Wine Country Real Estate Trends in January 2018

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for January 2018

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 25 closings in January 2018 compared to 39 last month. In January, we closed homes with a total value of $13 million compared to $26 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in January was $534,274.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 48 pending sales with a value of $40 million dollars. We have 47 active listings with a value of $76 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,617,000.

Lot Listings After the Fires: Over 5,000 structures burned in Sonoma and Napa Counties in the October, 2017 fires. We’re beginning to see many lots coming on the market. In November 2017, 21 lots came on the market in Wine Country (Sonoma and Napa Counties). None of them were lots from the fires. In December 2017, 28 lots came on the market – 17 of them were from the fires. In January 2018, 73 lots came on the market, 47 of them from the fires.   The listing prices of the fire damaged lots that came on the market in January ranged from $119,000 in Santa Rosa to $790,000 in Silverado in Napa County. There was one outlier lot priced at $2,500,000 that includes 80 acres.   Some of the new fire damaged lots were homes that were listed for sale at the time of the fires, so they show up in our database as “price reductions”.

From 12/1/17 to 1/31/18, ten fire damaged lots went pending with values of $160,000 to $645,000. A licensed appraiser told me that he is getting calls to appraise fire-damaged lots – with buildings/homes that survived the fires. The owners want to know how much values have depreciated so that they can request reduced tax assessments. He states that there is insufficient data at this time to make any reasonable estimate and it may be six months to a year before there is sufficient data.   From our own experience selling a home on Bennett Ridge with a fire damaged lot last month – there did not appear to be a reduction in value in this particular case.

We expect that many more fire damaged lots will come on the market in the coming months and it will be interesting to track the values as properties begin to close escrow.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of January countered normal seasonal trends and actually rose. The inventory stands at 434 and is up 7% from the inventory last month (406). It is down 17% from the inventory in January 2017 (521). It is down 52% from the 899 homes available at the end of September. New sales (313) in January were 11% ahead of last month (282) and were also 11% ahead of the pace of January 2017 (283). There is just a 1.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 39 (Oakmont) to 128 (Healdsburg) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 61 days. The median price of homes closed in January in Sonoma County was $639,000.  This is down slightly from last month and is a 16% increase over the median price in January 2017 ($550,000). We expect that the loss of homes in the fires will continue to put upwards pressure on prices in most locations throughout the County over the next few months. The counter to that may be the new federal tax law that may put downward pressure on home values in California yet we have not heard buyers talking about that yet.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,600,000). There has been a 13.5% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (201) from 2/1/17 to 1/31/18 compared to 177 from 2/1/16 to 1/31/17. The inventory of luxury homes (104) is 6% ahead of where it was in January 2017 (98 homes). The pace of new sales (13) in January this year was 62.5% ahead of the pace of a year ago (8) and was 6% ahead of the pace last month (11). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 147 days this January compared to 116 days a year ago. This compares to 61 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in January. There is an 8 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.4 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.

We believe that part of the strength of sales in the Luxury Home market continues to come from purchasers replacing homes destroyed in the October fires.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (16) in Cloverdale at the end of January is about equal to the 15 homes in inventory in January last year and it is 23% ahead of the 13 homes last month. There were 17 new sales in Cloverdale in January. This compares to 4 sales in January 2017 and 11 new sales last month. There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.

Coastal Sonoma:  There were 19 homes available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 21% below the inventory (24) a year ago and 12% ahead of the inventory last month (17). There were 5 new home sales for the month of January compared to 5 a year ago and 7 last month. There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 8 homes that closed in January was 100 days.

Healdsburg Trends:  There were 47 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 17.5% below the inventory in January 2017 (57) and it is 9% ahead of the inventory last month (43). There were 14 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 18% below the number of sales in January 2017 (17) and it is slightly above the pace last month (11). The months of available inventory is 3.4 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in January was 128 days.

Oakmont:  There were 13 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of January. This is 19% below the inventory in January 2017 (16) and it is 30% ahead of the inventory last month (10). There were just 4 new sales for the month. This is the lowest number of sales for any month in over a year. It is 67% below the sales pace of a year ago (12) and 75% below the pace of last month (16). There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 0.6 months supply in the last few months. The median price of homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $750,000. The median price was $800,000 for the 9 homes closed in January.

Petaluma:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of January (28) is 50% below the inventory in January 2017 (56) and it is 47% ahead of the inventory last month (19). There were 32 new sales for the month. This is 27% below the number of new sales in January 2017 (44) and is 14% ahead of the 28 sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 0.9 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 27 homes that closed in January was $721,000. This is 12% ahead of the median price last January ($643,000).

Rohnert Park:  For the past fifteen months, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park have outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. There were 21 new sales in January compared to 19 last month and 26 in January 2017. The inventory began the month at 10 homes and ended the month at 16 homes. There is just 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($560,000) of the 18 homes closed in January was 10% higher than the median price a year ago ($510,000). In January 2010, the median price was $194,000.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January (24) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 9% ahead of the level of January 2017 (22) and it is 39% below the inventory last month (39). There were 26 new sales for the month of January and this soaked up the inventory. This sales pace is 160% ahead of the pace in January 2017 (10) and 136% ahead of the pace last month (11). There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price ($410,000) of the 17 homes that closed in January was 12% higher than the median price a year ago ($365,000). In January 2010, the median price was $203,000.

Santa Rosa:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of January (128) is 26% below the inventory of a year ago (173) and it is 31% ahead of the inventory last month (98). New sales in January (120) were 12% ahead of the pace of last January (107) and they were 8% below the pace last month (130). There is a 1.1 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 120 homes closed in January in Santa Rosa was $590,000 compared to $501,000 a year ago – an 18% increase.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January (39) in Sebastopol is 39% ahead of the level of January 2017 (28) and it is about equal to the inventory last month (40). There were 10 new sales for the month of January. This is 17% below the pace in January 2017 (12) and 29% below the pace last month (14). There is a 3.9 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 10 homes that closed in Sebastopol in January went from listing to pending in 73 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (69) at the end of January in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) continued to drop. At the end of January there were 89 fewer homes available (-56%) than at the end of September. The inventory is 4% below that of last January (72) and it is 8% below the inventory of last month (75). There were 31 new sales for the month. This is 35% ahead of the pace of sales in January 2017 (23) and it is 55% ahead of the pace of last month (20). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 55% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 39% of the new sales (9) in January were priced at over $1,000,000. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of January started at $2,500,000. This is down from $3,000,000 at the end of October. Twenty-five homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 22 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 17 homes available in this quartile in January compared to 10 a year ago. There were three new sales in the top quartile in January resulting in a 5.7 months supply of inventory in the top quartile based upon the current sales pace.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of January (13) is 32% below the inventory in January 2017 (19) and it is 63% ahead of the 8 homes last month. There were 20 new sales for the month. This is equal to the pace of sales in January 2017 and it is 58% ahead of the pace of last month (13). There is still just a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 15 homes closed in January in Windsor was 44 days. The median price ($750,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in January was a whopping 43% higher than the median price a year ago ($523,000).

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of January (195) is 18% below the inventory in January 2017 (237) and it is 16% below the inventory last month (231). New sales (96) were 3% ahead of the pace of last year (93) and 13% ahead of the pace of last month (85). There is a two months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 89 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 87 homes closed in January in Napa County ($650,000) was exactly equal to the median price of a year ago. It was down 4% from the historic high median price ($678,000) last month.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,200,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (63) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,200,000) in Napa County is 12.5% lower for the period 2/1/17 to 1/31/18 compared to 72 from 2/1/16 to 1/31/17. There were 48 luxury homes in inventory at the end of January 2018 compared to 52 at the end of January 2017. There was just one new Luxury Home sale last month resulting in a 48 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.0 months supply for the County as a whole. We expect to see more Luxury Home sales in the coming months.

American Canyon:  There were 16 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in American Canyon. This is 24% below the inventory a year ago (21) and it is 7% ahead of the supply last month (16). New sales (10) were 23% below the pace of January 2017 (13) and they were 17% below the pace of last month (16). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in American Canyon is currently 63 days. The median price of the 10 homes that closed in American Canyon in January was $580,000 was 13% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($515,000). This is the highest median price ever recorded for any month in American Canyon but it is a small sample size (10 homes).

 Napa:  There were 100 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in the City of Napa. This is 29% lower than the inventory a year ago (140) and it is 17% lower than the supply last month (121). This is the lowest inventory for any month in the City of Napa for the fifteen years of records that we have. New sales (69) were 15% ahead of the pace of January 2017 (60) and they were 11% ahead of the pace of last month (62). There is just a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 66 homes that closed in Napa in January was $655,000. This is 3% below the median price of the homes closed in January 2017 ($678,000) and 4% below the all time high median price ($685,000) recorded last month.

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of January (57) is 12% below the level of 65 in January 2017 and it is 22% below the level last month (73). There were 14 new sales in the month compared to 15 a year ago and 10 last month. There is now a 4.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 9 closings last month was 95 days. Approximately 56% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,200,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (27 homes). No luxury home sales in Napa County last month were in the Up Valley Market.