Wine Country Real Estate Trends in November 2018
Acknowledgement:
I’d like to acknowledge my wife, Diane Krause, who passed from this life to her next on November 22, 2018. Diane was a Realtor in Wine Country for over 36 years – and she loved the business. She was always generous in helping others learn the profession. She was always supportive of my efforts and activities and I will miss her daily presence. I’d also like to acknowledge Ted Chris, the husband of Sherry Chris, President and CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate. Ted passed away on December 3, 2018. As with Diane, Ted gave Sherry his unconditional support as she worked tirelessly to grow Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate. We will mourn our losses together along with many others who knew and loved Diane and Ted.
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for November 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 31 closings in November 2018 compared to 38 last month and 65 last November. On a year to date basis, we are reflecting the overall market and are about 9% behind in units closed comparing 2018 to 2017. In November, we closed homes with a total value of $22 million compared to $20 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in November was $706,939.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 37 pending sales with a value of $42 million dollars. We have 65 active listings with a value of $50 million dollars. Our average listing price is $781,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for November 2018:
Market Comparisons to November 2017
The wildfires across Wine Country occurred in early October of last year. A good number of homes were removed from the market in later October 2017 as folks tried to figure out the impact of the fires. Thus, the inventory of available homes was unseasonably low for the last three months of last year. Some of the percentages are quite high comparing this year to last and that is partly driven by the fires last year.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of November stands at 1,018. This is 90% ahead of the inventory in November 2017 (535) and it is down 12% from the inventory last month (1,160). This remains a relatively high inventory for recent years but not an unreasonably high number for historical purposes. When I first started operating in the Wine Country in 1996, we had over 3,000 homes available in Sonoma County. New sales (346) in Sonoma County in November were 8% below the pace of November 2017 (377) and they were 17% below the pace last month (415). There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 45 (Petaluma) to 139 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 63 days (the highest in the past twelve months). The median price of homes closed in November in Sonoma County was $599,000. This is a 3.5% decrease from the median price in November 2017 ($620,000). As we expected, the appreciation rate has settled down from the 12% year over year increase in the first part of the year. We’ll continue to watch to see if the rate of appreciation continues to decline.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,100,000). There has been an 18% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (656) from 12/1/17 to 11/30/18 compared to 558 closings in the period 12/1/16 to 11/30/17. The inventory of luxury homes (249) is 14% above the inventory in November 2017 (219 homes). The pace of new sales (47) in November this year is 23% below the pace of a year ago (61) and it is 6% below the pace last month (50). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 84 days this November compared to 100 days a year ago. This compares to 63 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in November. There is a 5.3 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.9 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (37) in Cloverdale at the end of November is 76% ahead of the inventory in November of 2017 (21). It is 20% below the inventory of last month (46). There were 11 new sales in Cloverdale in November. This compares to 9 sales in November 2017 and 12 new sales last month. There is a 3.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 6 homes that closed in November was 76 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There were 22 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 21% below the inventory (28) a year ago and it is 12% below the inventory last month (25). There were 5 new sales in November compared to 10 a year ago and 4 last month. There is now a 4.4 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. There were 5 closings in the month. There were six closings a month ago. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 139 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 84 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 27% above the inventory in November 2017 (66) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (86). New sales in November (9) were 57% below the pace of sales in November 2017 (21) and they were 43% below the sales pace last month (16). The months of available inventory is now 9.3 months based on the current sales pace. This definitely speaks of a buyer’s market in Healdsburg. The Days on Market for the 9 homes that closed in November was 89 days.
Oakmont: Inventory remained high in Oakmont at the end of November. There were 48 homes available. This is 336% ahead of the inventory in November 2017 (11) and it is 7% above the inventory last month (45). New sales (12) are 9% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (11) and are 20% below the pace of last month (15). There is a 4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $672,000 for the 10 homes that closed in November. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 77 days.
Petaluma: The inventory in Petaluma at the end of November (64) is 68% ahead of the inventory in November 2017 (38) and it is 23% below the inventory last month (83). There were 37 new sales for the month. This is slightly ahead of the 35 sales in November 2017 and it is 25% below the number of new sales last month (49). The Petaluma market currently has 1.7 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. Petaluma remains one of the tightest markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 45 homes that closed in November was $690,000. This is 5% below the median price last November ($730,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 45 days.
Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of November (57) is 339% ahead of the inventory in November 2017 (13) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (61). There were 21 new sales in Rohnert Park in November. This is 40% below the number of sales in November 2017 (35) and it is 43% below the sales pace last month (37). There is 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The surge of sales in Rohnert Park may be ending. The median price ($543,000) of the 32 homes and condominiums that closed in November is 16% higher than the median price a year ago ($470,000). In November 2010, the median price was $210,000. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 49 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November (60) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 46% ahead of the level of November 2017 (41) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (69). There were 15 new sales for the month of November. This sales pace is 6% below the pace in November 2017 (16) and it is 21% below the pace last month (19). There is a 4 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $470,000 for the 18 homes that closed in November. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 64 days.
Santa Rosa: Forty percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of November (407) is 208% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (132) and it is 14% below the inventory last month (471). New sales in November (159) are about equal to the pace of last November (157) and they are 9% below the pace last month (175). There is a 2.6 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 157 homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $565,000 compared to $590,000 a year ago – a 4% decrease. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in November was 64 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Sebastopol (57) is 46% ahead of the level of November 2017 (39) and it is 20% below the inventory last month (71). There were 24 new sales for the month of November. This is 26% ahead of the pace in November 2017 (19) and it is equal to the pace last month (23). There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 16 homes that closed in Sebastopol in November went from listing to pending in 77 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (103) at the end of November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 10% above the inventory last November (94) and it is 25% below the inventory of last month (137). There were 29 new sales for the month. This is 26% below the pace of sales in November 2017 (39) and it is 15% below the pace of last month (34). There is a 3.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. Fifty-eight percent (60 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 28% of the new sales (8) in November were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of November starts at $3,000,000. 22 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 13 in the twelve months prior to that. There are 25 homes available in this quartile in November 2018 compared to 17 a year ago. There were no new sales in the top quartile in November creating a 25 months supply of inventory in this quartile based on the current sales pace. The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price of roughly $1,000 per square foot of building area.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of November equals 53 properties. This is 279% ahead of the inventory in November 2017 (14) and it is 15% ahead of the 46 homes last month. This may be the only market in Wine Country where inventory increased on a month over month basis. There were 24 new sales for the month. This is 20% above the pace of sales in November 2017 (20) and it is essentially equal to the pace of last month (23). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 19 homes that closed in November in Windsor was 48 days. The median price ($620,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in November is 3.5% higher than the median price a year ago ($599,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of November (364) is 21% ahead of the inventory in November 2017 (300) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (417). New sales (88) are 15% below the pace of last year (104) and are 25% below the pace of last month (117). There is a 4.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 71 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 100 homes closed in November in Napa County ($684,000) was 4.4% higher than the median price of a year ago ($655,000). 43% of the inventory in Napa County (157 properties) are priced at $1,000,000 or above.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $1,900,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (107) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,900,000) in Napa County for the period 12/1/17 to 11/30/18 compared to 81 closings in the period 12/1/16 to 11/30/17. There were 92 luxury homes in inventory at the end of November 2018 compared to 92 at the end of November 2017. There were 10 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 9.2 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 4.1 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 26 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in American Canyon. This is 30% ahead of the inventory a year ago (20) and it is 21% below the supply last month (33). New sales (12) were 25% below the pace of November 2017 (16) and they were slightly below the pace of last month (13). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 55 days. The median price of the 9 homes that closed in American Canyon in November ($557,000) was 34% higher than the median price of a year ago ($417,000). The median price in November 2011 was $240,000.
Napa: Sixty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There were 231 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in the City of Napa. This is a 35% ahead of the supply at the end of November 2017 (171) and it is 7% below the inventory at the end of last month (248). New sales (60) were 25% below the pace of November 2017 (80) and they were 26% below the pace of last month (81). There is a 3.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 70 closings last month was 62 days. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in November was $658,000. This is 1% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in November 2017 ($649,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of November (98) is equal to the level of 97 in November 2017 and it is 23% below the level last month (127). There were 16 new sales in the month compared to 8 a year ago and 23 last month. There is now a 6.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 20 closings last month was 109 days. Approximately 51% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $1,900,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (47 homes). There were four luxury home (price in excess of $1,900,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and four new luxury home sales.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November in Angwin (10) is 38% below the level of November 2017 (16) and it is 33% below the inventory last month (15). There were three new sales for the month of November compared to four last month and one in November of 2017. There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average asking price of the 10 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,351,000.