Wine Country Real Estate Trends in March 2018

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for March 2018

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 33 closings in March 2018 compared to 27 last month. In March, we closed homes with a total value of $23.1 million compared to $21.5 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in March was $700,757.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 75 pending sales with a value of $52 million dollars. We have 58 active listings with a value of $74 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,276,000.

TOP PRODUCERS for the First Quarter of 2018: Congratulations to these Top Producers for BHGRE|WCG in the First Quarter of 2018:

Santa Rosa Office:   Tops in Units Sold: Tie:  Mari Giblin and Heather Thurber                                                  Tops in Dollar Volume Sold:  Heather Thurber                                                                         Tops in New Listings:  Mari Giblin

Sebastopol Office (includes Bodega Bay):   Tops in Units Sold, Dollar Volume and New Listings:  Laurie Parris

Sonoma Office:   Tops in Units Sold, Dollar Volume and New Listings:                                                                                   Sheila Deignan

 St. Helena Office:  Tops in Units Sold:  Liz Manfree                                                                  Tops in Dollar Volume Sold:  Rianne Pasquariello                                                                   Tops in New Listings:  Linda Alioto

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for March 2018:

Lot Listings After the Fires: Over 5,000 structures burned in Sonoma and Napa Counties in the October, 2017 fires. We’re seeing many lots coming on the market. In November 2017, 21 lots came on the market in Wine Country (Sonoma and Napa Counties). At the end of March, there were 402 vacant lots on the market – the vast majority being from the fires. There were 87 new sales in March leaving a 4.8 months supply of inventory based on this sales pace. 88 lots closed in March with a median sales price of $270,000, up from $230,000 last month.

We expect that many more fire damaged lots will continue to come on the market in the coming months and it will be interesting to track the values as properties begin to close escrow. For now, we are estimating that these lots are being offered at 60% of what might have been their value before the fires. The complications of clearing, permitting and building on these sites remain high.

Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of March stands at 577. This is equal to the inventory in March 2017 and it is up 11% from the inventory last month (518). New sales (451) in March were 8% ahead of the pace of March 2017 (419) and they were 40% ahead of last month (323). There is just a 1.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 28 (Oakmont) to 127 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 46 days. This is the lowest Days on Market figure for the County in recent memory. The median price of homes closed in March in Sonoma County was $664,000.  This is an 11% increase over the median price in March 2017 ($600,000). $664,000 represents a new high median price in the County. We expect that the loss of homes in the fires will continue to put upwards pressure on prices in most locations throughout the County over the next three of four months, and then in may become less of an impact.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,500,000). There has been a 23% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (261) from 4/1/17 to 3/31/18 compared to 213 from 4/1/16 to 3/31/17. The inventory of luxury homes (139) is 10% below the inventory in March 2017 (154 homes). The pace of new sales (29) in March this year was 107% ahead of the pace of a year ago (14) and was 32% ahead of the pace last month (22). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 80 days this March compared to 141 days a year ago. This compares to 46 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in March. There is a 4.8 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.3 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Again, the purchase of replacement homes by those who lost homes in the fires is contributing to this strong activity in the top quartile.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (17) in Cloverdale at the end of March is 14% below the 19 homes in inventory in March last year and it is about equal to the 16 homes last month. There were 15 new sales in Cloverdale in March. This compares to 19 sales in March 2017 and 14 new sales last month. There is a 1.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 homes that closed in March was 52 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There were just 13 homes available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This remains a very low inventory for this market. This is 50% below the inventory (26) a year ago and it is slightly above the inventory last month (11). There was just one new home sale for the month of March compared to 4 a year ago and 9 last month.  There is now a 13 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.4 months supply last month. The Days on Market for the 5 homes that closed in March was 127 days. We expect to see more listings and sales in Coastal Sonoma in the coming months.

Healdsburg Trends:  There were 49 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 32% below the inventory in March 2017 (72) and it is 17% ahead of the inventory last month (42). There were 17 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 89% ahead of the number of sales in March 2017 (9) (that was an abnormally low number) and it is equal to the pace last month. The months of available inventory is 2.9 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in March was 87 days.

Oakmont:  There were 21 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of March. This is 75% ahead of the inventory in March 2017 (12) and it is 17% ahead of the inventory last month (18). New sales (23) in Oakmont remained high on a relative basis. Sales were 21% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (19) and 44% ahead of the pace of last month (16). There is just a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $832,000 for the 14 homes that closed in March. This creates a new high median price for closings for any month for the Oakmont market. The Days on Market for the 14 homes that closed in March was just 28 days.

Petaluma:  Sales soared in March in Petaluma. There were 69 new sales for the month. This is 97% ahead of the number of new sales last month (36) and it is 23% ahead of the 56 sales in March 2017. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of March (48) is about equal to the inventory in March 2017 (49) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (50). The Petaluma market currently has 0.7 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace making it the tightest market in Wine Country. The median price of the 39 homes that closed in March was $795,000. This is 18% ahead of the median price last March ($675,000) and it is the highest median price for closed sales that we have ever recorded in Petaluma. The Days on Market for the 39 homes that closed in March was 37 days.

Rohnert Park:  For the past year and a half, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park have outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. There were 22 new sales in March compared to 20 last month and 32 in March 2017. The inventory began the month at 12 homes and ended the month at 21 homes. This indicates a bit of a slowdown in this market and we’ll see if that trend continues and breaks that streak of sales exceeding inventory each month. There is a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 0.5 months supply last month. The median price ($556,000) of the 20 homes closed in March was 19.5% higher than the median price a year ago ($465,000). In March 2011, the median price was $233,000. The Days on Market for the 20 homes that closed in March was 34 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March (38) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 65% ahead of the level of March 2017 (23) and it is 23% ahead of the inventory last month (31). There were 16 new sales for the month of March. This sales pace is down slightly from the pace in March 2017 (18) and it is 60% ahead of the pace last month (10). There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $430,000 for the 17 homes that closed in March. In March 2009, the median price was $190,000. The Days on Market for the 17 homes that closed in March was 73 days.

Santa Rosa:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of March (194) is 8% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (180) and it is 17% ahead of the inventory last month (166). New sales in March (186) are 6% ahead of the pace of last March (176) and they are 30% ahead of the pace last month (143). There is a one months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 148 homes closed in March in Santa Rosa was $653,000 compared to $525,000 a year ago – a 24% increase and the highest median price recorded for any month for closings in Santa Rosa. The Days on Market for the 148 homes that closed in March was 42 days.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Sebastopol (40) is essentially equal to the level of March 2017 (39) and it is 9% below the inventory last month (44). There were 23 new sales for the month of March. This is essentially equal to the pace in March 2017 (22) and it is 53% ahead of the pace last month (15). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 15 homes that closed in Sebastopol in March went from listing to pending in 42 days – a relatively short time for the Sebastopol market.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (85) at the end of March in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) continued to rise. The inventory is 10% ahead of the inventory of last month (77) and it is 8% below the inventory last March (92). There were 47 new sales for the month. This is 8% lower than the pace of sales in March 2017 (51) and it is s healthy 52% ahead of the pace of last month (31). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 61% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 43% of the new sales (20) in March were priced at over $1,000,000. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of March started at $2,700,000. Twenty-three homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 17 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 22 homes available in this quartile in March compared to 24 a year ago. There were five new sales in the top quartile in March resulting in a 4.4 months supply of inventory in the top quartile based upon the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 32 homes that closed in March in the Sonoma market was 48 days.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of March equals 27 properties. This is 59% ahead of the inventory in March 2017 (17) and it is 18% below the 33 homes last month. There were 32 new sales for the month. This is 127% ahead of the pace of sales in March 2017 (14) and it is 78% ahead of the pace of last month (18). There is a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 27 homes closed in March in Windsor was 29 days. The median price ($680,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in March is 23% higher than the median price a year ago ($554,000).

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of March (248) is 8% below the inventory in March 2017 (270) and it is 23% ahead of the inventory last month (202). New sales (114) were 3% below the pace of last year (118) and 21% ahead of the pace of last month (94). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 70 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 93 homes closed in March in Napa County ($635,000) was 4% lower than the median price of a year ago ($660,000). It was 6% below the historic high median price ($678,000) in December 2017.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,200,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (62) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,200,000) in Napa County is 17% lower for the period 4/1/17 to 3/31/18 compared to 75 from 4/1/16 to 3/31/17. There were 61 luxury homes in inventory at the end of March 2018 compared to 64 at the end of March 2017. There were three new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 20.3 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.2 months supply for the County as a whole. We expect to see more Luxury Home sales in the coming months.

American Canyon:  There were 19 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in American Canyon. This is 46% ahead of the inventory a year ago (13) and it is about equal to the supply last month (17). New sales (16) were 33% ahead of the pace of March 2017 (12) and they were 23% ahead of the pace of last month (13). There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in American Canyon is currently 62 days. The median price of the 8 homes that closed in American Canyon in March ($525,000) was 2% higher than the median price of a year ago ($515,000). The median price in March 2010 was $305,000.

Napa:  There were 128 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of March in the City of Napa. This is 16% lower than the inventory a year ago (152) and it is 18.5% ahead of the supply last month (108). New sales (74) were 10% below the pace of March 2017 (82) and they were 16% ahead of the pace of last month (64). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 61 homes that closed in the City of Napa in March was $674,000. This is 2% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in March 2017 ($660,000) and just a bit below the all time high median price ($685,000) recorded in December 2017. The city of Napa remains a hot market.

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of March (77) is 8% below the level of 84 in March 2017 and it is 28% ahead of the level last month (60). There were 18 new sales in the month compared to 13 a year ago and 10 last month. As anticipated, sales rebounded from a loll over the past four months. There is now a 4.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 13 closings last month was 124 days. Approximately 56% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,200,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (34 homes). There was one new luxury home (price in excess of $2,200,000) sale and one luxury closing in the Up Valley Market last month. That represents 34 months of inventory based on the current sales pace.