Wine Country Real Estate Trends in October 2019
PAIGE – PAIGE expresses our Core Business Values. I’m going to cover one of the letters in each blog posting over the next five posts.
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Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for October 2019
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate |Wine Country Group enjoyed 55 closings in October 2019 compared to 38 last October and 55 last month. In October, we closed homes with a total value of $33.3 million compared to $20 million last year and $34.5 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in October was $606,000. Last October our average selling price was $520,000.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 54 pending sales with a value of $32 million dollars. We have 91 active listings with a value of $77 million dollars. Our average listing price is $846,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for October 2019
Median prices appreciating again: Throughout the region, median prices for single family homes and condominiums appreciated on a year over year basis comparing closings in October 2019 to October 2018. This is a reversal to the year to date trend of decreasing median prices. It will be interesting to see where the year-end data lands.
Sonoma County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of October stands at 1,129. This is 3% below the inventory in October 2018 (1,198) and it is 9% below the inventory last month (1,129). This is an expected seasonal decline. New sales (432) in Sonoma County in October were 6% ahead of the pace of October 2018 (409) and they were 8% below the pace last month (468). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 49 (Petaluma) to 131 (Healdsburg) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 68 days. The median price of 418 homes closed in October in Sonoma County was $649,000. This is 5% ahead of the median price in October 2018 ($617,000). Over the past three months, Sonoma County homes are selling at roughly 95% of original list price.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,400,000). There has been a 28% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (289) from 11/1/18 to 10/31/19 compared to 399 closings in the period 11/1/17 to 10/31/18. Sales in the 11/1/17 to 10/31/18 period were influenced by fire survivors purchasing replacement homes after the 10/17 fires. The inventory of luxury homes (270) is 37% ahead of the inventory in October 2018 (197 homes). The pace of new sales (23) in October this year is 23% below the pace of a year ago (30) and it is 21% below the pace last month (29). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 82 days this October compared to 79 days a year ago. This compares to 68 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in October. There is an 11.7 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.6 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past three months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (33) in Cloverdale at the end of October is 28% below the inventory in October of 2018 (46). It is 15% below the inventory of last month (39). There were 13 new sales in Cloverdale in October. This compares to 11 sales in October 2018 and 12 new sales last month. There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 13 homes that closed in October was 93 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There are 28 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This compares to 25 homes in inventory in October 2018 and 27 homes last month. There were 6 new sales in October compared to 4 a year ago and 3 last month. There is now a 5 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 5 homes that closed in October was 113 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There are 116 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. It is 35% above the inventory in October 2018 (86) and it is 10% below the inventory last month (129). New sales in October (23) were 53% ahead of the pace of sales in October 2018 (15) and they were 92% above the sales pace last month (12). The months of available inventory is now five months based on the current sales pace. This is down from eleven months a month ago. The Days on Market for the 15 homes that closed in October was 131 days. This compares to 72 days a year ago.
Oakmont: There are 52 homes available in Oakmont at the end of October. This is 16% higher than the inventory in October 2018 (45) and it is essentially equal to the inventory last month (53). New sales (12) are 14% below the sales pace of a year ago (14) and 25% below the pace of last month (16). There is a 4.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $716,000 for the 18 homes that closed in October. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 93 days.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of October (100) is 21% ahead of the inventory in October 2018 (83) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (107). There were 63 new sales for the month. This is 31% ahead of the 48 sales in October 2018 and it is 7% below the 68 new sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 1.6 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. This is the one of the lowest months of inventory for any of our markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 65 homes that closed in October was $665,000. This is 11% below the median price last October ($750,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 49 days.
Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of October (55) is 10% below the inventory in October 2018 (61) and it is 24% below the inventory last month (72). There were 43 new sales in Rohnert Park in October. This is 16% ahead of the 37 sales in October 2018 and it is 30% ahead of the sales last month (33). There is 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($579,000) of the 22 homes and condominiums that closed in October is 8% ahead of the median price a year ago ($535,000). Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 53 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (77) is 12% above the level of October 2018 (69) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (91). There were 21 new sales for the month of October. This is 17% ahead of the pace in October 2018 (18) and it is 30% below the pace last month (30). There is a 3.7 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $519,000 for the 29 homes that closed in October. The homes that closed in the Russian River in October went from listing to pending in 61 days.
Santa Rosa: Thirty-five percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of October (390) is 17% below the inventory of a year ago (471) and it is 8% below the inventory last month (422). New sales in October (170) are about equal to the pace of last October (173) and they are 9% below the pace last month (187). There is a 2.3 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 157 homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $600,000 compared to $587,000 a year ago – a two percent increase. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in October was 66 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Sebastopol (63) is 11% below the level of October 2018 (71) and it is 15% below the inventory last month (74). There were 19 new sales for the month of October. This is 14% below the pace in October 2018 (22) and it is 32% below the pace last month (28). There is a 3.3 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 33 homes that closed in Sebastopol in October went from listing to pending in 73 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (152) at the end of October in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 11% above the inventory last October (137) and it is slightly below the inventory of last month (156). There were 31 new sales for the month. This is 9% below the 34 sales in October 2018 and it is also 9% below the 34 sales last month. There is a 4.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The average Days on Market for the 32 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in October is 65 days. Sixty-eight percent (104 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 42% of the new sales (13) in October were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of October starts at $2,900,000. 15 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 25 in the twelve months prior to that. There are 38 homes available in this quartile in October 2019 compared to 35 a year ago and 38 last month. There was one new sale in the top quartile in October. This results in a 38 months supply of inventory in this segment of the market based on the current sales pace. The seven new high end sales in September was not replicated in October. The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price of roughly $1,000 per square foot of building area.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of October equals 46 properties. This is equal to the inventory in October 2018 and it is 6% below the 49 homes last month. There were 28 new sales for the month. This is 17% ahead of the pace of sales in October 2018 (24) and it is 13% below the pace of last month (32). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 27 homes that closed in October in Windsor was 57 days. The median price ($665,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in October is 11% above the median price a year ago ($604,000).
Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October is 500 properties. This is 4% below the number of lots in October 2018 (519) and it is 4% below the number of available lots last month (523). There were 43 new lot sales in October. This is 6.5% below the pace of sales in October 2018 (46) and it is 7% below the pace of lot sales last month (46). There is a 12 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 40 lots closed in October was 127 days and the median price was $268,000 – 8% below the median price a year ago ($290,000).
Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of October is 103 homes. This is 36% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in October 2018 (76) and it is slightly ahead of the number of available homes last month (99). This is the highest level of inventory of Mobile Homes in Sonoma County in the past seven years. There were 30 new mobile home sales in October. This is 19% below the pace of sales in October 2018 (37) and it is 12% below the pace of sales last month (34). There is a 3.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 33 mobile homes closed in October was 80 days and the median price was $130,000. This median price is 7% below the median price of $140,000 in October 2018.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of October (454) is 9% ahead of the inventory in October 2018 (417) and it is 7.5% below the inventory last month (491). This is likely a start to the seasonal trend that typically reduces inventory through January of the coming year. Nearly 50% of the inventory in Napa County (224 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above. New sales (124) are 7% ahead of the pace of last year (116) and are 3% below the 128 sales last month. There is a 3.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 90 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 131 homes closed in October in Napa County ($730,000) is 11% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($655,000). Over the past three months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 91% of original list price.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,300,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (67) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County for the period 11/1/18 to 10/31/19 compared to 65 closings in the period 11/1/17 to 10/31/18. There are 114 luxury homes in inventory at the end of October 2019 compared to 95 at the end of October 2018. There were only 4 new Luxury Home sales last month compared to 12 in September. This results in a 28 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 3.7 months supply for the County as a whole. Over the past three months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 85% of original list price.
American Canyon: There are 15 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in American Canyon. This is 55% below the inventory a year ago (33) and it is 25% below the supply last month (20). New sales (15) are 15% ahead of the pace of last year (13) and 50% ahead of the 10 sales last month. There is just a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 49 days. The median price of the 13 homes that closed in American Canyon in October ($600,000) was 10% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($543,000). It’s a very tight market in American Canyon at present.
Napa: Fifty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There are 240 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in the City of Napa. This is 6% ahead of the supply at the end of October 2018 (226) and it is 5% below the inventory at the end of last month (252). New sales (88) were 19% ahead of the pace of October 2018 (74) and they were 6% below the pace of last month (94). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 93 closings last month was 83 days compared to 62 days in October 2018. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in October was $739,000. This is 13% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in October 2018 ($652,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of October (156) is 23% higher than the level of 127 in October 2018 and it is 9% below the level last month (172). There were 18 new sales in the month compared to 24 a year ago and 19 last month. There is now an 8.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 20 closings last month was 130 days. Properties generally take longer to sell in the Up Valley than in the rest of Napa County. Approximately 61% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (69 homes). There were six luxury home (price in excess of $2,300,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and three new luxury home sales.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Angwin is 13 homes. This compares to 15 homes in October 2018 and 14 homes last month. There were two new sales in the month of October compared to four a year ago and one last month. The average asking price of the 13 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,426,000.
Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of October is 49 homes. This is essentially equal to the number of mobile homes available in October 2018 (50) and it is also equal to the number of available homes last month (49). There were 10 new mobile home sales in October. This is about the same as the pace of sales in October 2018 (11) and it is 38% below the pace of sales last month (16). There is a 4.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 15 mobile homes closed in October was a whopping 175 days and the median price was $175,000. This median price is 29% ahead of the median price of $135,000 in October 2018.
Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of October stands at 303. This is 24% below the inventory in October 2018 (397) and it is 9% below the inventory last month (334). New sales (66) in Mendocino County in October were 12% ahead of the pace of October 2018 (59) and they were 15% below the pace last month (78). There is a 4.6 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace. The average Days on Market for homes sold in Mendocino County in October is 103 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of 58 homes closed in October in Mendocino County was $411,000. This is 3% below the median price in October 2018 ($425,000).
Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October in Ukiah is 38 homes. This is the lowest inventory in Ukiah in the past 18 months. It is 39% below the level of October 2018 (62) and it is 7% below the inventory last month (41). There were 15 new sales for the month of October. This is 17% below the number of sales in October 2018 (18) and it is 44% below the sales last month (27). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 18 closings last month was 81 days. The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from 360,000 to $480,000. The median price was $370,000 for the homes that closed in October.
Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (496 homes) is essentially equal to the 498 homes in October 2018 and it is 14% below the 574 homes in inventory last month. New sales (247) were up 6% from last year (233) and down slightly from last month (252) creating a 2.0 months supply. The median price of the homes sold in Marin County in October was $1,250,000. This is 4% above the median price of $1,200,000 a year ago.