Wine Country Real Estate Trends in May 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for May 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 38 closings in May 2018 compared to 52 last month and 49 last May. On a year to date basis, we are ahead 9% for units closed comparing 2018 to 2017. In May, we closed homes with a total value of $24 million compared to $29 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in May was $620,684.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 50 pending sales with a value of $33 million dollars. We have 56 active listings with a value of $50 million dollars. Our average listing price is $892,857.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for May 2018:
Lot Listings After the Fires: Over 5,000 structures burned in Sonoma and Napa Counties in the October, 2017 fires. We’re continuing to see lots coming on the market. At the end of May, there were 487 vacant lots on the market – the vast majority being from the fires. This is an increase of 67% from the inventory in May 2017 (291). There were 67 new sales in May 2018. This is a 219% increase from the 21 new sales in May 2017. There is a 7.3 months supply of inventory based on this sales pace. 52 lots closed in May with a median sales price of $275,000. This compares to $270,000 in March and $250,000 last month.
We expect that many more fire damaged lots will continue to come on the market in the coming months and it will be interesting to track the values as properties begin to close escrow. For now, we are estimating that these lots are being offered at 60% of what might have been their value before the fires. The complications of clearing, permitting and building on these sites remain high.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of May stands at 807. This is 4% ahead of the inventory in May 2017 (774) and it is up 12% from the inventory last month (723). New sales (494) in May were 6% below the pace of May 2017 (524) and they were 11% ahead of last month (445). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 34 (Rohnert Park) to 104 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 45 days. This remains a low “Days on Market figure” for the County. The median price of homes closed in May in Sonoma County was $659,000. This is a 12% increase over the median price in May 2017 ($590,000). We expect this number to settle back to 8% to 10% through the balance of the year. The influence of fire victims purchasing replacement homes is easing. We think that it’s possible that this phenomenon may reoccur in December early next year as those who leased homes after the fires may look to purchase homes as their leases come up.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,300,000). There has been a 43% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (438) from 6/1/17 to 5/31/18 compared to 307 from 6/1/16 to 5/31/17. The inventory of luxury homes (210) is 12.5% below the inventory in May 2017 (240 homes). The pace of new sales (59) in May this year was 64% ahead of the pace of a year ago (36) and was 41% ahead of the pace last month (42). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 72 days this May compared to 64 days a year ago. This compares to 45 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in May. There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 5.8 months supply last month and a 1.6 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. We believe that the purchase of replacement homes by those who lost homes in the fires is continuing to contribute to this strong activity in the top quartile.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (28) in Cloverdale at the end of May jumped up 47% from the 19 homes in inventory last month. It is also 55% ahead of the 18 homes in inventory in May of last year. There were 15 new sales in Cloverdale in May. This compares to 16 sales in May 2017 and 16 new sales last month. There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 18 homes that closed in May was 58 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There were 20 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 36% below the inventory (31) a year ago and it is 9% below the inventory last month (22). There were 7 new sales in may compared to 6 a year ago and 7 last month. There is now a 2.9 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 3 homes that closed in May was 104 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 79 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 21% below the inventory in May 2017 (100) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (75). The sales spigot opened for Healdsburg last month. There were 32 new sales compared to 15 last month (an increase of 113%). Sales were also 52% ahead of the sales in May 2017 (21). This looks to me like the highest single month of new sales for Healdsburg since at least 2000. The months of available inventory is now 2.5 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 120 homes that closed in May was just 35 days.
Oakmont: There were 22 homes and condominiums in inventory in Oakmont at the end of May. This is 47% ahead of the inventory in May 2017 (15) and it is about equal to the inventory last month (23). New sales (13) in Oakmont were 35% below the sales pace of a year ago (20) and 48% below the pace of last month (25). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $730,000 for the 21 homes that closed in May. The Days on Market for the 21 homes that closed in May was 45 days.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of May (70) is 15% ahead of the inventory in May 2017 (61) and it is 19% ahead of the inventory last month (59). There were 63 new sales for the month. This is 10% below the 70 sales in May 2017 and it is 5% ahead of the number of new sales last month (60). The Petaluma market currently has 1.1 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 59 homes that closed in May was $790,000. This is 9% ahead of the median price last May ($724,000). The Days on Market for the 59 homes that closed in May was 41 days.
Rohnert Park: For over the past year and a half, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park have outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. I keep saying this can’t go on forever, but so far it has. There were 31 new sales in May compared to 36 last month and 36 in May 2017. The inventory began the month at 18 homes and ended the month at 21 homes. There is a 0.7 month’s supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($538,000) of the 30 homes and condominiums that closed in May is 5.5% higher than the median price a year ago ($510,000). In May 2011, the median price was $242,000. The Days on Market for the 30 homes that closed in May was 34 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May (61) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 30% ahead of the level of May 2017 (47) and it is 25% ahead of the inventory last month (49). There were 34 new sales for the month of May. This sales pace is up 48% from the pace in May 2017 (23) and it is 17% ahead of the pace last month (29). The Russian River market continues to be strong. There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $578,000 for the 28 homes that closed in May. This is likely the highest median price recorded for any month in the Russian River. In May 2011, the median price was $132,000 for the eight homes sold that month. The Days on Market for the 28 homes that closed in May was 42 days.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of May (272) is 22% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (223) and it is 9% ahead of the inventory last month (250). New sales in May (187) are 21% below the pace of last May (236) and they are 12% ahead of the pace last month (167). There is a 1.5 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 174 homes closed in May in Santa Rosa was $615,000 compared to $534,000 a year ago – a 15% increase. The Days on Market for the 174 homes that closed in May was 40 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Sebastopol (62) is 29% ahead of the level of May 2017 (48) and it is 24% ahead of the inventory last month (50). There were 24 new sales for the month of May. This is 8% below the pace in May 2017 (26) and it is 14% ahead of the pace last month (21). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 15 homes that closed in Sebastopol in May went from listing to pending in 59 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (105) at the end of May in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) continued to rise. The inventory is 6% ahead of the inventory of last month (99) and it is12.5% below the inventory last May (120). There were 54 new sales for the month. This is 50% ahead of the pace of sales in May 2017 (36) and it is 26% ahead of the pace of last month (43). There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 65% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 48% of the new sales (26) in May were priced at over $1,000,000. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of May started at $3,000,000. Nineteen homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 15 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 26 homes available in this quartile in May compared to 25 a year ago. There were four new sales in the top quartile in May. The Days on Market for the 45 homes that closed in May in the Sonoma market was 65 days.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of May equals 43 properties. This is 13% ahead of the inventory in May 2017 (38) and it is 30% ahead of the 33 homes last month. There were 25 new sales for the month. This is 17% below the pace of sales in May 2017 (30) and it is 24% below the pace of last month (33). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 31 homes that closed in May in Windsor was 37 days. The median price ($690,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in May is 13% higher than the median price a year ago ($610,000) and it is the highest median price ever recorded for any month in Windsor.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of May (352) had a nice jump ahead from the inventory last month. The inventory is 32% ahead of the inventory last month (267) and it is 10% ahead of the inventory in May 2017 (319). This compares to a 12% increase in inventory in Sonoma County and a 10% increase in inventory in Marin Country. Perhaps, we had a late start to the traditional Spring market in Napa. New sales (127) were 13% below the pace of last year (146) and 8.5% ahead of the pace of last month (117). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 51 days. The DOM has been averaging 70-80 days, so this is a surprising drop. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 117 homes closed in May in Napa County ($675,000) was 6% higher than the median price of a year ago ($635,000). It was slightly below the historic high median price ($678,000) in December 2017.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,500,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (52) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,500,000) in Napa County for the period 6/1/17 to 5/31/18 is essentially equal to the number for the period 6/1/17 to 5/31/18 (53). There were 83 luxury homes in inventory at the end of May 2018 compared to 70 at the end of May 2017. There was a jump of 27% from the 65 homes in inventory at the end of last month. There were nine new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 9.2 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.8 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 20 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in American Canyon. This is essentially equal to the inventory a year ago (19) and it is slightly ahead of the supply last month (18). New sales (11) were 35% below the pace of May 2017 (17) and they were essentially equal to the pace of last month (10). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 34 days. This is a very quick selling cycle. The median price of the 12 homes that closed in American Canyon in May ($465,000) was 10% below the median price of a year ago ($515,000). The median price in May 2011 was $292,000.
Napa: Fifty three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There were 185 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of May in the City of Napa. This is a 38% jump from the inventory at the end of last month (134). It is 8% ahead of the supply at the end of May 2017 (172). New sales (92) were 7% below the pace of May 2017 (99) and they were 14% ahead of the pace of last month (81). There is a 2.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 77 homes that closed in the City of Napa in May was $700,000. This is 11% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in May 2017 ($633,000) and it is now the all time high median price for homes closed in any month in the City of Napa.
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of May (119) is 24% ahead of the level of 96 in May 2017 and it is 28% ahead of the level last month (93). There were 18 new sales in the month compared to 28 a year ago and 19 last month. There is now a 6.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 21 closings last month was 67 days. Approximately 54% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,500,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (45 homes). There were four new luxury home (price in excess of $2,500,000) sales in the Up Valley Market last month. This is out of nine total luxury sales for the County.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of May in Angwin (20) is 18% ahead of the level of May 2017 (17) and it is 67% ahead of the inventory last month (12). There were no new sales for the month of May. There were 3 closings in the month in Angwin and they went from listing to pending in 118 days. The average asking price of the 20 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,852,000 and the average price of the seven homes that have sold in Angwin in the past three months is $562,000.