Wine Country Real Estate Trends in October 2014
NorthBay Economic Summit
I attended a North Bay Economic Summit today (10-15-14). A few things that jumped out at me are:
- Interest rates will be rising – perhaps as much as ¾ to 1% in the coming 12 months. This will likely provide a stimulus to the real estate market.
- The banks and credit unions continue to hold a huge ($26 trillion) amount of their lendable money in the Federal Reserve Bank. Prior to the onset of the recession in 2008, the highest historical level of these reserves was $16 billion. There continues to be a huge amount of cash that would otherwise be available to the economy off the playing field.
- The median price of the homes sold in Marin County in September was $921,000. In Sonoma County it was $475,000 and in Napa County it was $584,000. Logically, there will be movement from Marin to the Wine Country as this margin continues to spread.
Wine Country Group Results for September 2014:
The Wine Country Group had 60 closings in September 2014 compared to 56 a year ago and 70 last month. In September, we closed homes with a total value of $38.4 million compared to $38.5 million a year ago and $47.8 last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in September was $639,184 compared to $687,364 a year ago and $682,315 last month. The Sonoma and St. Helena offices led this month with 12 closings each while the Sebastopol office had 10 sales and the Santa Rosa office had 9. The St. Helena office led in dollar volume with $9.7 million in closings while the Sonoma office had $9.2 million and the Sebastopol office had $5.8 million.
The Wine Country Group opened 81 new escrows for the month compared to 69 a year ago and 97 last month. The Group had 27 new listings compared to 28 in August 2013 and 31 last month. We currently have 101 pending sales with a value of $70 million dollars. We have 127 active listings with a value of $122 million dollars. Our average listing price is $964,000 – about equal to the $963,000 a year ago.
Wine Country Real Estate results for September 2014:
Sonoma County: The inventory of single-family homes and condominiums for sale in Sonoma County at the end of September stood at 928 compared to 995 last month and 947 a year ago. This is a 2% decrease on a year over year basis and a 7% decrease from last month. As suggested by August results, inventory seems to have plateaued in August and it is reasonable to expect it to continue to moderate going into fall and winter. New sales (495) in September were 8% ahead of that of last September (458) and were 3% below that of last month (509). New sales have sustained a healthy level pace in this range over the past five months. Closed sales for the month of September (484) were the highest for any September since September 2008 when there were 509 closings. There is just a 1.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in Sonoma County (Days on Market) is 65 days compared to 66 a year ago. The median price of homes closed in September in Sonoma County was $475,000. This is a 12% increase over the median price in September 2013 ($425,000). The current median price is still 19% below the peak median price for the County ($589,000) recorded in June 2005.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: Sales of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $900,000) in Sonoma County have enjoyed a strong growth in the last twelve months. There has been a 25% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (478) from 10/1/13 to 9/30/14 compared to 383 from 10/1/12 to 9/30/13. There were 252 luxury properties in inventory at the end of September compared to 264 last month and 268 a year ago – so perhaps the inventory is leveling off. Days on Market for closed Luxury sales dropped from 117 days last year to 79 days this year.
Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (41) at the end of September 2014 was 8% ahead of that of a year ago (38) and was also slightly ahead of the inventory last month (39). There were 15 new homes sold in September 2014 compared to 12 a year ago and 23 last month. There is a 2.7 months supply of available inventory in Cloverdale based on the current pace of new sales.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of September (30) was 23% below the inventory a year ago (39) and also 21% below the inventory last month (38). There were 9 new home sales for the month of September compared to 4 a year ago and 7 last month. There is a 3.3 months supply of available inventory in the Coastal Sonoma market based on the current pace of new sales. This is a relatively low “Months of Inventory” for the Coastal Sonoma market. The Days on Market of the 8 homes that closed in September was a 74 days compared to 95 days a year ago and 84 days last month.
Healdsburg Trends: There were 74 homes and condominiums available in Healdsburg at the end of September compared to 63 last September and 84 in August. There were 22 new sales for the month. This is 16% ahead of the pace in September 2013 (19) and is 57% ahead of the pace last month (14). The market had a jump in sales in Healdsburg last month. The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace fell to 3.4 months. The Days on Market for the 16 homes closed in September was 97 days compared to 76 days a year ago and 101 days last month.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (80) in Petaluma at the end of September was 13% below the inventory of last month (92) and it was equal to the inventory in September 2013 (80). New sales in September (49) fell 36% from the pace of last month (77) and were 7,5% behind the 53 new sales in September 2013. There is just a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 69 homes that closed in September was $543,000. This is 17% ahead of the median last September ($465,000). Days on market for the closed sales for the month was 46 compared to 57 days a year ago. This is the lowest “Days on Market” in all of Wine Country.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of September (302) was 3.5% below that of a year ago (313) and was 5% below the inventory last month (317). New sales in September (200) were 6.4% ahead of the pace in September 2013 (182) and they were equal to the pace of last month (199). There is only a 1.5 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 156 homes closed in September in Santa Rosa was $430,000 compared to $365,000 a year ago – a 18% increase. The Days on Market for the homes closed in September was 54 days compared to 56 days a year ago.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (45) in Sebastopol at the end of September was 29% lower than that of September 2013 (63). It was equal to that of last month (46). Inventory remains very low in Sebastopol. There were 30 new sales for the month of September. This is 7% ahead of the pace in September 2013 (28) and 15% ahead of the pace of the 26 last month. There is a 1.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market of the 25 closed homes in Sebastopol in September was 66 days compared to 63 days a year ago.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (121) in September in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) reversed a three-month trend and rose on a month over month basis. It was 3% below the level of last September (125) but was 10% ahead of last month (110). There were 51 new sales for the month. This is equal to the pace of sales in September 2013 and it is 6% ahead of the pace last month (48). There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The Days on Market for the 46 closed sales in Sonoma in September was 96 days compared to 93 a year ago and 56 last month.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (46) in Windsor at the end of September increased slightly from the 45 homes last month and was 4.5% ahead of the 44 homes in September 2013. Inventory has increased from just 20 homes in April to 46 at the end of September. New sales in Windsor in September (27) were 12.5% ahead of the sales in September 2013 (24) and were about equal to the 28 sales last month. There is just a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 28 sales that closed in September in Windsor was $482,000. This is 5% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($460,000).
Napa County: Across all of Wine Country – the strong median closing price in Napa County stands out as a statistic for this month. The median price of homes closed in September in Napa County ($584,000) was 28% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($456,000) and was the highest since November of 2007. The current median price is just 13% below the peak median price for the County ($675,000) recorded in June 2006. The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County in September settled back after a seven-month climb. The inventory (425) is 4% lower than it was in September 2013 (442) and 6% lower than last month (450). New sales (131) were 11% higher than the pace last year (118) and 9% ahead of the pace last month (120). There is a 3.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The “Days on Market” for the 112 homes closed in September was 97 days compared to 77 days a year ago and 70 days last month. We’ll have to watch to see if the selling cycle lengthens as we go further into the fall.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $1,800,000 in Napa County at this time. The Sales of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,800,000) in Napa County have increased 51% for the period 10/1/13 to 9/30/14 (89) compared to 10/1/12 to 9/30/13 (59). There were 111 luxury homes in inventory at the end of September 2014 compared to 118 at the end of September 2013. There were 8 new Luxury Home sales in September 2014 compared to 4 in September 2013 and 7 last month. There is a 13.9 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 29.5 months supply last year. The Days on Market for the 6 closings of Luxury Homes in September was 353 days compared to 113 days a year ago. Clearly – some older inventory is selling.
Napa: There were 220 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of September in the City of Napa. This is 6.4% lower than the inventory a year ago (235) and it is 13% below the supply last month (252). Inventory fell for the first time after eight months of increase from a low of 153 homes in December 2013. New sales (91) were 20% ahead of the pace of September 2013 (76) and they were 12% ahead of the pace of last month (81). There is a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The “Days on Market” for the 68 homes closed in September in the City of Napa was 76 days compared to 69 days in September 2013. The median price of the homes that closed in Napa in September was $501,000. This is 11% ahead of the median price in September 2013 ($450,000). The median price in September remains 23% below the peak median price in the City of Napa ($650,000) recorded in August 2006.
Up Valley: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale was 147 homes at the end of September 2014 compared to 146 last month in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville). Inventory was 12% below the level of 167 in September 2013 but has been steady over the past six months. There were 28 new sales for the month compared to 28 last month and 17 a year ago – so the sales pace remains steady also. With this sales pace there is a 5.3 months supply of inventory compared to 9.8 months a year ago. The “Days on Market” for the 35 closings last month was 147 days compared to 119 days in September a year ago and 97 days for the County as a whole. The Up Valley market continues to be a healthy market.
Closings: The following agents enjoyed closings for the period from September 1 to September 30, 2014:
In our Bodega Bay office, Barbara and Paul Cronick had two closings.
In our Cloverdale office: Ron and Jane Pavelka enjoyed four closings.
In our Healdsburg office: Diane Harris, Leslie Kipp, Ken Knight, Perry Hardin, Jose Hernandez and Steven Thorpe each had a closing.
In our Napa office: Tressa Anderson, Billy Birdsong, Cynthia Parker, Nick Simone and Shawn Daee each had a closing.
In our Petaluma office: JoAnn Claeyssens and Randy Haak each had a closing.
In our Santa Rosa office: Ryan Styles had two closings and Tommy Apostolides, Charles Himes, Lindsay Ehrlicher, Donald Hamilton, Jill Rake, Amy Leyack, Mark Payne and Keith Carinalli each had a closing.
In our Sebastopol office: Jeff Seligson and Marita De Souza had two closings each and Jeanne Woods, Norbert Tenenbaum, Liz Uribe and Eric Lucas each had a closing.
In our Sonoma office: Sheila Deignan and Erin George had three closings each; Tiffany Knef and Mara Kahn each had two closings and Diane Litchfield, Leo Merle and Patty Keiser each had a closing.
And, in our St. Helena office: Linda Alioto enjoyed a Wine Country Group leading 7 closings (5 listings and 2 buyer sales) and Liz Manfree and David Barker had two closings each.
Congratulations to all