Wine Country Real Estate Trends in February 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for February 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 27 closings in February 2018 compared to 25 last month and 22 last February. In February, we closed homes with a total value of $21.5 million compared to $13 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in February was $795,192.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 48 pending sales with a value of $36 million dollars. We have 55 active listings with a value of $81 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,473,000.
Lot Listings After the Fires: Over 5,000 structures burned in Sonoma and Napa Counties in the October, 2017 fires. We’re seeing many lots coming on the market. In November 2017, 21 lots came on the market in Wine Country (Sonoma and Napa Counties). None of them were lots from the fires. In December 2017, 28 lots came on the market – 17 of them were from the fires. In January 2018, 73 lots came on the market, 47 of them from the fires. And, in February 2018, 144 lots came on the market – probably 120 of them being from the fires. The listing prices of the fire damaged lots that came on the market in February ranged from $150,000 for a 6,100 sf lot in NE Santa Rosa to $995,000 for a one acre parcel in Skyfarm, Fountaingrove – in NE Santa Rosa. Surprisingly, no lots came on the market in Napa County last month. 80 lots went into escrow in February compared to 20 a year ago – a 300% increase. There were 63 lots that closed in February compared to 23 a year ago – a 174% increase.
We expect that many more fire damaged lots will come on the market in the coming months and it will be interesting to track the values as properties begin to close escrow. For now, we are estimating that these lots are being offered at 60% of what might have been their value before the fires. The complications of clearing, permitting and building on these sites remain high.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of February stands at 518. This is up 5% from the inventory in February 2017 (495) and it is up 19% from the inventory last month (434). New sales (351) in February were 6% ahead of the pace of February 2017 (330) and they were 17% ahead of last month (300). There is just a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 23 (Oakmont) to 114 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 55 days. The median price of homes closed in February in Sonoma County was $650,000. This is an 18% increase over the median price in February 2017 ($550,000). $650,000 is the highest median price that we have ever had in the County. We expect that the loss of homes in the fires will continue to put upwards pressure on prices in most locations throughout the County over the coming months.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,500,000). There has been a 20% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (255) from 3/1/17 to 2/28/18 compared to 212 from 3/1/16 to 2/28/17. The inventory of luxury homes (129) is 12% ahead of where it was in February 2017 (115 homes). The pace of new sales (22) in February this year was 83% ahead of the pace of a year ago (12) and was slightly ahead of the pace last month (21). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 111 days this February compared to 201 days a year ago. This compares to 55 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in February. There is a six months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.5 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Again, the purchase of replacement homes by those who lost homes in the fires is likely contributing to this activity in the top quartile.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (16) in Cloverdale at the end of February is about equal to the 14 homes in inventory in February last year and it is equal to the 16 homes last month. There were 16 new sales in Cloverdale in February. This compares to 13 sales in February 2017 and 16 new sales last month. There is a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.
Coastal Sonoma: There were just 11 homes available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is the lowest inventory here in recent memory. This is 52% below the inventory (23) a year ago and 42% below the inventory last month (19). There were 8 new home sales for the month of February compared to 3 a year ago and 5 last month. There is now just a 1.4 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. This is an extremely tight inventory for the coastal market. The Days on Market for the 5 homes that closed in February was 114 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 42 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 22% below the inventory in February 2017 (54) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (47). There were 20 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 17.6% ahead of the number of sales in February 2017 (17) and it is 54% ahead of the pace last month (13). The months of available inventory is 2.1 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 16 homes that closed in February was 72 days.
Oakmont: There were 18 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of February. This is about equal to the inventory in February 2017 (19) and it is 38.5% ahead of the inventory last month (13). New sales (19) in Oakmont jumped up from the slow pace last month. Sales were 72% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (11) and 375% ahead of the pace of last month (4). Something happened to trigger the market in Oakmont last month. There is just a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $665,000 for the 9 homes that closed in February.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of February (50) is 16% ahead of the inventory in February 2017 (43) and it is 79% ahead of the inventory last month (28). There were 36 new sales for the month. This is 28% below the number of new sales in February 2017 (50) and is 20% ahead of the 30 sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 1.4 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 32 homes that closed in February was $714,000. This is 10.5% ahead of the median price last February ($646,000).
Rohnert Park: For the past sixteen months, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park have outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. There were 22 new sales in February compared to 22 last month and 20 in February 2017. The inventory began the month at 16 homes and ended the month at 12 homes. There is just 0.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($526,000) of the 21 homes closed in February was 11% higher than the median price a year ago ($475,000). In February 2011, the median price was $249,000.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February (31) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 48% ahead of the level of February 2017 (21) and it is 29% ahead of the inventory last month (24). There were 10 new sales for the month of February. This sales pace is equal to the pace in February 2017 (10) and 57% below the pace last month (23). There is a 3.1 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $560,000 for the 12 homes that closed in February. In February 2009, the median price was $190,000.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of February (166) is slightly below the inventory of a year ago (173) and it is 30% ahead of the inventory last month (128). New sales in February (157) were 23% ahead of the pace of last February (128) and they were 37% ahead of the pace last month (115). There is a 1.1 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 100 homes closed in February in Santa Rosa was $588,000 compared to $519,000 a year ago – a 13% increase.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February (44) in Sebastopol is 63% ahead of the level of February 2017 (27) and it is 13% ahead of the inventory last month (39). There were 16 new sales for the month of February. This is 60% ahead of the pace in February 2017 (10) and also 60% ahead of the pace last month (10). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 14 homes that closed in Sebastopol in February went from listing to pending in 47 days – a relatively short time for the Sebastopol market.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (77) at the end of February in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) began to rise after falling monthly since September. The inventory is 5.5% ahead of the inventory last February (73) and it is 12% ahead of the inventory of last month (69). There were 32 new sales for the month. This is 18% lower than the pace of sales in February 2017 (39) and it is about equal to the pace of last month (30). There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 58% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 22% of the new sales (7) in February were priced at over $1,000,000. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of February started at $2,600,000. Twenty-six homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 19 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 19 homes available in this quartile in February compared to 12 a year ago. There were two new sales in the top quartile in February resulting in a 9.5 months supply of inventory in the top quartile based upon the current sales pace.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of February (33) spiked. It is 106% ahead of the inventory in February 2017 (16) and it is 154% ahead of the 13 homes last month. There were 21 new sales for the month. This is 12.5% below the pace of sales in February 2017 (24) and it is 10% ahead of the pace of last month (19). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 13 homes closed in February in Windsor was 30 days. The median price ($650,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in February was 23% higher than the median price a year ago ($529,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of February (202) is 15% below the inventory in February 2017 (238) and it is 4% ahead of the inventory last month (195). New sales (96) were 2% ahead of the pace of last year (94) and 10% ahead of the pace of last month (87). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 81 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 77 homes closed in February in Napa County ($689,000) was 6.3% higher than the median price of a year ago ($648,000). It was slightly ahead of the historic high median price ($678,000) in December 2017.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,300,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (57) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is 21% lower for the period 3/1/17 to 2/28/18 compared to 69 from 3/1/16 to 2/28/17. There were 50 luxury homes in inventory at the end of February 2018 compared to 49 at the end of February 2017. There were four new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 12.5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.1 months supply for the County as a whole. We expect to see more Luxury Home sales in the coming months.
American Canyon: There were 17 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in American Canyon. This is 70% ahead of the inventory a year ago (10) and it is about equal to the supply last month (16). New sales (14) were 75% ahead of the pace of February 2017 (8) and they were 40% ahead of the pace of last month (10). There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in American Canyon is currently 52 days. Homes are selling quickly here. The median price of the 8 homes that closed in American Canyon in February was $513,000 was 5% below the median price of a year ago ($540,000). The median price in February 2009 was $295,000.
Napa: There were 108 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in the City of Napa. This is 23% lower than the inventory a year ago (140) and it is 8% ahead of the supply last month (100). New sales (66) were 4% below the pace of February 2017 (69) and they were 8% ahead of the pace of last month (61). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 57 homes that closed in Napa in February was $715,000. This is 25% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in February 2017 ($570,000) and 4% ahead of the all time high median price ($685,000) recorded in December 2017. The city of Napa is a hot market right now.
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of February (60) is 13% below the level of 69 in February 2017 and it is 5% ahead of the level last month (57). There were just 9 new sales in the month compared to 13 a year ago and 12 last month. Sales in the Up Valley have been below average for the past four months. I expect to see a jump in sales there in the coming couple of months. There is now a 6.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 closings last month was 131 days. Approximately 58% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (29 homes). There were no luxury home (price in excess of $2,300,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month.