Wine Country Real Estate Trends in June 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for June 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 54 closings in June 2018 compared to 38 last month and 55 last June. On a year to date basis, we are 6% ahead for units closed comparing 2018 to 2017. In June, we closed homes with a total value of $40 million compared to $24 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in June was $732,284.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 45 pending sales with a value of $25 million dollars. We have 64 active listings with a value of $62 million dollars. Our average listing price is $969,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for June 2018:
Lot Listings After the Fires: Over 5,000 structures burned in Sonoma and Napa Counties in the October, 2017 fires. We continue to see lots coming on the market. At the end of June, there were 501 vacant lots on the market – the vast majority being from the fires. This is an increase of 67% from the inventory in June 2017 (315). There were 67 new sales in June 2018. This is a 235% increase from the 20 new sales in June 2017. There is a 7.5 months supply of inventory based on this sales pace. 54 lots closed in June with a median sales price of $253,000. This compares to $275,000 last month and $200,000 last year.
We expect that many more fire damaged lots will continue to come on the market in the coming months and it will be interesting to track the values as properties begin to close escrow. For now, we are estimating that these lots are being offered at 60% of what might have been their value before the fires. The complications of clearing, permitting and building on these sites remain high.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of June stands at 1,014. This is 15% ahead of the inventory in June 2017 (879) and it is up 26% from the inventory last month (807). This is the first time that the Sonoma County inventory has exceeded 1,000 units since July 2012. This might be a signal of a shifting market. New sales (465) in June were 7% below the pace of June 2017 (499) and they were equal to the pace last month (465). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 31 (Cloverdale) to 97 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 49 days. This remains a low “Days on Market figure” for the County. The median price of homes closed in June in Sonoma County was $660,000. This is a 9% increase over the median price in June 2017 ($605,000). As we expected, this has settled down from the 12% year over year increase in the first part of the year. The influence of fire victims purchasing replacement homes is easing. We think that it’s possible that this phenomenon might reoccur in December and early next year as those who leased homes after the fires June look to purchase homes as their leases expire.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,200,000). There has been a 40% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (558) from 7/1/17 to 6/30/18 compared to 398 sales in the period 7/1/16 to 6/30/17. The inventory of luxury homes (262) is 8% below the inventory in June 2017 (285 homes). The pace of new sales (59) in June this year was 37% ahead of the pace of a year ago (43) and was 8% below the pace last month (64). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 64 days this June compared to 73 days a year ago. This compares to 49 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in June. There is a 4.4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 3.8 months supply last month and a 2.2 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (41) in Cloverdale at the end of June jumped up 46% from the 28 homes in inventory last month. The inventory is up 115% in the past two months. It is also 71% ahead of the 24 homes in inventory in June of last year. It is the highest inventory in Cloverdale since September 2014. There were 13 new sales in Cloverdale in June. This compares to 14 sales in June 2017 and 15 new sales last month. With this increase in inventory, there is a 3.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 homes that closed in June was 31 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There were 22 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 21% below the inventory (28) a year ago and it is 10% ahead of the inventory last month (20). There were 9 new sales in June compared to 9 a year ago and 6 last month. There is now a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. There were 12 closings in the month of June that is the highest for Coastal Sonoma in recent memory. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June was 97 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 84 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 12.5% below the inventory in June 2017 (96) and it is 6% ahead of the inventory last month (79). The sales spigot opened for Healdsburg last month. There were 26 new sales compared to 32 in May. Sales were 24% ahead of the sales in June 2017 (23). The months of available inventory is now 3.2 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 22 homes that closed in June was 69 days.
Oakmont: There were 37 homes and condominiums in inventory in Oakmont at the end of June. This is the highest inventory since May 2012. It is 185% ahead of the inventory in June 2017 (13) and it is 62% ahead of the inventory last month (22). New sales (17) in Oakmont were slightly ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (16) and 55% ahead of the pace of last month (13). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $648,000 for the 16 homes that closed in June. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in June was 60 days.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of June (80) is 19% ahead of the inventory in June 2017 (67) and it is 14% ahead of the inventory last month (70). This is the highest inventory in Petaluma since September 2016. There were 54 new sales for the month. This is 16% below the 64 sales in June 2017 and it is 14% below the number of new sales last month (63). The Petaluma market currently has 1.5 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 55 homes that closed in June was $715,000. This is 2% ahead of the median price last June ($699,000). The Days on Market for the 55 homes that closed in June was 42 days.
Rohnert Park: For over the past year and a half, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park have outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. I keep saying this can’t go on forever, but so far it has. There were 38 new sales in June compared to 31 last month and 35 in June 2017. The inventory began the month at 21 homes and ended the month at 32 homes. There is 0.8 month’s supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Thirty-two homes is the highest inventory in Rohnert Park since July 2016. The median price ($553,000) of the 20 homes and condominiums that closed in June is 1% higher than the median price a year ago ($533,000). In June 2011, the median price was $251,000. The Days on Market for the 20 homes that closed in June was 44 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June (62) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 10% below the level of June 2017 (69) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (61). There were 27 new sales for the month of June. This sales pace is down 27% from the pace in June 2017 (37) and it is 13% ahead of the pace last month (34). The Russian River market continues to be strong. There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $540,000 for the 25 homes that closed in June. This is 28% ahead of the median price in June 2017 ($421,000). The Days on Market for the 25 homes that closed in June was 62 days.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of June (417) is 56% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (268) and it is 53% ahead of the inventory last month (272). This is the highest inventory in Santa Rosa for any month since December 2011 – seven years ago at the end of the recession. This might be a signal of a shifting market. New sales in June (178) are 10% below the pace of last June (197) and they are about equal to the pace last month (180). There is a 2.3 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 172 homes closed in June in Santa Rosa was $600,000 compared to $550,000 a year ago – a 9% increase. The Days on Market for the 172 homes that closed in June was 43 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Sebastopol (80) is 54% ahead of the level of June 2017 (52) and it is 29% ahead of the inventory last month (62). This is the highest inventory in Sebastopol since August 2012. There were 27 new sales for the month of June. This is 17% below the pace in June 2017 (23) and it is 8% ahead of the pace last month (24). There is a three months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 59 homes that closed in Sebastopol in June went from listing to pending in 30 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (103) at the end of June in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) fell slightly. The inventory is 2% below the inventory of last month (105) and it is 22% below the inventory last June (132). There were 44 new sales for the month. This is 6% below the pace of sales in June 2017 (47) and it is 15% below the pace of last month (54). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. Seventy percent of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 36% of the new sales (16) in June were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of June starts at $3,500,000. Sixteen homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 10 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 27 homes available in this quartile in June compared to 23 a year ago. There were three new sales in the top quartile in June. There is a nine months supply of inventory in this quartile based on the current sales pace.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of June equals 51 properties. This is 42% ahead of the inventory in June 2017 (36) and it is 19% ahead of the 43 homes last month. This is the highest level of inventory in Windsor since February 2012. There were 26 new sales for the month. This is 28% below the pace of sales in June 2017 (30) and it is 18% ahead of the pace of last month (25). There is a two months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 21 homes that closed in June in Windsor was 38 days. The median price ($675,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in June is 11% higher than the median price a year ago ($610,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of June (388) continued to climb. The inventory is 10% ahead of the inventory last month (352) and it is 12% ahead of the inventory in June 2017 (346). This is the highest inventory since October 2015 – nearly three years ago. New sales (137) were 3% below the pace of last year (141) and 13% ahead of the pace of last month (127). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 44 days. The DOM has been averaging 70-80 days, so this is a surprising drop. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 115 homes closed in June in Napa County ($709,000) was 9% higher than the median price of a year ago ($650,000). It is a new historic high median price for Napa County outstripping the $678,000 median recorded in December 2017.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,300,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (61) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County for the period 7/1/17 to 6/30/18 is slightly below the number for the period 7/1/16 to 6/30/17 (64). There were 99 luxury homes in inventory at the end of June 2018 compared to 88 at the end of June 2017. There were eight new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 12.4 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.8 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 24 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of June in American Canyon. This is 26% ahead of the inventory a year ago (19) and it is 20% ahead of the supply last month (20). New sales (13) were 19% below the pace of June 2017 (16) and they were slightly ahead the pace of last month (11). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 31 days. This is a very quick selling cycle. The median price of the 9 homes that closed in American Canyon in June ($520,000) was 5% below the median price of a year ago ($545,000). The median price in June 2012 was $277,000.
Napa: Fifty two percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There were 201 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of June in the City of Napa. This is a 9% jump from the inventory at the end of last month (185). It is 13% ahead of the supply at the end of June 2017 (178). New sales (97) were 3% below the pace of June 2017 (100) and they were 12% ahead of the pace of last month (92). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 94 homes that closed in the City of Napa in June was $716,000. This is 7% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in June 2017 ($668,000) and it is just slightly below the all time high median price for homes closed in any month – $720,000 in February of this year.
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of June (133) is 14% ahead of the level of 117 in June 2017 and it is 12% ahead of the level last month (119). This is the highest inventory in the Up Valley since July of 2016. There were 21 new sales in the month compared to 16 a year ago and 18 last month. There is now a 6.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There were only 7 closings in the Up Valley Market last month. The Days on Market for those closings was 31 days. Approximately 53% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (53 homes). There were no new luxury home (price in excess of $2,300,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month. This is out of six total luxury closings for the County.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Angwin (20) is 9% below the level of June 2017 (22) and it is equal to the inventory last month (20). There were three new sales for the month of June compared to none last month and five in June of 1017. There is a 6.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average asking price of the 20 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,623,000 and the average price of the six homes that sold in Angwin in the past three months is $556,000.
Congratulations: Congratulations to our top producers for the 2nd quarter of 2018:
Santa Rosa: Mari Giblin for Units Sold, Dollar Volume and Listings
Sebastopol: Liz Uribe for Units Sold, Dollar Volume and Listings
Sonoma: Sheila Deignan for Units Sold, Dollar Volume and Listings
St. Helena: Rianne Pasquariello for Units Sold
Linda Alioto for Unit Dollar Volume and Listings