Wine Country Real Estate Trends in January 2017
BHGRE|Wine Country Group Pending Sales and Inventory – 2/1/17: We currently have 28 properties in escrow with a value of $24.4 million dollars ($871,428 per transaction) and 30 unsold listings with a value of $21.6 million dollars ($720,000 per listing).
Wine Country Real Estate Results and Trends for January 2017:
Sonoma County: As predicted, the inventory stopped its seasonal slide in January and has started a rebound for the beginning of the year. The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of January (521) was 4% higher than the inventory in January 2016 (502) and was equal to the inventory last month (521). New sales (316) in January were 11% ahead of the pace of last January (285) and were 24% ahead of the pace of last month (255). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. In comparison, in January 2007 there was over a 14.5 months supply of inventory. The time it takes to sell a home throughout Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 55 to 70 days. The median price of homes closed in January in Sonoma County was $550,000. This is a 2% increase over the median price in January 2016 ($538,000). The current median price is just 7% below the peak median price for the County ($589,000) recorded in June 2005. So, it can be said that close to all of the value lost through the recession (2007 to 2011) has been regained in the Sonoma County market.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,250,000). There has been a 7% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (290) from 2/1/16 to 1/31/17 compared to 272 from 2/1/15 to 1/31/16. The pace of new sales (21) in January this year was 31% ahead of the pace of a year ago (16). There were 141 luxury properties in inventory at the end of January compared to 145 last month and 118 a year ago. The Days on Market for Luxury Home sales was 104 days this January compared to 160 days a year ago. This compares to 70 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in January. There is a 7.8 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.6 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. On a statistical basis, it continues to be a “Buyers Market” in the high end.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (16) in Cloverdale at the end of January was 40% below the 25 homes in inventory in January 2016 and it was 25% ahead of the 12 homes last month. There were only 4 new sales in Cloverdale in January. This is 73% below the 15 sales in January 2016 and 43% below the 7 new sales last month. There is a 3.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. I expect inventory and sales to rebound in Cloverdale in the coming month.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of January (24) was about equal to the inventory a year ago (22) and slightly ahead of the inventory last month (21). There were 5 new home sales for the month of January compared to 5 a year ago and none last month. There is a 4.8 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.
Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Healdsburg at the end of January (57) was 46% ahead of the inventory in January 2016 (39) and was down 14% from the inventory last month (66). This continues to be a relatively high level of seasonal inventory for Healdsburg. There were 22 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is three times as many as there were in January 2016 when there were only 7 sales. It is 29% ahead of the pace last month (17). Healdsburg real estate seems to be back on track after a few bumpy years. The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 2.6 months.
Oakmont: There were 16 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of January. This is 41% lower than in January 2016 (27) and slightly lower than last month (18). There were 13 new sales for the month. This is 18% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (11) and 63% ahead of the pace of last month (8). There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – that’s half of the supply of a month ago. The median price for homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the mid-$500’s up to $625,000. The median price was $570,000 for the 7 closings last month.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of January (56) is about the same as the inventory in January 2016 (55) and it is 14% ahead of the inventory last month (49). There were 49 new sales for the month. This is 53% ahead of the number of new sales in January 2016 (32) and is 63% ahead of the 30 sales last month. The Petaluma market has been volatile and currently has 1.1 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 33 homes that closed in January was $640,000. This is 11% higher than the median last January ($578,000).
Rohnert Park and Cotati: Once again, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park-Cotati outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. There were 33 new sales in January compared to 30 last month and 23 in January 2016. Inventory began the month at 18 homes and ended the month at 18 homes. There is just a one-half months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This is the lowest level of inventory for Rohnert Park/Cotati since our charts were developed. By comparison, in January 2007, there were 13 times more homes on the market here – 242. The median price ($485,000) closed in January was 5% higher than the median price a year ago ($461,000).
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of January (174) was about equal to the inventory of a year ago (178) and was also equal to the inventory last month (174). New sales in January (119) were 6% ahead of the pace of last month (112) and they were 10% ahead of the pace of last January (108). There is only a 1.5 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 111 homes closed in January in Santa Rosa was $501,000 compared to $514,000 a year ago – a 2.5% decrease. The median has ranged from $500,000 to $525,000 over the past six months.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of January (28) was 65% ahead of the level of January 2016 (17) and it was 12% ahead of last month (25). By comparison, there were 97 homes in inventory in Sebastopol in January 2008. There were 14 new sales for the month of January. This is 56% ahead of the pace of last month (9) and about equal to the pace in January 2016 (15). There is a 2.0 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (72) at the end of January in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) was 39% ahead of the inventory in January 2016 (52) and was about equal to the inventory of last month (69). There were 27 new sales for the month. This is 16% below the pace of sales in January 2016 (32) and it is slightly ahead of the pace of last month (25). There is a 2.7 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 40% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above while 33% of the new sales (9) were priced at $1,000,000 or more. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of January started at $$1,900,000). This compares to $1,500,000 last month, so a lot of high-end properties were withdrawn over the holidays and then put back on this month. The months of available inventory in the top quartile is 8.5 months.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of January (19) is the lowest since February of 2015. It is 37% below the inventory in January 2016 (30) and it is 17% lower than the 23 homes last month. There were 20 new sales in Windsor in January. This is 20% lower than the sales in January 2016 (25) and 54% higher than the sales last month (13). There is a one months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 17 sales that closed in January in Windsor was $523,000. This is 2% ahead of the median price ($515,000) of the homes closed last January.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of January (237) is 4% below the inventory in January 2016 (247) and is 8.5% lower than the inventory last month (259). New sales (100) were 23.5% ahead of the pace last year (81) and 39% ahead of the pace of last month (72). There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace versus a 3.4 months supply last month. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently ranging between 75 to 115 days depending on price and location. The median price of the 81 closed homes in January in Napa County ($650,000) was 20% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($540,000) but the median has been closer to $600,000 for most of the year so the increase in more like 8%. The median has generally ranged between $580,000 and $620,000 over the past year. The current median price remains 4% below the peak median price for the County ($675,000) recorded in June 2006 so, as in Sonoma County and south through Marin into San Francisco and the Peninsula, most of the home equity lost in the recession (2007 to 2011) has been regained.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $1,900,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (84) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,900,000) in Napa County is 17% ahead for the period 2/1/16 to 1/31/17 compared to 2/1/15 to 1/31/16 (72 homes). There were 59 luxury homes in inventory at the end of January 2017 compared to 72 at the end of January 2016. There is a 15 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.4 months supply for the County as a whole.
Napa: There were 140 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of January in the City of Napa. This is 18% higher than the inventory a year ago (118) and it is 7% less than the supply last month (151). New sales (64) were 8.5% ahead of the pace of January 2016 (59) and they were 52% ahead of the pace of last month (42). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace versus a 3.3 months supply last month. The median price of the 53 homes that closed in Napa in January was $681,000 – a record high. This is 17% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in January 2016 ($581,000). The median price is 5% ahead of the peak median price in the City of Napa ($650,000) recorded in January 2006. We’ll have to watch and see if the median stays at this high level in the coming months.
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of January 2017 (65) was 20% below the level of 81 in January 2016 and it was 12% below the level last month (74). There were 14 new sales for the month compared to 8 a year ago and 13 last month. It appears some of the homes taken off the market over the holidays remain on the sidelines. There is now a 4.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 12 closings last month was 115 days. 51% of the Luxury Market (price in excess of $1,900,000) inventory in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (30 homes).