Wine Country Real Estate Trends in July 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for July 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 54 closings in July 2018 compared to 38 last month and 55 last July. On a year to date basis, we are 4% ahead for units closed comparing 2018 to 2017. In July, we closed homes with a total value of $40 million compared to $24 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in July was $732,284.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 54 pending sales with a value of $36 million dollars. We have 87 active listings with a value of $112 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,287,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for July 2018:
Lot Listings After the Fires: Over 5,000 structures burned in Sonoma and Napa Counties in the October, 2017 fires. We continue to see lots coming on the market. At the end of July, there were 519 vacant lots on the market – the vast majority being from the fires. This is an increase of 67% from the inventory in July 2017 (310). There were 50 new sales in July 2018. This is a 117% increase from the 23 new sales in July 2017. There is a 10 months supply of inventory based on this sales pace. 50 lots closed in July with a median sales price of $278,000. This compares to $253,000 last month and $105,000 last year.
We expect that many more fire damaged lots will continue to come on the market in the coming months and it will be interesting to track the values as properties begin to close escrow. For now, we are estimating that these lots are being offered at 60% of what might have been their value before the fires. The complications of clearing, permitting and building on these sites remain high.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of July stands at 1,135. This is 31% ahead of the inventory in July 2017 (867) and it is up 12% from the inventory last month 1,014). This is the 2nd month in a row where the Sonoma County inventory has exceeded 1,000 units since July 2012. It is also the highest inventory for any month since December 2011 – the end of the recession. This continues to point to a shifting market. New sales (503) in July were 7% below the pace of July 2017 (543) and they were 13% ahead of the pace last month (444). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 37 (Rohnert Park) to 68 (Sebastopol and Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 47 days. This remains a relatively low “Days on Market figure” for the County. The median price of homes closed in July in Sonoma County was $639,000. This is a 6.5% increase over the median price in July 2017 ($600,000). As we expected, this has settled down from the 12% year over year increase in the first part of the year. The influence of fire victims purchasing replacement homes is easing. We think that it’s possible that this phenomenon might reoccur in December and early next year as those who leased homes after the fires July look to purchase homes as their leases expire.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,200,000). There has been a 35% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (560) from 8/1/17 to 7/31/18 compared to 415 sales in the period 8/1/16 to 7/31/17. The inventory of luxury homes (276) is 3.5% below the inventory in July 2017 (286 homes). The pace of new sales (56) in July this year is about equal to the pace of a year ago (52) and is equal to the pace last month (56). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 62 days this July compared to 76 days a year ago. This compares to 47 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in July. There is a 4.9 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.3 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (36) in Cloverdale at the end of July is 57% ahead of the inventory in July of 2017 (23). It is 12% below the inventory last month (41). There were 8 new sales in Cloverdale in July. This compares to 17 sales in July 2017 and 13 new sales last month. There is a 4.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 14 homes that closed in July was 41 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There were 27 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 13% below the inventory (31) a year ago and it is 23% ahead of the inventory last month (22). There were 5 new sales in July compared to 6 a year ago and 9 last month. There is now a 5.4 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. There were 4 closings in the month of July down from 12 a month ago. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 38 days – a very short time for the Coastal Sonoma market.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 88 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is essentially equal to the inventory in July 2017 (89) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (84). There were 21 new sales compared to 25 in June. Sales were slightly below the pace of sales in July 2017 (23). The months of available inventory is now 4.2 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 23 homes that closed in July was 58 days.
Oakmont: Inventory spiked in July in Oakmont. The 52 homes available at the end of July is the highest since October 2010 – in the midst of the recession. It is 189% ahead of the inventory in July 2017 (18) and it is 41% ahead of the inventory last month (37). New sales (17) in Oakmont are essentially equal to the sales pace of a year ago (18) and are equal to the pace of last month (17). There is a 3.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $680,000 for the 17 homes that closed in July. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in July was 46 days.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma spiked in July. The inventory at the end of July (104) is 41% ahead of the inventory in July 2017 (74) and it is 30% ahead of the inventory last month (80). This is the highest inventory in Petaluma since January 2012 at the end of the recession. There were 61 new sales for the month. This is 13% below the 70 sales in July 2017 and it is 27% ahead of the number of new sales last month (48). The Petaluma market currently has 1.7 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 46 homes that closed in July was $680,000. This is 2% below the median price last July ($695,000). The Days on Market for the 46 homes that closed in July was 38 days.
Rohnert Park: Finally, after over a year and a half, the sales in Rohnert Park in the month did not outpace the inventory at the end of the month. There were 36 new sales in July compared to 36 last month and 57 in July 2017 – year over year decrease was 37%. The inventory began the month at 32 homes and ended the month at 49 homes. This is a 53% increase in inventory from last month. The year over year increase in inventory is 123%. This is the highest inventory in Rohnert Park since December 2011 at the end of the recession. There is 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 0.8 months supply last month. The median price ($554,000) of the 34 homes and condominiums that closed in July is 14% higher than the median price a year ago ($485,000). In July 2012, the median price was $250,000. The Days on Market for the 34 homes that closed in July was 37 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July (75) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 21% ahead of the level of July 2017 (62) and it is also 21% ahead of the inventory last month (62). There were 34 new sales for the month of July. This sales pace is down 8% from the pace in July 2017 (37) and it is 21% ahead of the pace last month (28). The Russian River market continues to be strong. There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $503,000 for the 34 homes that closed in July. This is 6% ahead of the median price in July 2017 ($475,000). The Days on Market for the 34 homes that closed in July was 41 days.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of July (464) is 63% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (285) and it is 11% ahead of the inventory last month (417). This is the highest inventory in Santa Rosa for any month since November 2011 – seven years ago at the end of the recession. This might be a signal of a shifting market. New sales in July (204) are about equal to the pace of last July (201) and they are 19% ahead of the pace last month (171). There is a 2.3 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 163 homes closed in July in Santa Rosa was $595,000 compared to $562,000 a year ago – a 6% increase. The Days on Market for the 163 homes that closed in July was 45 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Sebastopol (85) is 93% ahead of the level of July 2017 (44) and it is 6% ahead of the inventory last month (80). This is the highest inventory in Sebastopol since July 2012. There were 31 new sales for the month of July. This is slightly ahead of the pace in July 2017 (30) and it is 35% ahead of the pace last month (23). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 19 homes that closed in Sebastopol in July went from listing to pending in 68 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (103) at the end of July in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is equal to the inventory of last month and it is 18% below the inventory last July (126). There were 53 new sales for the month. This is slightly ahead of the pace of sales in July 2017 (50) and it is 20.5% ahead of the pace of last month (44). There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 63% percent of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 40% of the new sales (21) in July were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of July starts at $3,000,000. 22 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 14 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 26 homes available in this quartile in July compared to 32 a year ago. There was one new sale in the top quartile in July. There is a 26 months supply of inventory in this quartile based on the current sales pace.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of July equals 57 properties. This is 54% ahead of the inventory in July 2017 (37) and it is 12% ahead of the 51 homes last month. This is the highest level of inventory in Windsor since November 2011 at the end of the recession. There were 33 new sales for the month. This is 22% ahead of the pace of sales in July 2017 (27) and it is 32% ahead of the pace of last month (25). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 25 homes that closed in July in Windsor was 42 days. The median price ($635,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in July is 12% higher than the median price a year ago ($569,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of July (385) was slightly lower than last month (388). The inventory is 7.5% ahead of the inventory in July 2017 (358). New sales (146) were 39% ahead of the pace of last year (105) and 12% ahead of the pace of last month (130). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 62 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 121 homes closed in July in Napa County ($700,000) was 5% higher than the median price of a year ago ($665,000).
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,300,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (60) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County for the period 8/1/17 to 7/31/18 is slightly below the number for the period 8/1/16 to 7/31/17 (62). There were 94 luxury homes in inventory at the end of July 2018 compared to 79 at the end of July 2017. There were six new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 15.7 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.6 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 27 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in American Canyon. This is 17% ahead of the inventory a year ago (23) and it is 12.5% ahead of the supply last month (24). New sales (16) were 46% ahead of the pace of July 2017 (11) and they were 33% ahead the pace of last month (12). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 56 days. The median price of the 10 homes that closed in American Canyon in July ($644,000) was a whopping 50% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($427,000). The $644,000 median price is the highest recorded for any month in American Canyon and the $427,000 was the lowest median in the past 12 months. The median price in July 2009 was $240,000.
Napa: Fifty four percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There were 206 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of July in the City of Napa. This is a 2.5% ahead of the inventory at the end of last month (201). It is 4% ahead of the supply at the end of July 2017 (198). New sales (106) were 54% ahead of the pace of July 2017 (69) and they were 15% ahead of the pace of last month (92). There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 82 homes that closed in the City of Napa in July was $710,000. This is 3% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in July 2017 ($689,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of July (122) is 10% ahead of the level of 111 in July 2017 and it is 10% below the level last month (135). There were 20 new sales in the month compared to 19 a year ago and 20 last month. There is now a 6.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There were a hefty 24 closings in the Up Valley Market last month. The Days on Market for those closings was 73 days. Approximately 56% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (53 homes). There were three luxury home (price in excess of $2,300,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month. This is out of five total luxury closings for the County.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of July in Angwin (20) is 13% below the level of July 2017 (23) and it is equal to the inventory last month (20). There were two new sales for the month of July compared to three last month and one in July of 1017. There is a 10 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average asking price of the 20 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,364,000 and the average price of the four homes that sold in Angwin in July was $1,380,000.