ago (306) and it is 10% ahead of the inventory last month (249). New sales in September (206) were 11% ahead of the pace of last September (186) and they were about equal to the pace last month (201). There is a 1.3 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 191 homes closed in September in Santa Rosa was $554,000 compared to $495,000 a year ago – an 12% increase. The median has ranged from $495,000 to $565,000 over the past twelve months.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September (58) in Sebastopol is 14 % ahead of the level of September 2016 (51) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (56). There were 25 new sales for the month of September. This is about equal to the pace in September 2016 (24) and 67% ahead of the pace last month (15). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 18 homes that closed in Sebastopol in September went from listing to pending in 70 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (158) at the end of September in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 33% ahead of the inventory in September 2016 (124) and it is 30% ahead of the inventory of last month (122). There were 42 new sales for the month. This is 12.5% below the pace of sales in September 2016 (48) and it is 7% below the pace of last month (45). There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 64% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of September started at $3,000,000 last month. Nine homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 13 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 38 homes available in this quartile in September compared to 19 a year ago. Eight homes with prices in excess of $3,000,000 were added to the inventory in September. There were no new sales in the top quartile in September. Based on no sales, there is a three-year supply of inventory in the top quartile.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of September (42) is 20% ahead of the inventory in September 2016 (35) and it is slightly ahead of the 41 homes last month. There were 25 new sales for the month. This is 19% below the pace of sales in September 2016 (31) and it is 39% below the pace of last month (41). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the homes closed in September in Windsor was 70 days. The median price ($630,000) of the 36 homes closed in September was 8% higher than the median price a year ago ($581,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of September (367) is 8.5% below the inventory in September 2016 (401) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (373). New sales (129) were about equal to the pace of last year (130) and 8% below the pace of last month (140). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – trending towards a balanced market. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 69 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 116 homes closed in September in Napa County ($620,000) was slightly below the median price of a year ago ($625,000). The median has generally ranged between $580,000 and $660,000 over the past year.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,300,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (61) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is 14% lower for the period 10/1/16 to 9/30/17 compared to 10/1/15 to 9/30/16 (71 homes). There were 91 luxury homes in inventory at the end of September 2017 compared to 88 at the end of September 2016. There were 4 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 22.8 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.8 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 23 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in the American Canyon. This is slightly ahead of the inventory a year ago (23) and it is 14% lower than the supply last month (27). New sales (14) were essentially equal to the pace of September 2016 (13) and they were 33% lower than the pace of last month (27). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 10 homes that closed in American Canyon in September was $562,000. This is 29% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in September 2016 ($435,000) but it is more in line with the median price over the past 12 months that has ranged from the low $400,000s to the mid $500,000s.
Napa: There were 194 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in the City of Napa. This is 12% lower than the inventory a year ago (221) and it is slightly lower than the supply last month (199). New sales (90) were equal to the pace of September 2016 and they were slightly lower than the pace of last month (92). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 76 homes that closed in Napa in September was $643,000. This is essentially equal to the median price of the homes closed in September 2016 ($642,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of September (125) is 4% below the level of 130 in September 2016 and it is 4% above the level last month (120). There were 21 new sales for the month compared to 22 a year ago and 23 last month. There is now a six months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month was 86 days. Approximately 63% of the Luxury Market (price in excess of $2,300,000) inventory in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (57 homes). Two of the four luxury home sales in Napa County last month were in the Up Valley market.
A quote as relates to our recent fires:
“And once the storm is over, you won’t remember how you made it through, how you managed to survive. And you may not even be sure, whether the storm is really over. But one thing is certain. When you come out of the storm, you won’t be the same person who walked in. That’s what this storm is all about”.
HARUKI MURAKAMI