Wine Country Real Estate Trends in December 2019
Wine Country Market Value Shifts and Sales Trends for 2019
I’ve done a chart of Wine Country Market Value Shifts dating back to 1998. I’ve added the latest data for 2019 so if you’d like a copy, drop me an email. According to the Bay Area Real Estate Services MLS figures, the average price of residential real estate sales across Wine Country (Sonoma, Napa and Mendocino Counties) decreased by 4.31% in 2019. The average price of all closings in Sonoma County was $744,663, the average in Napa County was $921,092 and the average in Mendocino County was $484,395. I’m expecting a relatively flat market in 2020, even or slightly positive – but not negative. It will vary from market to market and in different price ranges.
This is the first time that average prices of Wine Country residential properties have declined in the past seven years. About 1.2% of the 4.31% decline in average prices can be attributed to a decreased number of sales in the luxury market (top quartile) in Sonoma and Napa Counties on a year over year basis.
There were 6,617 closings of single-family homes and condominiums across Wine Country in 2019 compared to 6,655 closings in 2018. This is less than a 1% decrease in volume. There was a negligible decrease in volume (less than 1%) in Sonoma County (4,709 in 2019 compared to 4,723 in 2018) while Napa Country was down 2.8% year over year at 1,265 units compared to 1,301 units in 2018 and Mendocino County was up 2% in volume – 643 sales compared to 631 in 2018. I expect the 2020 volume will again be steady or slightly down from the volume in 2019. Low mortgage interest rates will serve to buoy the markets. The total sales dollar volume was nearly $5 billion dollars – $3.5 billion in Sonoma County, $1.2 billion in Napa County and $311 million in Mendocino County.
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for December 2019
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 49 closings in December 2019 compared to 44 last December and 46 last month. In December, we closed homes with a total value of $24.4 million compared to $32 million last year and $24.6 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in December was $499,000. Last December our average selling price was $727,272.
For all of 2019, we closed 509 sales compared to 474 for 2018 – a 7% increase in sales volume. In 2019, we sold homes with a value of nearly $300 million compared to $305 million a year ago.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 29 pending sales with a value of $25 million dollars. We have 77 active listings with a value of $67 million dollars. Our average listing price is $870,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for December 2019
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of December stands at 700. This is 9% below the inventory in December 2018 (768) and it is 29% below the inventory last month (985). This is an expected seasonal decline. New sales (281) in Sonoma County in December were 5% ahead of the pace of December 2018 (268) and they were 13% below the pace last month (322). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 53 (Windsor) to 137 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 73 days. The median price of the 336 homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $610,000. This is slightly ahead of the median price in December 2018 ($605,000). Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at roughly 94.5% of original list price.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,300,000). There has been a 18% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (363) from 1/1/19 to 12/31/19 compared to 442 closings in the period 1/1/18 to 12/31/18. The inventory of luxury homes (168) is 14% ahead of the inventory in December 2018 (147 homes). The pace of new sales (17) in December this year is 21% ahead of the pace of a year ago (14) and it is 29% below the pace last month (24). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 121 days this December compared to 110 days a year ago. This compares to 73 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in December. There is a 9.9 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.5 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (23) in Cloverdale at the end of December is 23% below the inventory in December 2018 (30). It is 26% below the inventory of last month (31). There were 4 new sales in Cloverdale in December. This compares to 7 sales in December 2018 and 7 new sales last month. There is a 5.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 8 homes that closed in December was 107 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There are 21 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This compares to 21 homes in inventory in December 2018 and 24 homes last month. There were 2 new sales in December compared to 2 a year ago and 5 last month. There is now a 10.5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in December was 137 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There are 67 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 6% above the inventory in December 2018 (63) and it is 26% below the inventory last month (91). New sales in December (11) were equal to the pace of sales in December 2018 and they were 21% below the sales pace last month (14). The months of available inventory is now 6.1 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in December was 90 days.
Oakmont: There are 40 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of December. This is 14% above the inventory in December 2018 (35) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (46). New sales (8) are 39% below the sales pace of a year ago (13) and 27% below the pace of last month (11). There is a 5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $593,000 for the 10 homes that closed in December. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 75 days.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of December (42) is 21% below the inventory in December 2018 (53) and it is 44% below the inventory last month (75). There were 36 new sales for the month. This is 80% ahead of the 20 sales in December 2018 and it is 16% below the 43 new sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 1.2 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. This is one of the lowest months of inventory for any of our markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 51 homes that closed in December was $715,000. This is 4% ahead of the median price last December ($690,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 65 days.
Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of December (35) is 21% below the inventory in December 2018 (44) and it is 31% below the inventory last month (51). There were 22 new sales in Rohnert Park in December. This is 16% ahead of the 19 sales in December 2018 and it is 31% below the sales last month (32). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($577,000) of the 37 homes and condominiums that closed in December is slightly below the median price a year ago ($582,000). Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 66 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (39) is 20% below the level of December 2018 (49) and it is 44% below the inventory last month (69). There were 14 new sales for the month of December. This is 100% ahead of the pace in December 2018 (7) and it is 18% below the pace last month (17). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $440,000 for the 17 homes that closed in December. The homes that closed in the Russian River in December went from listing to pending in 87 days.
Santa Rosa: Thirty-nine percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of December (271) is 7.5% below the inventory of a year ago (293) and it is 22% below the inventory last month (348). New sales in December (131) are equal to the pace of last December and they are 5% below the pace last month (138). There is a 2.1 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 143 homes closed in December in Santa Rosa was $589,000 compared to $545,000 a year ago – an 8% increase. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in December was 69 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Sebastopol (45) is 15% above the level of December 2018 (39) and it is 18% below the inventory last month (55). There were just 7 new sales for the month of December. This is 59% behind the pace in December 2018 (17) and it is 50% below the pace last month (14). There is a 6.4 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 13 homes that closed in Sebastopol in December went from listing to pending in 102 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (77) at the end of December in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is equal to the inventory last December and it is 42% below the inventory of last month (133). There were 23 new sales for the month. This is 28% ahead of the 18 sales in December 2018 and it is equal to the 23 sales last month. There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The average Days on Market for the 23 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in December is 69 days. Fifty-one percent (39 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 30% of the new sales (7) in December were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of December starts at $1,900,000. This is down from $2,900,000 in October – so a lot of expensive homes were taken off of the market in November and December (usually for the Holiday Season). Forty-five homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 54 in the twelve months prior to that. There are 19 homes available in this quartile in December 2019 compared to 31 a year ago and 43 last month. There were 3 new sales in the top quartile in December. There is now an 6.3 months supply of inventory in this segment of the market based on the current sales pace. The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price ranging from $750 to $1,000 per square foot of building area.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of December equals 30 properties. This is 25% below the inventory in December 2018 (40) and it is 23% below the 39 homes last month. There were 15 new sales for the month. This is slightly below the pace of sales in December 2018 (17) and it is also just below the pace of last month (16). There is a 2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 19 homes that closed in December in Windsor was 53 days. The median price ($660,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in December is slightly above the median price a year ago ($651,000).
Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of December is 421 properties. This is 12% below the number of lots in December 2018 (478) and it is also 12% below the number of available lots last month (480). There were 16 new lot sales in December. This is 39% below the pace of sales in December 2018 (26) and it is 20% below the pace of lot sales last month (20). The sales of lots continued to have the brakes on in December! There is a 26 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 22 lots closed in December was 150 days and the median price was $235,000 – 20% below the median price a year ago ($283,000).
Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of December is 90 homes. This is 13% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in December 2018 (80) and it is 5% below the number of available homes last month (95). There were 19 new mobile home sales in December. This is 27% below the pace of sales in December 2018 (26) and it is 47% below the pace of sales last month (36). There is a 4.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 2.6 months supply last month. The average days on market of the 32 mobile homes closed in December was 100 days and the median price was $110,000. This median price is 40% below the median price of $183,000 in December 2018. This is the lowest median price for mobile home sales for any month in the entire year.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of December (282) is 3% below the inventory in December 2018 (292) and it is 29% below the inventory last month (395). This is consistent with the seasonal trend that typically sees inventory come down through January or February of this year. Fifty percent of the inventory in Napa County (141 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above. New sales (67) are 10% ahead of the pace of last year (61) and are 22% below the 86 sales last month. There is a 4.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 91 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 96 homes closed in December in Napa County ($703,000) is 1.5% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($692,000). Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 92% of original list price.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,500,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (48) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,500,000) in Napa County for the period 1/1/19 to 12/31/19 compared to 59 closings in the period 1/1/18 to 12/31/18. This is a decrease of 19%. There are 73 luxury homes in inventory at the end of December 2019 compared to 45 at the end of December 2018. There was just one new Luxury Home sale last month compared to 6 in November. This results in an unrealistic 73 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 4.2 months supply for the County as a whole. This is sure to come down in the next several months. Days on market for the 3 luxury homes sales in December was 101 days. Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 87% of original list price.
American Canyon: There are 11 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in American Canyon. This is 56% below the inventory a year ago (25) and it is 27% below the supply last month (15). New sales (9) are 50% above the pace of last year (6) and essentially equal to the 8 sales last month. There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 65 days. The median price of the 7 homes that closed in American Canyon in December ($556,000) was 12.5% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($494,000). The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $250 to $300 range. It remains a tight market in American Canyon.
Napa: Fifty-one percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There are 144 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of December in the City of Napa. This is 12% below the supply at the end of December 2018 (163) and it is 32% below the inventory at the end of last month (211). New sales (52) were 27% ahead of the pace of December 2018 (41) and they were 7% below the pace of last month (56). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 68 closings last month was 88 days compared to 66 days in December 2018. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in December was $703,000. This is 6% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in December 2018 ($662,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of December (92) is 21% higher than the level of 76 in December 2018 and it is 29% below the level last month (130). There were just 6 new sales in the month compared to 13 a year ago and 17 last month. There is now a 15.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 16 closings last month was 89 days. Properties generally take longer to sell in the Up Valley than in the rest of Napa County. Approximately 60% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,500,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (44 homes). There was one luxury home (price in excess of $2,500,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and one new luxury home sale.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Angwin is 7 homes. This compares to 8 homes in December 2018 and 9 homes last month. There were no new sales in the month of December compared to one a year ago and one last month. The average asking price of the 7 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,207,000.
Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of December is 33 homes. This is essentially equal to the number of mobile homes available in December 2018 (35) and it is 25% below the number of available homes last month (44). There were 9 new mobile home sales in December. This is 50% ahead of the pace of sales in December 2018 (6) and also 50% ahead of the pace of sales last month (6). There is a 3.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 8 mobile homes closed in December was 148 days and the median price was $155,000. This is essentially equal to the median price of $156,000 in December 2018.
Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of December stands at 247. This is 29% below the inventory in December 2018 (349) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (291). New sales (44) in Mendocino County in December were 13% ahead of the pace of December 2018 (39) and they were 10% ahead of the pace last month (40). There is a 5.6 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace. The average Days on Market for homes sold in Mendocino County in December is 102 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 47 homes closed in December in Mendocino County was $449,000. This is 7% ahead of the median price in December 2018 ($421,000).
Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Ukiah is 39 homes. This is the lowest inventory in Ukiah in the past 18 months. It is 40% below the level of December 2018 (65) and it is 9% below the inventory last month (43). There were 11 new sales for the month of December. This is 10% above the number of sales in December 2018 (10) and it is 21% below the sales last month (14). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 16 closings last month was 73 days. The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from 360,000 to $480,000. The median price was $403,000 for the homes that closed in December.
Hopland and Talmage: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Hopland and Talmage is 12 homes. This is just below the level of December 2018 (13) and it is also just below the inventory last month (13). There was one new sale for the month of December. This compares to 2 sales in December 2018 and one sale last month. There is a 12 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the one closing last month was 39 days. The median price of the homes sold in Hopland/Talmage in the past year has ranged from 250,000 to $800,000. The price was $505,000 for the home that closed in December.
Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 12 homes. This is 40% below the level of December 2018 (20) and it is 25% below the inventory last month (16). There were no new sales for the month of December. This compares to 5 sales in December 2018 and 4 sales last month. There is a 12 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the seven closings last month was 100 days. The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $550,000. The median price was $495,000 for the homes that closed in December.
Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (198 homes) is 18% below the 241 homes in December 2018 and it is 42% below the 340 homes in inventory last month. New sales (102) were equal to the number last December and down 42% from last month (175). This creates a 1.9 months supply. The median price of the homes sold in Marin County in December was $1,100,000. This is the same as it was a year ago.