Wine Country Real Estate Trends in March 2017
Sonoma County: New sales increased faster than new inventory in Sonoma County for the third month in a row. The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County rose to 577 is up 16.6% from the inventory last month (495) and is 4% below the inventory in March 2016 (599). New sales (443) in March jumped 32% ahead of the pace of last month (336) and were 6.5% below the pace of March 2016 (474). There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 38 to 100 days. The average for the County as a whole is 67 days. The median price of homes closed in March in Sonoma County was $607,000. This is a 14% increase over the median price in March 2016 ($532,000). This is the first time that median price has exceeded $600,000 and the current median price is 3% above the peak median price for the County ($589,000) recorded in June 2005.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,600,000). Last month, the top quartile began at $1,300,000, so the higher priced homes that were taken off of the market over the holidays are coming back on the market. There has been a 9% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (184) from 4/1/16 to 3/31/17 compared to 169 from 4/1/15 to 3/31/16. The pace of new sales (13) in March this year was equal to the pace of a year ago. There were 141 luxury properties in inventory at the end of March compared to 106 last month and 117 a year ago. The Days on Market for Luxury Home sales was 148 days this March compared to 104 days a year ago. This compares to 67 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in March. There is a 10.8 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.3 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. On a statistical basis, it continues to be a “Buyers Market” in the high end.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (19) in Cloverdale at the end of March was 13% ahead of the 17 homes in inventory in March 2016 and it was 37% ahead of the 14 homes last month. There were 19 new sales in Cloverdale in March. This is equal to the 19 sales in March 2016 and 46% ahead of the new sales last month (13). There is just a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of March (26) was 18% ahead of the inventory a year ago (22) and 13% ahead of the inventory last month (23). There were 6 new home sales for the month of March compared to 5 a year ago and 3 last month. There is a 4.3 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.
Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Healdsburg at the end of March (72) was 22% ahead of the inventory in March 2016 (59) and was 33% ahead of the inventory last month (54). This continues to be a relatively high level of seasonal inventory for Healdsburg. There were only 9 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 57% below the 21 sales in March 2016 and it is 47% behind the pace last month (17). The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 8 months – a relatively high number in the Wine Country. We’ll see if sales pick up in Healdsburg in the next couple of months.
Oakmont: There were 12 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of March. This is 37% lower than in March 2016 (19) and also 37% below the inventory last month (19). There were 19 new sales for the month. This is 30% below the sales pace of a year ago (27) and 58% ahead of the pace of last month (13). There is a 0.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The community clearly needs inventory. The median price for homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the mid-$500’s up to $675,000. The median price was $640,000 for the 15 closings last month.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of March 49) is slightly ahead of the inventory in March 2016 (48) and it is 14% ahead of the inventory last month (43). There were 58 new sales for the month. This is slightly below the number of new sales in March 2016 (60) and is 9% ahead of the 53 sales last month. The Petaluma market has been volatile and currently has just 0.8 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 66 homes that closed in March was $678,000. This is 7% higher than the median last March ($634,000).
Rohnert Park and Cotati: Once again, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park-Cotati outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. The sales pace jumped up in March. There were 41 new sales in March compared to 28 last month and 64 in March 2016. Inventory began the month at 15 homes and ended the month at 17 homes. There is just a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This is an extremely low level of inventory for Rohnert Park/Cotati. The median price ($495,000) of the 27 homes closed in March was 9% higher than the median price a year ago ($455,000). In March 2009, the median price was $250,000.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of March (180) was 7% below the inventory of a year ago (193) and was 4% ahead of the inventory last month (173). New sales in March (191) were 46% ahead of the pace of last month (131) and they were 3% below the pace of last March (197). There is only a 0.9 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 146 homes closed in March in Santa Rosa was $528,000 compared to $506,000 a year ago – a 4.5% increase. The median has ranged from $475,000 to $540,000 over the past twelve months.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March (39) was 8% higher than the level of March 2016 (36) and it was 44% higher than the inventory last month (27). There were 22 new sales for the month of March. This is about equal to the pace in March 2016 (20) and 120% ahead of the pace last month (10). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (92) at the end of March in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) was about equal to the inventory in March 2016 (95) and it was 26% ahead of the inventory of last month (73). There were 53 new sales for the month. This is 32.5% ahead of the pace of sales in March 2016 (40) and it is 36% ahead of the pace of last month (39). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 56% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above while 30% of the new sales (16) were priced at $1,000,000 or more. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of March started at $2,700,000. Last month, the top quartile started at $1,900,000, so a lot of higher priced inventory came on or back on the market in March. 17 homes sold in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 23 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 23 homes available in this quartile in March compared to 19 a year ago. There is a 23 months supply of inventory based on there only being one sale in this price range in March. We expect high-end sales to pick up in the coming months, but it’s a slow go right now.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of March (17) remains very low. It is 49% below the inventory in March 2016 (32) and it is about equal to the 16 homes last month. There were 14 new sales in Windsor in March. This is 37% lower than the sales in March 2016 (22) and 39% lower than the 23 sales last month. There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 25 sales that closed in March in Windsor was $550,000. This is equal to the median price ($550,000) of the homes closed last March.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of March (270) is 8.5% below the inventory in March 2016 (295) and it is 13% higher than the inventory last month (238). New sales (131) were 12% ahead of the pace last year (117) and 36.5% ahead of the pace of last month (96). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently ranging between 60 to 85 days depending on price and location. The median price of the 124 homes closed in March in Napa County ($662,000) was 12% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($592,000). The median has generally ranged between $580,000 and $650,000 over the past year. The current median price remains 2% below the peak median price for the County ($675,000) recorded in June 2006 so, as in Sonoma County and south through Marin into San Francisco and the Peninsula, most of the home equity lost in the recession (2007 to 2011) has been regained.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,000,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (81) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,000,000) in Napa County is 25% ahead for the period 4/1/16 to 3/31/17 compared to 4/1/15 to 3/31/16 (65 homes). There were 66 luxury homes in inventory at the end of March 2017 compared to 81 at the end of March 2016. There were 8 Luxury Home closings last month resulting in a 7.5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.1 months supply for the County as a whole.
Napa: There were 152 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in the City of Napa. This is 4% lower than the inventory a year ago (159) and it is 9% higher than the supply last month (140). New sales (92) were about equal to the pace of March 2016 (89) and they were 31% ahead of the pace of last month (70). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 92 homes that closed in Napa in March was $675,000. This is 19% above the median price of the homes closed in March 2016 ($568,000). The median price is 4% above the peak median price in the City of Napa ($650,000) recorded in March 2006.
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of March 2017 (84) was 12.5% below the level of 96 in March 2016 and it was 22% ahead of the level last month (69). There were 14 new sales for the month compared to 16 a year ago and 13 last month. It appears some of the homes taken off the market over the holidays remain on the sidelines. There is now a 6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 14 closings last month was 79 days. Approximately 60% of the Luxury Market (price in excess of $2,000,000) inventory in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (40 homes).