Wine Country Real Estate Trends in October 2017
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for October 2017
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group had 33 closings in October 2017 compared to 42 last month. In October, we closed homes with a total value of $23 million compared to $35 last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in October was $711,801.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 59 pending sales with a value of $48 million dollars. We have 64 active listings with a value of $82 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,281,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Results for October 2017:
After the Fires
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of October dropped dramatically – partly a seasonal adjustment and partly due to the tragic fires in the early part of the month. There were 116 homes “withdrawn or canceled” from the MLS in Sonoma County in the two weeks following 10/8/17 (the date the fires began). In the two weeks prior, there were 36 “withdrawn-canceled” listings. So, one can intuit that probably 80+/- listings were withdrawn as a result of the fires. The inventory stands at 613 and is down 32% from the inventory last month (899). It is down 21.4% from the inventory in October 2016 (780). New sales (541) in October jumped 25% ahead of last month (434) and were 18% ahead of the pace of October 2016 (458). There is just a 1.1 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. Usually, sales are decreasing at this time of year. We believe that folks purchasing replacement homes boosted the October numbers this year. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 38 (Rohnert Park) to 111 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 56 days. The median price of homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $613,000 – the highest median price that the County has ever experienced. This is an 8% increase over the median price in October 2016 ($565,000). We expect that the loss of homes in the fires will put upwards pressure on prices in most locations throughout the County.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,700,000). There has been a 4% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (156) from 11/1/16 to 10/31/17 compared to 150 from 11/1/15 to 10/31/16. The inventory of Luxury Homes dropped 39 homes (20%) from last month. 24 homes priced at $1,700,000 or higher were “withdrawn-canceled” in Sonoma County In the two weeks following 10/8 – the date the fires began. At the end of September there were 195 homes in inventory compared to 156 at the end of October. The pace of new sales (23) in October this year was 36% higher than the pace of a year ago (17) and was 77% ahead of the pace last month (13). Again, there were a good number of homes purchased quickly to replace those destroyed in the fires. The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 120 days this October compared to 128 days a year ago. This compares to 56 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in October. There is a 6.4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.1 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (26) in Cloverdale at the end of October is about equal to the 25 homes in inventory in October last year and it is 23.5% below the 34 homes last month. There were 20 new sales in Cloverdale in October. This compares to 9 sales in October 2016 and 9 new sales last month. One can assume that some of the purchases in October related to replacing homes lost in Santa Rosa in the fires. There is a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This compares to a 3.8 months supply last month.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of October (30) is slightly below the inventory a year ago (32) and it is equal to the inventory last month (30). There were 6 new home sales for the month of October compared to 7 a year ago and 10 last month. There is a 5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. Days on Market for the 10 homes that closed in October was 111 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 76 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 14% below the inventory in October 2016 (88) and it is 20% below the inventory last month (95). There were 31 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 29% ahead of the number of sales in October 2016 (24) and it is 24% ahead of the pace last month (25). It is the highest number of new sales in any month in Healdsburg in the past ten plus years. Replacement home buyers are probably playing a factor in this sales activity. The months of available inventory is 2.5 months based on the current sales pace. Days on Market for the 28 homes that closed in October was 90 days.
Oakmont: There were just 7 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of October. This is 50% lower than in October 2016 (14) and it is 42% lower than the inventory last month (12). This may be the lowest inventory ever in Oakmont. There were 20 new sales for the month. This is equal to the sales pace of a year ago and 43% ahead of the pace of last month (14). There is a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $750,000. The median price was $673.000 for the 12 homes closed in October – an increase of 11% over the price of $605,000 in October 2016.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of October (47) is 37% below the inventory in October 2016 (75) and it is 30% below the inventory last month (68). There were 61 new sales for the month. This is equal to the number of new sales in October 2016 (61) and is 46% ahead of the 42 sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 0.8 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 44 homes that closed in October was $666,000. This is equal to the median price last October ($665,000).
Rohnert Park: For the past twelve months, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park have outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. There were 27 new sales in October compared to 41 last month and 26 in October 2016. The inventory began the month at 19 homes and ended the month at 14 homes. There is just a half months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($503,000) of the 34 homes closed in October was 4% higher than the median price a year ago ($485,000). In October 2010, the median price was $271,000.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October (47) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 49% ahead of the level of October 2016 (32) and it is 25% below the inventory last month (63). There were 24 new sales for the month of October. This is 20% ahead of the pace in October 2016 (20) and 14% lower than the pace last month (28). There is a two months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price ($488,000) of the 27 homes that closed in October was 15% higher than the median price a year ago ($425,000). In October 2010, the median price was $241,000.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of October (136) is 45% below the inventory of a year ago (247) and it is 50.5% below the inventory last month (275). 66 homes were “withdrawn-canceled” in the two weeks following 10/8 – the night the fires began. New sales in October (231) were 11% ahead of the pace of last October (208) and they were 33% ahead of the pace last month (174). There is a 0.8 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 142 homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $556,000 compared to $515,000 a year ago – an 8% increase. The median has ranged from $495,000 to $565,000 over the past twelve months.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October (45) in Sebastopol is 10 % ahead of the level of October 2016 (41) and it is 22% below the inventory last month (58). There were 37 new sales for the month of October. This is 95% ahead of the pace in October 2016 (19) and 61% ahead of the pace last month (23). This is the highest number of new sales in any month since 6/13 – so it appears to be impacted by those purchasing replacement homes. There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 24 homes that closed in Sebastopol in October went from listing to pending in 43 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (127) at the end of October in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) dropped dramatically from last month. At the end of October there were 31 fewer homes available (-20%) than at the end of September. Twelve of the homes appear to have been “withdrawn-canceled” as a result of the wildfires. Still, the inventory was 15.5% ahead of that of last October (110). There were 40 new sales for the month. This is 21% ahead of the pace of sales in October 2016 (33) and it is 11% ahead of the pace of last month (36). There is a 3.2 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 60% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of October started at $3,000,000. Eleven homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 15 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 33 homes available in this quartile in October compared to 20 a year ago. Nine homes with prices in excess of $3,000,000 were removed from the market in October – none of them through closings. There were two new sales in the top quartile in October. There is currently a 16.5 months supply of inventory in the top quartile based upon the current sales pace.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of October (14) is 56% below the inventory in October 2016 (32) and it is 67% below the 42 homes last month. There were 39 new sales for the month. This is 22% ahead of the pace of sales in October 2016 (32) and it is 77% ahead of the pace of last month (14). Clearly, replacement homes are being purchased in Windsor. There is just a 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 30 homes closed in October in Windsor was 60 days. The median price ($610,000) of the homes closed in October was 5% higher than the median price a year ago ($580,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of October (318) is 13% below the inventory in October 2016 (364) and it is also 13% below the inventory last month (367). There were 34 homes “withdrawn or canceled” from the MLS in Napa County in the two weeks following 10/8/17 (the date the fires began). In the two weeks prior, there were 8 “withdrawn-canceled” listings. So, one can intuit that probably 26+/- listings were withdrawn as a result of the fires. New sales (126) were equal to the pace of last year (126) and 16% ahead of the pace of last month (109). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – trending towards a balanced market. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 79 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 91 homes closed in October in Napa County ($625,000) was slightly higher than the median price of a year ago ($620,000). The median has generally flucuated between $580,000 and $660,000 over the past year.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,300,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (61) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is 10% lower for the period 11/1/16 to 10/31/17 compared to 11/1/15 to 10/31/16 (68 homes). There were 78 luxury homes in inventory at the end of October 2017 compared to 88 at the end of October 2016. Twelve homes priced at $2,300,000 or higher were “withdrawn-canceled” in Napa County In the two weeks following 10/8 – the date the fires began. There were 7 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 11 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.5 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 23 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in American Canyon. This is 35% ahead of the inventory a year ago (17) and it is equal to the supply last month (23). New sales (10) were 29% below the pace of October 2016 (14) and they were also 29% lower than the pace of last month (14). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 10 homes that closed in American Canyon in October was $554,000. This is 18% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in October 2016 ($468,000) but it is more in line with the median price over the past 12 months that has ranged from the low $400,000s to the mid $500,000s.
Napa: There were 168 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in the City of Napa. This is 13% lower than the inventory a year ago (194) and it is also 13% lower than the supply last month (194). New sales (81) were 10% below the pace of October 2016 (90) and they were 9.5% ahead of the pace of last month (74). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 63 homes that closed in Napa in October was $620,000. This is 5% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in October 2016 ($593,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of October (105) is 16% below the level of 124 in October 2016 and it is 16% below the level last month (125). There were 30 new sales for the month compared to 19 a year ago and 17 last month. There is now a 3.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 15 closings last month was 116 days. Approximately 65% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (51 homes). Six of the seven luxury home sales in Napa County last month were in the Up Valley market.