Wine Country Real Estate Trends in February 2020
The Impact of Coronavirus on the Wine Country Real Estate Markets: The past couple of weeks have presented new challenges for our entire nation. Our small world of “Wine Country Real Estate” is being impacted like every sector of the economy. We are told that our smaller communities are at less risk to the flu than the major urban centers. Still, we must be aware and vigilant.
The California Association of Realtors (CAR) just issued (3/12/20) an update from the industry’s point of view. CAR will be revising its real estate market forecasts lower in the coming weeks. They expect the revisions to be “modest” unless the virus outbreak accelerates beyond current expectations. There are a number of reasons that they expect the market to be softer and there are offsetting effects that will mitigate some of the downside movement. Here are a few:
- Wealth effects will impact top end of the market
- Recession risks increase if consumers lose confidence
- Macro economic data remains resilient thus far
- Turbulent financial markets make real estate relatively more attractive.
- Mortgage interest rates are likely to remain low
For a full look at CAR’s report, please visit: https://www.car.org/knowledge/pubs/newsletters/newsline/covid31120
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group Results for February 2020
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate|Wine Country Group enjoyed 45 closings in February 2020 compared to 35 last February and 14 last month. In February, we closed homes with a total value of $29 million compared to $21 million last year and $10 million last month. The average selling price of the properties sold by the Wine Country Group in February was $633,622.
BHGRE|WCG currently has 40 pending sales with a value of $22 million dollars. We have 94 active listings with a value of $86 million dollars. Our average listing price is $915,000.
Wine Country Real Estate Trends for February 2020
Sonoma County: As those around here know, we had no rain in the Northern California area in the entire month of February. This is not good for many reasons, but it did allow real estate buyers and sellers to conduct business throughout the month.
The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of February stands at 760. This is 12% ahead of the inventory in February 2019 (680) and it is 7% ahead of the inventory last month (708). New sales (386) in Sonoma County in February were 32% ahead of the pace of February 2019 (293) and they were 25% ahead of the pace last month (309). There is a two months supply of inventory in Sonoma County based on the existing sales pace. The time it takes to sell a home in the various areas of Sonoma County (Days on Market) varies from 46 (Rohnert Park) to 159 (Coastal Sonoma) days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The average Days on Market for the County as a whole is 74 days. The median price of the 282 homes closed in February in Sonoma County was $606,000. This is 3% higher than the median price in February 2019 ($590,000). Over the past four months, Sonoma County homes are selling at roughly 94% of their original list price.
Sonoma County Luxury Homes: About one quarter of the inventory in Sonoma County can be characterized as Luxury Homes (listing price in excess of $1,300,000). There has been a 14% decrease in the number of Luxury Homes closed (360) from 3/1/19 to 2/29/20 compared to 420 closings in the period 3/1/18 to 2/28/19. The inventory of luxury homes (186) is 22% ahead of the inventory in February 2019 (152 homes). The pace of new sales (29) in February this year is 71% ahead of the pace of a year ago (17) and it is 26% ahead of the pace last month (23). The Days on Market for Luxury Home closings was 103 days this February compared to 66 days a year ago. This compares to 74 Days on Market for all closed properties in the County in February. There is a 6.4 months supply of inventory of luxury properties based upon the current sales pace compared to a 2.0 months supply in the overall Sonoma County market. Over the past four months, Sonoma County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 90% of original list price.
Graphic Sonoma County February 2020
Cloverdale: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (26) in Cloverdale at the end of February is equal to the inventory in February 2019 (26). It is slightly ahead of the inventory last month (25). There were 12 new sales in Cloverdale in February. This compares to 6 sales in February 2019 and 7 new sales last month. There is a 2.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 5 homes that closed in February was 87 days.
Coastal Sonoma: There are 16 homes and condominiums available in Coastal Sonoma (Bodega Bay, Jenner and Stewart’s Point). This compares to 17 homes in inventory in February 2019 and 17 homes last month. There were 5 new sales in February compared to 4 a year ago and 6 last month. There is now a 3.2 months supply of inventory in Coastal Sonoma based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 6 homes that closed in February was 159 days.
Healdsburg Trends: There are 74 homes and condominiums available for sale in Healdsburg at the end of the month. This is 28% above the inventory in February 2019 (58) and it is 32% ahead of the inventory last month (56). New sales in February (16) were 33% ahead of the pace of sales in February 2019 (12) and they were 60% ahead of the sales pace last month (10). The months of available inventory is now 4.6 months based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 10 homes that closed in February was 153 days.
Oakmont: There are 41 homes and condominiums available in Oakmont at the end of February. This is 32% above the inventory in February 2019 (31) and it is 5% below the inventory last month (43). New sales (20) were the highest since last spring. They were 100% ahead of the sales pace of a year ago (10) and 18% ahead of the pace of last month (17). There is a 2.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Oakmont market is heating up relative to where it was over this past summer. The median price of the homes sold in Oakmont in the past year has ranged from the high-$500,000’s up to $800,000. The median price was $533,000 for the 14 homes that closed in February. This is relatively low for Oakmont. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 115 days. Perhaps the news that the Oakmont Association completed the purchase of the two golf courses and clubhouse helped remove uncertainty about that issue in the community.
Petaluma: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Petaluma at the end of February (47) is 11% below the inventory in February 2019 (53) and it is 12% ahead of the inventory last month (42). There were 50 new sales for the month. This is 39% ahead of the 36 sales in February 2019 and it is also 39% ahead of the 36 new sales last month. The Petaluma market currently has 0.9 months of available inventory based on the current sales pace. This is one of the lowest months of inventory for any of our markets in Wine Country. The median price of the 36 homes that closed in February was $697,000. This is 3% ahead of the median price last February ($679,000). The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 54 days.
Rohnert Park: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Rohnert Park at the end of February (30) is 42% below the inventory in February 2019 (52) and it is slightly above the inventory last month (29). There were 34 new sales in Rohnert Park in February. This is 26% ahead of the 27 sales in February 2019 and it is 17% ahead of the sales last month (29). There is a 0.9 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price ($540,000) of the 19 homes and condominiums that closed in February is 4% ahead of the median price a year ago ($519,000). Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 46 days.
Russian River: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in the Russian River area (Guerneville, Monte Rio and Rio Nido) (40) is 11% ahead of the level of February 2019 (36) and it is 25% ahead of the inventory last month (32). There were 9 new sales for the month of February. This is slightly ahead of the pace in February 2019 (8) and it is 50% below the pace last month (18). There is a 4.4 months supply of inventory in the Russian River based on the current sales pace. The median price in the Russian River has ranged from about $400,000 to the low $500,000s over the past year. The median was $450,000 for the 13 homes that closed in February. The homes that closed in the Russian River in February went from listing to pending in 97 days.
Santa Rosa: Thirty-nine percent of the available inventory in Sonoma County is in the City of Santa Rosa. The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the City of Santa Rosa at the end of February (295) is 25% above the inventory of a year ago (236) and it is 2% below the inventory last month (302). New sales in February (154) are 14% ahead of the pace of last February (135) and they are 11% ahead of the pace last month (139). There is a 1.9 months supply of available homes in Santa Rosa based on the current sales pace. The median price of the 128 homes closed in February in Santa Rosa was $578,000 compared to $570,000 a year ago – a 1.4% increase. The Days on Market for the homes that closed in February was 70 days.
Sebastopol Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Sebastopol (36) is 33% above the level of February 2019 (27) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (38). There were 21 new sales for the month of February. This is 91% above the pace in February 2019 (11) and it is 40% above the pace last month (15). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory in Sebastopol based on the current sales pace. The 13 homes that closed in Sebastopol in February went from listing to pending in 110 days.
Sonoma Valley: The number of available homes and condominiums for sale (109) at the end of February in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) is 20% ahead of the inventory last February (91) and it is 31% above the inventory of last month (83). There were 38 new sales for the month. This is 124% ahead of the 17 sales in February 2019 and it is 90% ahead of the 20 sales last month. There is a 2.9 months supply of inventory in Sonoma based on the current pace of sales. The average Days on Market for the 25 properties that closed in the Sonoma Valley in February is 66 days. Fifty-eight percent (63 properties) of the inventory in the Sonoma Valley is priced at $1,000,000 or above and 24% of the new sales (9) in February were priced at over $1,000,000.
The high-end quartile (top 25%) of inventory in the Sonoma Valley at the end of February starts at $2,200,000. This is up from $1,700,000 over the past several months. So, a lot of high-end homes came onto the market in February. Twenty-eight homes closed in the top quartile in the past twelve months compared to 30 in the twelve months prior to that. There are 29 homes available in this quartile in February 2020 compared to 32 a year ago and 14 last month. There were no new sales in the top quartile in February. The closed “luxury” homes over the past year closed at a price ranging from $700 to $1,000 per square foot of building area.
Kenwood: There are 5 available homes for sale in Kenwood as of the end of February. Last February, there were 10 homes in inventory and last month there were just 2. The Kenwood inventory peaked in May and June of last year when there were 19 homes on the market. The average asking price of the five homes currently available in Kenwood is $2,498,000. There were two new sales in February compared to none a year ago and none last month.
Graphic Sonoma Valley February 2020
Windsor: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Windsor at the end of February equals 42 properties. This is slightly above the inventory in February 2019 (40) and it is also slightly above the 40 homes last month. There were 30 new sales for the month. This is 43% ahead of the pace of sales in February 2019 (21) and it is 77% ahead of the pace of last month (17). There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The days on market for the 17 homes that closed in February in Windsor was 48 days. The median price ($679,000) of the homes closed in Windsor in February is 16% above the median price a year ago ($587,000).
Lots for Sale and Sold in Sonoma County: The inventory of available lots for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February is 363 properties. This is 20% below the number of lots in February 2019 (454) and it is 5% below the number of available lots last month (383). There were 45 new lot sales in February. This is equal to the pace of sales in February 2019 and it is 22% ahead of the pace of lot sales last month (37). The vacant lot inventory in Sonoma County is trending downwards. There is an 8.1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 24 lots closed in February was 161 days and the median price was $199,000 – 20% below the median price a year ago ($250,000).
Mobile Homes in Sonoma County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Sonoma County at the end of February is 90 homes. This is 12.5% ahead of the number of mobile homes available in February 2019 (80) and it is 5% ahead of the number of available homes last month (86). There were 35 new mobile home sales in February. This is 17% ahead of the pace of sales in February 2019 (30) and it is 52% above the pace of sales last month (23). There is a 2.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace compared to a 5.3 months supply in December. The average days on market of the 25 mobile homes closed in February was 103 days and the median price was $140,000. This median price is 4% above the median price of $135,000 in February 2019.
Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of February (330) is 6% ahead the inventory in February 2019 (311) and it is 31% ahead of the inventory last month (252). Fifty percent of the inventory in Napa County (166 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above. New sales (92) are 44% ahead of the pace of last year (64) and are 56% ahead of the 59 sales last month. There is a 3.6 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 71 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 54 homes closed in February in Napa County ($646,000) is 3% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($625,000). Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.
Napa County Luxury Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $2,200,000 in Napa County at this time. The number of closings (64) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $2,200,000) in Napa County for the period 3/1/19 to 2/29/20 compared to 75 closings in the period 3/1/18 to 2/28/19. This is a decrease of 15%. There are 85 luxury homes in inventory at the end of February 2020 compared to 52 at the end of February 2019. There were 17 new luxury home listings added in the month of February. There were 8 new Luxury Home sales in February compared to 4 last month. This results in a 11 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to 3.6 months supply for the County as a whole. Days on market for the 3 luxury homes sales in February was 118 days. Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 88% of original list price.
Graphic Napa County February 2020
American Canyon: There are 15 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in American Canyon. This is 44% below the inventory a year ago (27) and it is 200% above the supply last month (5). New sales (6) are 33% below the pace of last year (9) and also 40% below the 10 sales last month. There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the four homes that closed in American Canyon last month was 30 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in February ($453,000) was 3% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($439,000). The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon remains in the $250 to $300 range. It remains a tight market in American Canyon.
Napa: Fifty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There are 176 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of February in the City of Napa. This is 4% below the supply at the end of February 2019 (183) and it is 27% above the inventory at the end of last month (139). New sales (75) were 60% ahead of the pace of February 2019 (47) and they were 83% ahead of the pace of last month (41). There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 44 closings last month was 85 days compared to 66 days in February 2019. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in February was $660,000. This is 4% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in February 2019 ($632,000).
Up Valley Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of February (94) is 31% higher than the level of 72 in February 2019 and it is 21% ahead of the level last month (78). There were 9 new sales in the month compared to 7 a year ago and 7 last month. There is now a 10.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 6 closings last month was 140 days. Approximately 49% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $2,200,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (42 homes). There was a 27% increase in the number of luxury listings in Up Valley last month. There was one luxury home (price in excess of $2,200,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and five new luxury home sales.
Angwin: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Angwin is 11 homes. This compares to 7 homes in February 2019 and 9 homes last month. There was one new sale in the month of February compared to none a year ago and none last month. The average asking price of the 9 homes in inventory in Angwin is $1,384,000.
Mobile Homes in Napa County: The inventory of available mobile homes for sale in Napa County at the end of February is 32 homes. This is essentially equal to the number of mobile homes available in February 2019 (33) and it is also equal to the number of available homes last month (31). There were 13 new mobile home sales in February. This is 18% above the pace of sales in February 2019 (11) and it is 160% above the pace of sales last month (5). Again, the dry weather probably helped with these home sales. There is a 2.5 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The average days on market of the 8 mobile homes closed in February was 117 days and the median price was $237,000. This is 53% above the median price of $155,000 in February 2019.
Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of February stands at 221. This is 31% below the inventory in February 2019 (322) and it is 11% below the inventory last month (249). New sales (67) in Mendocino County in February were 109% ahead of the pace of February 2019 (32) and they were 37% ahead of the pace last month (49). There now is a 3.3 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace. This is the lowest months of inventory in the past year. The average Days on Market for homes sold in Mendocino County in February is 128 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 30 homes closed in February in Mendocino County was $466,000. This is 23% ahead of the median price in February 2019 ($377,000).
Graphic Mendo County February 2020
Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Ukiah is 35 homes. This is the lowest inventory in Ukiah in the past 18 months. It is 46% below the level of February 2019 (65) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (37). There were 21 new sales for the month of February. This is 110% ahead of the number of sales in February 2019 (10) and it is 62% ahead of the sales pace last month (13). There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 13 closings last month was 102 days. The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from 360,000 to $480,000. The median price was $425,000 for the homes that closed in February.
Hopland and Talmage: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Hopland and Talmage is 6 homes. This is 40% below the level of February 2019 (10) and it is slightly below the inventory last month (7). There were 2 new sales for the month of February. This compares to 1 sale in February 2019 and four new sales last month. There is a 3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the two closings last month was 119 days. The median price of the homes sold in Hopland/Talmage in the past year has ranged from $250,000 to $800,000. The median price was $592,000 for the homes that closed in February.
Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of February in Redwood Valley and Calpella is 13 homes. This is 41% below the level of February 2019 (22) and it is 18% above the inventory last month (11). There was one new sale for the month of February. This compares to 3 sales in February 2019 and two new sales last month. There is a 13 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $550,000.
Marin County: Marin County’s inventory (296 homes) is 6% below the 314 homes in February 2019 and it is 42% above the 208 homes in inventory last month. New sales (153) were 6% ahead of the number last February (145) and were 25% ahead of last month (122). This creates a 1.9 months supply. The median price of the 107 homes sold in Marin County in February was $1,085,000. This is the 4% below the median price a year ago ($1,135,000).