Wine Country Real Estate Trends in September 2019

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Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for September 2019

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate |Wine Country Group enjoyed 55 closings in September 2019 compared to 33 last September and 41 last month. In September, we closed homes with a total value of $34.5 million compared to $19 million last year and $25.2 million last month.  The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in September was $627,000.  Last September our average selling price was $566,000.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 69 pending sales with a value of $42 million dollars. We have 111 active listings with a value of $88 million dollars.  Our average listing price is $793,000.

Update on Statewide Rent Control – AB 1482

The Sonoma office of BHGRE|WCG will be hosting an informational presentation on the effects of the recently passed statewide rent control law (AB 1482) on investment property owners.  Expert attorney Jeanne Grove of Kaufman, Dolowich and Voluck will giving the presentation on Wednesday, November 6, at 6:00 PM at the Sonoma office.  If you would like to attend, please let me know or contact your real estate agent with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group.

California Association of Realtors 2020 Real Estate Forecast

 Leslie-Appleton Young, the widely respected economist for the California Association of Realtors, recently released the Association’s forecast for 2020.  It is a 109 page document covering all aspects of the economy and the state’s housing markets.  Some highlights include:

As of September 2019, 22% of California consumers believe that it is a good time to buy a home in California. 46% believe that it is a good time to sell a home in California.

Roughly 15% of properties “fall out of escrow” – primarily because the buyer changes their mind.

It takes almost $200,000 in annual income to afford a median priced home in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Roughly 27% of listings in the state sell at a price above the asking price.  The historic average is 20% of all listings.

Nearly one half of all listings receive multiple offers.  The average number of multiple offers is 3.7.  In 2013, nearly 70% of all listings received multiple offers.

There are fewer “buy and flip” purchasers in the market today than in the past.  Investor buyers make up 16.5% of the overall California home sales market.  18% of those investor buyers are “buy and flip” investors in 2019 compared to 26% in 2018.

International buyers represent approximately 4% of California home buyers.

Sellers are staying in their existing homes for approximately eleven years before selling.  This is up from about five years in 2005.

Cash buyers represent roughly 20% of all buyers of California homes.  This is the lowest percentage of cash buyers in the past ten years.

CAR is projecting a 1% increase in the number of residential sales in 2020 and a 2.5% increase in selling prices.  A median priced home in California ($608,000) is affordable by 32% of California households. CAR is projecting the rate of 30 year fixed rate mortgages to be 3.7% in 2020 – a very reasonable interest rate in historical context.

If you have any questions about these highlights, or other aspects of the report, please let me know.

Wine Country Real Estate Trends for September 2019

 Sonoma County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of September stands at 1,238.  This is 3.3% greater than the inventory in September 2018 (1,198) and is essentially equal to the inventory last month (1,235).  New sales (501) in Sonoma County in September were 16% ahead of the pace of September 2018 (433) and equal to the pace last month (503). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 45 (Rohnert Park) to 164 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 67 days.  The median price of 449 homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $625,000.  This is 1.6% below the median price in September 2018 ($635,000).

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,300,000).  There has been a 20% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (373) from 10/1/18 to 9/30/19 compared to 453 closings in the period 10/1/17 to 9/30/18.  Sales in the 10/1/17 to 9/30/18 period were influenced by fire survivors purchasing replacement homes after the 10/17 fires.  The inventory of luxury homes (311) is 27% ahead of the inventory in September 2018 (245 homes).  The pace of new sales (37) in September this year is equal to the pace of a year ago (36) and it is 18% below the pace last month (45).  The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 102 days this September compared to 77 days a year ago. This compares to 67 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in September. There is an 8.4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.5 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (39) in Cloverdale at the end of September is 22% below the inventory in September of 2018 (46). It is 17% below the inventory of last month (47).  There were 13 new sales in Cloverdale in September.  This compares to 9 sales in September 2018 and 11 new sales last month. There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 12 homes that closed in September in Cloverdale was 76 days.

Coastal Sonoma:  There are 27 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point).  This is equal to the inventory (27) a year ago and it is 16% below the inventory last month (32).  There were 3 new sales in September compared to 5 a year ago and 4 last month.  There is now an 9 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 4 homes that closed in September was 164 days.

Healdsburg Trends:  There are 129 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month.  It is 29% above the inventory in September 2018 (100) and it is 4% above the inventory last month (124).  New sales in September (14) were 30% below the pace of sales in September 2018 (20) and they were 44% below the sales pace last month (25). The months of available inventory is now 9.2 months based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 19 homes that closed in September was 142 days.  Some older inventory was certainly selling in Healdsburg last month.

Oakmont: There are 53 homes available in Oakmont at the end of September.  This is 8% higher than the inventory in September 2018 (49) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (54).  New sales (19) are slightly below the sales pace of a year ago (20) and slightly above the pace of last month (18).  There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the mid-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $557,000 for the 20 homes that closed in September.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 87 days.

Petaluma:   The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of September (107) is 15% ahead of the inventory in September 2018 (93) and it is 14% below the inventory last month (125). There were 72 new sales for the month – the highest for any month in recent years. This is 64% ahead of the 44 sales in September 2018 and it is 29% ahead of the 56 new sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 1.5 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace.  This is the one of the lowest months of inventory for any of our markets in Wine Country.  The median price of the 51 homes that closed in September was $700,000. This is 7% below the median price last September ($752,000).  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 54 days.

Rohnert Park:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of September (72) is 6% ahead of the inventory in September 2018 (68) and it is 33% ahead of the inventory last month (54).   There were 37 new sales in Rohnert Park in September.  This is 20% below the 46 sales in September 2018 and it is 12% below the sales last month (42).  There is 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($523,000) of the 46 homes and condominiums that closed in September is slightly ahead of the median price a year ago ($517,000). Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 45 days.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (91) is 21% above the level of September 2018 (75) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (94).  There were 32 new sales for the month of September. This is 7% ahead of the pace in September 2018 (30) and it is 11% below the pace last month (36).  There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $498,000 for the 28 homes that closed in September.  The homes that closed in the Russian River in September went from listing to pending in 55 days.

Santa Rosa:  Thirty-four percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa.  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of September (422) is 13% below the inventory of a year ago (485) and it is 5% ahead of the inventory last month (403).  New sales in September (201) are 12% ahead of the pace of last September (179) and they are 11% ahead of the pace last month.  There is a 2.1 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 157 homes closed in September in Santa Rosa was $580,000 compared to $600,000 a year ago – a three percent decrease.  The Days on Market for the homes that closed in September was 66 days.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Sebastopol (74) is equal to the level of September 2018 and it is also equal to the inventory last month. There were 31 new sales for the month of September.  This is 15% ahead of the pace in September 2018 (27) and it is 11% below the pace last month (35).  There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 28 homes that closed in Sebastopol in September went from listing to pending in 68 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (156) at the end of September in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 32% above the inventory last September (118) and it is 3% above the inventory of last month (152).  There were 35 new sales for the month. This is 13% ahead of the 31 sales in September 2018 and it is 36% below the 55 sales last month.  There is a 4.5 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The average Days on Market for the 50 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in September is 76 days.  Sixty-five percent (101 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 54% of the new sales (19) in September were priced at over $1,000,000.

The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of September starts at $2,800,000. 13 homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 25 in the twelve months prior to that. There are 39 homes available in this quartile in September 2019 compared to 34 a year ago and 45 last month. There were 7 new sales in the top quartile in September.  The seven new sales was the highest for any month in recent years.  It results in a six months supply of inventory in this segment of the market based on the current sales pace improved from the average of over a year in recent months.  We’ll see if these high end sales hold up through the fall.  The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price of roughly $1,000 per square foot of building area.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of September equals 49 properties.  This is equal to the inventory in September 2018 and it is 7.5% below the 53 homes last month.  There were 34 new sales for the month. This is 36% ahead of the pace of sales in September 2018 (25) and it is 11% below the pace of last month (38).  There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 33 homes that closed in September in Windsor was 65 days. The median price ($627,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in September is 5% below the median price a year ago ($660,000).

Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September is 523 properties.  This is slightly above the number of lots in September 2018 (519) and it is 3.5% below the number of available lots last month (542). There were 47 new lot sales in September.  This is 17.5% ahead of the pace of sales in September 2018 (40) and it is 12% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (42).  There is a 11 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 27 lots closed in September was 160 days and the median price was $275,000 – 7% below the median price a year ago ($295,000).

Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September is 99 homes.  This is 57% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in September 2018 (63) and it is equal to the number of available homes last month. This remains the highest level of inventory of Mobile Homes in Sonoma County in the past seven years.  There were 36 new mobile home sales in September.  This is 24% ahead of the pace of sales in September 2018 (29) and it is also 24% ahead of the pace of sales last month (29).  There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 34 mobile homes closed in September was 86 days and the median price was $138,000.  This median price is 8% below the median price of $150,000 in September 2018.

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of September (491) is 19% ahead of the inventory in September 2018 (412) and it is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (489).  This is the highest inventory in Napa County in the past seven years.  50% of the inventory in Napa County (240 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above.  New sales (137) are 22% ahead of the pace of last year (112) and are 5% ahead of the 130 sales last month.  There is a 3.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 89 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 122 homes closed in September in Napa County ($772,000) is 13% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($685,000).  This is the highest median price for sold homes for any month in Napa County since we have records (2000).  We will see if this median holds up for the balance of the year.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,300,000 in Napa County at this time.  The number of closings (65) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County for the period 10/1/18 to 9/30/19 compared to 60 closings in the period 10/1/17 to 9/30/18.  There are 119 luxury homes in inventory at the end of September 2019 compared to 93 at the end of September 2018.  There were 12 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 10 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 3.6 months supply for the County as a whole.

American Canyon:  There are 20 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in American Canyon. This is 31% below the inventory a year ago (29) and it is 30% above the supply last month (15).  New sales (10) are slightly ahead of the pace of last year (9) and 33% below the 15 sales last month.  There is a two months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 51 days. The median price of the 8 homes that closed in American Canyon in September ($500,000) was 12% below the median price of a year ago ($568,000).

Napa:  Fifty-one percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa.  There are 252 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in the City of Napa. This is 11% ahead of the supply at the end of September 2018 (227) and it is 4.5% below the inventory at the end of last month (264).  New sales (100) were 21% ahead of the pace of September 2018 (83) and they were 7% ahead of the pace of last month (92). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 90 closings last month was 88 days compared to 52 days in September 2018.  The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in September was $744,000. This is 10% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in September 2018 ($675,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of September (172) is 41% higher than the level of 122 in September 2018 and it is 4% ahead of the level last month (165).  There were 19 new sales in the month compared to 17 a year ago and 17 last month.  There is now a 9.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The Days on Market for the 21 closings last month was 107 days.  Approximately 62% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (74 homes). There were three luxury home (price in excess of $2,300,000) closings in the Up Valley Market last month and six new luxury home sales.

Angwin:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Angwin is 14 homes. This compares to 16 homes in September 2018 and 15 homes last month.  There was one new sale in the month of September compared to none a year ago and two last month. The average asking price of the 14 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,478,000.

Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of September is 49 homes.  This is 6% below the number of mobile homes available in September 2018 (52) and it is slightly ahead of the number of available homes last month (48).  There were 17 new mobile home sales in September.  This is 13% ahead of the pace of sales in September 2018 (15) and it is 42% ahead of the pace of sales last month (12).  There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.  The average days on market of the 10 mobile homes closed in September was a whopping 230 days and the median price was $230,000.  This median price is 32% ahead of the median price of $174,000 in September 2018.  It is the highest median price for closed mobile homes for any month in Napa County dating to 2000.

Mendocino County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of September stands at 334.  This is 23% below the inventory in September 2018 (431) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (345).  New sales (86) in Mendocino County in September were 68% ahead of the pace of September 2018 (51) and they were 27% ahead of the pace last month (68).  There is a 3.9 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace. The average Days on Market for homes sold in Mendocino County in September is 132 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of 56 homes closed in September in Mendocino County was $408,000.  This is 4% below the median price in September 2018 ($425,000).

Ukiah:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of September in Ukiah was 41 homes.  This is the lowest inventory in Ukiah in the past 18 months.  It is 39% below the level of September 2018 (67) and it is 20% below the inventory last month (51).  There were 30 new sales for the month of September.  This is the highest level of new sales for any month in Ukiah in the past ten plus years. It is 233% ahead of the number of sales in September 2018 (9) and it is 77% ahead of the sales last month (17).  There is just a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 19 closings last month was 101 days.  The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from 360,000 to $480,000. The median price was $412,000 for the homes that closed in September.

Marin County:  Marin County’s inventory (574 homes) is 7.5% ahead of the 534 homes in September 2018 and it is 15% ahead of the 500 homes in inventory last month.  New sales (264) were up approximately 20% from last month (221) creating a 2.2 months supply.  The median price of the homes sold in Marin County in September was $1,189,000.  This is 3.5% below the median price of $1,211,000 a year ago.