Wine Country Real Estate Trends in October 2018
Wildfires in California
Walking out of the office last Thursday morning and seeing the smoky sky really was unsettling for me. I’m sure others felt the same dread. Our hearts and prayers go out to those in the Paradise area where thousands of homes and too many lives have been lost.
Our Sonoma office is a drop off point for Sonoma Rotary collecting supplies and donations for the fire victims. Please see the attached links if you’d like to help us help.
https://www.sonomanews.com/news/8943549-181/gift-cards-sought-to-assist?sba=AAS
https://www.facebook.com/609596657/posts/10155903826876658/
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for October 2018
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 38 closings in October 2018 compared to 33 last month and 37 last October. On a year to date basis, we are slightly behind in units closed comparing 2018 to 2017. In October, we closed homes with a total value of $20 million compared to $19 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in October was $520,107.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 54 pending sales with a value of $67 million dollars. We have 70 active listings with a value of $57 million dollars. Our average listing price is $850,746.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for October 2018:
Market Comparisons to October 2017
The wildfires across Wine Country occurred in early October of last year. A good number of homes were removed from the market in later October 2017 as folks tried to figure out the impact of the fires. Thus, the inventory of available homes was unseasonably low for the last three months of last year. Some of the percentages are quite high comparing this year to last and that is partly driven by the fires last year.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of October stands at 1,160. This is 89% ahead of the inventory in October 2017 (613) and it is down slightly from the inventory last month (1,198). This remains a relatively high inventory for recent years but not an unreasonably high number for historical purposes. When I first started operating in the Wine Country in 1996, we had over 3,000 homes available in Sonoma County. New sales (444) in Sonoma County in October were 12% below the pace of October 2017 (507) and they were slightly ahead of the pace last month (434). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 48 (Petaluma) to 108 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 60 days (the highest since January of this year). The median price of homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $620,000. This is a 1.6% increase over the median price in October 2017 ($610,000). As we expected, the appreciation rate has settled down from the 12% year over year increase in the first part of the year. We’ll continue to watch to see if the rate of appreciation continues to decline.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,100,000). There has been a 32% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (696) from 11/1/17 to 10/31/18 compared to 529 closings in the period 11/1/16 to 10/31/17. The inventory of luxury homes (283) is 10% above the inventory in October 2017 (257 homes). The pace of new sales (57) in October this year is 16% below the pace of a year ago (68) and it is 7.5% ahead of the pace last month (53). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 83 days this October compared to 85 days a year ago. This compares to 60 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in October. There is a 5.0 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.6 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (46) in Cloverdale at the end of October is 77% ahead of the inventory in October of 2017 (26). It is slightly below the inventory of last month (50). There were 15 new sales in Cloverdale in October. This compares to 20 sales in October 2017 and 9 new sales last month. There is a 3.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 11 homes that closed in October was 51 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There were 25 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This is 17% below the inventory (30) a year ago and it is 7% below the inventory last month (27). There were 4 new sales in October compared to 5 a year ago and 6 last month. There is now a 6.3 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. There were 6 closings in the month, the same as a month ago. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 108 days.
Healdsburg Trends: Inventory in Healdsburg reversed a year long rising trend in October. There were 86 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 13% above the inventory in October 2017 (76) and it is 14% below the inventory last month (100). Sales were 33% below the pace of sales in October 2017 (27) and they were 10% below the sales pace last month (20). The months of available inventory is now 4.8 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 25 homes that closed in October was 72 days.
Oakmont: Inventory remained high in Oakmont at the end of October. There were 45 homes available. This is over 500% ahead of the inventory in October 2017 (7) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (49). New sales (15) are 25% below the sales pace of a year ago (20) and are 29% below the pace of last month (21). There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $747,000 for the 23 homes that closed in October. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 55 days.
Petaluma: The inventory in Petaluma at the end of October (83) is 77% ahead of the inventory in October 2017 (47) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (93). There were 50 new sales for the month. This is 15% below the 59 sales in October 2017 and it is 14% ahead of the number of new sales last month (44). The Petaluma market currently has 1.7 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. Petaluma remains one of the tightest markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 51 homes that closed in October was $750,000. This is 12.6% above the median price last October ($666,000). The Days on Market for the 51 homes that closed in October was 48 days.
Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of October (61) is 336% ahead of the inventory in October 2017 (14) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (68). There were 40 new sales in Rohnert Park in October. This is 54% higher than the number of sales in October 2017 (26) and it is 11% below the sales pace last month (45). There is 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($535,000) of the 44 homes and condominiums that closed in October is 6% higher than the median price a year ago ($505,000). In November 2010, the median price was $210,000. The Days on Market for the 44 homes that closed in October was 53 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October (69) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 47% ahead of the level of October 2017 (47) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (75). There were 22 new sales for the month of October. This sales pace is 12% below the pace in October 2017 (25) and it is 24% below the pace last month (29). There is a 3.1 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $504,000 for the 34 homes that closed in October. The Days on Market for the 34 homes that closed in October was 61 days.
Santa Rosa: Forty-one percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of October (471) is 246% ahead of the inventory of a year ago (136) (that’s a big increase) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (485). New sales in October (187) are 10% below the pace of last October (216) and they are 3% ahead of the pace last month (181). There is a 2.5 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 187 homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $590,000 compared to $555,000 a year ago – a 7% increase. The Days on Market for the 187 homes that closed in October was 60 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Sebastopol (71) is 58% ahead of the level of October 2017 (45) and it is 4% below the inventory last month (74). There were 24 new sales for the month of October. This is 27% below the pace in October 2017 (33) and it is 11% below the pace last month (27). There is a 3 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 25 homes that closed in Sebastopol in October went from listing to pending in 53 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (137) at the end of October in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 7% above the inventory last October (127) and it is 16% above the inventory of last month (118). There were 37 new sales for the month. This is equal to the pace of sales in October 2017 (37) and it is 19% ahead of the pace of last month (31). There is a 3.7 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. Fifty-six percent (77 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 38% of the new sales (14) in October were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of October starts at $2,800,000. 26 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 14 in the twelve months prior to that. There are 36 homes available in this quartile in October 2018 compared to 37 a year ago. There were two new sales in the top quartile in October creating a 18 months supply of inventory in this quartile based on the current sales pace. The closed homes over the past year closed at a price of roughly $1,000 per square foot of building area.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of October equals 46 properties. This is 229% ahead of the inventory in October 2017 (14) and it is 6% below the 49 homes last month. There were 23 new sales for the month. This is 40% below the pace of sales in October 2017 (38) and it is 8% below the pace of last month (49). There is a 2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 27 homes that closed in October in Windsor was 69 days. The median price ($607,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in October is 4% lower than the median price a year ago ($630,000).
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of October (417) is 31% ahead of the inventory in October 2017 (318) and it is just slightly ahead of the inventory last month (412). New sales (130) are 14% ahead of the pace of last year (114) and are 13% ahead of the pace of last month (115). There is a 3.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 68 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 114 homes closed in October in Napa County ($668,000) was 7% higher than the median price of a year ago ($625,000). 44% of the inventory in Napa County (104 properties) are priced at $1,000,000 or above.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,100,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (81) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,100,000) in Napa County for the period 11/1/17 to 10/31/18 compared to 71 closings in the period 11/1/16 to 10/31/17. There were 105 luxury homes in inventory at the end of October 2018 compared to 91 at the end of October 2017. There were 11 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 9.5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 3.2 months supply for the County as a whole.
American Canyon: There were 33 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in American Canyon. This is 44% ahead of the inventory a year ago (23) and it is 14% ahead of the supply last month (29). New sales (14) were 75% ahead of the pace of October 2017 (8) and they were 40% ahead of the pace of last month (10). There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 65 days. The median price of the 12 homes that closed in American Canyon in October ($544,000) was 2% lower than the median price of a year ago ($557,000). The median price in November 2010 was $272,000.
Napa: Fifty-four percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There were 226 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in the City of Napa. This is a 35% ahead of the supply at the end of October 2017 (168) and it is essentially equal to the inventory at the end of last month (227). New sales (85) were 15% ahead of the pace of October 2017 (74) and they were essentially equal to the pace of last month (86). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 81 closings last month was 60 days. The median price of the 81 homes that closed in the City of Napa in October was $649,000. This is 5% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in October 2017 ($620,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of October (127) is 21% ahead of the level of 105 in October 2017 and it is 4% ahead of the level last month (122). There were 24 new sales in the month compared to 28 a year ago and 17 last month. There is now a 6.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 18 closings last month was 91 days. Approximately 55% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,100,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (58 homes). There were five luxury home (price in excess of $2,100,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and seven new luxury home sales.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Angwin (15) is 12% below the level of October 2017 (17) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (16). There were four new sales for the month of October compared to none last month and three in October of 2017. There is a 4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average asking price of the 15 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,349,000.