Wine Country Real Estate Trends in April 2018

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for April 2018

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 52 closings in April 2018 compared to 33 last month and 29 last April. In April, we closed homes with a total value of $29 million compared to $23.1million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in April was $560,284.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 50 pending sales with a value of $44 million dollars. We have 67 active listings with a value of $84 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,254,000.

 Wine Country Real Estate Trends for April 2018:

Lot Listings After the Fires: Over 5,000 structures burned in Sonoma and Napa Counties in the October, 2017 fires. We’re continuing to see lots coming on the market.   At the end of April, there were 441 vacant lots on the market – the vast majority being from the fires. This is an increase of 56% from the inventory in April 2017 (284). There were 85 new sales in April 2018. This is a 254% increase from the 24 new sales in April 2017. There is a 5.2 months supply of inventory based on this sales pace. 88 lots closed in April with a median sales price of $250,000, down from $270,000 last month.

We expect that many more fire damaged lots will continue to come on the market in the coming months and it will be interesting to track the values as properties begin to close escrow. For now, we are estimating that these lots are being offered at 60% of what might have been their value before the fires. The complications of clearing, permitting and building on these sites remain high.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of April stands at 723. This is 3% ahead of the inventory in April 2017 (704) and it is up 25% from the inventory last month (577). Having higher inventory on a year over year basis is counter trend to most counties in California. New sales (467) in April were 3% ahead of the pace of April 2017 (455) and they were 11% ahead of last month (422). There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 36 (Petaluma) to 77 (Sebastopol) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 48 days. This remains a low “Days on Market figure” for the County. The median price of homes closed in April in Sonoma County was $651,000.  This is a 10.5% increase over the median price in April 2017 ($589,000). We expect that the loss of homes in the fires will continue to put upwards pressure on prices in most locations throughout the County over the next three of four months, and then in may become less of an impact.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,400,000). There has been a 34% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (342) from 5/1/17 to 4/30/18 compared to 255 from 5/1/16 to 4/30/17. The inventory of luxury homes (187) is 5% below the inventory in April 2017 (197 homes). The pace of new sales (33) in April this year was 27% ahead of the pace of a year ago (26) and was 6% below the pace last month (35). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 64 days this April compared to 65 days a year ago. This compares to 48 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in April. There is a 5.7 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.5 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Again, the purchase of replacement homes by those who lost homes in the fires is contributing to this strong activity in the top quartile.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (19) in Cloverdale at the end of April is 21% below the 24 homes in inventory in April last year and it is 12% ahead of the 17 homes last month. There were 16 new sales in Cloverdale in April. This compares to 11 sales in April 2017 and 15 new sales last month. There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 14 homes that closed in April was 77 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  Inventory jumped up to 22 homes available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 19% below the inventory (27) a year ago and it is 69% above the inventory last month (13). New home sales also jumped up in April. There were 8 new sales compared to 7 a year ago and just one last month. There is now a 2.8 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace compared to a 13 months supply last month. The Days on Market for the 2 homes that closed in April was 38 days.

Healdsburg Trends:  Inventory increased by 58% in Healdsburg compared to March. There were 75 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 11% below the inventory in April 2017 (84) but well ahead of the inventory last month (49). There were 15 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is equal to the number of sales in April 2017 (9) and it is slightly below the pace last month. The months of available inventory is 5 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 17 homes that closed in April was 50 days.

Oakmont:  New sales exceeded the inventory in Oakmont in April. There were 23 homes in inventory at the end of April. This is 53% ahead of the inventory in April 2017 (15) and it is 10% ahead of the inventory last month (21). New sales (28) in Oakmont may be a monthly record. Sales were 75% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (16) and 33% ahead of the pace of last month (21). There is just a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $670,000 for the 14 homes that closed in April. The Days on Market for the 14 homes that closed in April was 38 days.

Petaluma:  Sales continued to be strong in April in Petaluma. There were 64 new sales for the month. This is 23% ahead of the 48 sales in April 2017 and it is 3% ahead of the number of new sales last month (62). The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of April (59) is 16% below the inventory in April 2017 (70) and it is 23% ahead of the inventory last month (48). The Petaluma market currently has 0.9 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace making it the tightest market in Wine Country. The median price of the 55 homes that closed in April was $690,000. This is 3% ahead of the median price last April ($671,000) and it is well below the record high median price of $795,000 last month. The Days on Market for the 55 homes that closed in April was 36 days.

Rohnert Park:  For the past year and a half, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park have outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. There were 38 new sales in April compared to 21 last month and 35 in April 2017. The inventory began the month at 21 homes and ended the month at 18 homes. There is a one-half month’s supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($515,000) of the 27 homes closed in April is 20% higher than the median price a year ago ($428,000) but it is below the record high median price of $556,000 last month. In April 2011, the median price was $233,000. The Days on Market for the 27 homes that closed in April was 38 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April (49) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 44% ahead of the level of April 2017 (34) and it is 29% ahead of the inventory last month (38). There were 29 new sales for the month of April. This sales pace is up 21% from the pace in April 2017 (24) and it is 81% ahead of the pace last month (16).  The Russian River market was very strong in April. There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $489,000 for the 16 homes that closed in April. In April 2009, the median price was $190,000. The Days on Market for the 16 homes that closed in April was 39 days.

Santa Rosa:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of April (250) is 20% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (208) and it is 29% ahead of the inventory last month (194). New sales in April (177) are 5% below the pace of last April (187) and they are essentially equal to the pace last month (175). There is a 1.4 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 142 homes closed in April in Santa Rosa was $611,000 compared to $550,000 a year ago – a 11% increase. The Days on Market for the 142 homes that closed in April was 43 days.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April in Sebastopol (50) is 28% ahead of the level of April 2017 (39) and it is 25% ahead of the inventory last month (40). There were 21 new sales for the month of April. This is 28% below the pace in April 2017 (29) and it is 11% ahead of the pace last month (19). There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 21 homes that closed in Sebastopol in April went from listing to pending in 77 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (99) at the end of April in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) continued to rise. The inventory is 16.5% ahead of the inventory of last month (85) and it is 8% below the inventory last April (108). There were 45 new sales for the month. This is slightly lower than the pace of sales in April 2017 (46) and it is equal to the pace of last month (45). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 63% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 43% of the new sales (19) in April were priced at over $1,000,000. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of April started at $3,000,000. This is up from $2,700,000 last month. Twenty-one homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 14 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 25 homes available in this quartile in April compared to 22 a year ago. There were no new sales in the top quartile in April. We would expect to see at least a couple in the coming month. The Days on Market for the 44 homes that closed in April in the Sonoma market was 56 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of April equals 33 properties. This is 120% ahead of the inventory in April 2017 (15) and it is 22% ahead of the 27 homes last month. There were 33 new sales for the month. This is equal to the pace of sales in April 2017 (33) and it is 6.5% ahead of the pace of last month (31). There is a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 22 homes that closed in April in Windsor was 44 days. The median price ($682,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in April is 15% higher than the median price a year ago ($595,000) and it is the highest median price ever recorded for any month in Windsor.

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of April (267) is 15% below the inventory in April 2017 (313) and it is 8% ahead of the inventory last month (248). New sales (123) were 10% below the pace of last year (137) and 12% ahead of the pace of last month (110). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 73 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 103 homes closed in April in Napa County ($645,000) was slightly higher than the median price of a year ago ($637,000). It was 5% below the historic high median price ($678,000) in December 2017.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,500,000 in Napa County at this time. This is up from $2,200,000 last month. The number of closings (49) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,500,000) in Napa County is down slightly for the period 5/1/17 to 4/30/18 compared to 51 from 5/1/16 to 4/30/17. There were 65 luxury homes in inventory at the end of April 2018 compared to 56 at the end of April 2017. There were six new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 10.8 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.2 months supply for the County as a whole.

American Canyon:  There were 18 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of April in American Canyon. This is slightly ahead of the inventory a year ago (17) and it is slightly below the supply last month (19). New sales (10) were slightly ahead of the pace of April 2017 (9) and they were 33% below the pace of last month (15). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 33 days. This is a very quick selling cycle. The median price of the 15 homes that closed in American Canyon in April ($525,000) was about 1% below the median price of a year ago ($530,000). The median price in April 2010 was $305,000.

Napa:  There were 134 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of April in the City of Napa. This is 25% lower than the inventory a year ago (178) and it is 5% ahead of the supply last month (128). New sales (84) were 17% below the pace of April 2017 (101) and they were 17% ahead of the pace of last month (72). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 66 homes that closed in the City of Napa in April was $670,000. This is 5% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in April 2017 ($640,000) and it is 2% below the all time high median price ($685,000) recorded in December 2017.

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of April (93) is 4% below the level of 97 in April 2017 and it is 21% ahead of the level last month (77). There were 22 new sales in the month compared to 18 a year ago and 17 last month. As anticipated, sales continued to rebound from a loll from November through February. There is now a 4.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month was 99 days. Approximately 57% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,500,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (37 homes). There were five new luxury home (price in excess of $2,500,000) sales in the Up Valley Market last month. This is out of six total luxury sales for the County. The luxury market is showing signs of health in the Up Valley Market.