Wine Country Real Estate Trends in January 2019
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for January 2019
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 29 closings in January 2019 compared to 26 last January and 44 last month. In January, we closed homes with a total value of $15 million compared to $13 million last year and $32 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in January was $517,241.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 47 pending sales with a value of $35 million dollars. We have 48 active listings with a value of $47 million dollars. Our average listing price is $979,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for January 2019:
Market Comparisons to January 2018
Note: The wildfires across Wine Country occurred in early October 2017. A good number of homes were removed from the market in later October 2017 as folks tried to figure out the impact of the fires on home sales. Thus, the inventory of available homes was unseasonably low for the months following the fires. Comparing this year to last, some of the percentages are quite high and that is partly driven by the fires in late 2017.
Spring Market: It’s often said that our Wine Country real estate market slows down between Thanksgiving and Super Bowl Sunday. Super Bowl Sunday just passed – so we’re looking forward to the beginning of our “Spring Market” that usually runs until schools let out in late May, early June.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of January stands at 705. This is 62% ahead of the inventory in January 2018 (434) and it is down 8% from the inventory last month (768). This remains a relatively high inventory for recent years but not an unreasonably high number for historical purposes. New sales (300) in Sonoma County in January were essentially equal to the pace of January 2018 (299) and they were 11% ahead of the pace last month (271). There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 48 (Petaluma) to 154 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 84 days (the highest in the past twelve months). The median price of homes closed in January in Sonoma County was $620,000. This is a 3% decrease from the median price in January 2018 ($640,000).
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,100,000). There has been an 8.5% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (638) from 2/1/18 to 1/31/19 compared to 588 closings in the period 2/1/17 to 1/31/18. The inventory of luxury homes (169) is about equal to the inventory in January 2018 (167 homes). The pace of new sales (28) in January this year is 39% below the pace of a year ago (46) and it is essentially equal to the pace last month (29). The high number of sales in this price range in January 2018 is partially due to the fires of late 2017. The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 104 days this January compared to 89 days a year ago. This compares to 84 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in January. There is a 6 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.4 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (27) in Cloverdale at the end of January is 69% ahead of the inventory in January of 2018 (16). It is 10% below the inventory of last month (30). There were 12 new sales in Cloverdale in January. This compares to 16 sales in January 2018 and 7 new sales last month. There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 5 homes that closed in January was 89 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There are 17 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 10.5% below the inventory (19) a year ago and it is 19% below the inventory last month (21). There were 4 new sales in January compared to 5 a year ago and 2 last month. There is now a 4.3 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the four homes that closed in January was 154 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There are 54 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 15% above the inventory in January 2018 (47) and it is 14% below the inventory last month (63). New sales in January (16) were 23% ahead of the pace of sales in January 2018 (13) and they were 45% ahead of the sales pace last month (11). The months of available inventory is now 3.4 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 16 homes that closed in January was 129 days.
Oakmont: There are 32 homes available in Oakmont at the end of January. This is 146% ahead of the inventory in January 2018 (13) and it is 9% below the inventory last month (35). New sales (11) are 175% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (4) and are 15% below the pace of last month (13). There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $603,000 for the 10 homes that closed in January. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 76 days.
Petaluma: The inventory in Petaluma at the end of January (51) is 82% ahead of the inventory in January 2018 (28) and it is about equal to the inventory last month (53). There were 36 new sales for the month. This is 20% ahead of the 30 sales in January 2018 and it is 71% ahead of the 21 new sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 1.4 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. Petaluma remains one of the tightest markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 23 homes that closed in January was $670,000. This is 7% below the median price last January ($721,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 48 days.
Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of January (49) is 206% ahead of the inventory in January 2018 (16) and it is 11% ahead of the inventory last month (44). There were 27 new sales in Rohnert Park in January. This is 23% above the 22 sales in January 2018 and it is 42% ahead of the 19 sales last month. There is 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($490,000) of the 15 homes and condominiums that closed in January is 12.5% below the median price a year ago ($560,000). In January 2010, the median price was $210,000. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 80 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January (35) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 46% ahead of the level of January 2018 (24) and it is 29% below the inventory last month (49). There were 15 new sales for the month of January. This sales pace is 35% below the pace in January 2018 (23) and it is 87% ahead of the pace last month (8). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $510,000 for the 7 homes that closed in January. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 61 days.
Santa Rosa: Thirty-nine percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of January (274) is 114% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (128) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (293). New sales in January (126) are 11.5% ahead of the pace of last January (113) and they are 3% below the pace last month (130). There is a 2.2 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 123 homes closed in January in Santa Rosa was $575,000 compared to $589,000 a year ago – a 2.4% decrease. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in January was 81 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Sebastopol (35) is 10% below the level of January 2018 (39) and it is also 10% below the inventory last month (39). There were 14 new sales for the month of January. This is 40% ahead of the pace in January 2018 (10) and it is 26% below the pace last month (19). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 15 homes that closed in Sebastopol in January went from listing to pending in 101 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (74) at the end of January in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 7% above the inventory last January (69) and it is slightly below the inventory of last month (77). There were 21 new sales for the month. This is 30% below the 30 sales in January 2018 and it is 17% ahead of the 18 last month. There is a 4.1 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. Fifty-three percent (39 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 24% of the new sales (5) in January were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of January starts at $3,000,000. 20 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 18 in the twelve months prior to that. There are 18 homes available in this quartile in January 2019 compared to 13 a year ago. There were no new sales in the top quartile in January creating an 18 months supply of inventory in this quartile based on the current sales pace. The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price of roughly $1,000 per square foot of building area.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of January equals 41 properties. This is 215% ahead of the inventory in January 2018 (13) and it is essentially equal to the 40 homes last month. There were 15 new sales for the month. This is 21% below the pace of sales in January 2018 (19) and it is slightly below the pace of last month (17). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 18 homes that closed in January in Windsor was 80 days. The median price ($594,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in January is 21% lower than the median price a year ago ($750,000). Both the number of sales and the high median price of a year ago were partially driven by the fires in October 2017.
Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 436 properties. This is 37% ahead of the number of lots in January 2018 (318) and it is 9% below the number of available lots last month (478). There were 45 new lot sales in January. This is 26% below the pace of sales in January 2018 (61) and it is 73% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (26). There is a 9.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 26 lots closed in January was 161 days and the median price was $250,000 – close to the median price a year ago.
Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of January is 72 homes. This is 31% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in January 2018 (55) and it is 10% below the number of available homes last month (80). There were 32 new mobile home sales in January. This is 10% ahead of the pace of sales in January 2018 (29) and it is 23% ahead of the pace of sales last month (26). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 31 mobile homes closed in January was 77 days and the median price was $173,000. This median price is 18% ahead of the median price of $147,000 in January 2018.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of January (280) is 44% ahead of the inventory in January 2018 (195) and it is 4% below the inventory last month (292). 39% of the inventory in Napa County (109 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above. New sales (85) are equal to the pace of last year (86) and are 35% ahead of the 63 sales last month. There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 120 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 58 homes closed in January in Napa County ($635,000) was 3% lower than the median price of a year ago ($655,000).
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $1,600,000 in Napa County at this time (this is down from $1,900,000 over the past several months). The number of closings (139) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,600,000) in Napa County for the period 2/1/18 to 1/31/19 compared to 118 closings in the period 2/1/17 to 1/31/18 (an 18% increase). There were 68 luxury homes in inventory at the end of January 2019 compared to 71 at the end of January 2018. There were 4 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 17 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 3.3 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 30 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in American Canyon. This is 87% ahead of the inventory a year ago (16) and it is 20% ahead of the supply last month (25). New sales (10) were 11% ahead of the 9 sales in January 2018 and they were 67% ahead of the 6 sales last month. There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 76 days. The median price of the 8 homes that closed in American Canyon in January ($428,000) was 26% below the median price of a year ago ($580,000). The median price in January 2011 was $240,000.
Napa: Fifty-eight percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There were 163 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in the City of Napa. This is a 63% ahead of the supply at the end of January 2018 (100) and it is equal to the inventory at the end of last month (163). New sales (60) were equal to the pace of January 2018 (61) and they were 43% ahead of the pace of last month (42). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 36 closings last month was 110 days. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in January was $635,000. This is 4% below the median price of the homes closed in January 2018 ($660,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of January (63) is 11% higher than the level of 57 in January 2018 and it is 17% below the level last month (76). There were 10 new sales in the month compared to 12 a year ago and 14 last month. There is now a 6.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 12 closings last month was 186 days. Approximately 41% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $1,600,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (28 homes). There were two luxury home (price in excess of $1,600,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and three new luxury home sales.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January in Angwin is down to just six homes. This is 46% below the level of January 2018 (11) and it is 25% below the inventory last month (8). It is the lowest inventory in Angwin in recent memory. There was just one new sale for the month of January compared to one last month and three in January of 2018. There is a 6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average asking price of the 6 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,602,000.