Wine Country Real Estate Trends in November 2013
Wine Country Group Events/Trainings: We are having a “New Home Sales Certification” training on Friday, 11/15 from 10:00 to 4:00 in Lafayette. This training will provide more than knowledge about how to handle sales in a new homes subdivision – it will give valuable tools to use in your everyday practice.
On Wednesday, 11/20, we will have the next in the series of “Seeds of Greatness” training at the NorBAR training room in Santa Rosa from 2:00 to 5:00. Kathy Ollerton will be leading a workshop in Entrepreneurial Business Planning to get us ready for 2014.
The Distinctive Collection Networking Group will head off to Tahoe on Friday, 11/22 to visit a new $4 million dollar company listing near the lake and visit other luxury properties. Please let Ally Valente know if you are planning to attend.
And, we will have an outstanding “Power Prospecting Workshop” on Tuesday, December 10. This will feature two nationally recognized trainers from our own BHG-Mason McDuffie team: Keith Robinson and Rich Casto. Details on time and location to follow.
I’ll be posting some of my notes from the NAR meetings that I attended in San Francisco last weekend in a couple of days.
Wine Country Group Results for October 2013: Activity remained slow in October relative to past years. We just never got the “Fall Bump” that we’ve come to expect this time of year. The Wine Country Group had 61 closings in October. This is similar to the 56 closings that we had last month. It compares to 102 closings in October 2012. Like last month, our average selling price was well ahead of that of a year ago – $581,881 compared to 424,366. Thus, our dollar volume was $35.4 million compared to $43.3 million last year and $38.5 million last month. Our Santa Rosa office led in October closings with 15 while the Sonoma office had 14 and the Napa and Healdsburg offices each had 9. The Sonoma office led in dollar volume with $11 million in sales. The Santa Rosa office had $8.2 and the Healdsburg office had $8.2 million. Our escrow openings were 67 units compared to 69 last month and 114 in October 2012. We had 26 new listings for the month compared to 30 a year ago and 28 a month ago.
The Wine Country Group currently has 73 pending sales with a value of $53 million dollars. We have 99 active listings with a value of $93 million dollars. Our average listing price is $944,000 – compared to an average of $896,000 a year ago.
Wine Country Market – October 2013
Sonoma County: Sales continued to slide for the third straight month but the inventory of unsold homes finally eased off after eight straight months of increase in Sonoma County. There were 871 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of October compared to 947 at the end of September, an 8% drop. Inventory is 6% higher than the inventory of October 2012 (823). New sales in October (527) were 4.2% below the pace of last month (550) and 10% below the pace of October last year (586). New listing activity fell to 421 units for the month compared to 552 last month and over 590 per month for the period from March through August. There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace – still a tight (Seller’s) market. Properties continue to sell at a quick pace with the closings last month being on the market an average of 64 days compared to 91 days on market a year ago. The median price of homes closed in October in Sonoma County ($430,000) was 20% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($357,000). The low median price over recent years was $292,000 in February 2011. The market has rebounded 47% since that low, but remains 27% below the high median price of $589,000 in June 2005.
Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up just 6.5% of the inventory and 13% of the new sales – this continues to trend down month over month. One year ago, the distressed property inventory represented 14% of the overall inventory and distressed sales represented 34% of all new sales. There is 0.8 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: Sales of luxury homes (sales price in excess of $900,000) in the Sonoma County have enjoyed a strong growth in activity in the last twelve months. There has been a 27% increase in the number of luxury homes sold – 410 from 11/1/12 to 10/31/13 compared to 324 from 11/1/12 to 10/31/12. There were 43 new luxury home sales in October 2013 compared to 22 in October 2012.
Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (34) at the end of October 2013 was 15% below that of a year ago (40) and also below that of last month (38). Sales for the month of October (21) were 91% higher than the sales a year ago (11) and 31% higher than the sales reported last month (16). There is a 1.6 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales. There are just 4 distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) in Cloverdale at the present time compared to 9 at this time last year.
Coastal Sonoma: If the rest of Wine Country was slow last month, Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) was hot! Sales for the month of October exploded to 15 compared to 7 a year ago and 6 last month. This is the highest number of new sales in any month in Coastal Sonoma since 20 were sold in March of 2004. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (36) at the end of October 2013 was 12.5% higher than that of a year ago (32) and was slightly lower than last month (39). Sellers and Realtors on the cost must feel good to see this activity. There is a 2.4 months supply of available inventory in the Coastal Sonoma market based on the current pace of new sales. And, it was some of the older inventory selling as days on market on the Coast was 189 days compared to the County in general at 66 days.
Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (42) in Healdsburg at the end of October fell for the third straight month. It is 38% lower than last October (68) and 14% lower than last month (49). New sales (19) were about equal to the new sales (20) in October 2012 and the 20 new sales last month. The number of new sales per month has been generally in the same range (19-28) since January of this year. The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 2.2 months.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (82) in Petaluma at the end of October was a bit ahead of a year ago (77) and it was also just ahead of the inventory last month (80). New sales in Petaluma in October (63) were down 10% from the pace of September (70) and they were 7.4% behind the pace of last October (68). The market remains tight as there is just a 1.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 69 closed homes in Petaluma in October ($475,000) was up 12% from the median closing price in October 2012 ($425,000). Sales in Petaluma in October were closing in a shorter time (52 days) than in any other market in Wine Country.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (283) in Santa Rosa at the end of October eased off from the spike at the end of last month (313). It was was 28% higher than the inventory a year ago (222). Until this month, inventory has risen every month in Santa Rosa since December of last year. New sales in October (212) were 11% off the pace in October 2012 (237) and were 7% behind the pace last month (229). There is only a 1.3 months supply of available homes based on the current sales pace. The current time it takes a home to sell and close in Santa Rosa is only 55 days – the fastest since December 2005. The median price of the 191 homes closed in October in Santa Rosa was $385,000 compared to $325,000 a year ago – an 18% increase. Distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) make up just 8% of the available inventory and 16% of new sales for the month.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (49) in Sebastopol at the end of October fell to levels experienced last December and January. Inventory was 29% lower than that of October 2012 (69) and it was 225 below that of last month (63). There were 28 new sales for the month of October in Sebastopol. This is 22% below the new sales in October 2012 (42) and 10% below the 31 sales last month. The supply of inventory based on the current sales pace fell to just 1.8 months. Certainly, the market has slowed here. There are only two distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) available in Sebastopol. This market is essentially out of distressed properties at the current time.
Sonoma Valley: There were 117 available homes in inventory at the end of October in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood). The inventory is slightly below the inventory a year ago (123) and also below the inventory last month (125). The new sales (52) in the Sonoma Valley are 5.5% below the pace in October 2012 (55) and 5% below the pace of last month (59). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market dropped again to 64 days in October compared to 93 days last month and 105 days a year ago. There are only two distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) available in Sonoma at the present time.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (47) in Windsor at the end of October is 104% higher than a year ago (23) and it is slightly higher than last month (44). New sales in October (32) were 30% below the pace in October 2012 (46) and were a bit ahead of the pace last month (29). There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. There are 3 distressed properties (bank-owned, short sale or foreclosure) in inventory in Windsor at the end of October, so the hangover in inventory is predominantly conventional sales.
Napa County: The available number of homes and condominiums for sale (389) in Napa County at the end of October dropped after climbing for seven straight months. The inventory is just 1% lower than it was in October 2012 (394) and 12% lower than last month (442). New sales (137) fell for the fourth straight month. They were 6% lower than last month (146) and were about equal to the new sales in October of last year (140). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the existing sales pace. The median price of the 118 homes closed in October in Napa County ($488,000) was 20% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($408,000). Days On Market was 93 compared to 99 a year ago.
Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) currently make up only 6% of the inventory. However, fourteen new distressed listings were added in the month. Currently there are 22 distressed properties in inventory compared to 35 a year ago. Distressed properties make up 7% of the new sales and 12% of the closings in October. There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory of distressed properties based on the current sales pace – so, these sales have slowed down.
Napa County Luxury Homes: Sales of luxury homes (sales price in excess of $900,000) in Napa County enjoyed a strong growth in activity in the last twelve months. There has been a 18% increase in the number of luxury homes sold – 204 from 11/1/12 to 10/31/13 compared to 173 from 11/1/11 to 10/31/12. There were 18 new luxury home sales in October 2013 compared to 10 in October 2012.
Napa: There were 204 available homes in inventory at the end of October in the City of Napa. This is the first month over month fall in inventory since February of this year. The inventory is about equal to the inventory a year ago (209) and 13% below the inventory last month (235). There were 93 new sales for the month in the City of Napa. This was about equal to the pace of last month (96) and was 15% behind the sales pace in October 2012 (109). There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. Like in the County, the median price of the 74 homes sold in the City of Napa in October ($485,000) was 20% higher than the median price in October 2012 ($405,000). Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) represent just 5% of the inventory and 4% of the new sales for the month.
Up Valley Napa County: There were 151 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of October in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville). This is 5% lower than the inventory a year ago (159) and 10% below the inventory of last month (167). There were 24 new sales for the month. This is 140% ahead of the pace of last October (10) and a bit ahead of the pace of new sales last month (20). New sales in Up Valley have ranged from 20 to 29 per month over the past six months. There is a 6.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This is the highest level of inventory to sales in all of the Wine Country. Days on market for the sold properties in Up Valley last month was 149 days compared to 93 days for the County of Napa as a whole.
Closings: For the month of October, the following agents enjoyed success in closing transactions:
In our Cloverdale office: Jane and Ron Pavelka enjoyed a Wine Country Group leading six closings for the month.
In our Healdsburg office: Diane Harris, Kent Mitchell, Gina Cleaver, Michael Downes, Bernie Curley, Linda Farwell, Betty Hagedon, Perry Hardin and Elissa Morrash each had a closing.
In our Napa office: Stacey Oftedal and Shawn Daee enjoyed two closings each and Billy Birdsong, Nick Simon, Adam Ghisletta, Charles Laughlin and Michael Senn each had a closing.
In our Santa Rosa office: The team of Christen Hamilton and Don Hamilton and Charles Himes enjoyed three closings; Tommy Apostolides, Mark Payne and Carlos Rivas each enjoyed two closings; and Jill Rake had a closing.
In our Sebastopol office: Liz Uribe enjoyed two closings and Pam Buda and Norbert Tenenbaum each had a closing.
In our Sonoma office: Sheila Deignan enjoyed four closings; Isaac Raboy of Mason McDuffie Commercial Real Estate had a great $3,000,000 commercial closing; Diane Litchfield and Erick Rothfeld had two closings each; and Mary Chelton, Erin George, Herb Heil, Frank Lazzarotto and Leo Merle each had a closing.
And, in our St. Helena office: Liz Manfree had two closings for this period.
Congratulations to all!