Wine Country Real Estate Trends in February 2017
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate FUSION – 2017.
About 15 of us in the Wine Country Group traveled to Las Vegas at the end of February and joined 1,500 other agents, brokers and owners at BHGRE’s FUSION – 2017. It was a great event and we’ve been spreading the word about what a great learning and networking opportunity FUSION presents. We’re looking forward to the next one.
Below is a link to my notes from some of the presentations in case you are interested.
https://www.winecountrygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/notes-from-fusion-e28093-2017.doc
Wine Country Real Estate results for February 2017:
Sonoma County: The fifteen-month graph of Sonoma County inventory, sales and closings, looks like a near-perfect bell curve. The highs in inventory (946 and 912) units in June and July of 2016 are in the center of the page with units building up in the months before and falling in the months after. Sales and closings follow the same pattern. The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County fell slightly in February (495 units) and is 8% below the inventory in February 2016 (537) and is down 5% from the inventory last month (521). Inventory should start climbing the curve next month. New sales (359) in February jumped 25% ahead of the pace of last month (287) and were slightly below the pace of February 2016 (370). There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. In comparison, in February 2008 there was over a 8.5 months supply of inventory and the available inventory was 5.6 times higher than it is now (2,801 homes). The time it takes to sell a home throughout Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 55 to 80 days. The median price of homes closed in February in Sonoma County was $548,000. This is a 7% increase over the median price in February 2016 ($511,000). The current median price is just 7% below the peak median price for the County ($589,000) recorded in June 2005. So, it can be said that close to all of the value lost through the recession (2007 to 2011) has been regained in the Sonoma County market.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,300,000). There has been a 16% increase in the number of Luxury Homes closed (304) from 3/1/16 to 2/28/17 compared to 263 from 3/1/15 to 2/28/16. The pace of new sales (24) in February this year was 60% ahead of the pace of a year ago (15). There were 125 luxury properties in inventory at the end of February compared to 124 last month and 128 a year ago. The Days on Market for Luxury Home sales was 183 days this February compared to 190 days a year ago. This compares to 78 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in February. There is a 5.2 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 1.4 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. On a statistical basis, it continues to be a “Buyers Market” in the high end.
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (14) in Cloverdale at the end of February was 44% below the 25 homes in inventory in February 2016 and it was slightly below the 15 homes last month. Sales returned a bit to normal as there were 17 new sales in Cloverdale in February. This is 21% ahead of the 14 sales in February 2016 and well ahead of the 4 new sales last month. There is just a 0.8 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.
Coastal Sonoma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point) at the end of February (23) was 28% ahead of the inventory a year ago (18) and slightly below the inventory last month (24). There were 4 new home sales for the month of February compared to 9 a year ago and 5 last month. There is a 5.8 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace.
Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Healdsburg at the end of February (54) was 35% ahead of the inventory in February 2016 (40) and was down 5% from the inventory last month (57). This continues to be a relatively high level of seasonal inventory for Healdsburg. There were 17 new sales in Healdsburg for the month. This is 19% below the 21 sales in February 2016 and it is equal to the pace last month (18). The months of available inventory based on the current sales pace is 3.2 months.
Oakmont: There were 19 homes in inventory in the community of Oakmont at the end of February. This is 14% lower than in February 2016 (22) and 19% ahead of the inventory last month (16). There were 12 new sales for the month. This is 33% below the sales pace of a year ago (18) and about equal to the pace of last month (12). There is a 1.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price for homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the mid-$500’s up to $675,000. The median price was $696,000 for the 12 closings last month.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of February (43) is 22% below the inventory in February 2016 (55) and it is 23% below the inventory last month (56). There were 54 new sales for the month. This is 50% ahead of the number of new sales in February 2016 (36) and is 20% ahead of the 45 sales last month. The Petaluma market has been volatile and currently has just 0.8 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 35 homes that closed in February was $651,000. This is 13% higher than the median last February ($576,000).
Rohnert Park and Cotati: Once again, the monthly sales in Rohnert Park-Cotati outpaced the level of inventory at the beginning and end of the month. The sales pace has been falling, however, since mid 2016 – probably because of the lack of inventory there. There were 29 new sales in February compared to 33 last month and 37 in February 2016. Inventory began the month at 18 homes and ended the month at 15 homes. There is just a one-half months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. This is the lowest level of inventory for Rohnert Park/Cotati since our charts were developed. By comparison, in February 2008, there were 17 times more homes on the market here – 261. The median price ($483,000) closed in February was 8% higher than the median price a year ago ($445,000). In February 2009, the median price was $250,000.
Santa Rosa: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Santa Rosa at the end of February (173) was slightly below the inventory of a year ago (183) and was equal to the inventory last month (173). New sales in February (141) were 31% ahead of the pace of last month (108) and they were 9% below the pace of last February (155). There is only a 1.2 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 102 homes closed in February in Santa Rosa was $517,000 compared to $474,000 a year ago – a 9% increase. The median has ranged from $475,000 to $525,000 over the past twelve months.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February (27) was about equal to the level of February 2016 (26) and it was also about equal to the inventory last month (28). By comparison, there were 105 homes in inventory in Sebastopol in February 2008. There were 11 new sales for the month of February. This is equal to the pace in February 2016 and slightly below the pace last month (12). There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (73) at the end of February in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) was about equal to the inventory in February 2016 (72) and it was also about equal to the inventory of last month (72). There were 41 new sales for the month. This is 32% ahead of the pace of sales in February 2016 (31) and it is 78% ahead of the pace of last month (23). There is a 1.8 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. 42% of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above while 29% of the new sales (12) were priced at $1,000,000 or more. The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of February started at $$1,900,000. 41 homes sold in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 52 in the twelve months prior to that. There were 18 homes available in this quartile in February compared to 20 a year ago. There is an 18 months supply of inventory based on there only being one sale in this price range in February. We expect high-end sales to pick up in the coming months.
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of February (16) is the lowest since February of 2015. It is 33% below the inventory in February 2016 (24) and it is 16% lower than the 19 homes last month. There were 24 new sales in Windsor in February. This is 17% lower than the sales in February 2016 (29) and 20% higher than the sales last month (20). There is a 0.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 19 sales that closed in February in Windsor was $508,000. This is equal to the median price ($509,000) of the homes closed last February.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of February (238) is slightly below the inventory in February 2016 (244) and is equal to the inventory last month (237). The inventory in February 2008 (1,009) was four times higher than it is now. New sales (104) were 14% below the pace last year (121) and 8% ahead of the pace of last month (96). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. In February 2008, there was a 16.5 months supply of inventory. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently ranging between 60 to 120 days depending on price and location. The median price of the 69 homes closed in February in Napa County ($649,000) was 3% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($628,000). The median has generally ranged between $580,000 and $650,000 over the past year. The current median price remains 4% below the peak median price for the County ($675,000) recorded in June 2006 so, as in Sonoma County and south through Marin into San Francisco and the Peninsula, most of the home equity lost in the recession (2007 to 2011) has been regained.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $1,900,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (86) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $1,900,000) in Napa County is 21% ahead for the period 3/1/16 to 2/28/17 compared to 3/1/15 to 2/28/16 (71 homes). There were 59 luxury homes in inventory at the end of February 2017 compared to 70 at the end of February 2016. There were 9 Luxury Home closings last month resulting in a 6.6 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 2.4 months supply for the County as a whole.
Napa: There were 140 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in the City of Napa. This is 10% higher than the inventory a year ago (127) and it is equal to the supply last month. New sales (75) were slightly below the pace of February 2016 (77) and they were 21% ahead of the pace of last month (62). There is a 1.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 42 homes that closed in Napa in February was $573,000. This is 9% below the median price of the homes closed in February 2016 ($625,000). The median price is 12% below the peak median price in the City of Napa ($650,000) recorded in February 2006.
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of February 2017 (69) was 9% below the level of 76 in February 2016 and it was 6% ahead of the level last month (65). There were 14 new sales for the month compared to 23 a year ago and 15 last month. It appears some of the homes taken off the market over the holidays remain on the sidelines. There is now a 4.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 14 closings last month was 94 days. Approximately one half of the Luxury Market (price in excess of $1,900,000) inventory in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (29 homes).