Wine Country Real Estate Trends in November 2017

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for November 2017

Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed it’s anniversary in the month of November. To celebrate, we had an awesome month with 65 closings in November 2017 compared to 37 last month. In November, we closed homes with a total value of $34 million compared to $23 last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in November was $523,077.

BHGRE|WCG currently has 36 pending sales with a value of $27 million dollars. We have 57 active listings with a value of $89 million dollars. Our average listing price is $1,561,000. This is the highest average listing price that we have ever had.

 Wine Country Real Estate Results for November 2017:

 Fire recovery progresses:  Things that we’ve noticed in the past thirty days relating to wildfire recovery:

  • We sold a $1.3 million dollar home with multiple offers where the seller (our client) accepted a lower price than the highest price offered because they wanted to sell to a family who had lost their home in the wildfires.
  • We sold a $1.75 million dollar home in the middle of one of the fire zones.  For us, this was a test as to whether buyers were going to be deterred because of the surrounding fire damage, nearby destroyed homes and the fact that they will be living in a de facto “construction zone” for at least several years.
  • We heard from a client who lost their home in Coffey Park that they are taking their insurance proceeds and are moving out of the area. They sold their empty lot to a builder.
  • We heard of a home that had been for sale for $3,900,000 being rented by an insurance company for their clients for $15,000 per month as temporary replacement housing.

 Sonoma County:   The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of November continued to drop – partly a seasonal adjustment and partly due to fire related matters. The inventory stands at 535 and is down 12% from the inventory last month (613). It is down 18.7% from the inventory in November 2016 (658). New sales (400) in November were 22.5% behind that of last month (516) and were 22% ahead of the pace of November 2016 (328). This is a record low number of homes for any November in the history of BAREIS MLS records. There is just a 1.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 37 (Rohnert Park) to 116 (Healdsburg) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 63 days. The median price of homes closed in November in Sonoma County was $630,000.  This is the highest median price that the County has ever experienced. It is a 15% increase over the median price in November 2016 ($549,000). We expect that the loss of homes in the fires will put upwards pressure on prices in most locations throughout the County. The counter to that may be the pending tax bill in Congress which may have downward pressure on home values.

Sonoma County Luxury Homes:  About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,600,000). There has been a slight increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (186) from 12/1/16 to 11/30/17 compared to 182 from 12/1/15 to 11/30/16. The inventory of Luxury Homes dropped another 38 homes (22%) from last month. It appears that a number of these Luxury Homes are being withdrawn from the sales market and rented to those who lost their homes in the fires. The pace of new sales (25) in November this year was 177% higher than the pace of a year ago (9) and was 4% ahead of the pace last month (24) – so some of these homes are being purchased by fire victims as well. The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 131 days this November compared to 174 days a year ago. This compares to 63 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in November. There is a 5.3 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.3 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market.

Cloverdale:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (21) in Cloverdale at the end of November is 50% ahead of the 14 homes in inventory in November last year and it is 19% below the 26 homes last month. There were 9 new sales in Cloverdale in November. This compares to 9 sales in November 2016 and 20 new sales last month. There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This compares to a 1.3 months supply last month.

Coastal Sonoma:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of November (28) is 17% ahead of the inventory a year ago (24) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (30). There were 10 new home sales for the month of November compared to 3 a year ago and 5 last month. There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. This is a relatively low number for Coastal Sonoma. Days on Market for the 7 homes that closed in November was 72 days.

Healdsburg Trends:  There were 66 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 15% below the inventory in November 2016 (78) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (76). There were 20 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 400% ahead of the number of sales in November 2016 (4) (this was an anomaly – the average number of sales over the past twelve months was approximately 20 per month) and it is 33% below the pace last month (30). The months of available inventory is 3.3 months based on the current sales pace. Days on Market for the 19 homes that closed in November was 116 days.

Oakmont:  There were 11 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of November. This is 31% lower than in November 2016 (16) and it is 57% ahead of the inventory last month (7). There were 12 new sales for the month. This is about equal to the sales pace of a year ago (11) and 40% below the pace of last month (20). There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $750,000. The median price was $725,000 for the 20 homes closed in November – an increase of 22% over the price of $595,000 in November 2016.

Petaluma:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of November (38) is 34.5% below the inventory in November 2016 (58) and it is 19% below the inventory last month (47). There were 37 new sales for the month. This is 12% below the number of new sales in November 2016 (42) and is 38% below the 60 sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has one month of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 51 homes that closed in November was $730,000. This is 6.5% ahead of the median price last November ($685,000).

Rohnert Park:  For the past thirteen months, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park have outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. There were 37 new sales in November compared to 27 last month and 36 in November 2016. The inventory began the month at 14 homes and ended the month at 13 homes. There is just 0.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($460,000) of the 23 homes closed in November was 4% lower than the median price a year ago ($478,000). In November 2010, the median price was $271,000.

Russian River:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November (41) in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) is 52% ahead of the level of November 2016 (27) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (47). There were 16 new sales for the month of November. This is about equal to the pace in November 2016 (15) and 38% lower than the pace last month (25). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price ($483,000) of the 27 homes that closed in November was 10% higher than the median price a year ago ($438,000). In November 2010, the median price was $241,000.

Santa Rosa:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of November (132) is 38% below the inventory of a year ago (214) and it is 3% below the inventory last month (136). New sales in November (172) were 22% ahead of the pace of last November (141) and they were 21% below the pace last month (217). There is a 0.8 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 223 homes closed in November in Santa Rosa was $600,000 compared to $508,000 a year ago – an 18% increase.  This is the highest median price ever recorded in Santa Rosa. One must believe that the wildfires had an impact on these higher sales prices.

Sebastopol Trends:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November (39) in Sebastopol is 8% ahead of the level of November 2016 (36) and it is 13% below the inventory last month (45). There were 19 new sales for the month of November. This is 12% ahead of the pace in November 2016 (17) and 44% below the pace last month (45). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 20 homes that closed in Sebastopol in November went from listing to pending in 79 days.

Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (94) at the end of November in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) dropped dramatically from last month. At the end of November there were 33 fewer homes available (-26%) than at the end of October. There were thirteen homes withdrawn in the top quartile of the market (asking price exceeding $3,000,000) in the month either taken off the market for the holidays/selling season, or rented – most likely to fire victims. Accordingly, the inventory was 4% below that of last November (98). There were 41 new sales for the month. This is 52% ahead of the pace of sales in November 2016 (27) and it is slightly higher than the pace of last month (38). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 56% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of November started at $2,300,000. This is down from $3,000,000 at the end of October. Twenty-three homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 33 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 23 homes available in this quartile in November compared to 20 a year ago. There were seven new sales in the top quartile in November. There is currently a 3.3 months supply of inventory in the top quartile based upon the current sales pace.  This is a much lower supply than it has been.

Windsor:  The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of November (14) is 44% below the inventory in November 2016 (25) and it is equal to the 14 homes last month. There were 21 new sales for the month. This is 17% ahead of the pace of sales in November 2016 (18) and it is 45% below the pace of last month (38). There was a flurry in home purchases in October that subsided in November. There is still just a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 29 homes closed in November in Windsor was 52 days. The median price ($610,000) of the homes closed in November was 11% higher than the median price a year ago ($550,000).

Napa County:  The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of November (300) is slightly below the inventory in November 2016 (306) and it is 6% below the inventory last month (318). New sales (108) were 6% ahead of the pace of last year (102) and 7% below the pace of last month (116). There is a 2.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace – trending towards a balanced market. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 79 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 106 homes closed in November in Napa County ($655,000) was 8% higher than the median price of a year ago ($608,000). The median has generally flucuated between $580,000 and $660,000 over the past year.

Napa County Luxury Homes:  If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,300,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (62) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is slightly lower for the period 12/1/16 to 11/30/17 compared to 12/1/15 to 11/30/16 (64 homes). There were 74 luxury homes in inventory at the end of November 2017 compared to 69 at the end of November 2016. There were 2 new Luxury Home sales last month resulting in a 37 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.8 months supply for the County as a whole.

American Canyon:  There were 20 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in American Canyon. This is 33% ahead of the inventory a year ago (15) and it is 13% below the supply last month (23). New sales (17) were 42% ahead of the pace of November 2016 (12) and they were 112% ahead of the pace of last month (8). There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in American Canyon is currently 69 days. The median price of the 9 homes that closed in American Canyon in November was $417,000. This is in line with the median price over the past 12 months that has ranged from the low $400,000s to the mid $500,000s.

 Napa:  There were 160 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of November in the City of Napa. This is 7% lower than the inventory a year ago (172) and it is 5% lower than the supply last month (168). New sales (83) were 26% ahead of the pace of November 2016 (66) and they were 11% ahead of the pace of last month (75). There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 74 homes that closed in Napa in November was $658,000. This is 8% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in November 2016 ($610,000).

Up Valley Napa County:  New sales in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) fell dramatically in November. There were just 8 new sales in the month compared to 21 a year ago (-62%) and 29 last month (-72%). There is now a 12.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to 3.6 a month ago. We don’t see an apparent reason for this fall off in sales, but we’ll continue to watch it. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November (97) is about equal to the level of 96 in November 2016 and it is 8% below the level last month (105). The Days on Market for the 20 closings last month was 132 days. Approximately 65% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,300,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (48 homes). Neither of the two luxury home sales in Napa County last month were in the Up Valley market.